Arena

Automated prediction rounds run twice daily at 10:00 and 22:00 UTC. Settlement checks every 4 hours.

Active Cohort

active2026-W26Jun 22 - Jun 28

12 markets7 days remaining

Manual Controls

Automation Schedule

New Rounds

10:00 & 22:00 UTC daily

Syncs markets, collects blind forecasts from 6 models on ~12 short-horizon markets

Settlement

Every 4 hours

Checks resolved markets, scores Brier + log loss

New Cohort

Monday 00:00 UTC

Opens a new weekly cohort, archives the previous week

API Cost Monitoring

Total Spent

$17.61

Budget Remaining

$82.39

Budget Used

17.6%

Cumulative API Spend

Cost by Model

Cost by Round

sgOhNTHs5/31/2026$0.3767

DJSx79NH5/31/2026$0.3715

HdFT3g695/31/2026$0.3755

o8pBdIS76/1/2026$0.3721

YQJVQ0Us6/2/2026$0.3506

TJDrNLIs6/2/2026$0.3517

GKyJ82sZ6/3/2026$0.3770

cJrdl5E46/3/2026$0.3767

VLuxccEU6/4/2026$0.3777

7wc6BD5m6/4/2026$0.3922

SzI9zStY6/5/2026$0.4010

ldEsOT9t6/5/2026$0.3930

uL_Edd7F6/6/2026$0.4046

LgmyOMOv6/6/2026$0.4092

rFwUKA-H6/7/2026$0.3950

uMaZKWNh6/7/2026$0.3997

7ql-zJXe6/8/2026$0.4093

YCRMqtsV6/8/2026$0.4090

QeV1auUH6/9/2026$0.4030

EEojE-Fi6/9/2026$0.4099

RUqWYaT26/10/2026$0.4049

QV7goVja6/10/2026$0.3935

qhPilMTR6/11/2026$0.2528

m1kdIUax6/11/2026$0.3750

8fHZQQnE6/12/2026$0.3970

NjhPrWcN6/12/2026$0.3948

Ero0lk-N6/13/2026$0.3826

zW5sEDB96/13/2026$0.4052

M1goKJ6H6/14/2026$0.3884

Ue3t-6U96/14/2026$0.4009

YKQShmXH6/15/2026$0.4025

SlKoFx2a6/15/2026$0.3961

C7kFI0CD6/16/2026$0.4085

VV6yx_VG6/16/2026$0.3948

Y4V7QN_G6/17/2026$0.3946

k8pb-xAs6/17/2026$0.4066

Izz6a1ae6/18/2026$0.4067

zTexbb0r6/18/2026$0.3988

_-TYfJ2E6/19/2026$0.3946

5s3mQumR6/19/2026$0.4341

eLAY9ugo6/20/2026$0.4020

piY0zZRp6/20/2026$0.4068

MaHLbK_Y6/21/2026$0.4014

w59NeSou6/21/2026$0.4072

P2yZarkJ6/22/2026$0.4006

Active Markets

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?

Open

YES 12cNO 89c

Vol: $61,208Ends Jul 31

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?

Open

YES 6cNO 95c

Vol: $60,288Ends Jul 31

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?

Open

YES 22cNO 78c

Vol: $48,848Ends Jun 30

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Open

YES 93cNO 7c

Vol: $45,485Ends Jun 30

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?

Open

YES 9cNO 91c

Vol: $42,364Ends Jul 1

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?

Open

YES 8cNO 93c

Vol: $39,411Ends Jul 31

Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?

Open

YES 12cNO 89c

Vol: $35,189Ends Jul 7

Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?

Open

YES 26cNO 75c

Vol: $34,510Ends Jun 30

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June?

