Base rate of general closures in 2026 is roughly 2 per 7 months, but the last closure was in February. With only 11 days left and no current escalation, the chance is low. The market price of 31% seems elevated given the lack of recent triggers; I estimate 20% to account for the possibility of a surprise event.
Recent market data from Polymarket indicates a 31% implied probability of a full Iranian airspace closure by July 31, 2026. Historical precedent shows Iran has closed its airspace fully in early 2026, but such closures are relatively rare and typically linked to heightened tensions or military actions. Current information does not suggest imminent broad closures, but the possibility remains due to regional instability and Iran's prior behavior.
The market probability for a full Iranian airspace closure by July 31, 2026, is currently hovering around 31% on prediction platforms like [orrery.me](https://orrery.me/markets/iran-full-airspace-closure-by-jul-31-20260625195254150). While there have been historical precedents for such closures in early 2026, these are typically reactive to specific geopolitical escalations or military drills. Without a current, immediate trigger or official announcement of an impending closure, the likelihood remains moderate but speculative.
Recent market prices and expert commentary suggest a moderate likelihood of a full airspace closure in Iran by July 31. The Polymarket price of 31% [orrery.me](https://orrery.me/markets/iran-full-airspace-closure-by-july-31-20260625195254150) and discussions about escalating tensions in the region [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-full-airspace-closure-byptptpt-20260625195253028) support this estimate. Historical examples of similar closures [myriad.markets](https://myriad.markets/events/will-iran-close-its-airspace-by-73e17b5f) and the current geopolitical climate are key factors.
The 31% market-implied probability reflects crowd wisdom but may lag new information. Given Iran's precedent of two full closures in 2026 due to geopolitical factors, and no current indication of a new closure as of July 20, the base rate supports a moderate probability. Adjusting slightly above market price due to ongoing regional tensions, the true probability is estimated at 32%.
As of July 18, 2026, Polymarket prices the event at 31%, with recent slight increases. Past closures occurred in January and February 2026, but no new major indicators suggest a high likelihood before July 31.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
The threshold is a 7-day moving average of 60 transit calls, which is well below the pre-crisis average of ~130. A post-conflict high of 78 was reached on June 24, 2026, but subsequent drone attacks and a raised threat level have disrupted recovery. Current prediction markets (Polymarket at 14%, Manifold at 7-12%) reflect low confidence, and with only about six weeks left, sustained progress to 60 is uncertain but not impossible. I estimate 12%.
Current prediction markets like Polymarket and Manifold assign a low probability (~14%) to the Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by August 31, 2026. Despite a temporary improvement following a June 17 MoU, recent drone attacks and ongoing disputes have kept threat levels high and disrupted shipping. The complex geopolitical and security situation makes a full return to normal traffic unlikely by the deadline.
The situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains highly volatile following the June 2026 drone attacks, which caused the Joint Maritime Information Center to revert the threat level to 'Substantial'. Given that demining operations and administrative disputes persist, and current market sentiment on platforms like Polymarket and Manifold reflects significant skepticism, a return to 'normal' traffic levels by August 31 is unlikely.
The prediction markets on Polymarket and Manifold show low probabilities (14% and 12% respectively) for the Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by August 31. This suggests a collective market sentiment that the likelihood is low. The key factors include ongoing geopolitical tensions, recent disruptions, and the historical context of slow recovery in similar situations.
Base rate for recovery is low due to ongoing security risks and recent attacks. Market prices from Polymarket and Manifold reflect consensus around 12–14%, which aligns with observed conditions. Slight chance of improvement, but not sufficient to confidently expect a 7-day average ≥60 by August 31.
Current crowd-sourced probabilities from prediction markets are low, and ongoing disruptions like drone attacks and demining issues hinder a return to normal transit levels by August 31.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
The market is deeply split, but the critical constraint is time: only 11 days remain until the July 31 deadline. A 7-day moving average requires sustained high traffic over a week, and current data likely shows volumes well below 60. Even if a diplomatic breakthrough occurs immediately, it would take several days for transit calls to rise and then be averaged, making it improbable to hit the threshold by month-end. Base rates for such rapid recoveries in disrupted shipping chokepoints are very low. I assign a 5% probability.
Current prediction markets and expert analyses indicate a low probability (around 2% to 46% in some markets, but mostly leaning towards the lower end) that Strait of Hormuz traffic will return to normal by July 31, 2026. The main factors suppressing traffic include ongoing Iran-U.S. tensions, naval patrol disruptions, and high insurance costs. While diplomatic talks mediated through Oman could improve the situation, progress has been slow and uncertain, making a full return to normal traffic unlikely within the given timeframe.
