Multiple prediction markets (Polymarket, Octagon) consistently price the chance of Mojtaba Khamenei ceasing to be de facto leader by August 31 at 2% or lower, reflecting strong consensus for institutional continuity through 2026. While his prolonged public absence fuels speculation, credible reporting indicates he still controls the IRGC and state apparatus via proxies, and external intervention is deemed unlikely. The market's low volume and downward trend further support a very low probability of a change within this short timeframe.
Current prediction markets and expert models assign a very low probability (around 1-2%) to a leadership change in Iran by August 31, 2026. Despite Mojtaba Khamenei's public absence and health concerns, institutional continuity and IRGC backing strongly support his continued de facto leadership through this period. No credible reports or official announcements indicate an imminent removal or resignation before the deadline.
Mojtaba Khamenei was installed as Supreme Leader in March 2026 following a rapid, IRGC-backed transition after his father's assassination. Given the current date is August 20, 2026, there is very little time remaining for a major political upheaval or removal to occur before the August 31 deadline. Prediction markets and current reporting indicate high stability for the regime in the immediate term, with the probability of a leadership change within this narrow window being extremely low.
The probability of a leadership change in Iran by August 31, 2026, is estimated to be 11%. This is based on the current market odds and the consensus among analysts that Mojtaba Khamenei's authority is uncertain but likely to remain stable in the short term. The key factors include his lack of public appearances, the institutional preference for continuity, and the low probability of external intervention.
As of August 2026, Mojtaba Khamenei remains the de facto leader of Iran following his selection by the Assembly of Experts in March 2026 after the assassination of his father, Ali Khamenei [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-leadership-change-by/iran-leadership-change-by-june-30-689-922). The regime has prioritized stability, with power consolidated among clerical and IRGC elites, and no credible reports suggest imminent removal or resignation. Prediction markets assign only a ~4% chance to leadership change by August 31, 2026, reflecting low expectations of upheaval in the near term [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/events/iran-leadership-change-by).
Polymarket and Octagon data show low odds for Iran leadership change by August 31, with market probabilities at 2% and 2.0% respectively, indicating low likelihood.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
timeout after 30000ms
Prediction markets, which aggregate the views of informed traders, currently assign about a 16% probability to a NATO-Russia military clash by the end of 2026, with lower probabilities for earlier dates such as June 30, 2026. Given the ongoing geopolitical tensions but absence of direct military engagements qualifying under the market's strict criteria, a moderate but not high chance is reasonable. The market's large volume and historical accuracy support this estimate.
While geopolitical tensions remain high, both NATO and Russia have consistently demonstrated a strong desire to avoid direct military escalation that could trigger Article 5 or a broader conflict. Current prediction market data [polyautomate.org](https://polyautomate.org/prediction-odds/nato-x-russia-military-clash-by-december-31-2026-244) suggests a relatively low probability for such an event, and the strict definition of 'military encounter'—which excludes non-violent incidents like airspace violations or physical collisions—further reduces the likelihood of a 'Yes' resolution.
The prediction market on Polymarket currently assigns a 39% probability to a NATO-Russia military clash by August 31, 2026. This estimate is based on real-time crowd-sourced probabilities from traders, reflecting the latest collective view of the likelihood of such an event. The market's accuracy and the significant trading volume suggest that this probability is a well-informed estimate.
The Polymarket odds for a NATO-Russia military clash by August 31, 2026, show a 39% implied probability, rising to 54% by year-end, indicating increasing risk over time [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/nato-x-russia-military-clash-in-2025). Historical incidents like the 2023 Black Sea drone takedown do not qualify as 'military encounters' under the defined criteria, which require direct use of force. While tensions persist due to the Ukraine conflict and NATO deployments, most encounters remain below the threshold of direct military engagement. The base rate of escalation is low, but not negligible, given ongoing confrontations in the Black Sea and Baltic regions.