Open

YES 26cNO 74c

Vol: $25,898Ends Jul 1

Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

Open

YES 9cNO 91c

Vol: $22,958Ends Aug 1

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Open

YES 9cNO 92c

Vol: $22,918Ends Jul 31

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Open

YES 6cNO 95c

Vol: $606,789Ends Jun 30

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Open

YES 28cNO 73c

Vol: $327,899Ends Jul 15

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

Open

YES 75cNO 26c

Vol: $283,468Ends Jul 29

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Open

YES 44cNO 56c

Vol: $192,183Ends Jul 31

Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?

Open

YES 10cNO 90c

Vol: $132,038Ends Jul 1

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Open

YES 13cNO 87c

Vol: $110,174Ends Jun 30

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?

Open

YES 34cNO 66c

Vol: $97,321Ends Jul 31

Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Open

YES 93cNO 7c

Vol: $71,136Ends Jun 30

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

Open

YES 47cNO 54c

Vol: $67,642Ends Jul 1

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Resolved

YES 90cNO 11c

Vol: $445,517Ends Jun 30

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Open

YES 17cNO 83c

Vol: $108,388Ends Jul 29

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Open

YES 27cNO 74c

Vol: $90,557Ends Jul 31

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?

Open

YES 10cNO 91c

Vol: $61,853Ends Jun 23

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June?

Open

YES 8cNO 92c

Vol: $48,188Ends Jul 1

Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

Open

YES 7cNO 94c

Vol: $45,990Ends Aug 1

Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?

Open

YES 62cNO 39c

Vol: $29,935Ends Jun 23

Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30?

Open

YES 16cNO 84c

Vol: $29,957Ends Jun 30

SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month?

Open

YES 91cNO 10c

Vol: $25,630Ends Jul 1

Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21?

Open

YES 6cNO 95c

Vol: $72,248Ends Jun 22

Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June?

Open

YES 32cNO 69c

Vol: $61,064Ends Jul 1

Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m?

Open

YES 24cNO 76c

Vol: $40,850Ends Jun 22

Will Russia enter Borova by June 30?

Open

YES 5cNO 95c

Vol: $38,891Ends Jun 30

Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

Open

YES 94cNO 6c

Vol: $89,643Ends Jun 30

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Open

YES 5cNO 95c

Vol: $80,425Ends Jun 30

Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?

Open

YES 9cNO 92c

Vol: $64,228Ends Jul 1

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?

Open

YES 5cNO 95c

Vol: $51,296Ends Jun 30

Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?

Open

YES 57cNO 43c

Vol: $42,418Ends Jun 23

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Open

YES 5cNO 95c

Vol: $168,145Ends Jun 30

Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Open

YES 8cNO 92c

Vol: $145,497Ends Jun 30

Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June?

Open

YES 6cNO 94c

Vol: $126,038Ends Jul 1

Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?

Open

YES 36cNO 64c

Vol: $34,199Ends Jun 30

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30?

Open

YES 7cNO 94c

Vol: $33,762Ends Jun 30

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

Resolved

YES 7cNO 93c

Vol: $393,684Ends Jun 21

Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Open

YES 12cNO 89c

Vol: $275,572Ends Jun 21

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Open

YES 54cNO 47c

Vol: $1,898,184Ends Jun 30

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?

Open

YES 5cNO 95c

Vol: $234,157Ends Jul 1

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

Open

YES 10cNO 90c

Vol: $230,522Ends Jun 30

Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21?

Open

YES 20cNO 80c

Vol: $64,821Ends Jun 22

Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?

Open

YES 11cNO 89c

Vol: $56,583Ends Jul 1

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?

Open

YES 8cNO 93c

Vol: $122,641Ends Jun 30

Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June?

Open

YES 5cNO 95c

Vol: $80,825Ends Jul 1

Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?

Resolved

YES 88cNO 12c

Vol: $551,681Ends Jun 30

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?

Open

YES 8cNO 92c

Vol: $93,312Ends Jun 19

Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Open

YES 89cNO 12c

Vol: $86,647Ends Jun 21

Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?

