Mojtaba Khamenei was installed as Supreme Leader in March 2026 after his father's assassination, backed by the IRGC and Assembly of Experts, and has held power for about five months. Prediction markets for a change by August 31, 2026, are trading at 2-4% (e.g., Polymarket at 2% as of August 22), reflecting very low near-term risk. No credible reports suggest imminent removal, detention, or resignation, and the regime's institutional stability makes a sudden change within the next 9 days highly unlikely.
Despite ongoing speculation about Mojtaba Khamenei's health and public absence since March 2026, credible sources and prediction markets strongly favor his continued leadership through August 31, 2026. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps maintains dominant control, and institutional continuity is expected in the short term, making a leadership change before August 31 unlikely.
Given that the current date is August 22, 2026, and the market resolves on August 31, 2026, there is very little time remaining for a leadership change to occur. While there is significant speculation regarding Mojtaba Khamenei's health and actual exercise of power, the regime has maintained a facade of institutional continuity, and prediction markets consistently price the probability of a change within this extremely short window at approximately 2% [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/events/iran-leadership-change-by), [predictstamp.com](https://www.predictstamp.com/markets/iran-leadership-change-by/), [octagonai.co](https://www.octagonai.co/markets/politics/politics/iran-leadership-change-by/).
The recent succession of Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader of Iran was backed by the Assembly of Experts and the IRGC, indicating strong institutional support. Prediction markets reflect a very low probability of a leadership change by August 31, with Polymarket showing 2% and other markets showing 3%. The base rate for such changes is low, and the recent transition suggests stability.
Mojtaba Khamenei was confirmed as the new Supreme Leader of Iran in March 2026 following the assassination of his father, Ali Khamenei, and remains in power as of August 2026 [polymarket.copilot.markets](https://polymarket.copilot.markets/event/iran-leadership-change-by). The regime has prioritized stability, with strong backing from the IRGC and the Assembly of Experts, making abrupt leadership change unlikely. Although there are reports of collective decision-making and health speculation, no credible evidence suggests imminent removal or resignation. Prediction markets show low implied probabilities (around 2–4%) for a change by August 31 [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/events/iran-leadership-change-by), aligning with a low base rate for leadership turnover in authoritarian regimes.
Prediction markets like Polymarket and Predictstamp show low odds for Iran leadership change by August 31, with 2% and 3% respectively, reflecting low near-term change probability.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
With only 9 days remaining until the August 31, 2026 deadline and no current signs of an imminent escalation, the probability of a qualifying military encounter is very low. Historical base rates since 2022 show no direct NATO-Russia clashes meeting the definition, and both sides exercise caution to avoid direct war. The prediction market on Polymarket prices this at 4%, reflecting a small but non-zero risk from potential accidental incidents like drone shootdowns (e.g., an MQ-9) that would qualify.
Prediction markets like Polymarket, which aggregate real-money bets from informed traders, currently price the probability of a NATO-Russia military clash by August 31, 2026, at about 27%. Given the ongoing geopolitical tensions, the risk of direct military encounters remains significant but not certain. The market's collective wisdom, supported by substantial liquidity and a strong track record of accuracy, provides a reliable estimate reflecting current intelligence and risk assessments.
While tensions between NATO and Russia remain high due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, both sides have consistently demonstrated a strong desire to avoid direct military escalation that could trigger Article 5. The definition of a 'military encounter' in this market is quite narrow, excluding common incidents like airspace violations or non-weaponized collisions, which significantly lowers the likelihood of a 'Yes' resolution. Current prediction market data [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/nato-x-russia-military-clash-in-2025) suggests a low probability for such an event occurring before the August 2026 deadline.
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While tensions persist, the current market-implied probability of 4% suggests low expectations for direct military engagement by August 2026 [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/nato-x-russia-military-clash-in-2025). Historical incidents have stopped short of direct force, and both NATO and Russia appear cautious about escalation. Adjusting slightly above market odds due to residual risk from miscalculation or drone shootdowns, the true probability is estimated at 5%.
The Polymarket market for a NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026 has a 'Buy Yes' price of 4.2¢, implying a 4.2% probability.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
As of August 22, 2026, Strait of Hormuz transit calls are at single-digit daily levels (roughly 90% below the pre-crisis average of 130). To reach a 7-day moving average of 60 by August 31, daily transits would need to surge to well over 60 in the remaining 9 days, which is implausible given persistent US-Iran tensions, IRGC enforcement actions, high war-risk insurance, and the lack of a breakthrough in Oman-Iran diplomatic talks. Even if a resolution occurred immediately, it would take time for shipping to resume and for the moving average to rise, making the threshold unreachable within the timeframe.
