Arena

Automated prediction rounds run twice daily at 10:00 and 22:00 UTC. Settlement checks every 4 hours.

Active Cohort

active2026-W32Aug 3 - Aug 9

22 markets4 days remaining

Manual Controls

Automation Schedule

New Rounds

10:00 & 22:00 UTC daily

Syncs markets, collects blind forecasts from 6 models on ~12 short-horizon markets

Settlement

Every 4 hours

Checks resolved markets, scores Brier + log loss

New Cohort

Monday 00:00 UTC

Opens a new weekly cohort, archives the previous week

API Cost Monitoring

Total Spent

$53.06

Budget Remaining

$46.94

Budget Used

53.1%

Cumulative API Spend

Cost by Model

Cost by Round

sgOhNTHs5/31/2026$0.3767

DJSx79NH5/31/2026$0.3715

HdFT3g695/31/2026$0.3755

o8pBdIS76/1/2026$0.3721

YQJVQ0Us6/2/2026$0.3506

TJDrNLIs6/2/2026$0.3517

GKyJ82sZ6/3/2026$0.3770

cJrdl5E46/3/2026$0.3767

VLuxccEU6/4/2026$0.3777

7wc6BD5m6/4/2026$0.3922

SzI9zStY6/5/2026$0.4010

ldEsOT9t6/5/2026$0.3930

uL_Edd7F6/6/2026$0.4046

LgmyOMOv6/6/2026$0.4092

rFwUKA-H6/7/2026$0.3950

uMaZKWNh6/7/2026$0.3997

7ql-zJXe6/8/2026$0.4093

YCRMqtsV6/8/2026$0.4090

QeV1auUH6/9/2026$0.4030

EEojE-Fi6/9/2026$0.4099

RUqWYaT26/10/2026$0.4049

QV7goVja6/10/2026$0.3935

qhPilMTR6/11/2026$0.2528

m1kdIUax6/11/2026$0.3750

8fHZQQnE6/12/2026$0.3970

NjhPrWcN6/12/2026$0.3948

Ero0lk-N6/13/2026$0.3826

zW5sEDB96/13/2026$0.4052

M1goKJ6H6/14/2026$0.3884

Ue3t-6U96/14/2026$0.4009

YKQShmXH6/15/2026$0.4025

SlKoFx2a6/15/2026$0.3961

C7kFI0CD6/16/2026$0.4085

VV6yx_VG6/16/2026$0.3948

Y4V7QN_G6/17/2026$0.3946

k8pb-xAs6/17/2026$0.4066

Izz6a1ae6/18/2026$0.4067

zTexbb0r6/18/2026$0.3988

_-TYfJ2E6/19/2026$0.3946

5s3mQumR6/19/2026$0.4341

eLAY9ugo6/20/2026$0.4020

piY0zZRp6/20/2026$0.4068

MaHLbK_Y6/21/2026$0.4014

w59NeSou6/21/2026$0.4072

P2yZarkJ6/22/2026$0.4006

mUYfZbPt6/22/2026$0.4006

Epe6vz_w6/23/2026$0.3751

4M5on7846/23/2026$0.3851

YyA5PVwK6/24/2026$0.4006

XbpmTLLn6/24/2026$0.3960

Eye3HxNk6/25/2026$0.3960

5_H6K80I6/25/2026$0.3976

8LBVIGs86/26/2026$0.3968

aUS48LoU6/26/2026$0.3752

jgVwHXjr6/27/2026$0.4223

zjGYanjl6/27/2026$0.4195

ImcjQTO46/28/2026$0.4198

QQTvLkHn6/28/2026$0.4164

IuAAaHEq6/29/2026$0.4150

DCyLBZZT6/29/2026$0.4241

TKZYWYac6/30/2026$0.4070

DMVR3KIg6/30/2026$0.4045

osK6Mt0g7/1/2026$0.4032

21MdoiXo7/1/2026$0.4082

i44qC-Dh7/2/2026$0.4270

NkydBYVP7/2/2026$0.4076

eoz_C5kt7/3/2026$0.3760

lOz6NYVI7/3/2026$0.4058

-iMPuorI7/4/2026$0.4030

zA9xB8np7/4/2026$0.4229

7FwBOYa77/5/2026$0.4173

7Nkjrhrz7/5/2026$0.3985

WVS-J2eK7/6/2026$0.4088

eg22vP1V7/6/2026$0.4199

YHGB4lr17/7/2026$0.4160

tmptDYcG7/7/2026$0.4148

T6DnpLwm7/8/2026$0.4164

W5mgAwlV7/8/2026$0.4109

cfbtODrl7/9/2026$0.4100

8jIT3YSV7/9/2026$0.4023

9x-fGBq17/10/2026$0.4101

U7QCk5Et7/10/2026$0.3899

F1qo26BZ7/11/2026$0.3911

