Based on the Polymarket probability of 12% for the identical question and the short remaining time (5 days), the chance of a full general closure of Iranian airspace by July 15 is low. While a related 'major closure' market resolved YES, that definition is narrower and does not guarantee a full Tehran FIR closure. Without evidence of an imminent general closure, I estimate a 12% probability.
Iran has previously closed its airspace fully in January and February 2026, but these closures were exceptional and tied to specific political or military events. Since then, there have been partial or regional closures, but no indication of an imminent full closure by July 15, 2026. Given the low frequency of such closures and no current credible reports suggesting a forthcoming full closure, the probability remains low but non-negligible due to geopolitical volatility.
While Iran has experienced multiple airspace closures in early 2026, these were typically linked to specific military tensions or drills. Given that the current date is July 10 and there are no immediate reports of a major, imminent, or general closure of the Tehran FIR, the likelihood of such a significant event occurring within the next five days is low. Market sentiment on prediction platforms also reflects this low probability.
The current probability on Polymarket for a full airspace closure by July 15 is 12% [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-full-airspace-closure-byptptpt-20260625195253028). Historical data shows that full closures are rare and typically tied to specific events. Recent partial closures and suspensions do not meet the criteria for a general closure. The base rate for such events is low, and there is no immediate evidence suggesting an imminent full closure.
Iran has previously implemented major airspace closures during periods of heightened geopolitical tension, such as in January and February 2026 [reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/) and [iranintl.com](https://www.iranintl.com/en/202602289115). However, as of July 10, 2026, there are no active reports of a general closure of Iranian airspace or imminent indications of one. The most recent closures were temporary and tied to specific security concerns. Current conditions do not suggest an ongoing escalation that would necessitate another full closure before July 15. Base rates of such events remain low, and no new military or political triggers have been reported recently.
As of the search date, there is no current indication of an impending full airspace closure by July 15. Previous closures in January and February 2026 do not guarantee a repeat.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Based on current search results showing Polymarket odds of approximately 8–9.5% and the absence of any confirmed recent sightings or credible reports of an upcoming appearance, the true probability is slightly lower than the market. Historical precedent for new Supreme Leaders remaining out of public view for months, combined with the lack of any verifiable evidence of a planned event by July 31, suggests a 5% chance.
Given the high secrecy surrounding Mojtaba Khamenei and the very low market probabilities (around 8-9%) for a public appearance by July 31, 2026, it is unlikely he will be seen publicly. The lack of authoritative sources and the high risk of disputed resolution further reduce confidence in a public appearance. Therefore, a probability near 9.5% aligns with current market sentiment and available information.
Mojtaba Khamenei is known for maintaining a low public profile, and there is no indication of a shift in his strategy to appear publicly before the end of July 2026. Market sentiment on [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/mojtaba-khamenei-public-appearance-by) and [predikciok.com](https://predikciok.com/market/257462) reflects a strong consensus that such an appearance is highly unlikely, consistent with his historical behavior.
Mojtaba Khamenei is known for maintaining a low public profile, similar to his father, the current Supreme Leader of Iran. There is no recent credible evidence or reports suggesting an imminent public appearance by July 31. The base rate for such appearances is low, and the lack of specific evidence further supports this.
Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, is a highly reclusive figure with no confirmed public appearances to date. The current consensus across prediction markets such as [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/mojtaba-khamenei-public-appearance-by) and [Verdict](https://www.ver.watch/markets/2554361) prices the probability of a public appearance by mid-2026 at around 8–10%. This reflects the extremely low base rate of past appearances and the political sensitivity surrounding the Khamenei family. Given the lack of any recent signals of increased visibility and the regime's tendency to shield religious figures from public view, the probability remains very low.
The Polymarket market shows a 9.5% probability for 'Yes' and 90.5% for 'No', indicating low likelihood. Key factors include the market's implied probability, the need for authentic and timely images/videos, and lack of explicit resolution sources.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
The Polymarket prediction market, which has seen $8.3 million in volume, currently prices the chance of Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal (7-day moving average of transit calls ≥ 60) by July 15 at only 1%. This low probability reflects the severe disruption in the strait, likely due to geopolitical tensions or military actions, and the very short remaining time (only 5 days) to achieve a sustained recovery. Without any reported improvement in the data, the chance of a rapid return to normal is extremely slim.
The current prediction market on Polymarket, which aggregates informed trader opinions and real-time data, assigns only a 1% probability that Strait of Hormuz traffic will return to normal levels (7-day moving average of 60 or more transit calls) by July 15, 2026. Given the low market confidence and the lack of evidence suggesting a rapid normalization of traffic, the probability remains very low.
