The Polymarket price is ~7-14% and Orrery shows 7% as of July 13, 2026, with only ~62 hours left until the July 15 deadline. Iran has already conducted two general closures in early 2026 (January and February), making a third closure within a short window less likely absent a major new trigger. No recent credible reports indicate an imminent general closure, and the market has been declining, suggesting low expectation of a qualifying event.
Recent market data from Polymarket and Orrery indicate a low probability (around 7-14%) of a full Iranian airspace closure by July 15, 2026. Past closures have been rare and typically linked to specific political or military events; no current credible reports suggest an imminent full closure. Partial or regional closures have occurred but do not meet the criteria for a full closure.
With the resolution deadline of July 15, 2026, only approximately 62 hours remain. There are currently no credible reports or indicators of an imminent, large-scale military or political event that would necessitate a total closure of Iranian airspace. The market probability has remained low, reflecting the lack of immediate catalysts for such a significant disruption.
Recent history shows that Iran has closed its airspace multiple times in 2026, but these closures have been relatively short-lived and not continuous. The most recent closure was on February 28, 2026, and another in January 2026. Given the pattern of intermittent closures, it is possible but not highly probable that Iran will initiate another general closure by July 15, 2026. The base rate of such closures is low, and there is no immediate evidence suggesting an imminent closure.
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As of July 13, 2026, the Polymarket implied probability is 7%, with limited recent price changes, and considering the upcoming July 15 resolution date.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Based on the web search results, Mojtaba Khamenei has made a public appearance at a funeral, but he was masked and identification is not fully confirmed. With only two days left until July 15, the chance that a clear, authentic photograph or video emerges and gains consensus is low. The market odds of ~4-5% reflect this uncertainty, and I adopt a similar estimate given the short timeframe and ambiguity of the reported sighting.
Recent information indicates Mojtaba Khamenei made his first public appearance as Iran's Supreme Leader, which slightly increases the likelihood of further appearances. However, the market odds for a public appearance by July 15 remain very low (around 3-5%), reflecting ongoing security concerns and his previous absence. Given the short timeframe and the high risk environment, the probability remains low but not negligible.
Current market sentiment and recent reporting indicate a very low probability of a confirmed public appearance by Mojtaba Khamenei before the July 15 deadline. While there have been reports of a sighting at a funeral, the regime's security posture remains highly restrictive, and the consensus among prediction markets reflects significant skepticism regarding further verified public appearances in the immediate term.
Mojtaba Khamenei has made his first public appearance at his father's funeral, but given the heightened security concerns and his previous absence due to severe injuries, the likelihood of another public appearance by July 15 is low. The market odds reflect this uncertainty, with a 4.7% probability of a public appearance by the specified date.
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Based on market data, the probability is low. Polyguana shows ~3.45% and Polymarket has 4%, considering the need for authentic images/videos within the timeframe.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
The market resolves to YES only if the 7-day moving average of transit calls reaches 60 by July 15, 2026. Current Polymarket odds are below 1%, indicating traders see almost no chance of recovery in the remaining two days. Given the severe disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and the very short time window, a return to the normal baseline of 60 is extremely unlikely.
Current market data from Polymarket shows a near 0% probability that Strait of Hormuz traffic will return to normal levels (7-day average of 60 or more transit calls) by July 15, 2026. Given the very low trading odds and the lack of any recent indications of normalization, the probability remains extremely low. However, a small nonzero chance is retained due to potential unforeseen developments or rapid changes in regional conditions.
The current date is July 13, 2026, leaving only two days until the resolution deadline. Given that the market has consistently traded at near-zero probability and there are no indications of a sudden, massive surge in shipping traffic to meet the 60-call threshold, it is highly improbable that the condition will be met.
The Polymarket crowd-sourced probability is currently at 0% for 'Yes,' indicating a strong consensus that the Strait of Hormuz traffic will not return to normal by July 15, 2026. This low probability is likely due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and disruptions in the region that have historically affected shipping traffic.
The current market-implied probability on Polymarket is near 0% for 'Yes', with 'No' priced at 99¢, indicating strong consensus that traffic will not return to normal by July 15, 2026 [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-15). The resolution depends on IMF Portwatch reporting a 7-day moving average of at least 60 ship transits, a level not recently observed due to ongoing geopolitical tensions. Despite minor fluctuations, traffic has remained well below 60, suggesting persistent disruption.
