The Polymarket and Orrery markets show that this question has already resolved to 'Yes' as of July 11, 2026, with 100% implied probability and a 'Resolved YES' status. This indicates that Iran has initiated a general closure of its airspace meeting the definition before the July 15 deadline. Therefore, the event has already occurred, making the probability 1.0.
The market for Iran closing its airspace by July 15, 2026, has already resolved YES with 100% implied probability on Polymarket, indicating that Iran has indeed initiated a general closure of its airspace by the specified date. This is confirmed by the UMA optimistic oracle resolution and credible reporting sources.
As of July 11, 2026, prediction markets like [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-closes-its-airspace-by) indicate a near-certainty (100% implied probability) that this event will occur. Given the high market consensus and the specific nature of the resolution criteria, it is highly probable that a formal closure will be announced or has already been factored into the market's current state.
The current Polymarket probability for this event is 12%, which is a significant indicator. Historical data shows that Iran has had previous airspace closures, but they were not frequent. The current geopolitical situation does not suggest an imminent closure, and there are no recent reports indicating an upcoming closure.
While Iran has precedent for full airspace closures, there is no current evidence of an active general closure as of July 11, 2026. The lack of corroborating reports from primary sources like Reuters or Iranian authorities suggests the probability remains low. Market prices at 100% are not aligned with observable facts, indicating possible manipulation or illiquidity rather than certainty.
As of July 11, 2026, Polymarket shows 100% implied probability, and the market is resolved as YES via UMA optimistic oracle.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
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There is very limited public evidence or credible reports of Mojtaba Khamenei appearing in public recently, and market data suggests a very low probability (around 4-8%) of a public appearance by mid-July 2026. The high risk and ambiguity in resolution criteria further reduce confidence in a positive outcome. Given the secrecy around his appearances and the lack of recent sightings, a low probability is appropriate.
Mojtaba Khamenei is known for maintaining a low public profile, and there is no credible evidence or scheduled event suggesting he will make a public appearance by July 15, 2026. Prediction markets consistently reflect a very low probability for this event, aligning with his historical tendency to avoid the public eye.
The market probabilities across multiple platforms consistently show a very low likelihood of Mojtaba Khamenei being seen in public by July 15, 2026, with most estimates around 3-4%. This suggests a strong consensus that such an appearance is highly unlikely in the near term.
The extremely low market-implied probability and lack of any verified public appearances to date suggest a very low likelihood of Mojtaba Khamenei being seen publicly by July 15, 2026. While digital appearances are allowed, there is no evidence of any planned events, and his continued seclusion supports a near-zero base rate for such an event.
Multiple markets show low probabilities for Mojtaba Khamenei being seen in public by July 15, with Polymarket and other sources indicating around 4% chance.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Polymarket and other prediction platforms show a consensus price around 8-9% for this event, reflecting the market's assessment that Mojtaba Khamenei is unlikely to make a public appearance before July 31. As the newly appointed Supreme Leader, he has maintained a very low public profile, and there is no recent precedent or scheduled event that would necessitate a public appearance. The low probability also accounts for the strict resolution criteria requiring authentic, newly captured images or video, which further reduces the chance of a qualifying event.
Mojtaba Khamenei has not been publicly seen recently, and the market sentiment strongly favors a 'No' outcome with only about 8-9% probability for a public appearance by July 31, 2026. The lack of credible recent sightings and the high risk of disputed or unclear resolution criteria further reduce the likelihood of a confirmed public appearance.
Mojtaba Khamenei maintains a low public profile, and there is no indication of a shift in his strategy to appear in public media before the end of July 2026. Prediction markets like [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/mojtaba-khamenei-seen-in-public-by-july-31) currently reflect a very low probability for this event, consistent with his historical avoidance of public scrutiny.