The current market sentiment on Polymarket and related prediction platforms is overwhelmingly pessimistic, with a 2% probability assigned to a return to normal traffic levels by July 31, 2026. Given the proximity to the deadline and the lack of significant de-escalation in regional tensions or structural changes in shipping patterns, it is highly unlikely that the 7-day moving average of transit calls will reach the required threshold of 60.
The current crowd-sourced probability on Polymarket for the Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by July 31, 2026, is consistently reported as 2% across multiple sources. This low probability suggests that market participants believe there is a very low chance of the event occurring as specified.
The current market-implied probability of 2% reflects trader expectations based on real-time data from IMF Portwatch. Given no recent indication of a surge in transit calls to the threshold, and considering ongoing geopolitical tensions in the region, the likelihood of traffic returning to normal by July 31 remains very low.
The market shows near-even odds, with factors like U.S.-Iran diplomacy and current transit call levels influencing the outcome.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
timeout after 30000ms
Given the requirement of a continuous 14-day period without qualifying US military action against Iran by July 24, and considering that as of mid-July 2026 there have been recent US retaliatory strikes and ongoing hostilities, it is highly unlikely that such a ceasefire window is already in progress or will begin and complete before the market closes. The absence of diplomatic channels and the Trump administration's maximum pressure policy further reduce the likelihood of a ceasefire by this date.
The market requires a 14-day continuous period without a qualifying U.S. military action against Iran. Given that fresh U.S. airstrikes were reported as recently as July 20, 2026 [cryptoslate.com], it is mathematically impossible to complete a 14-day window of non-action before the market's July 24, 2026, deadline. The ongoing cycle of retaliation makes a sudden, sustained cessation of qualifying actions highly improbable within the remaining timeframe.
The probability is low due to recent active retaliation and the high bar of a continuous 14-day period without U.S. military action. The market-implied probabilities and expert analysis suggest a very low likelihood of a ceasefire by July 24.
A 'Yes' resolution requires a continuous 14-day U.S. military non-action period ending by July 24, 2026. With confirmed U.S. strikes as recent as July 20, the 14-day clock has reset. Given the short window and ongoing hostilities, it is impossible to complete the required period by the deadline.
The market for July 24 has a 13.5% probability, but Questflow analysis suggests fair value is ~10-12%. With US strikes on July 8 and resumption reported on July 18, a 14-day period can't start in time to end by July 24.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
The June 14 MOU set a 60-day window for final negotiations, but the situation has dramatically deteriorated into open warfare with daily strikes, rising casualties, and a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. While diplomatic channels remain technically open, the intense escalation makes it extremely unlikely that both sides will sign a detailed, verifiable nuclear agreement by August 18. Base rates for such deals during active conflict are very low, and the specific conditions required (concrete, measurable nuclear limits) are not being discussed amid the fighting. A 5% probability reflects a small chance of a last-minute ceasefire deal that could be framed as a 'final deal,' but the odds are heavily against it.
Despite the June 14, 2026 memorandum of understanding initiating a 60-day negotiation window toward a final deal, recent developments show escalating military conflict and strikes between the US and Iran, including nine consecutive nights of US strikes and Iranian retaliations. These hostilities and rising casualties suggest a low likelihood of a finalized, mutually signed nuclear deal by August 18, 2026. However, ongoing diplomatic exchanges and the initial agreement provide some chance that a deal could be reached within the timeframe.
The diplomatic agreement signed in June 2026 has effectively collapsed, with the United States and Iran currently engaged in an active, escalating military conflict. Recent reports indicate that the US has widened its strikes across Iran, including near nuclear facilities, while Iran has retaliated against US allies in the region. Given the current state of open warfare, mounting casualties, and the breakdown of the truce, the likelihood of both parties negotiating and signing a final nuclear deal by August 18, 2026, is extremely low.
The current escalation in US-Iran strikes and the lack of progress in diplomatic talks suggest a low probability of a final nuclear deal by August 18, 2026. The recent US strikes on Iran and Iran's retaliatory actions indicate a deteriorating relationship, making it unlikely that a final deal will be signed within the specified timeframe. Additionally, the ongoing conflict and the lack of a clear path to de-escalation further reduce the chances of a successful negotiation.
timeout after 30000ms
The US-Iran June 14 agreement has a 60-day negotiation window ending around August 14, but ongoing military strikes and escalation may hinder progress. No clear sign of a final deal being signed by August 18.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
The current Bitcoin price is well above $57,500, and the remaining 11 days offer limited time for a ~12% drop. Polymarket odds of 8.5% and even lower probabilities for deeper dips suggest the market judges this as unlikely. I adjust slightly upward to 9% to account for potential tail risk from unexpected news or volatility.