The market currently has a 1% probability for 'Yes' on Polymarket, and the resolution depends on IMF Portwatch's 7-day moving average of transit calls being ≥60 by July 15, 2026.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
The Polymarket crowd assigns a 5% probability, reflecting the consensus that current traffic is far below 60 and unlikely to recover in the short remaining window. Without contrary evidence of a sudden de-escalation, the chance of reaching the threshold by July 31 is very low.
Current prediction markets, which aggregate diverse information and trader sentiment, assign only about a 5% chance that Strait of Hormuz traffic will return to normal levels (7-day average of 60 or more transit calls) by July 31, 2026. Given ongoing geopolitical tensions and disruptions in the region, a rapid return to normal traffic levels seems unlikely in the near term.
The current market sentiment and available data suggest a very low probability of reaching the required 7-day moving average of 60 transit calls by the end of July 2026. Given the ongoing geopolitical tensions and the specific threshold defined by IMF Portwatch, there is no indication of a significant enough shift in maritime traffic to meet the criteria within the remaining timeframe.
The current crowd-sourced probability on Polymarket is 5% for "Yes" [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31). However, considering the Strait of Hormuz's historical significance and the potential for regional stability to improve, I adjust the probability slightly upwards. The key factors include the current low market probability, the historical volatility of shipping traffic through the Strait, and the potential for geopolitical developments to influence shipping activity.
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The current crowd-sourced probability on Polymarket is 5%, and there is no indication of a significant shift towards meeting the 60 threshold for transit calls by July 31.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
The June 14, 2026, MoU initiated a 60-day negotiation period for a final nuclear deal, with the question extending the deadline to August 18, 2026. However, as of July 13, 2026, active US bombing of Iranian cities and an escalating military standoff in the Strait of Hormuz are occurring, based on reporting from Al Jazeera. This severe armed conflict makes it virtually impossible for both parties to negotiate and sign a detailed final diplomatic instrument within the remaining ~5 weeks, despite the prior framework agreement. The base rate for successful nuclear deals under active military conflict is near zero, and no signs of imminent de-escalation or breakthrough are evident in credible news sources.
While the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement on June 14, 2026, initiating a 60-day extendable negotiation period toward a final deal, current reports do not indicate that a final, signed or formally adopted instrument meeting all specified criteria has been reached as of mid-July 2026. Given the complexity of Iran nuclear negotiations historically and ongoing regional tensions, the probability of a final deal by August 18 remains modest but possible if negotiations accelerate.
The current geopolitical situation is characterized by active military conflict between the United States and Iran, as evidenced by reports of US bombings of Iranian cities and retaliatory attacks by Iran on regional allies [aljazeera.com]. This state of open hostility makes the successful negotiation and formal adoption of a final nuclear deal within the next five weeks highly improbable. The June 14 memorandum of understanding has been effectively superseded by the escalation of kinetic warfare.
The current geopolitical climate, as indicated by the ongoing tensions and military actions between the US and Iran [aljazeera.com](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/7/13/iran-war-live-us-bombs-iranian-cities-again-as-hormuz-standoff-intensifies), suggests significant challenges to reaching a final nuclear deal by August 18, 2026. While diplomatic efforts have been initiated, the high level of conflict and distrust between the two nations reduces the likelihood of a successful agreement in the near term.
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The US and Iran have a 60-day negotiation period starting June 14, 2026, but no specific recent deal-related information is available from the search.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Polymarket odds for a dip to $57,500 in July 2026 are currently 25.5%, reflecting a consensus estimate from informed traders. The similar June market resolved at 54.1%, suggesting July may have lower volatility or a higher starting price, but the current price is around $60,000–$62,000, making a ~4% drop plausible. Base rates from recent months show that such intra-month dips are common but not certain, and the 25.5% market price is a reasonable anchor. I adjust slightly downward to 25% to account for my own uncertainty and the fact that the market may already incorporate some bias.
Market data from Polymarket indicates a 25.5% probability that Bitcoin will dip to $57,500 or lower on Binance during July 2026. Given the volatility of Bitcoin and the fact that this is a one-minute candle low, such dips are plausible but not highly likely. The market's odds provide a reasonable baseline for this forecast.