Polymarket odds for a NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026, show a 'Yes' price of 39.7¢, implying a 39.7% probability, adjusted for general market dynamics.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Current IMF Portwatch data shows Strait of Hormuz transit calls at roughly 5-13 vessels daily, far below the 60 threshold, due to ongoing Iran-US conflict and recent attacks on August 18. With only 11 days left until the August 31 deadline and no signs of a rapid resolution, the chance of a sustained 7-day moving average reaching 60 is extremely low. Polymarket odds for 'No' are near 100%, and the market for 'Yes' is priced at 0-1%, reflecting the consensus that normal traffic will not resume by this date.
The Strait of Hormuz has seen persistent low traffic levels (5-13 vessels daily) since the February 27 closure due to the 2026 Iran-US conflict, far below the normal baseline of 60-140 vessels. Recent attacks and ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to suppress traffic, with no strong indications of imminent resolution or normalization by August 31, 2026. Prediction markets and trader sentiment also assign a very low probability to traffic returning to normal by that date.
Current data indicates that transit calls in the Strait of Hormuz have remained significantly depressed (5-13 vessels daily) due to ongoing geopolitical conflict, far below the threshold of 60 required for a 'Yes' resolution. With the deadline of August 31, 2026, only days away and no signs of a de-escalation or restoration of normal shipping traffic, it is highly improbable that the 7-day moving average will reach the required level.
The current geopolitical tensions and recent attacks have kept transit calls far below the required 60. The market consensus is overwhelmingly against a return to normal traffic by August 31, with prices reflecting a near-zero probability.
Current data and geopolitical developments indicate that Strait of Hormuz traffic remains severely disrupted due to ongoing conflict and security risks. With recent attacks and no meaningful restoration of throughput, the likelihood of a 7-day average reaching 60 by August 31, 2026 is extremely low.
Current transit levels are 5-13 vessels daily, far below the 60 baseline, and market odds are very low, indicating a low chance of meeting the 7-day moving average requirement by August 31.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
The base rate for such a sudden policy reversal is very low given the administration's recent commitment to indefinite enforcement. Market prices (6% for Aug 22) confirm this, and no credible news indicates an imminent announcement. A small residual probability accounts for unforeseen events or a last-minute deal, but it remains very unlikely.
The US reinstated the naval blockade on Iran in July 2026 and has stated it can maintain the blockade indefinitely, with no official indication of plans to end it by August 22, 2026. Prediction markets currently assign a low probability (~21%) to the blockade ending by that date, reflecting the strong US commitment to maintaining pressure on Iran and the absence of any official announcement signaling an end. Given the short timeframe and current political stance, an official announcement ending the blockade by August 22 is unlikely.
The U.S. government has recently reaffirmed its commitment to the naval blockade, with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth explicitly stating on August 13, 2026, that the U.S. can maintain the blockade 'indefinitely' [reuters.com]. Given this official stance and the lack of any diplomatic signals suggesting a reversal, it is highly unlikely that an announcement to end or suspend the blockade will occur by the August 22, 2026 deadline.
The U.S. has recently signaled its intention to maintain the naval blockade on Iran indefinitely, with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stating that the U.S. Navy can sustain the blockade by rotating ships. This indicates a strong commitment to the blockade, making an announcement of its end by August 22, 2026, unlikely. Additionally, prediction markets like Polymarket and Frenzy Capital show low implied probabilities (6% and 21% respectively) for the blockade ending by August 22, 2026, reflecting the market's skepticism.
The U.S. has signaled strong commitment to maintaining the blockade indefinitely, with senior officials reaffirming this stance as recently as August 13, 2026 [reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-eyes-indefinite-iran-naval-blockade-oil-supply-shortfall-deepens-2026-08-13/). Market-implied probabilities remain very low (6–21%), reflecting minimal trader expectation of a qualifying announcement by August 22. Given the lack of official signals or diplomatic developments suggesting a reversal, the probability of a formal U.S. announcement ending the blockade before the deadline is very low.
The US has stated it can maintain the blockade indefinitely, and market probabilities for an August 22 announcement are low.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
As of August 20, 2026, the US Defense Secretary stated the blockade can be maintained indefinitely, and no official announcement of an end has been made. Diplomatic progress (e.g., Iran-Oman agreement) is ongoing but conditions remain unmet, and with only 11 days left, the probability of a clear official statement by August 31 is very low. Prediction markets price this at about 5%.