Current prediction markets assign about a 34% chance that Bitcoin will dip to $57,500 or lower on Binance during July 2026. Given Bitcoin's historical volatility and the presence of markets pricing this dip at roughly one-third probability, a moderate chance is reasonable. The resolution depends strictly on Binance's 1-minute candle lows, and no major market disruptions are expected.
Current market data from prediction platforms like Polymarket and Myriad indicates that the probability of Bitcoin hitting a low of $57,500 on a one-minute Binance candle in July 2026 is approximately 8.5% to 11%. Given that we are late in the month of July, the window for this volatility to occur is closing, and current market sentiment reflects a low likelihood of such a dip.
The market odds from Polymarket and Myriad suggest a low probability of Bitcoin dipping to $57,500 in July 2026, with Polymarket showing 8.5% odds and Myriad showing 11% odds. Given the consistency across these platforms and the fact that lower price targets ($50,000 and $52,500) have even lower probabilities (2.5% and 3.5% respectively), it is reasonable to estimate a slightly higher probability than the lowest observed market odds.
While prediction markets like Polymarket and Myriad suggest probabilities between 8.5% and 11%, I slightly adjust upward to 10% to account for residual volatility risk in crypto markets. Bitcoin's current price trajectory and macro support make a dip to $57,500 unlikely, but flash crashes or macro shocks could still trigger it within the month.
Polymarket currently prices the probability of Bitcoin dipping to $57,500 in July 2026 at 8.5%.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
As of July 20, Bitcoin is trading around $62,600, needing roughly a 12% rally to hit $70,000 in the remaining 11 days. Prediction markets like Polymarket imply about 19.5% chance, but given the short timeframe and lack of a strong bullish catalyst, I slightly underweight that to 18%. The move is possible but unlikely.
Current prediction markets and trading platforms estimate roughly a 17-20% chance that Bitcoin will reach $70,000 in July 2026. Bitcoin is trading around $62,600 mid-July, requiring about a 12% rally to hit $70,000, which is a significant but not impossible move given recent volatility and resistance levels. Market sentiment and historical volatility suggest a low to moderate probability for this event within the month.
As of late July 2026, Bitcoin is trading significantly below the $70,000 threshold, requiring a double-digit percentage rally in a short timeframe. Market participants on prediction platforms like Polymarket have consistently priced this outcome at approximately 19.5%, reflecting the difficulty of overcoming current resistance levels amid ongoing market consolidation and geopolitical uncertainty.
The current market odds on Polymarket suggest a 19.5% probability, and other related markets show similar low probabilities for Bitcoin reaching higher prices in July. The base rate for such significant price movements in a short period is low, and the current market sentiment does not strongly support a rapid increase to $70,000.
As of mid-July 2026, Bitcoin is trading near $62,600, requiring a 12% increase to reach $70,000 [manifold.markets](https://manifold.markets/Fugazi/will-btc-cross-70000-before-the-end). Market sentiment reflects moderate optimism, with prediction markets pricing in a 17–19.5% chance on Polymarket and OMINARI [polymarket.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-reach-70k-in-july-2026), while Manifold shows 23% [manifold.markets](https://manifold.markets/Fugazi/will-btc-cross-70000-before-the-end). I adjust slightly upward from market consensus to account for potential macro catalysts and historical volatility patterns.
Bitcoin is currently trading near $62,600 and needs a ~12% rally to reach $70,000 by end-July. Market odds from Polymarket and Manifold are around 19.5-23%, so an independent estimate is set at 0.22.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
As of July 20, 2026, Bitcoin has already reached $65,000 (100% on Polymarket) but is far from $72,500. Polymarket and Myriad markets show only a 5.5% and 12% chance respectively of hitting $72,500 in July, with the $70,000 level at just 19.5%. With only 11 days left in the month and no major catalysts, a surge of over $7,500 from current levels is highly unlikely, though not impossible given crypto volatility.
Current prediction markets, which aggregate diverse trader insights and real-time data, assign about a 5.5% chance that Bitcoin will reach $72,500 in July 2026 on Binance. Given Bitcoin's historical volatility and the relatively high price target compared to recent trends, this low probability aligns with market sentiment and technical analysis. No significant bullish catalysts have emerged to strongly suggest a breakout to this level within the month.