The market for this event is currently trading at a 1% probability on [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-15). Given that the resolution date is July 15, 2026, and the current date is July 10, 2026, there is insufficient time for a significant, sustained recovery in shipping traffic to reach the required 7-day moving average threshold of 60 transit calls, especially if current conditions remain disrupted.
The Polymarket prediction market currently assigns a 1% probability to the event, reflecting the collective judgment of traders. Given the low market probability and no significant evidence suggesting a rapid return to normal traffic, the independent probability remains low.
The Polymarket prediction market for this event currently assigns a 1% probability to the 'Yes' outcome, reflecting collective trader expectations based on real-time information and developments [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-15). The resolution depends on IMF Portwatch reporting a 7-day moving average of 60 or more ship arrivals, a threshold that has not yet been met as of the latest data. Given the lack of recent indications of such a rebound and the market's sensitivity to ongoing geopolitical and shipping conditions, the probability remains very low.
The current crowd-sourced probability from Polymarket is 1% for the event resolving YES, with the resolution based on IMF Portwatch's 7-day moving average of transit calls being at least 60.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
The market requires the 7-day moving average of transit calls to reach 60 by July 31, 2026. Current data (not explicitly provided but implied by the 5% market odds) suggests traffic is well below that threshold, and only about three weeks remain. While a sudden de-escalation of regional tensions could boost traffic, the short timeframe and lack of recent positive trends make a recovery to 60 unlikely. I assign a 10% probability, slightly above the market price, to account for the possibility of a rapid but improbable improvement.
The current crowd-sourced market probability for the Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by July 31, 2026, is around 30%, reflecting significant uncertainty and ongoing disruptions in the region. The Strait is a critical maritime chokepoint, and while traffic could recover, geopolitical tensions and regional instability make a full return to normal traffic levels by the deadline uncertain. The specific threshold of a 7-day moving average of 60 or more ship arrivals is a strict criterion, and recent data trends have not strongly indicated a sustained recovery to that level yet.
The market relies on a specific technical threshold (a 7-day moving average of 60 transit calls) from IMF Portwatch. While current market sentiment is volatile and generally skeptical, the threshold is a statistical measure that can be influenced by seasonal fluctuations or temporary surges in shipping activity. Given the proximity to the July 31 deadline and the lack of clear evidence that traffic is trending toward this specific threshold, a probability below 50% is warranted, though slightly higher than the lowest market estimates to account for potential data volatility.
The current crowd-sourced probability on Polymarket is 5% for 'Yes' [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31). However, considering the historical data and the potential for a recovery in shipping traffic, I adjust the probability slightly upwards. The key factors include the current low market probability, the historical shipping data trends, and the potential for regional stability improvements.
While recent market prices vary, the underlying condition requires a specific threshold in IMF Portwatch data. Geopolitical risks persist, limiting confidence in sustained traffic recovery. However, the possibility of improvement before July 2026 keeps the probability above near-zero levels.
The Polymarket odds have shifted from 5% to 30%, indicating a higher probability. The market resolves based on IMF Portwatch's 7-day moving average of transit calls being above 60.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Multiple credible sources confirm that indirect U.S.-Iran talks have already occurred in Doha (July 1-2, 2026) and that the next round is scheduled for July 11 in Pakistan, with senior-level participation expected after the funeral of the late Supreme Leader. The Polymarket market also shows 90% odds. Given the established diplomatic momentum and explicit scheduling, the probability of a qualifying senior-level round by July 31 is high, though the exact seniority of representatives and formal convening remain to be confirmed.
Recent rounds of indirect talks between the US and Iran, mediated by Qatar and Pakistan, have shown positive progress and agreement to continue discussions, with a next round scheduled soon after the late Iranian Supreme Leader's funeral. The parties have established communication channels and addressed key issues such as frozen Iranian funds and regional conflicts. Given the momentum and official acknowledgments, a formal senior-level diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026, is highly likely.
Multiple credible sources report that a new round of indirect negotiations between the United States and Iran is scheduled to take place in Pakistan on July 11, 2026 [internews.pk](https://internews.pk/eng/2026/07/04/pakistan-to-host-next-round-of-us-iran-talks-on-july-11-saudi-media/). Given that these talks are a continuation of the established diplomatic process involving senior-level mediation by Qatar and Pakistan, they meet the criteria for a qualifying diplomatic meeting under the market rules [aljazeera.com](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/2/us-iran-talks-in-doha-what-were-the-outcomes-and-whats-next/).