As of August 22, 2026, Strait of Hormuz traffic remains severely restricted, with daily vessel transits at roughly 1% of pre-crisis levels and a 7-day moving average far below the 60-ship threshold. Persistent US-Iran tensions, repeated attacks on commercial vessels, and high war-risk insurance premiums continue to suppress traffic. Although Oman-Iran diplomatic talks offer some hope for easing restrictions, the prerequisites for normalization—sustained security assurances and insurance normalization—have not yet been met, making a return to normal traffic by August 31 unlikely but not impossible.
As of August 22, 2026, transit levels in the Strait of Hormuz remain at single-digit daily figures, which is approximately 90% below historical norms. Given that the threshold for a 'Yes' resolution is a 7-day moving average of 60 transit calls, and there are only nine days remaining in the month, it is highly improbable that diplomatic breakthroughs or security conditions will improve rapidly enough to achieve a nearly tenfold increase in traffic by August 31.
The current transit calls are at single-digit daily levels, roughly 90% below the pre-crisis average. The primary near-term catalyst for easing restrictions is ongoing Oman-Iran diplomatic talks, but sustained security assurances and insurance normalization are prerequisites for any meaningful recovery. Given the current low levels and the significant barriers to recovery, the probability of reaching a 7-day moving average of 60 or above by August 31 is low.
As of August 22, 2026, the Strait of Hormuz is experiencing single-digit daily transits—down roughly 90% from the pre-crisis average—due to ongoing US-Iran tensions, IRGC enforcement actions, and rerouting by major carriers [polymarket.copilot.markets](https://polymarket.copilot.markets/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-august-31-20260702154212320). The 7-day moving average would need to reach 60 for a 'Yes' resolution, but current throughput is at about 1% of prior norms, with no indication of rapid recovery. Diplomatic talks between Oman and Iran offer a potential catalyst, but meaningful normalization requires sustained security assurances and insurance cost reductions, which are not yet in place.
As of August 22, 2026, Strait of Hormuz transits are at single-digit levels, 90% below pre-crisis averages, with no clear near-term resolution to tensions. The market requires a 7-day moving average of at least 60, which is unlikely given current conditions.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Current Polymarket odds are around 7% (as of August 22, 2026) and have been declining steadily, reflecting that traffic remains well below the 60-ship 7-day moving average threshold with only five weeks left. The geopolitical situation in the Strait of Hormuz shows no imminent resolution, and a rapid sustained increase in transit calls to that level appears highly unlikely given the short timeframe. Base rates for such a recovery under similar geopolitical stress are very low, so I estimate about 7% probability.
Current prediction markets and data sources indicate a low probability (around 7-14%) that the Strait of Hormuz traffic will return to a 7-day moving average of 60 or more transit calls by September 30, 2026. Given ongoing geopolitical tensions and disruptions in the region, the likelihood remains low but not negligible. Market prices and volumes suggest cautious sentiment leaning towards 'No', but some chance of normalization exists.
Current market sentiment and available data suggest that shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remains significantly below the threshold required for a 'Yes' resolution. Given the geopolitical tensions and the short timeframe remaining until September 30, 2026, it is highly unlikely that transit volumes will recover to the specified 7-day moving average of 60 calls.
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The condition for a 'Yes' resolution is that IMF Portwatch reports a 7-day moving average of 60 or more transit calls by September 30, 2026. Current market odds from Polymarket indicate a 22% probability of this occurring [polymarket.com](https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/660109), which aligns with independent aggregation of prediction market data. This reflects low expectations for a return to normal traffic levels, likely due to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the region.
Market prices from Polymarket indicate a low probability of the 7-day moving average of transit calls reaching 60 by September 30.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Given the very short remaining window (9 days), the absence of any official US statement ending the blockade, and recent statements from Defense Secretary Hegseth emphasizing indefinite sustainment and increased economic pressure, the likelihood of a qualifying announcement by August 31 is extremely low. Polymarket odds (~16%) and the sharp downward trend further support a low probability. A small chance remains for a last-minute diplomatic breakthrough, but the strict criteria and current posture make it unlikely.
Recent market data and official statements indicate a very low likelihood of the US announcing an end to the Iranian naval blockade by August 31, 2026. The US government has publicly stated it can maintain the blockade indefinitely, and no qualifying official announcement has been made or signaled. Market prices have sharply declined as the deadline approaches, reflecting near-term consensus that no such announcement is imminent.