Current market data from prediction platforms like Polymarket and Myriad indicates a very low probability for Bitcoin reaching $72,500 in July 2026. With the month nearing its end and current price action showing significantly lower levels, the likelihood of a sudden, sustained spike to this threshold is minimal.
The current market odds on Polymarket suggest a 5.5% chance, while Myriad markets indicate a 12% chance. Given the volatility of Bitcoin and the historical tendency for significant price movements, a 10% probability seems reasonable, considering the base rate of such events and the specific evidence from prediction markets.
While prediction markets vary, the consensus suggests low single-digit to mid-teens probability. The 11% price increase required is substantial but not unprecedented; however, lack of immediate major catalysts and typical market volatility patterns suggest an 8% probability is a well-calibrated estimate.
Polymarket currently gives a 5.5% chance, and Myriad shows 12% for Bitcoin reaching $72,500 in July 2026 based on Binance 1-minute candle highs.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
As of July 20, 2026, front-month WTI futures are trading near $70, well below the $85 target, with rising inventories, softening demand, and easing geopolitical risks (e.g., US-Iran peace progress) pushing prices downward. The remaining 11 days of July offer limited time for a ~21% price surge, and while volatility is elevated, the base rate for such a large move in a short period is low. Polymarket odds around 72-73% for this event seem overly optimistic given the current fundamental backdrop.
Current market data and trading odds from Polymarket and Orrery indicate about a 72-73% chance that WTI Crude Oil will hit $85 or higher in July 2026. Despite recent price declines to around $70 due to rising inventories and softening demand, volatility remains elevated with geopolitical risks and potential production changes that could push prices above $85. The futures market and expert predictions support a relatively high likelihood of reaching this price level during the month.
Current market data indicates WTI is trading near $70, significantly below the $85 threshold. With global inventories rising and demand softening, the likelihood of a rapid $15 surge in the remaining days of July is low, despite the elevated volatility and geopolitical risks noted in [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-july-2026). The high probability assigned by prediction markets likely reflects speculative positioning rather than fundamental supply-demand alignment.
The current market probability on Polymarket is 73%, indicating a strong likelihood that WTI Crude Oil will hit $85 in July 2026. Recent geopolitical developments, such as progress toward a US-Iran peace deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, have eased supply disruption fears, but volatility remains elevated due to lingering geopolitical risks. The market's resolution hinges on the pace of Middle East production restarts and near-term demand data releases.
As of July 20, 2026, the Polymarket implied probability for WTI Crude Oil hitting $85 in July is 73% [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-wti-reach-85-in-july-2026). This reflects current trader sentiment based on available fundamentals, including easing supply disruption fears due to progress in US-Iran talks and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. However, WTI prices are still subject to volatility from geopolitical risks and fluctuating demand. Despite front-month futures trading near $70 as of late June, the market assigns significant odds to a spike above $85 during intraday trading in July, consistent with historical oil price volatility.
The market is currently priced at around $70, and there are factors that could push it up, but also factors that could keep it lower. It's a balanced situation.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
As of late June 2026, WTI crude oil is trading near $70, well below the $90 threshold. Fundamentals point to easing supply fears (US-Iran deal, Strait of Hormuz reopening), rising inventories, and softening demand, with OPEC+ unwinding cuts adding downward pressure. A $20 rally in the remaining ~10 trading days of July would require a major unexpected supply disruption or demand shock, which appears unlikely given current trends. Historical volatility suggests such large moves are rare in stable conditions, so the probability is low.
Current market data shows a moderate probability for WTI crude oil hitting $90 in July 2026, with related markets pricing the chance around 51.7%. Recent easing of supply disruptions and current prices near $70 suggest a significant price increase is needed, but geopolitical risks and volatility could push prices higher temporarily. Given these factors, a slightly better than even chance is reasonable.
As of late July 2026, WTI Crude Oil futures are trading significantly below the $90 threshold, with recent reports indicating prices near $70 due to softening demand and easing supply disruption fears. Given that the month is nearly over and there is no immediate catalyst for a massive, rapid spike of nearly 30% in the remaining days, the probability of hitting $90 is low.
Recent trends show WTI futures trading near $70 due to easing supply disruptions and rising inventories. While geopolitical risks remain, the market is pricing in a return to surplus conditions, making a spike to $90 less likely. However, volatility and potential Middle East production restarts could drive prices higher.