Mojtaba Khamenei, as the Supreme Leader of Iran, has a history of limited public appearances. Recent markets and predictions suggest a low probability of his public appearance by July 31, with most estimates around 4-9%. The lack of authoritative sources and the reliance on vague terms for resolution further increase uncertainty.
unparseable forecast JSON
Based on available market data and factors like resolution source clarity, the probability is low.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
The Polymarket crowd assigns a 1% probability to this event, reflecting the severe disruption in the Strait of Hormuz that has driven transit calls well below the 60 threshold. With only a few days left until July 15, 2026, and no indication of a rapid recovery in shipping traffic, the chance of the 7-day moving average reaching 60 is extremely low. The market's high liquidity ($8.3M volume) suggests informed participants have priced in the ongoing crisis, and no recent news indicates a swift normalization.
Current prediction markets, which aggregate diverse information and trader sentiment, assign only about a 1% chance that Strait of Hormuz traffic will return to normal levels (7-day average of 60 or more transit calls) by July 15, 2026. Given ongoing geopolitical tensions and disruptions in the region, the likelihood remains very low. There is no recent evidence suggesting a rapid normalization of traffic in the near term.
The prediction market on Polymarket has consistently priced this event at approximately 1% probability, reflecting a strong consensus that shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz will not reach the required threshold of 60 transit calls (7-day moving average) by the July 15, 2026 deadline. Given the current date is July 11, 2026, there is insufficient time for a significant, sustained recovery in traffic to meet the specific IMF Portwatch data criteria.
The Polymarket prediction market currently assigns a 1% probability to the event, reflecting the collective judgment of market participants. Given the lack of recent geopolitical or logistical improvements in the Strait of Hormuz and the low market confidence, this estimate seems reasonable.
Based on current IMF Portwatch data and ongoing regional instability, traffic levels remain well below the 60-threshold. The Polymarket crowd-sourced probability of 1% aligns with the lack of evidence for a near-term normalization, supporting a very low but non-zero probability estimate.
The Polymarket crowd currently assigns a 1% probability, and there's no additional information to suggest a significant change.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
With only 20 days until the deadline, the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transit calls would need to reach 60, implying a significant and sustained increase from current levels. Current market odds (5%) and the short remaining time frame make a rapid recovery unlikely, though not impossible if a major geopolitical breakthrough occurs.
Current prediction markets and crowd-sourced probabilities assign a very low chance (around 5%) that the Strait of Hormuz traffic will return to the defined normal level by July 31, 2026. This low probability reflects ongoing regional tensions, disruptions in shipping, and the difficulty in reaching the threshold of a 7-day moving average of 60 transit calls. Without significant improvements or stabilization in the region, the traffic is unlikely to reach the specified normal level by the deadline.
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical maritime chokepoint, and while traffic levels are generally high, achieving a 7-day moving average of 60 transit calls as defined by IMF Portwatch requires consistent, high-volume activity. Given current geopolitical tensions and potential disruptions in the region, it is uncertain whether shipping volumes will reach or sustain this specific threshold before the July 31, 2026, deadline.
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical shipping lane, and traffic disruptions are relatively rare. Historical data from IMF Portwatch shows that transit calls typically average around 60 or higher in normal conditions. Given the current geopolitical stability in the region and no recent reports of significant disruptions, it is likely that the 7-day moving average will reach or exceed 60 by July 31, 2026.
As of the latest data, the 7-day moving average of ship arrivals in the Strait of Hormuz remains well below the threshold of 60 required for a 'Yes' resolution. Current averages are in the range of 20–35, and there has been no sustained upward trend indicating a return to pre-disruption levels by July 31, 2026. Geopolitical tensions, ongoing regional conflicts, and continued rerouting of vessels due to risk avoidance suggest that traffic is unlikely to recover to the specified level in the remaining time. The Polymarket odds, currently at 5%, reflect this low likelihood, though my assessment is slightly more conservative due to lack of recent positive signals [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31).
There is a possibility of meeting the 7-day moving average of 60 or above for transit calls by July 31, 2026, but uncertainty remains due to potential disruptions.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Recent indirect technical talks in Doha (July 1–2, 2026) signal ongoing willingness to engage, and both sides have agreed to schedule further discussions after the former Supreme Leader's funeral, making a senior-level round plausible within the remaining 20 days. However, the resolution criteria require a new formally convened senior-level round, explicitly excluding follow-on technical talks. Given the recent technical talks and the expected funeral-related pause, the window for arranging such a high-level round is tight but feasible. Prediction markets show high confidence (~90%), but their criteria are broader; adjusting for the stricter definition here lowers the estimate to 65%.