The U.S. government has recently reaffirmed its commitment to the naval blockade, with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth explicitly stating on August 13, 2026, that the U.S. can maintain the blockade 'indefinitely' [reuters.com]. With the August 31 deadline only days away and no signs of diplomatic progress or policy shifts, the likelihood of an official announcement terminating the blockade is extremely low.
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As of August 2026, the Polymarket contract for a U.S. announcement ending the Iranian blockade by August 31 is priced at 16% [global-political-spotlight.com](https://www.global-political-spotlight.com/articles/polymarket/briefs/odds-of-us-announcing-end-to-iran-blockade-fall-sharply-as-aug-31-deadline-nears-and-no-qualifying-signal-appears-202608), reflecting trader consensus. Recent statements from U.S. officials, including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, emphasize the U.S. can maintain the blockade indefinitely and intend to escalate economic pressure [reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-eyes-indefinite-iran-naval-blockade-oil-supply-shortfall-deepens-2026-08-13/), with no indication of a qualifying official announcement. The narrowing time window and lack of diplomatic progress further reduce the likelihood.
Polymarket currently prices the chance at 16%, with a sharp decline due to approaching deadline and lack of qualifying announcements. US officials have stated they can maintain the blockade indefinitely.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Based on the short remaining time (9 days) and the absence of recent qualifying strikes, the base rate of such an event occurring in this window is moderate. The prediction market consensus of ~62% provides a strong anchor, and without contrary evidence, I adjust slightly upward to 0.65 to account for the possibility of a surprise escalation, but remain well-calibrated.
Current information indicates a fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran, with no recent qualifying military actions reported. The 60-day Islamabad Memorandum ceasefire is expiring in mid-August 2026 without a final agreement, and while tensions remain, no confirmed US air or missile strikes impacting Iran have occurred recently. The prediction market prices this event at about 62%, reflecting moderate confidence in a continued ceasefire through August 31, given ongoing diplomatic uncertainty and unresolved core disputes.
The expiration of the Islamabad Memorandum in mid-August 2026 has led to a fragile security environment with no formal extension of the ceasefire. However, given the current date of August 22, there is only about a week remaining in the observation period. While tensions are high and diplomatic channels are stalled, the threshold for a 'qualifying military action'—specifically an air or surface-to-surface missile strike on Iranian territory—is relatively high, and both sides have shown a preference for avoiding direct, large-scale kinetic escalation that could trigger a broader conflict.
The prediction market for a US-Iran effective ceasefire by August 31 is currently pricing in a 62% probability of such an event occurring. This assessment is informed by known facts about the current state of tensions between the two nations, including any recent military actions or diplomatic efforts that may have contributed to a temporary pause in hostilities. The market's price would likely increase if there were signs of sustained progress towards a ceasefire, such as renewed diplomatic talks or a reduction in military posturing on both sides. Conversely, a decrease in the probability of a ceasefire could be triggered by an escalation in tensions or a provocative action taken by either nation. As the market's resolution date approaches, any developments that suggest a prolonged period of calm between the US and Iran would likely drive up the price, while a resumption of hostilities would push it down.
Based on current public reporting and the narrow definition of qualifying military action, the U.S. has not engaged in direct strikes on Iranian territory recently. The absence of escalation, combined with diplomatic inertia and high costs of conflict, supports a moderate probability of continued ceasefire. However, regional volatility—especially via proxies in the Middle East—keeps the risk non-trivial, warranting a calibrated estimate below 0.70.
The market has an implied YES probability of 62% as per Frenzy Capital, considering the expiring ceasefire period and ongoing disputes.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
The June 14, 2026 initial deal set a 60-day extendable negotiation period, meaning the deadline for a final deal is around mid-August 2026, with a possible extension. As of late August 2026, no final deal has been signed, and prediction markets show very low probabilities (e.g., 8.5% for December 31). The AP News report highlights that the initial deal offered Iran benefits upfront with little in return, making a final comprehensive nuclear agreement unlikely given the deep mistrust and complex technical requirements. The short remaining time and lack of progress suggest a low probability of meeting the strict criteria by year-end.
The US and Iran initiated a negotiation period on June 14, 2026, with a 60-day extendable window to reach a final deal. Given the complexity of nuclear negotiations, historical difficulties, and the low market-implied probabilities for earlier dates (e.g., 8.5% by December 31), the chance of a fully signed or formally adopted qualifying instrument by the end of 2026 remains low but not negligible. The detailed criteria for qualification and the need for mutual agreement on concrete, measurable obligations further reduce the likelihood within this timeframe.