As of June 2026, WTI crude oil futures are trading near $70, down from earlier peaks due to rising global inventories, softening demand, and improved supply from the Middle East following progress in US-Iran talks [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-july-2026). The market faces downward pressure from non-OPEC supply growth and the unwinding of OPEC+ production cuts. While volatility persists due to geopolitical risks, a sharp move to $90 in July 2026 would require a significant supply shock, which current conditions do not support. Base rates for such a large price spike in a single month are low absent major disruptions.
There is insufficient information provided to accurately determine the probability of WTI Crude Oil hitting $90 in July 2026.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
The question is effectively about the July 28–29 FOMC decision, since the April and June meetings have already passed with pauses. Prediction markets price a July pause above 95%, consistent with the Fed’s steady policy stance, above-target inflation, and lack of a sharp labor market deterioration. The small residual probability accounts for a surprise cut in case of a sudden economic shock, but no such catalyst is visible.
Prediction markets like Polymarket currently assign about a 93% probability to the Fed pausing rates in all three upcoming FOMC meetings (April, June, July 2026). This high confidence is supported by the Fed's recent data-dependent stance, stable but above-target inflation, and a labor market that remains positive though cooling. The absence of strong inflationary or labor market shocks reduces the likelihood of rate hikes or cuts in this period.
As of July 20, 2026, prediction markets on [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decisions-apr-jul) and [explorer.struct.to](https://explorer.struct.to/markets/will-the-fed-pausepausepause-in-the-next-three-decisions-aprjunjul) indicate a high degree of market consensus (approximately 93-96%) that the Federal Reserve will maintain the current federal funds rate through the April, June, and July 2026 meetings. Given that the April and June meetings have already passed without rate changes, the market is effectively pricing in a near-certainty for the final July decision, supported by the Fed's data-dependent stance and persistent inflation levels.
The Federal Reserve has maintained a data-dependent posture with inflation above target and a stable labor market, reducing the likelihood of rate cuts. Prediction markets and Fed futures indicate a high probability of no rate changes in the upcoming meetings, supporting the 'Pause–Pause–Pause' scenario.
Prediction markets show strong consensus on a 'Pause–Pause–Pause' outcome, with implied probabilities ranging from 78.5% to 96% as of mid-July 2026 [lines.com](https://www.lines.com/prediction-markets/economy/fed-decisions-apr-jul). The Federal Reserve has held rates steady since December 2025, and current economic indicators—moderating inflation above target and a cooling but intact labor market—support continued data dependence without urgency to cut [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decisions-apr-jul). Historical base rates and FOMC communication reinforce low likelihood of unexpected moves, though risks remain from CPI surprises or labor market deterioration.
Multiple prediction markets show high probabilities for the Fed to pause rates in all three meetings, with factors like steady current rates and inflation above target supporting this outcome.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Prediction markets (Polymarket, PredictionNinja, Polyguana) show 85–94% probability of no change at the July 28–29 FOMC meeting, reflecting strong consensus that the Fed will hold rates steady. The Fed has maintained a pause in recent meetings, and no major economic surprises have emerged in the days before the meeting. While a small chance of a 25 bps hike or cut exists, the base rate and current signals make no change the overwhelming likely outcome.
Prediction markets such as Polymarket currently assign a 93% probability to no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting, reflecting strong market consensus. The Federal Reserve has shown a tendency to maintain rates when economic indicators are stable, and no major economic shocks are anticipated before the meeting. Given the high liquidity and volume in the market, this probability is well-informed by diverse participants.
Market sentiment and current economic expectations strongly favor the Federal Reserve maintaining the status quo at the July 2026 FOMC meeting. Prediction markets like Polymarket and other forecasting platforms consistently show a high probability (exceeding 90%) for 'no change,' reflecting a consensus that the Fed will likely hold rates steady during this period.
The prediction markets on Polymarket and Polyguana show a high probability (around 93-94%) of no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting. This is based on the collective wisdom of traders who are reacting to current economic data and forecasts. The key factor is the strong consensus in the market, which suggests a high likelihood of no change.
The provided search results indicate that prediction markets are currently assigning high probabilities (ranging from 84.5% to 94%) to no change in the Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting [predictionninja.com](https://predictionninja.com), [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com), [polyguana.com](https://polyguana.com), [polyspotter.com](https://polyspotter.com). These markets reflect the collective expectations of traders based on available economic data and Fed communications. While market odds are not perfect predictors, they are strong indicators of likely outcomes in monetary policy decisions. Therefore, the true probability of no change is high, but not certain, due to potential unforeseen economic shifts before the meeting.
Prediction markets show high probabilities for no change in Fed rates, with key indicators pointing to a likely status quo.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.