Recent indirect talks between the US and Iran have shown progress, including agreements on communication channels and frozen funds, with mediators indicating positive developments. While direct senior-level talks have not yet occurred, the established communication and ongoing diplomatic engagement, along with market odds at 90%, suggest a high likelihood of a formal senior-level meeting by July 31, 2026. The political will and mediation efforts support this outcome despite some unresolved issues.
Recent reports confirm that US and Iranian negotiators have been actively engaged in indirect, in-person diplomatic talks in Doha as of early July 2026, following the June roadmap agreement. These meetings, facilitated by Qatar and Pakistan, involve senior-level diplomatic processes aimed at addressing the MoU, the Strait of Hormuz, and nuclear program negotiations, which satisfy the criteria for a formal diplomatic round.
Recent diplomatic engagements between the U.S. and Iran, including the June 22 talks in Switzerland and the July 2 meetings in Doha, indicate a strong likelihood of continued negotiations. The establishment of a communication channel and the progress toward a roadmap for a final deal suggest that another formal meeting by July 31 is probable.
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There have been indirect technical talks in Doha with an agreement to continue discussions, but no confirmed senior-level in-person meeting by July 31. Ongoing diplomatic momentum suggests a reasonable chance but not a certainty.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
The Polymarket prediction market for Bitcoin reaching $70,000 in July 2026 shows a probability of 24.5% as of July 11, 2026. This is a well-traded market with $6.2M volume, suggesting efficient aggregation of information. Historical base rates for such a move are lower (~8%), but current price levels and volatility support a higher chance. Given no strong reason to deviate from the market consensus, I estimate a 24% probability.
Market data from Polymarket and PredictMarketCap indicates a roughly 24.5% probability that Bitcoin will reach $70,000 on Binance during July 2026. This is consistent with historical volatility and recent price trends, where Bitcoin is currently below $65,000 and would need a significant rally to hit $70,000. The probability is lower than for reaching $65,000 or $67,500, reflecting the increasing difficulty of higher price targets within the month.
Current market sentiment and prediction data from [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-july-2026) and [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-reach-70k-in-july-2026) indicate a probability of approximately 24-25% for Bitcoin reaching $70,000 in July 2026. Given that Bitcoin is currently trading below this threshold and requires a significant upward move to hit the target, the market reflects a cautious outlook on volatility and momentum for the remainder of the month.
The market odds from Polymarket suggest a 24.5% probability that Bitcoin will reach $70,000 in July 2026. This is a significant indicator, as prediction markets often reflect collective wisdom and current market sentiment. Additionally, the market for Bitcoin reaching $67,500 in July shows a higher probability of 51.5%, indicating that $70,000 is a more ambitious target but still within a plausible range given the current market conditions and historical volatility of Bitcoin.
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Polymarket currently prices a 24.5% probability that Bitcoin reaches $70,000 in July 2026 based on Binance's 1-minute candle high prices.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Based on current market cap standings and prediction market odds (86-90%), NVIDIA is heavily favored to remain the largest company by July 31. The short time horizon and lack of imminent negative catalysts support a high probability, though a small chance of a surprise shift (e.g., Apple rally or NVIDIA decline) keeps the estimate slightly below the market's upper bound.
Current prediction markets assign about an 89% probability that NVIDIA will remain the largest company by market cap on July 31, 2026. This is supported by NVIDIA's strong market position driven by AI semiconductor demand, sustained enterprise contracts, and favorable earnings expectations. The main challengers, Apple and Microsoft, would need significant positive catalysts combined with NVIDIA setbacks to overtake it within the short timeframe, which appears unlikely given current data.
NVIDIA currently maintains a significant lead in market capitalization driven by sustained demand for AI infrastructure and Blackwell GPU architecture. Given the short time frame until July 31, 2026, it would require a major negative catalyst—such as a significant earnings miss or supply chain disruption—for a competitor like Apple or Microsoft to close the valuation gap.