Recent diplomatic efforts between the U.S. and Iran, mediated by Qatar and Pakistan, have shown positive progress. The next round of talks is scheduled for July 11, 2026, in Pakistan, indicating a high likelihood of continued engagement. The parties have agreed to establish communication channels and address key issues, suggesting a strong commitment to further negotiations.
Senior-level indirect talks have already occurred in early July 2026, with clear commitments from both sides and mediators to continue. The next round is actively scheduled for mid-July in Pakistan, well before the July 31 deadline. Given the momentum and public confirmation by mediators, a qualifying diplomatic meeting is highly likely to occur.
There is a scheduled meeting on July 11 as per reports, positive progress has been made, and the deadline is July 31, making a meeting likely.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
The prediction market consensus is 40.5%, which is a reasonable starting point. Historical base rates for a 10%+ intraday drop in a month are roughly 30-50%, and the one-minute candle rule makes the event more likely than a daily close. Given no dramatic new information, I estimate 40%.
Market data from Polymarket indicates a 40.5% chance that Bitcoin will dip to $57,500 or lower on Binance during July 2026. This probability reflects current market sentiment and trading activity, which is a strong indicator given the direct use of Binance 1-minute candle data for resolution. Considering Bitcoin's volatility and recent price trends, this estimate is reasonable.
The probability is based on current market sentiment and trading data from prediction platforms, which reflect a 40.5% likelihood of Bitcoin hitting the $57,500 threshold during July 2026. Given the inherent volatility of cryptocurrency markets, this estimate aligns with the consensus of traders actively monitoring Binance price action.
The current market probability on Polymarket indicates a 40.5% chance that Bitcoin will dip to $57,500 in July. This is supported by historical data and market trends, which show a similar probability for significant price movements in the past. The key factors include market volatility, historical price movements, and current trading volumes.
The Polymarket odds reflect a 40.5% chance of Bitcoin dipping to $57,500 in July 2026, based on real-money trading. This represents a significant increase from June's 14%, indicating growing expectation of a dip. Given the market's liquidity and the reliability of Binance as a resolution source, the probability is well-calibrated and reflects current trader sentiment.
Polymarket currently prices the probability of Bitcoin dipping to $57,500 in July at 40.5%.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
As of July 10, 2026, Polymarket traders give the event a 34.5% probability (with recent volume of ~$560K), while a related market for Bitcoin hitting $67,500 in July shows around 59% on some platforms but 34% on others. The current Bitcoin price is likely well below $67,500 (since the $65k market has 86.5% odds, but the $67.5k market is much lower). Given that only 21 days remain in July and Bitcoin would need a sharp rally of several thousand dollars, the base rate of such large moves in a short timeframe is low. The mixed prediction market signals, combined with the typical volatility dynamics, suggest roughly a one-in-three chance.
Prediction markets on Polymarket currently assign about a 34.5% chance that Bitcoin will reach $67,500 in July 2026, reflecting moderate optimism but significant uncertainty. Given Bitcoin's historical volatility and recent market trends, reaching this price level within the month is plausible but not highly likely. The market's substantial trading volume and liquidity suggest these odds are well-informed by collective trader sentiment.
Market sentiment across various prediction platforms shows significant variance, with probabilities ranging from approximately 34% to 59%. Given that Bitcoin is currently trading near the $65,000 threshold, reaching $67,500 requires a relatively modest upward move, but market volatility remains unpredictable for the remainder of July.
The prediction markets on Polymarket show varying probabilities for Bitcoin reaching $67,500 in July 2026, with the most recent data indicating a 59% chance [polymarket.copilot.markets](https://polymarket.copilot.markets/event/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-july-2026). However, another source shows a 34.5% probability [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-reach-67pt5k-in-july-2026). Given the volatility and the fact that Bitcoin has shown significant price movements in the past, a middle ground probability of 45% seems reasonable.
The current market-implied probability on Polymarket for Bitcoin reaching $67,500 in July 2026 is around 34.5% [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-reach-67pt5k-in-july-2026), which reflects real-money betting activity and is generally well-calibrated. This level is above the current price and represents a significant move, making it plausible but not likely. I adjust slightly upward from the market price due to Bitcoin's historical volatility and potential macro catalysts, but maintain a cautious stance given the lack of strong bullish fundamentals as of mid-2026.
Polymarket currently gives a 34.5% chance, and considering the resolution criteria based on Binance 1-minute candles, this is a key factor.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Polymarket currently prices this event at 27.5%, and the related market for $67,500 is at 34.5% while the market for $65,000 is at 86.5%. This suggests the market sees a significant drop-off in probability between $65,000 and $70,000, consistent with Bitcoin needing a roughly 8%+ rally from current levels (near $65,000) to hit $70,000. Given the short remaining time in July and no major catalyst, a 28% probability is reasonable.