While a memorandum of understanding was signed in June 2026, the initial 60-day negotiation window has already passed without a final deal. The significant decline in market confidence and the inherent difficulty of reconciling US and Iranian nuclear requirements suggest that the momentum for a formal, qualifying agreement by year-end is very low.
The initial agreement on June 14, 2026, set a 60-day negotiation period, which is a positive step but not a guarantee. Historical difficulties in US-Iran negotiations and the complexity of the nuclear issue suggest a low probability of a final deal by December 31, 2026. The market odds from Polymarket and Rain.trade also indicate low confidence, with Polymarket showing 8.5% and Rain.trade showing 6% for a deal by December 31, 2026.
As of the latest available data, the probability of a final US-Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2026, remains low. A preliminary agreement was announced on June 14, 2026, initiating a 60-day extendable negotiation period [tomorrowodds.com](https://tomorrowodds.com/q/us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-december-31-2026). However, current market indicators and odds suggest only an 8.5% chance of a qualifying final deal being signed or adopted by the deadline [rain.trade](https://www.rain.trade/will-the-us-and-iran-finalize-a-nuclear-agreement-by-6a661e50f8e64ced2cd8e486). Historical precedent and the complexity of bilateral agreements, especially involving stringent verification benchmarks, further dampen expectations for a definitive agreement within the timeframe.
There is a 60-day negotiation period starting from the June 14, 2026, announcement, and the market has a 8.5% chance of resolving yes by December 31, 2026.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Bitcoin has never reached $80,000 in any prior month, and Polymarket markets for similar high targets in recent months (e.g., July 2026 at $80k) resolved at 0.1%. Current Polymarket odds for $70k in August 2026 are only 7.5%, and $80k is a much higher threshold. Given the current price is far below $80k and the month is already 22 days in, the probability is extremely low.
Market data from Polymarket shows extremely low odds (0.1%) for Bitcoin reaching $80,000 in July 2026, and no significant increase in probability for August. Given the difficulty of surpassing this high price level and the current market sentiment, the chance of Bitcoin hitting $80,000 in August 2026 is very low.
Current market data indicates that Bitcoin is trading near $65,000, with prediction markets assigning a very low probability to reaching $80,000 within the remaining days of August 2026. Given the significant price gap and the limited time remaining in the month, a move to $80,000 would require an unprecedented and sudden surge in volatility that is not currently supported by market sentiment.
Given that Bitcoin reached $65,000 in August 2026 with a 100% probability [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-reach-65k-in-august-2026) and only reached $70,000 with a 31% probability [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-reach-70k-in-august-2026), it is unlikely that it will reach $80,000 in the same month. The market's historical data and the significant drop in probability from $65,000 to $70,000 suggest a lower likelihood of reaching $80,000.
Bitcoin reaching $80,000 in August 2026 is unlikely given current market indicators. While Bitcoin has a 100% chance of reaching $65,000 [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-reach-65k-in-august-2026), the probability drops sharply for higher targets, with only a 7.5% implied probability for $70,000 [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-reach-70k-in-august-2026). The odds for $80,000 are even lower, with a previous July market showing just 0.1% odds [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-reach-80k-in-july-2026), suggesting limited market confidence in such a move in the near term.
Bitcoin reaching $80,000 in August is a high target. Historical data shows lower odds for higher price targets, and without direct market data, it's estimated lower than the 31% chance for $70k in August.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Based on Polymarket data, Ethereum failed to reach $2,700 in June and $2,200 in late July, and current odds for even $2,000 on August 18 were under 3%. The price is far below $2,700 with only 9 days left, making a spike to that level extremely improbable. Base rates from similar events suggest a probability around 0.1% or less.
Recent prediction markets and trading volumes indicate extremely low probabilities for Ethereum reaching $2,700 in the near future, including July and June 2026, with odds near 0.1% or less. Given the downward trend and lack of bullish momentum in these markets, it is highly unlikely Ethereum will hit $2,700 in August 2026.
Ethereum has consistently traded well below the $2,700 threshold throughout the summer of 2026, with recent market data indicating that even lower targets like $2,200 were not met [predictmarketcap.com]. Given that the current price is significantly lower and there are only a few days remaining in August, the probability of a sudden, massive spike to $2,700 is extremely low based on current market trends [web3.bitget.com].
unparseable forecast JSON
Ethereum's price has not approached $2,700 in recent months, with prediction markets assigning very low probabilities to such a move. Polymarket shows a 99.8% chance that Ethereum will not reach $2,700 in June [polymarket.com](https://explorer.struct.to/markets/will-ethereum-reach-2700-in-june-2026), and similar markets for August price targets show minimal trading volume and negligible odds for levels above $2,050 [bitget.com](https://web3.bitget.com/predictions/event/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-on-august-18-2026). The current market consensus strongly suggests that a spike to $2,700 is highly unlikely in August 2026.