Current prediction markets and expert analysis assign a low probability (~5%) that the US will officially announce the end of the naval blockade on Iran by August 31, 2026. Despite some diplomatic progress between Iran and Oman, the US has stated it can maintain the blockade indefinitely and continues to apply economic pressure. The market prices and recent official statements indicate skepticism about a qualifying announcement within the short timeframe.
The probability of a qualifying announcement by August 31, 2026, is extremely low given the current official stance. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth explicitly stated on August 13, 2026, that the U.S. intends to maintain the blockade 'indefinitely' and is planning to increase economic pressure, directly contradicting the conditions for a 'Yes' resolution. With only days remaining until the deadline and no signs of diplomatic de-escalation from the U.S. government, the likelihood of a sudden policy reversal is negligible.
The US has recently reaffirmed its commitment to maintaining the naval blockade on Iran indefinitely, with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stating that the US Navy can sustain the blockade for an extended period. Additionally, prediction markets like Polymarket are pricing the likelihood of the US announcing an end to the blockade by August 31, 2026, at a very low 5%. This suggests a strong expectation that the blockade will continue without any official announcement of its termination.
Recent U.S. government statements indicate a commitment to maintaining the blockade indefinitely, and no official steps toward termination have been announced. While diplomatic talks continue, the lack of progress on key conditions and the administration's public stance suggest a low likelihood of a qualifying announcement before the deadline.
Polymarket prices Yes at 5%, and while there's some diplomatic progress, recent US statements suggest indefinite blockade, leading to a low probability.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
The initial agreement shows commitment, but the 60-day window has likely passed without a final deal. Market odds suggest a 20-30% chance by year-end, and base rates for such diplomatic accords are low. I estimate 30%, reflecting genuine uncertainty and the difficulty of meeting the specific criteria for a qualifying instrument.
The US and Iran signed an initial memorandum of understanding on June 14, 2026, starting a 60-day extendable negotiation period toward a final deal. However, the market probability has declined recently to about 38%, reflecting skepticism about reaching a fully signed or formally adopted final deal by December 31, 2026. The complexity of the nuclear program restrictions and the need for concrete, measurable obligations make a final agreement challenging within the timeframe.
While an initial memorandum of understanding was signed in June 2026, the subsequent negotiation period has faced significant skepticism, as reflected in the decline of market confidence. The complexity of reaching a 'final deal' that includes concrete, measurable nuclear benchmarks—as required by the market criteria—remains high, and the lack of reported progress since the initial agreement suggests that the parties are struggling to bridge fundamental differences.
The current market odds suggest a low probability of a final deal by December 31, 2026, with Polymarket pricing it at 10% [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-20260621201254412) and TomorrowOdds at 38% [tomorrowodds.com](https://tomorrowodds.com/q/us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-december-31-2026). The initial agreement on June 14, 2026, set a 60-day extendable period for negotiations, but the recent decline in market odds indicates growing skepticism. The complex nature of the negotiations and the need for specific, measurable obligations in the final deal further reduce the likelihood of a timely resolution.
While negotiations are underway following the June 14 MOU, no final, qualifying agreement has been signed or adopted as of mid-July 2026. The declining market probability and lack of public progress suggest challenges. However, the extendable 60-day window leaves room for a breakthrough, so a moderate probability of 35% reflects the current balance of evidence.
Current market implied probability is 38%, with a 10 percentage point decline over the past week, and three months remaining in the 60-day negotiation window.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
As of August 20, 2026, Bitcoin has already reached $65,000 this month (Polymarket shows 100% for that level), but the odds for $70,000 are only about 7.5% and for $67,500 about 37.5%, implying the current price is likely around $66-67k. To hit $75,000, Bitcoin would need a roughly 12% gain in the remaining 11 days, which is possible but unlikely given the low implied probability for even $70,000. Historical volatility supports occasional large moves, but with limited time and no strong catalysts, the probability is low, estimated around 4%.