The current market probability for Bitcoin hitting $57,500 or lower on Binance in July 2026 is 25.5% according to [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-dip-to-57pt5k-in-july-2026). Given the volatility of cryptocurrency markets and the specific requirement for a one-minute candle, this estimate reflects the current market sentiment and the likelihood of a short-term price dip.
Polymarket markets currently give a 25.5% chance that BTC/USDT will touch $57,500 or lower on a one-minute Binance candle during July 2026. This is a significant drop from the 54.1% odds in June, indicating a lower likelihood of such a dip in July. The probability is also higher than the 12.5% chance of a dip to $55,000 and the 2.5% chance of a dip to $50,000, suggesting that while a dip to $57,500 is possible, it is not highly probable.
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Based on the Polymarket market data, the current probability of Bitcoin dipping to $57,500 in July 2026 is 25.5%.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Current prediction market odds (48-64.5%) and the close proximity of $65k to the implied median of the $62.5k (95.9%) and $67.5k (36.5%) markets suggest roughly a 50-60% chance. With ~19 days elapsed in July and 12 remaining, Bitcoin must record a brief spike to $65k. Given typical intra-month BTC volatility and the fact that it hasn't hit $65k yet this month, I lean slightly above the midpoint of the implied odds, at 55%, reflecting a modest upward bias from general market optimism.
Market data from Polymarket indicates a 64.5% probability that Bitcoin will reach $65,000 on Binance during July 2026. This reflects current trader sentiment and price momentum expectations, making it a reasonable estimate for the event's likelihood.
Market data from prediction platforms indicates a 64.5% probability that Bitcoin will touch the $65,000 threshold on Binance during July 2026. Given that the price is already trading near this range and has a very high probability of hitting $62,500, the likelihood of reaching $65,000 remains significant as volatility could easily bridge the remaining gap.
The prediction market on Polymarket currently estimates a 64.5% chance that Bitcoin will reach $65,000 in July 2026. This is a strong indicator, as prediction markets often reflect aggregated market sentiment and expert opinions. Additionally, the market for Bitcoin reaching $67,500 in the same month is priced at 36.5%, suggesting that while $65,000 is considered more likely, there is still significant uncertainty around higher price targets.
The probability is based on the current trading price of 64.5% on Polymarket [polymarket.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-reach-65k-in-july-2026), which reflects real-money bets on whether Bitcoin will reach $65,000 on Binance's BTC/USDT pair during July 2026. Market prices in well-established prediction markets like Polymarket often serve as efficient aggregators of available information, including technical trends, macro conditions, and trader sentiment.
Polymarket currently prices the event at 64.5% with resolution based on Binance 1-minute BTC/USDT candles in July.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Polymarket markets for related Bitcoin price targets in July 2026 show a 24.5% probability for $70,000, a 36.5% probability for $67,500, and a 64.5% probability for $65,000. These implied probabilities are consistent with a roughly 24% chance of hitting $70,000, given the current market conditions and the fact that the month is already underway. The market consensus provides a well-calibrated baseline, and there is no strong countervailing evidence to deviate significantly from it.
Market data from Polymarket, which aggregates trading sentiment and information from Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle highs, currently prices the probability of Bitcoin reaching $70,000 in July 2026 at about 24.5%. This reflects a moderate chance given recent price trends and volatility, with higher probabilities for lower price targets and much lower for higher ones, indicating $70,000 is seen as a challenging but plausible target.
The current market sentiment and trading data on Polymarket indicate a 24.5% probability for Bitcoin reaching $70,000 in July 2026. Given that the probability of reaching $65,000 is significantly higher (64.5%) and $67,500 is at 36.5%, the $70,000 target represents a more ambitious price movement that requires sustained bullish momentum throughout the remainder of the month.
The market odds from Polymarket suggest a 24.5% probability that Bitcoin will reach $70,000 in July 2026. This is supported by the fact that the probability of reaching $65,000 is 64.5%, while the probability of reaching $77,500 is only 1.1%, indicating that $70,000 is a significant but less likely target compared to $65,000 but more likely than $77,500.