No direct market data for Ethereum reaching $2,700 in August, but recent trends (e.g., low odds for lower price targets) suggest low likelihood.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Based on current price of ~$1,850 and only 9 days left in August, a ~60% rally to $3,000 is highly improbable. Polymarket implied probabilities for hitting $3,000 by later dates (76% by Sept 30) suggest the event is very unlikely in the remaining days of August. I estimate a 2% chance, consistent with a rare but not impossible black swan event.
Current market data and prediction markets show Ethereum trading well below $3,000 in August 2026, with no strong indicators or market momentum suggesting a spike to $3,000 within the month. Historical volatility and recent price trends make such a rapid increase unlikely in the short term.
As of August 22, 2026, Ethereum is trading significantly below the $3,000 threshold, with current market data and prediction markets indicating that reaching this level within the remaining days of August is highly improbable. Given the current price levels and the short time remaining in the month, a rapid surge of this magnitude is unlikely without a major, unforeseen catalyst.
unparseable forecast JSON
As of August 22, 2026, prediction markets on Polymarket indicate an 83% implied probability that Ethereum will hit $3,000 by December 31, 2026, showing strong market confidence in a near-term price surge [coinrithm.com](https://www.coinrithm.com/en/prediction-markets/polymarket/when-will-ethereum-hit-3k). Given Ethereum's current price around $1,950 and bullish momentum, combined with historical volatility and potential catalysts like ETF approvals or network upgrades, the probability of reaching $3,000 in August is substantial but not certain. The absence of major negative macroeconomic events further supports this upward trajectory.
Based on Polymarket odds showing higher probabilities for Ethereum reaching $3k by December, and August being a prior timeframe, there's a significant chance. Key factors include the upward price trajectory implied in later probabilities and August's position before December.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
unparseable forecast JSON
Prediction markets like Polymarket currently price the probability of a 25 bps rate increase after the September 2026 Fed meeting at about 32%. This reflects moderate market skepticism about a rate hike, with a stronger consensus leaning towards no change. The Fed's recent communications and economic data trends suggest a cautious approach, making a rate increase less likely but still possible.
Current prediction market data from [kresmion.com](https://kresmion.com/odds/will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-september-2026-meeting-649) indicates a 32% probability for a 25 bps rate increase. While economic uncertainty persists, the consensus among market participants currently favors a 'no change' outcome, reflecting a cautious outlook on Federal Reserve policy adjustments for the September 2026 meeting.
Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kresmion show a 32% probability of a 25 bps interest rate increase by the Fed after the September 2026 meeting. This aligns with recent market trends and economic data, which suggest a lean towards no change or a rate cut rather than an increase.
Prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kresmion aggregate real-time trader sentiment and are often well-calibrated. As of August 21, 2026, the 'Yes' probability on Polymarket is 32%, reflecting current market expectations. This is consistent with other indicators suggesting a low likelihood of a rate hike, given recent economic data and Fed officials' cautious tone on rate changes. While sentiment has fluctuated, the current consensus leans against a 25 bps increase.
Polymarket data as of Aug 21, 2026, shows a 32% probability of the Fed increasing interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting, with the 'no change' outcome having 68%.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Polymarket prediction markets as of August 2026 price 'no change' at 68% with $9.8M volume and high liquidity, reflecting efficient aggregation of expert and trader information. The strong June labor report and Fed officials' cautious rhetoric support a hold, while a 32% chance of a 25 bps hike remains possible but less likely given recent data. With only three weeks until resolution, the market consensus is reliable.
Prediction markets like Polymarket, which aggregate the beliefs of many informed traders, currently price the probability of no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting at about 68%. This reflects a consensus that the Fed is likely to hold rates steady, possibly due to stable economic indicators and expectations of limited inflationary pressure. Historical trends and recent Fed communications also suggest a cautious approach to rate changes in this period.
Prediction markets, which aggregate collective information and have a strong track record of accuracy, currently price the probability of no change in the federal funds rate at approximately 68%. While economic conditions remain fluid, the market consensus suggests that the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain current rates during the September 2026 meeting, reflecting a cautious approach to monetary policy.
unparseable forecast JSON
unparseable forecast JSON
Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kresmion show aggregated probabilities of around 68% for no change in Fed rates after the September 2026 meeting, considering current economic data and market expectations.
Mean of 4/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 4/6 valid model forecasts.