Market data from Polymarket indicates a 27.5% probability that Bitcoin will reach $70,000 on Binance's BTC/USDT pair during July 2026. This reflects current trader sentiment and price action expectations, which are moderate given recent volatility and the proximity to the $65,000 level that has a higher probability. Given the market-based forecast and the specific resolution criteria, a probability near 28% is reasonable.
Current market sentiment and trading data on prediction platforms like [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-reach-70k-in-july-2026) indicate a 27.5% probability for Bitcoin reaching $70,000 in July 2026. Given the volatility of Bitcoin and the specific requirement for a single 1-minute candle to hit the target on the Binance BTC/USDT pair, the current market pricing reflects the prevailing uncertainty and recent price trends.
The prediction market Polymarket currently prices a 27.5% probability that Bitcoin will reach $70,000 in July 2026. This market-based estimate is a key factor in assessing the likelihood. Additionally, the market for Bitcoin reaching $65,000 in July shows an 86.5% probability, indicating a higher confidence in reaching a lower threshold. These market odds suggest a moderate chance of Bitcoin hitting $70,000, considering the current trading volumes and market sentiment.
The current market-implied probability on Polymarket for Bitcoin reaching $70,000 in July 2026 is 27.5%, based on real-time trading data [Polymarket](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-reach-70k-in-july-2026). This reflects collective trader expectations using Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute high prices as the resolution source. Given the lack of major exogenous catalysts and the current price trajectory, this probability aligns with a well-calibrated forecast.
Polymarket currently prices a 27.5% probability that Bitcoin reaches $70,000 in July 2026 based on Binance's 1-minute candle high data.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
unparseable forecast JSON
Current prediction markets assign about an 8% probability that WTI Crude Oil will hit $80 or higher in July 2026. This low probability reflects market expectations based on futures prices, supply-demand forecasts, and geopolitical factors as of mid-2026. Given the volatility of oil prices but the relatively low market-implied chance, an 8% probability is reasonable.
Current market data from prediction platforms indicates that the probability of WTI Crude Oil reaching $80 in July 2026 is estimated at approximately 7-8%. Given the current trading environment and market sentiment, there is no strong evidence suggesting a significant enough price surge to reach the $80 threshold within the specified timeframe.
The prediction market on Polymarket indicates a 25% probability that WTI Crude Oil will hit $85 or higher in July 2026 [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-wti-reach-85-in-july-2026). Given that $80 is a lower threshold than $85, it is reasonable to assume that the probability of hitting $80 is higher. However, the market's assessment for $85 suggests a significant uncertainty, and thus, the probability for $80 is adjusted to 25% considering the base rate and specific evidence.
While the prediction market suggests a low probability (~7%), such markets can be thin and may not fully reflect tail risks. Historical volatility and potential macroeconomic or geopolitical catalysts justify a slightly higher independent estimate of 12%.
Based on Polymarket data, the '↑ $80' outcome has 8% odds. Considering limited additional context, the probability is estimated at 0.10.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
As of July 10, 2026, WTI crude oil is trading around $70, and prediction markets on Polymarket and PredictionNinja show a ~35% probability of hitting $65 in July. The market has been relatively stable near $70, and a drop to $65 would require a significant bearish catalyst (e.g., demand shock, OPEC+ surprise, or macro downturn) that is not currently evident. Base rates for such a move within a month are moderate, but the current price level and lack of strong downward momentum suggest a lower probability.
Current prediction markets and trading data indicate a roughly 65% chance that WTI Crude Oil will hit a low of $65 at some point during July 2026. This probability reflects market consensus and liquidity, considering typical price volatility and trading patterns for WTI futures in that timeframe.
Market sentiment on Polymarket [polymarket.com] shows significant volatility in expectations, with the probability of hitting $65 fluctuating as traders weigh global supply-demand dynamics against current price levels. While the market currently prices this outcome at around 45%, the inherent volatility of oil futures means that a dip to $65 is a plausible scenario if macroeconomic headwinds or supply surpluses intensify during July 2026.
The prediction markets show a range of probabilities, with PredictionNinja at 65% and Polymarket at 45%. Given the volatility in oil prices and the potential for economic or geopolitical events to drive prices down, a 55% probability seems reasonable. Key factors include current market trends, geopolitical stability, and economic indicators.
The current prediction market on Polymarket shows a 65% probability for WTI Crude Oil hitting a low of $65 in July 2026 [predictionninja.com](https://predictionninja.com/market/will-wti-dip-to-65-in-july-2026), which reflects aggregated trader expectations. This is consistent across multiple platforms, with Polymarket listing the '↓ $65' outcome at 45% but contextual analysis and normalization suggesting a higher implied probability of 65% [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-july-2026). Given the liquidity and real-time pricing, this serves as a strong indicator of the true probability.
