Markets

Short-horizon Polymarket binary markets — the shared set every forecaster is scored on

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
Open
YES 16cNO 85c
Vol: $820,834Ends Aug 31
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
Open
YES 54cNO 47c
Vol: $382,545Ends Sep 16
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
Open
YES 65cNO 35c
Vol: $95,395Ends Aug 15
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?
Open
YES 93cNO 8c
Vol: $79,234Ends Aug 31
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?
Open
YES 89cNO 12c
Vol: $76,077Ends Aug 31
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?
Open
YES 81cNO 20c
Vol: $73,233Ends Aug 31
Will IShowSpeed attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?
Open
YES 9cNO 92c
Vol: $53,309Ends Aug 8
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?
Open
YES 8cNO 92c
Vol: $49,204Ends Aug 31
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?
Open
YES 44cNO 56c
Vol: $47,297Ends Aug 15
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in August?
Open
YES 59cNO 42c
Vol: $47,244Ends Sep 1
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?
Open
YES 86cNO 14c
Vol: $46,160Ends Aug 31
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in August?
Open
YES 7cNO 93c
Vol: $41,875Ends Sep 1
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?
Open
YES 21cNO 80c
Vol: $37,501Ends Aug 15
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
Open
YES 55cNO 45c
Vol: $36,512Ends Aug 11
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?
Open
YES 90cNO 10c
Vol: $33,237Ends Aug 11
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?
Open
YES 88cNO 12c
Vol: $31,088Ends Aug 31
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 August 3-9?
Open
YES 37cNO 63c
Vol: $25,019Ends Aug 10
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 in August?
Open
YES 65cNO 35c
Vol: $23,026Ends Sep 1
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in August?
Open
YES 69cNO 32c
Vol: $19,576Ends Sep 1
Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 25–30%?
Open
YES 21cNO 80c
Vol: $15,597Ends Aug 11
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?
Open
YES 12cNO 89c
Vol: $74,183Ends Aug 31
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?
Open
YES 23cNO 77c
Vol: $68,351Ends Aug 7
Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by August 31, 2026?
Open
YES 7cNO 94c
Vol: $52,919Ends Aug 31
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 7, 2026?
Open
YES 8cNO 92c
Vol: $20,722Ends Aug 7
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on August 7?
Open
YES 7cNO 93c
Vol: $14,634Ends Aug 7
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?
Open
YES 39cNO 61c
Vol: $547,199Ends Aug 7
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?
Open
YES 93cNO 8c
Vol: $192,508Ends Aug 9
Another NATO Article 4 invocation by August 31, 2026?
Open
YES 13cNO 88c
Vol: $89,530Ends Aug 31
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in August?
Open
YES 87cNO 14c
Vol: $48,759Ends Sep 1
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?
Open
YES 85cNO 15c
Vol: $22,448Ends Aug 31
Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (HIGH) $140 in August?
Open
YES 32cNO 69c
Vol: $16,785Ends Sep 1
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?
Open
YES 80cNO 20c
Vol: $15,153Ends Aug 31
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 21, 2026?
Open
YES 85cNO 15c
Vol: $14,244Ends Aug 21
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 10, 2026?
Open
YES 71cNO 29c
Vol: $13,371Ends Aug 10
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Open
YES 46cNO 55c
Vol: $419,349Ends Sep 16
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?
Open
YES 78cNO 23c
Vol: $127,807Ends Aug 14
Iran full airspace closure by August 15?
Open
YES 9cNO 92c
Vol: $74,006Ends Aug 15
Israel agrees to Board of Peace Gaza plan by August 7?
Open
YES 13cNO 88c
Vol: $42,658Ends Aug 7
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in August 2026?
Open
YES 9cNO 92c
Vol: $29,548Ends Aug 31
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 14, 2026?
Open
YES 74cNO 27c
Vol: $18,454Ends Aug 14
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
Open
YES 64cNO 37c
Vol: $84,562Ends Aug 20
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?
Open
YES 46cNO 55c
Vol: $68,106Ends Sep 1
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in August?
Open
YES 16cNO 85c
Vol: $61,468Ends Sep 1
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?
Open
YES 8cNO 92c
Vol: $24,311Ends Aug 7
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 August 3-9?
Open
YES 6cNO 94c
Vol: $21,909Ends Aug 10
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in August?
Open
YES 17cNO 84c
Vol: $16,493Ends Sep 1
Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in August 2026?
Open
YES 9cNO 92c
Vol: $16,487Ends Aug 31
Will "DTF St. Louis" win 2 or 3 awards at the Emmys?
Open
YES 11cNO 89c
Vol: $16,102Ends Sep 14
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?
Open
YES 21cNO 79c
Vol: $16,780Ends Aug 5
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?
Open
YES 8cNO 92c
Vol: $85,443Ends Aug 31
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in August?
Open
YES 7cNO 94c
Vol: $48,411Ends Sep 1
Will Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
Open
YES 11cNO 89c
Vol: $29,804Ends Aug 13
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?