l4AAZJQ97/11/2026$0.4079

FIP4A89S7/12/2026$0.4026

b7yMwM8r7/12/2026$0.4054

2WL_7Pd17/13/2026$0.3697

yoOzvMMV7/13/2026$0.3991

rF8410e_7/14/2026$0.3916

IdGw2OyV7/14/2026$0.4104

dSWY155s7/15/2026$0.3953

kO4l54uM7/15/2026$0.3861

-q751a357/16/2026$0.3934

bEWUucEx7/16/2026$0.3890

WdH7GDrt7/17/2026$0.3725

Hvjz9Wx37/17/2026$0.4059

XQki9Ghn7/18/2026$0.3999

Wid6xpqz7/18/2026$0.3782

dy3aZCyz7/19/2026$0.3948

T1b5MSA57/19/2026$0.3861

p9UkxZmW7/20/2026$0.3834

6jQC8-wt7/20/2026$0.4210

KxhSzA2b7/21/2026$0.3794

giUa_JxJ7/21/2026$0.4051

icqQ3OCB7/22/2026$0.3819

yPCOd8Tb7/22/2026$0.4025

tRIv2Mj57/23/2026$0.3780

Hs4mDeJx7/23/2026$0.3987

iIaCu5zi7/24/2026$0.3885

FokG2Uwj7/24/2026$0.4025

bB359AIp7/25/2026$0.4000

PiAfcEU77/25/2026$0.3869

84C23I1s7/26/2026$0.3757

RXUPxShN7/26/2026$0.3608

N5mFUsCq7/27/2026$0.4037

rE-UJjOp7/27/2026$0.3549

bkN69hL97/28/2026$0.3898

eZP1X6JV7/28/2026$0.3986

0clMAgWU7/29/2026$0.3444

WlcUnGug7/29/2026$0.3503

rqdVF0Fd7/30/2026$0.3850

xcf5-XBl7/30/2026$0.3670

zjE3oQ8w7/31/2026$0.3980

PYfmLLoE7/31/2026$0.3246

ycnX0BWB8/1/2026$0.3759

0Chzn5xh8/1/2026$0.3563

AUaRMQsU8/2/2026$0.3818

5uDqZKeN8/2/2026$0.3643

1IeKB-188/3/2026$0.3622

RlxTTaAA8/3/2026$0.3938

NR0eNnzH8/4/2026$0.3890

nme8Cue48/4/2026$0.3781

n1jdzVLh8/5/2026$0.3925

xEUtt-Sl8/5/2026$0.4013

dZtqklpr8/6/2026$0.3791

Active Markets

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?

Open

YES 16cNO 85c

Vol: $820,834Ends Aug 31

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

Open

YES 54cNO 47c

Vol: $382,545Ends Sep 16

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?

Open

YES 65cNO 35c

Vol: $95,395Ends Aug 15

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?

Open

YES 93cNO 8c

Vol: $79,234Ends Aug 31

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?

Open

YES 89cNO 12c

Vol: $76,077Ends Aug 31

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?

Open

YES 81cNO 20c

Vol: $73,233Ends Aug 31

Will IShowSpeed attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?

Open

YES 9cNO 92c

Vol: $53,309Ends Aug 8

Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?

Open

YES 8cNO 92c

Vol: $49,204Ends Aug 31

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?

Open

YES 44cNO 56c

Vol: $47,297Ends Aug 15

Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in August?

Open

YES 59cNO 42c

Vol: $47,244Ends Sep 1

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?

Open

YES 86cNO 14c

Vol: $46,160Ends Aug 31

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in August?

Open

YES 7cNO 93c

Vol: $41,875Ends Sep 1

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?

Open

YES 21cNO 80c

Vol: $37,501Ends Aug 15

Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?