Current market probabilities from prediction platforms are considered, with a midpoint taken.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
As of July 10, 2026, the US naval blockade on Iran was formally lifted on June 18 following a diplomatic agreement that suspended hostilities and eased sanctions, establishing a 60-day window for negotiations on Iran's nuclear program [hkimarket.com](https://hkimarket.com/event/us-announces-blockade-on-iran-byptptpt-20260622191049039/will-the-us-announce-a-blockade-on-iran-by-july-31-20260622191116912). While President Trump's recent comments have increased market odds of a new blockade announcement to around 22-27% by end of July [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-blockade-on-iran-byptptpt-20260622191049039), [cryptobriefing.com](https://cryptobriefing.com/iran-blockade-odds-rise-after-trump-comments-amid-escalating-tensions/), the current diplomatic momentum, ongoing negotiations, and the fact that maritime commerce through the Strait of Hormuz has resumed make a sudden reimposition of a full naval blockade within the next 21 days unlikely but not impossible.
Recent market data and expert analysis indicate a moderate but not high probability of the US announcing a naval blockade on Iran by July 31, 2026. While President Trump's recent comments and escalating regional tensions have increased the likelihood, the overall probability remains relatively low due to the significant geopolitical risks and the preference for diplomatic or less escalatory measures. The probability is consistent with current market pricing and expert sentiment.
While recent rhetoric from President Trump has increased market speculation regarding a potential blockade, there is no official indication that the U.S. is moving toward such a drastic escalation before the July 31 deadline. The current diplomatic environment, despite tensions, does not suggest an imminent shift to a formal naval blockade, which would be a significant departure from current policy. Market pricing reflects this uncertainty, with probabilities remaining relatively low.
The recent escalation in tensions between the US and Iran, including military strikes and the collapse of a ceasefire agreement, has increased the likelihood of a blockade announcement. However, the probability remains relatively low due to the lack of concrete official statements and the ongoing diplomatic efforts. The market odds reflect a cautious sentiment, with a significant increase but still below 30%.
The U.S. officially lifted the naval blockade on Iran in mid-June 2026, and no qualifying official announcement of a new blockade has occurred since. While recent political rhetoric has increased market speculation, as seen in rising odds on prediction platforms, the probability remains low due to the absence of an official, declarative statement through proper channels. The base rate of such escalations without concrete action, combined with ongoing diplomatic engagement, suggests a 25% chance of a qualifying announcement before July 31.
Current market odds (hkimarket: 16.3% Yes, Polymarket: 22% Yes) are low, and recent diplomacy has eased tensions, reducing the likelihood of a July 31 announcement.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Prediction markets (Polymarket, Polyguana, PredictionNinja, OddsShift) consistently assign an 84–86% probability to no change, reflecting strong consensus among informed traders. Fed minutes from the June 2026 meeting indicate a divided committee that nevertheless voted unanimously to hold, with projections showing no cut before early 2027—making a hold the clear base case for July [OddsShift](https://oddsshift.com/radar/will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-july-2026-meeting). While hawkish tail risks (e.g., Middle East conflict pushing hike odds) exist, the overwhelming market weight and central tendency of FOMC guidance support an approximately 84% chance of unchanged rates.
Prediction markets like Polymarket and others currently price the probability of no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting at about 85%. This reflects the market consensus that the Federal Open Market Committee is likely to hold rates steady, given typical FOMC behavior of infrequent rate changes and current economic indicators. The main alternative is a 25 basis point increase, priced much lower, indicating less likelihood of a hike.
Market participants and analysts overwhelmingly expect the Federal Reserve to maintain the current interest rate range at the July 2026 meeting. Recent FOMC minutes indicate a divided committee that prefers to hold rates steady until there is more clarity on inflation and labor market trends, making a 'no change' decision the base case scenario.
The prediction markets consistently show a high probability (85-86%) of no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting. This is supported by the historical tendency of the Fed to maintain rates unless there is significant economic data suggesting otherwise. The key factors include recent economic indicators, Fed communications, and the baseline expectation of stability.
Current prediction market odds consistently price a 'no change' outcome at around 85%, reflecting strong consensus. The Fed typically maintains rates unchanged unless prompted by significant economic shifts, and no such shift is currently expected for July 2026. Therefore, the true probability of no change is estimated at 0.85.
Prediction markets show high odds of no change, with Polymarket at 86% and Polyguana at 78%, indicating strong market consensus.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.