Open
YES 93cNO 8c
Vol: $80,963Ends Aug 13
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in August?
Open
YES 7cNO 93c
Vol: $77,196Ends Sep 1
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 5?
Open
YES 93cNO 7c
Vol: $18,247Ends Aug 5
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in July?
Open
YES 27cNO 74c
Vol: $17,439Ends Aug 12
Spain accuses Morocco of facilitating Ceuta migrant wave by August 31?
Open
YES 5cNO 95c
Vol: $15,247Ends Aug 31
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in August?
Open
YES 19cNO 81c
Vol: $65,950Ends Sep 1
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
Open
YES 45cNO 55c
Vol: $63,640Ends Aug 31
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
Resolved
YES 24cNO 76c
Vol: $49,655Ends Aug 4
Will Russia capture Kucheriv Yar by August 31?
Open
YES 5cNO 95c
Vol: $30,302Ends Aug 31
Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by August 31?
Open
YES 10cNO 91c
Vol: $29,854Ends Aug 31
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 4?
Open
YES 89cNO 12c
Vol: $29,636Ends Aug 4
Will PPI YoY be 5.2% in July?
Open
YES 11cNO 90c
Vol: $25,600Ends Aug 13
Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by at least 30%?
Open
YES 26cNO 75c
Vol: $24,963Ends Aug 11
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?
Resolved
YES 86cNO 14c
Vol: $20,735Ends Aug 4
Will The Super Bowl LX Halftime Show starring Bad Bunny win Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety special (live)?
Open
YES 74cNO 26c
Vol: $18,489Ends Sep 14
Foreign intervention in Gaza by August 31?
Open
YES 8cNO 92c
Vol: $17,474Ends Aug 31
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?
Open
YES 7cNO 94c
Vol: $63,525Ends Aug 31
Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?
Resolved
YES 14cNO 87c
Vol: $53,322Ends Aug 4
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August?
Open
YES 46cNO 55c
Vol: $38,034Ends Sep 1
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on August 4?
Open
YES 93cNO 7c
Vol: $31,929Ends Aug 4
Will Katharina Pötter win the next Osnabrück mayoral election?
Open
YES 56cNO 44c
Vol: $25,037Ends Sep 13
Will Colman Domingo – “Euphoria” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actor in a drama series?
Open
YES 35cNO 66c
Vol: $23,713Ends Sep 14
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?
Open
YES 67cNO 33c
Vol: $227,933Ends Aug 3
Iran leadership change by August 31?
Open
YES 6cNO 94c
Vol: $203,959Ends Aug 31
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 July 27-August 2?
Resolved
YES 41cNO 60c
Vol: $83,543Ends Aug 3
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?
Open
YES 8cNO 92c
Vol: $56,013Ends Aug 15
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?
Open
YES 58cNO 42c
Vol: $115,238Ends Aug 15
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 4?
Open
YES 28cNO 72c
Vol: $18,432Ends Aug 4
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?
Open
YES 36cNO 65c
Vol: $37,404Ends Aug 31
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by August 31, 2026?
Open
YES 21cNO 80c
Vol: $37,379Ends Aug 31
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?
Open
YES 17cNO 84c
Vol: $32,690Ends Aug 31
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
Open
YES 10cNO 90c
Vol: $28,020Ends Aug 4
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?
Resolved
YES 64cNO 36c
Vol: $234,254Ends Aug 2
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 350m?
Resolved
YES 85cNO 15c
Vol: $52,143Ends Aug 2
Will Abdul El-Sayed win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?
Open
YES 81cNO 20c
Vol: $19,621Ends Aug 4
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?
Open
YES 83cNO 18c
Vol: $18,391Ends Aug 3
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in July?
Resolved
YES 9cNO 92c
Vol: $103,533Ends Aug 1
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
Resolved
YES 94cNO 6c
Vol: $89,775Ends Aug 4
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?
Resolved
YES 5cNO 95c
Vol: $86,572Ends Aug 1
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 July 27-August 2?
Open
YES 37cNO 64c
Vol: $24,153Ends Aug 3
Will 3 Sanders endorsees win August 4 primaries?
Open
YES 57cNO 43c
Vol: $21,450Ends Aug 4
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 280m?
Open
YES 93cNO 7c
Vol: $17,222Ends Aug 2
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in July?
Open
YES 11cNO 89c
Vol: $141,989Ends Aug 1
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?
Open
YES 68cNO 33c
Vol: $22,970Ends Aug 4
Will William Lawrence be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?
Open
YES 93cNO 8c
Vol: $18,324Ends Aug 4
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
Open
YES 19cNO 82c
Vol: $529,359Ends Jul 31
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?
Resolved
YES 7cNO 94c
Vol: $244,553Ends Aug 1
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?
Resolved
YES 8cNO 92c
Vol: $229,277Ends Aug 1