NVIDIA has consistently held the largest market cap position, with prediction markets assigning it an 89.5% probability of retaining this position through July 31. The company's strong performance in AI semiconductor revenue and sustained demand for its GPUs support this valuation. However, the possibility of a significant earnings miss, regulatory action, or a sharp decline in stock price could shift the outcome, keeping the probability slightly below 90%.
unparseable forecast JSON
NVIDIA has a high implied probability in prediction markets, strong AI semiconductor performance, and sustained enterprise demand, with limited near-term catalysts to shift the outcome.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Polymarket odds for WTI hitting $80 in July 2026 are around 30% as of late June 2026, reflecting current market sentiment. WTI crude oil prices are influenced by global supply-demand dynamics, geopolitical risks, and macroeconomic factors; recent trading suggests moderate volatility but no strong catalyst to push prices above $80. The 30% probability aligns with the base rate of such price spikes in a typical month, adjusted for current market conditions.
Current prediction markets assign about a 30% probability that WTI Crude Oil will hit $80 or higher in July 2026. Given the volatility of oil prices and the fact that $70 is considered almost certain while $80 is less so, a 30% chance reflects a moderate likelihood of reaching this price point. Market expectations and historical price fluctuations support this moderate probability rather than a near certainty or very low chance.
The market for WTI Crude Oil hitting $80 in July 2026 is currently trading at approximately 30% on prediction platforms like Polymarket [polymarket.com]. Given the current volatility and market sentiment, reaching $80 requires a significant upward move from recent price levels, making it a less likely outcome compared to lower price targets.
The prediction market on Polymarket currently assigns a 30% probability to WTI Crude Oil hitting $80 in July 2026, as indicated by the price of the '↑ $80' outcome. This market-based probability reflects the collective judgment of traders who consider various factors such as current oil prices, geopolitical risks, and economic indicators. Additionally, the market for WTI hitting $85 in July 2026 shows a 14.5% probability, suggesting that $80 is a more likely but still uncertain outcome.
Base rate for oil exceeding $80 in recent years is moderate, and current futures markets and prediction markets suggest a roughly 30% chance. The Polymarket odds for $80 (~30%) and $85 (~14.5–25%) imply a smooth decline in probability, supporting a ~32% independent estimate. Given the consensus view and historical volatility, this level is plausible but not likely.
Polymarket data shows the '↑ $80' outcome has a 30% probability.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
The Polymarket prediction market for WTI Crude Oil hitting $65 in July 2026 currently shows a 65% probability, with significant volume and liquidity, indicating informed trader consensus. The June market for the same level resolved at 96% No, suggesting $65 was not reached then, but July conditions may differ due to seasonal demand shifts and potential supply disruptions. Given the market's efficient aggregation of information and the specific 1-minute candle resolution criteria, 65% is a well-calibrated estimate.
Market data from prediction platforms and trading markets currently assign about a 65% probability that WTI Crude Oil will hit a low of $65 in July 2026. This reflects moderate market expectations of a price dip to that level during the month, considering current futures prices, volatility, and trading patterns. The detailed resolution criteria and trading session rules support reliable price tracking for this event.
The market sentiment and current trading data from [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-july-2026) indicate a 65% probability that WTI Crude Oil will touch the $65 level during July 2026. Given the volatility inherent in energy markets and the specific resolution criteria—which only requires a single 1-minute candle to hit the target—the probability of touching this threshold is elevated compared to a simple end-of-month price prediction.
The prediction markets consistently show a 65% probability that WTI Crude Oil will hit $65 or lower in July 2026. This suggests a significant likelihood based on aggregated market sentiment and data analysis. The key factors include current market trends, historical price movements, and economic indicators that influence oil prices.
unparseable forecast JSON
The market currently shows a live probability of 65% for WTI Crude Oil hitting (LOW) $65 in July 2026, with no overriding factors significantly altering this expectation.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
The US and Iran are currently in a 60-day diplomatic window following a June 17 MOU that lifted the previous blockade. While Trump's recent comments have raised tensions and market odds, a formal blockade announcement by July 31 would require a dramatic breakdown in talks and a clear declarative statement from an official source. Given the short remaining time and the ongoing negotiations, the probability is low but not negligible, consistent with market pricing around 22-27%.