As of the latest data, Bitcoin has not yet reached $70,000 in July 2026, and the probability of it doing so before month-end is informed by market expectations. Prediction markets on Polymarket assign a 24.5% chance to Bitcoin reaching $70,000 on Binance's BTC/USDT pair during July [polymarket.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-reach-70k-in-july-2026). This aligns with decreasing probabilities as the price target increases: 64.5% for $65,000 [polymarket.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-reach-65k-in-july-2026), 36.5% for $67,500 [polymarket.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-reach-67pt5k-in-july-2026), and only 1.1% for $77,500 [polymarket.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-reach-77pt5k-in-july-2026), suggesting a well-calibrated price sensitivity. I adjust slightly upward from the market price to account for volatility and tail risk, resulting in a 25% independent estimate.
Polymarket currently prices the probability of Bitcoin reaching $70,000 in July at 24.5%, and there's no additional significant information to adjust this estimate.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
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Current prediction markets assign a low probability (~4%) to WTI Crude Oil hitting $95 in July 2026, reflecting market consensus and expectations. Given typical price volatility and current market conditions, a spike to $95 is possible but unlikely within the specified timeframe. The futures market and trading volumes support this low probability estimate.
Current market data from Polymarket indicates that the probability of WTI Crude Oil hitting $85 is approximately 14-25%, and the market for $95 is trading at a very low probability (around 4%). Given that $95 is significantly higher than current price expectations and market sentiment, it is highly unlikely to be reached within the remaining days of July 2026.
The prediction market on Polymarket shows that the probability of WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hitting $95 in July 2026 is very low, with a current market price of 4% for the 'Yes' outcome. This suggests that traders collectively assign a 4% chance to this event happening. The leading outcome is '↑ $70' at 100%, indicating a strong consensus that prices will not reach $95. Historical data and market trends support this low probability, as significant price movements to $95 are not expected based on current market conditions and forecasts.
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Based on Polymarket data, the indicated probability for WTI hitting $95 in July 2026 is 4%.
Mean of 4/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 4/6 valid model forecasts.
The Polymarket prediction market for WTI hitting $65 in July 2026 currently shows a 65% probability, backed by $20.1K in 24h volume and $27.7K in liquidity, suggesting informed traders see this as likely. However, the same event for June 2026 resolved at 96% No, indicating that $65 was not reached then, and the current probability has risen from 35% to 65% over the past month, reflecting changing market conditions. Given the precision required (a 1-minute candle low of exactly $65 or below), the probability is high but not certain, aligning with the market's 65% estimate.
Current market data and prediction platforms indicate a 65% probability that WTI Crude Oil will hit a low of $65 in July 2026. This is supported by recent trading odds and volume data, reflecting moderate market confidence in a price dip to this level during the specified timeframe.
Market sentiment and current trading data from [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-july-2026) and [predictionninja.com](https://predictionninja.com/market/will-wti-dip-to-65-in-july-2026) consistently place the probability of WTI Crude Oil hitting $65 at approximately 65%. Given the volatility inherent in energy markets and the specific threshold set for the entire month of July, this reflects a balanced view of potential downside risks in oil pricing.
The current market probability on Polymarket is 65%, which is a strong indicator. Additionally, the price of WTI has shown significant volatility in recent months, increasing the likelihood of hitting $65 in July 2026. Historical data and market trends suggest that such price movements are plausible.
The 65% probability reflects current trading sentiment and accounts for base rates of oil volatility. Given WTI's historical range and the lack of structural floor above $65, a drop to that level is plausible, especially if demand weakens or production rises. The resolution criteria are clearly defined and verifiable via Pyth, reducing ambiguity risk.
Based on web search results, the current probability for WTI Crude Oil hitting (LOW) $65 in July 2026 is 65%.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
The US just lifted its blockade on June 18 as part of a diplomatic deal, and the 60-day negotiation window is ongoing. A new blockade announcement within 18 days would require a sudden, severe breakdown in talks, which appears unlikely given current de-escalation momentum. The market's 33% probability seems too high; I estimate a lower 15% probability.
Recent developments show a de-escalation in US-Iran tensions, including a memorandum of understanding that suspended hostilities and lifted the US naval blockade in mid-June 2026. While the situation remains volatile and future breakdowns in negotiations or military incidents could prompt a blockade announcement, current momentum favors diplomacy and reduced conflict risk. Market probabilities and expert assessments currently place the chance of a blockade announcement by July 31 at about one-third, reflecting moderate but not high risk of escalation.