Resolved

YES 90cNO 10c

Vol: $660,500Ends Jul 1

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

Resolved

YES 82cNO 18c

Vol: $331,116Ends Jun 19

Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?

Open

YES 64cNO 36c

Vol: $131,297Ends Jul 31

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?

Open

YES 89cNO 11c

Vol: $67,121Ends Jun 20

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?

Open

YES 19cNO 82c

Vol: $117,742Ends Jun 18

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Open

YES 95cNO 5c

Vol: $97,442Ends Jun 30

Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?

Open

YES 81cNO 20c

Vol: $65,192Ends Jun 18

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?

Open

YES 7cNO 94c

Vol: $214,818Ends Jun 30

Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June?

Open

YES 9cNO 92c

Vol: $121,100Ends Jul 1

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?

Open

YES 5cNO 95c

Vol: $92,499Ends Jul 1

Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30?

Open

YES 16cNO 84c

Vol: $59,031Ends Jul 1

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

Open

YES 6cNO 94c

Vol: $194,176Ends Jun 30

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Open

YES 6cNO 95c

Vol: $43,371Ends Jun 30

Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?

Open

YES 7cNO 93c

Vol: $161,124Ends Jul 1

Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?

Open

YES 23cNO 77c

Vol: $119,484Ends Jun 30

Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?

Open

YES 14cNO 86c

Vol: $116,073Ends Jul 16

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?

Open

YES 57cNO 43c

Vol: $47,581Ends Jun 30

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June?

Open

YES 54cNO 47c

Vol: $43,158Ends Jul 1

Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?

Resolved

YES 25cNO 76c

Vol: $161,414Ends Jun 18

US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026?

Open

YES 86cNO 14c

Vol: $64,579Ends Jul 1

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Resolved

YES 80cNO 21c

Vol: $723,306Ends Jun 30

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?

Open

YES 7cNO 93c

Vol: $132,645Ends Jun 16

US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?

Open

YES 51cNO 49c

Vol: $77,874Ends Jun 16

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?

Open

YES 17cNO 84c

Vol: $53,177Ends Jun 16

Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?

Open

YES 8cNO 92c

Vol: $46,084Ends Jun 30

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?

Resolved

YES 74cNO 27c

Vol: $364,699Ends Jun 30

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

Resolved

YES 83cNO 18c

Vol: $358,638Ends Jun 30

Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?

Open

YES 6cNO 94c

Vol: $197,523Ends Jun 30

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?

Open

YES 22cNO 78c

Vol: $48,740Ends Jun 16

Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?

Open

YES 8cNO 92c

Vol: $44,146Ends Jun 30

Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14?

Open

YES 20cNO 81c

Vol: $33,964Ends Jun 15

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Resolved

YES 27cNO 73c

Vol: $6,020,818Ends Jun 15

Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June?

Open

YES 82cNO 19c

Vol: $144,119Ends Jul 1

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?

Open

YES 17cNO 84c

Vol: $48,723Ends Jun 16

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?

Open

YES 18cNO 83c

Vol: $38,825Ends Jul 1

Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?

Open

YES 50cNO 50c

Vol: $92,532Ends Jun 30

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?

Open

YES 9cNO 92c

Vol: $51,393Ends Jun 30

Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?

Open

YES 45cNO 56c

Vol: $46,137Ends Jun 30

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?

Resolved

YES 6cNO 95c

Vol: $179,710Ends Jun 16

Will Iran close its airspace by June 12?

Open

YES 8cNO 93c

Vol: $81,697Ends Jun 13

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?

Open

YES 18cNO 83c

Vol: $70,858Ends Jun 30

Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?

Open

YES 14cNO 86c

Vol: $41,263Ends Jun 30

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?

Resolved

YES 7cNO 93c

Vol: $539,742Ends Jun 13

Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?

Open

YES 24cNO 76c

Vol: $39,402Ends Jun 13

Will Iran close its airspace by June 13?

Open

YES 33cNO 68c

Vol: $37,170Ends Jun 14