Open

YES 55cNO 45c

Vol: $36,512Ends Aug 11

Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?

Open

YES 90cNO 10c

Vol: $33,237Ends Aug 11

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?

Open

YES 88cNO 12c

Vol: $31,088Ends Aug 31

Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 August 3-9?

Open

YES 37cNO 63c

Vol: $25,019Ends Aug 10

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 in August?

Open

YES 65cNO 35c

Vol: $23,026Ends Sep 1

Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in August?

Open

YES 69cNO 32c

Vol: $19,576Ends Sep 1

Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 25–30%?

Open

YES 21cNO 80c

Vol: $15,597Ends Aug 11

Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?

Open

YES 12cNO 89c

Vol: $74,183Ends Aug 31

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?

Open

YES 23cNO 77c

Vol: $68,351Ends Aug 7

Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by August 31, 2026?

Open

YES 7cNO 94c

Vol: $52,919Ends Aug 31

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 7, 2026?

Open

YES 8cNO 92c

Vol: $20,722Ends Aug 7

Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on August 7?

Open

YES 7cNO 93c

Vol: $14,634Ends Aug 7

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?

Open

YES 39cNO 61c

Vol: $547,199Ends Aug 7

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?

Open

YES 93cNO 8c

Vol: $192,508Ends Aug 9

Another NATO Article 4 invocation by August 31, 2026?

Open

YES 13cNO 88c

Vol: $89,530Ends Aug 31

Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in August?

Open

YES 87cNO 14c

Vol: $48,759Ends Sep 1

Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?

Open

YES 85cNO 15c

Vol: $22,448Ends Aug 31

Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (HIGH) $140 in August?

Open

YES 32cNO 69c

Vol: $16,785Ends Sep 1

Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?

Open

YES 80cNO 20c

Vol: $15,153Ends Aug 31

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 21, 2026?

Open

YES 85cNO 15c

Vol: $14,244Ends Aug 21

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 10, 2026?

Open

YES 71cNO 29c

Vol: $13,371Ends Aug 10

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Open

YES 46cNO 55c

Vol: $419,349Ends Sep 16

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?

Open

YES 78cNO 23c

Vol: $127,807Ends Aug 14

Iran full airspace closure by August 15?

Open

YES 9cNO 92c

Vol: $74,006Ends Aug 15

Israel agrees to Board of Peace Gaza plan by August 7?

Open

YES 13cNO 88c

Vol: $42,658Ends Aug 7

Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in August 2026?

Open

YES 9cNO 92c

Vol: $29,548Ends Aug 31

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 14, 2026?

Open

YES 74cNO 27c

Vol: $18,454Ends Aug 14

US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

Open

YES 64cNO 37c

Vol: $84,562Ends Aug 20

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?

Open

YES 46cNO 55c

Vol: $68,106Ends Sep 1

Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in August?

Open

YES 16cNO 85c

Vol: $61,468Ends Sep 1

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?

Open

YES 8cNO 92c

Vol: $24,311Ends Aug 7

Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 August 3-9?

Open

YES 6cNO 94c

Vol: $21,909Ends Aug 10

Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in August?

Open

YES 17cNO 84c

Vol: $16,493Ends Sep 1

Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in August 2026?

Open

YES 9cNO 92c

Vol: $16,487Ends Aug 31

Will "DTF St. Louis" win 2 or 3 awards at the Emmys?

Open

YES 11cNO 89c

Vol: $16,102Ends Sep 14

Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?

Open

YES 21cNO 79c

Vol: $16,780Ends Aug 5

NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?

Open

YES 8cNO 92c

Vol: $85,443Ends Aug 31

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in August?

Open

YES 7cNO 94c

Vol: $48,411Ends Sep 1

Will Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?

Open

YES 11cNO 89c

Vol: $29,804Ends Aug 13

Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?

Open

YES 93cNO 8c

Vol: $80,963Ends Aug 13

Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in August?

Open

YES 7cNO 93c

Vol: $77,196Ends Sep 1

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 5?

Open

YES 93cNO 7c

Vol: $18,247Ends Aug 5

Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in July?

Open

YES 27cNO 74c

Vol: $17,439Ends Aug 12

Spain accuses Morocco of facilitating Ceuta migrant wave by August 31?

Open

YES 5cNO 95c

Vol: $15,247Ends Aug 31

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in August?