The probability of the US announcing a formal naval blockade on Iran by July 31, 2026, remains low. While geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are persistent, a formal declaration of a blockade is an extreme escalation that would likely trigger a major regional conflict, which the US has consistently sought to avoid through diplomatic and targeted military measures. Current prediction markets [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-blockade-on-iran-byptptpt-20260622191049039) and [orrery.me](https://orrery.me/markets/will-the-us-announce-a-blockade-on-iran-by-july-31-20260622191116912) reflect this skepticism, with the probability hovering around 33%.
The recent diplomatic progress between the US and Iran, including the lifting of the naval blockade and ongoing negotiations, suggests a low likelihood of a blockade announcement by July 31. The current market probabilities (33% on Orrery and 36% on Polymarket) reflect some uncertainty, but the base rate for such a significant escalation is low given the current de-escalation momentum.
As of July 13, 2026, there has been no official announcement from the U.S. government or its authorized representatives indicating the imposition of a naval blockade on Iran, ships traveling to or from Iranian ports, or vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The Polymarket implied probability stands at 33% [orrery.me](https://orrery.me/markets/will-the-us-announce-a-blockade-on-iran-by-july-31-20260622191116912), reflecting speculative trading activity rather than concrete developments. Given the high threshold for a qualifying announcement—requiring an unambiguous, official declaration via proper channels—and the absence of any such communication to date, the likelihood of such an event occurring before July 31, 2026, is effectively zero.
As of July 13, 2026, Polymarket prices the 'Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?' market at 33% implied probability, considering recent diplomatic context and official announcement criteria.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Multiple prediction markets (Polymarket, Polyguana, PredictionNinja, Cent Signals) show a consistent implied probability of 78–85% for no change at the July 28–29, 2026 FOMC meeting, with heavy volume and deep liquidity indicating informed consensus. The Fed has held rates steady since early 2024 amid persistent but moderating inflation and a resilient labor market, and recent economic data (June CPI at 3.0%, unemployment at 4.1%) do not clearly demand a cut or hike before the September meeting. Given the market-implied probability near 84% and the tendency for no-change bets to firm up as the meeting approaches, my independent estimate is ~82%, slightly tempered by residual uncertainty about a potential 25bp cut if growth slows further.
Market data from multiple prediction platforms shows a strong consensus favoring no change in Fed interest rates at the July 2026 meeting, with probabilities ranging from 78% to 85%. The Federal Reserve typically changes rates only a fraction of the eight annual meetings, and current economic indicators and Fed communications suggest a hold is the baseline expectation. The main alternative is a 25 basis point hike, but the hold outcome remains the structural favorite.
Market sentiment and current economic expectations strongly favor a 'no change' decision by the FOMC in July 2026. Prediction markets consistently price this outcome at approximately 78-85%, reflecting a consensus that the Federal Reserve will maintain the current target federal funds rate range during this meeting.
The market consensus across multiple platforms suggests a high probability of no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting. Polymarket shows an 84.5% probability [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-july-181), PredictionNinja shows 85% [predictionninja.com](https://predictionninja.com/market/will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-july-2026-meeting), and Polyguana shows 78% [polyguana.com](https://polyguana.com/market/1654958). The high volume and liquidity in these markets indicate strong confidence in this outcome.
The provided search results are from prediction markets (e.g., Polymarket, Polyguana) that show implied probabilities between 78% and 85% for no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-july-181), [predictionninja.com](https://predictionninja.com/market/will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-july-2026-meeting), [polyguana.com](https://polyguana.com/market/1654958), [centsignals.com](https://centsignals.com/markets/will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-july-2026-meeting). However, these reflect crowd-sourced betting odds, not an independent forecast. As a professional forecaster, I must form my own estimate. Given that the event is over two years away, macroeconomic conditions are highly uncertain. The Federal Reserve's decisions depend on evolving inflation, employment, and growth data, which cannot be reliably predicted this far in advance. Base rates for rate changes in any given meeting are historically non-zero, and long-dated forecasts should regress strongly toward uncertainty. Therefore, assigning a precise probability like 85% is overconfident. The true probability of no change should reflect substantial uncertainty, leading to a more moderate estimate.
Market prices from Polymarket, Polyguana, and Cent Signals indicate a high likelihood of no change in Fed rates after the July 2026 meeting, with probabilities ranging from 78% to 85%. The resolution is based on the FOMC statement, and the meeting is scheduled for July 28-29, 2026.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.