Recent market data and expert analysis indicate a relatively low but notable probability (around 27%) of the US announcing a naval blockade on Iran by July 31. This reflects increased tensions and more aggressive US posturing following President Trump's comments, but no definitive official announcement has been made yet, and diplomatic efforts continue. The probability is higher than earlier in the year but remains below 30%, consistent with the cautious stance of the US government and the complexity of escalating to a formal blockade.
While market sentiment has fluctuated due to aggressive rhetoric from the administration, there is no official indication that a formal naval blockade is imminent. The current diplomatic environment, despite tensions, does not suggest a shift toward such a drastic escalation before the July 31 deadline, as a blockade would represent a significant departure from current policy and carry immense geopolitical risks.
The probability is based on recent market data and political context. The base rate for such announcements is low, but recent escalations and Trump's comments have increased the likelihood. However, the current diplomatic momentum and recent de-escalation efforts suggest a lower probability.
Recent comments by President Trump have increased market sentiment and the perceived likelihood of a U.S. naval blockade on Iran by July 31, 2026. However, no official announcement has been made, and the U.S. had previously lifted its blockade following a June 17 memorandum of understanding [hkimarket.com](https://hkimarket.com/event/us-announces-blockade-on-iran-byptptpt-20260622191049039/will-the-us-announce-a-blockade-on-iran-by-july-31-20260622191116912). While tensions have escalated, leading to a rise in probability from 10% to 27% [cryptobriefing.com](https://cryptobriefing.com/iran-blockade-odds-rise-after-trump-comments-amid-escalating-tensions/), the absence of an official, unambiguous declaration through proper channels keeps the probability moderate. The key factors are the lack of formal announcement, ongoing diplomatic context, and reliance on official U.S. government statements for resolution.
Current market odds are low, around 22-27%, with a recent increase from Trump's comments, but overall likelihood remains relatively low.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
The best available information from prediction markets (Polymarket, Prediction Genius) shows a consensus probability of roughly 78-79% for no change in Fed interest rates at the July 2026 FOMC meeting. This is supported by the base rate: the Fed changes rates only at a minority of meetings, and recent economic data (sticky but moderating inflation, resilient labor market) along with Fed communications suggest a patient stance. The market odds are a strong signal, so I adopt 0.78 as my probability.
Current prediction markets, which aggregate diverse trader insights and real-time data, assign a 78% probability to no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting. Historically, the Fed changes rates only at a fraction of its meetings, and the default expectation is often to hold rates steady unless inflation or labor data strongly suggest otherwise. The market odds reflect this baseline and the absence of strong signals for a hike or cut at this time.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) typically maintains interest rates unless there is a significant shift in economic data regarding inflation or labor markets. Prediction markets currently reflect a strong consensus for a 'no change' outcome, with implied probabilities ranging from 78% to 85% [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-july-181), [predictionninja.com](https://predictionninja.com/market/will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-july-2026-meeting). Given the historical tendency for the Fed to hold rates steady between major policy shifts, 80% is a well-calibrated estimate.
Prediction markets consistently show a high probability (78-85%) of no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting. The base rate for no change at FOMC meetings is historically high, and current market consensus reflects this trend. The key factors include the structural preference for holding rates steady, recent economic data, and Fed communications.
Aggregating across multiple prediction markets and considering the Fed's historical behavior, the probability of no change is high. While Polymarket shows 78%, other platforms like Prediction Ninja show 85%, suggesting some variance. Taking a consensus view and adjusting for slight overweighting in niche platforms, a probability of 0.80 reflects a well-calibrated estimate based on current information and base rates of Fed inaction.
Prediction markets show high odds of no change, with Polymarket at 78%, PredictionNinja at 85%, and OddsShift at 84%. The FOMC left rates unchanged in June, and minutes indicate a divided committee expecting no cut before early 2027, supporting the base case of no change.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.