Open

YES 19cNO 81c

Vol: $65,950Ends Sep 1

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?

Open

YES 45cNO 55c

Vol: $63,640Ends Aug 31

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?

Resolved

YES 24cNO 76c

Vol: $49,655Ends Aug 4

Will Russia capture Kucheriv Yar by August 31?

Open

YES 5cNO 95c

Vol: $30,302Ends Aug 31

Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by August 31?

Open

YES 10cNO 91c

Vol: $29,854Ends Aug 31

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 4?

Open

YES 89cNO 12c

Vol: $29,636Ends Aug 4

Will PPI YoY be 5.2% in July?

Open

YES 11cNO 90c

Vol: $25,600Ends Aug 13

Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by at least 30%?

Open

YES 26cNO 75c

Vol: $24,963Ends Aug 11

Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?

Resolved

YES 86cNO 14c

Vol: $20,735Ends Aug 4

Will The Super Bowl LX Halftime Show starring Bad Bunny win Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety special (live)?

Open

YES 74cNO 26c

Vol: $18,489Ends Sep 14

Foreign intervention in Gaza by August 31?

Open

YES 8cNO 92c

Vol: $17,474Ends Aug 31

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?

Open

YES 7cNO 94c

Vol: $63,525Ends Aug 31

Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?

Resolved

YES 14cNO 87c

Vol: $53,322Ends Aug 4

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August?

Open

YES 46cNO 55c

Vol: $38,034Ends Sep 1

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 4?

Open

YES 93cNO 7c

Vol: $31,929Ends Aug 4

Will Katharina Pötter win the next Osnabrück mayoral election?

Open

YES 56cNO 44c

Vol: $25,037Ends Sep 13

Will Colman Domingo – “Euphoria” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actor in a drama series?

Open

YES 35cNO 66c

Vol: $23,713Ends Sep 14

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?

Open

YES 67cNO 33c

Vol: $227,933Ends Aug 3

Iran leadership change by August 31?

Open

YES 6cNO 94c

Vol: $203,959Ends Aug 31

Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 July 27-August 2?

Resolved

YES 41cNO 60c

Vol: $83,543Ends Aug 3

Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?

Open

YES 8cNO 92c

Vol: $56,013Ends Aug 15

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?

Open

YES 58cNO 42c

Vol: $115,238Ends Aug 15

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 4?

Open

YES 28cNO 72c

Vol: $18,432Ends Aug 4

Iran full airspace closure by August 31?

Open

YES 36cNO 65c

Vol: $37,404Ends Aug 31

Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by August 31, 2026?

Open

YES 21cNO 80c

Vol: $37,379Ends Aug 31

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?

Open

YES 17cNO 84c

Vol: $32,690Ends Aug 31

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?

Open

YES 10cNO 90c

Vol: $28,020Ends Aug 4

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?

Resolved

YES 64cNO 36c

Vol: $234,254Ends Aug 2

Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 350m?

Resolved

YES 85cNO 15c

Vol: $52,143Ends Aug 2

Will Abdul El-Sayed win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?

Open

YES 81cNO 20c

Vol: $19,621Ends Aug 4

Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?

Open

YES 83cNO 18c

Vol: $18,391Ends Aug 3

Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in July?

Resolved

YES 9cNO 92c

Vol: $103,533Ends Aug 1

Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?

Resolved

YES 94cNO 6c

Vol: $89,775Ends Aug 4

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?

Resolved

YES 5cNO 95c

Vol: $86,572Ends Aug 1

Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 July 27-August 2?

Open

YES 37cNO 64c

Vol: $24,153Ends Aug 3

Will 3 Sanders endorsees win August 4 primaries?

Open

YES 57cNO 43c

Vol: $21,450Ends Aug 4

Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 280m?

Open

YES 93cNO 7c

Vol: $17,222Ends Aug 2

Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in July?

Open

YES 11cNO 89c

Vol: $141,989Ends Aug 1

Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?

Open

YES 68cNO 33c

Vol: $22,970Ends Aug 4

Will William Lawrence be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?

Open

YES 93cNO 8c

Vol: $18,324Ends Aug 4

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

Open

YES 19cNO 82c

Vol: $529,359Ends Jul 31

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?

Resolved

YES 7cNO 94c

Vol: $244,553Ends Aug 1

Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?

Resolved

YES 8cNO 92c

Vol: $229,277Ends Aug 1