Market data from Polymarket indicates a very low probability (6%) that Bitcoin will reach $75,000 on Binance during August 2026. Given the high volatility of Bitcoin but the significant price jump required from current levels, this low probability aligns with market expectations. The resolution depends strictly on Binance's BTC/USDT 1-minute candle highs, and no recent trends suggest a strong likelihood of hitting this target.
Current prediction markets and data aggregators consistently place the probability of Bitcoin reaching $75,000 in August 2026 at a very low level, typically between 2% and 6% [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-reach-75k-in-august-2026) [portalcripto.com.br](https://portalcripto.com.br/en/prediction-market/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-august-pm). Given that there is less than two weeks remaining in the month and the current price is significantly below the $75,000 threshold, a rapid, high-volatility surge of that magnitude is statistically unlikely without a major catalyst.
Prediction markets currently assign a very low probability (2-6%) to Bitcoin reaching $75,000 in August 2026. While there is a high probability (100%) of Bitcoin reaching $65,000, the likelihood of it reaching $75,000 is significantly lower, with only 2% implied probability in one market [portalcripto.com](https://portalcripto.com.br/en/prediction-market/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-august-pm). The base rate for such a high price target is low, and specific evidence from prediction markets supports this.
While Bitcoin saw a strong rally to nearly $69,500 in mid-August 2026 amid regulatory optimism and short squeezes, it has not yet reached $75,000. Prediction market odds have fluctuated widely, peaking above 60% but falling to as low as 6% by late August, suggesting declining confidence. Given the remaining days in August and historical volatility, there remains a non-trivial but low probability of a breakout, but the current trajectory and resistance near $70,000 make $75,000 unlikely.
No direct market data for Bitcoin reaching $75,000 in August, but considering historical volatility and potential growth, a moderate probability is assigned.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Based on recent resolved markets (e.g., Ethereum reaching $2,400 in June 2026 resolved 'No' at 98%, and $2,200 in late July 2026 resolved 'No' at 99.9%), the chance of ETH hitting $2,400 in the remaining 11 days of August is extremely low. Current price is far below $2,400, and no major catalysts are apparent. I estimate a probability of 0.005 (0.5%), consistent with the historical base rate of such events failing.
Recent prediction markets show very low probabilities for Ethereum reaching prices above $2,200 in late July and early August 2026, with one market at only 0.1% for $2,200 and another at 3% for $1,950 on August 18. Given these low probabilities and the lack of any bullish signals or market momentum suggesting a sharp rise to $2,400, the chance of Ethereum hitting $2,400 in August is very low.
Recent market data indicates that Ethereum has been trading significantly below the $2,400 threshold throughout the summer of 2026. Specifically, a recent market regarding Ethereum reaching $2,200 between July 27 and August 2 resolved to 'No' with a 0.1% probability, and other markets have shown strong bearish sentiment for similar price targets. Given the current price trajectory and the lack of significant upward momentum, it is highly unlikely that Ethereum will hit $2,400 in the remaining days of August.
Recent prediction markets show very low probabilities for Ethereum reaching $2,400 in nearby months, with markets for June and May 2026 resolving to 100% No. The closest market for July 27-August 2, 2026, resolved at 0.1% Yes. The current market for August 18, 2026, shows a 3% probability for Ethereum reaching $1,950, which is significantly lower than $2,400. These low probabilities suggest a very low likelihood of Ethereum reaching $2,400 in August 2026.
Current prediction markets show extremely low odds of Ethereum reaching $2,400 in the near term. A similar market for June 2026 shows a 0.1% chance [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-ethereum-reach-2200-july-27-august-2-2026), and another for $2,400 in June 2026 shows only 0.1¢ on Polymarket, implying a near-zero probability [explorer.struct.to](https://explorer.struct.to/markets/will-ethereum-reach-2400-in-june-2026). Ethereum's price remains well below $2,400 as of mid-2026, and no major catalysts suggest a sharp breakout in August. Market sentiment and volume indicate very low conviction in such a move.
Past markets for Ethereum reaching $2,400 in May and June 2026 resolved with 100% No. There is no current evidence of a significant upward trend to reach $2,400 in August.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Ethereum has consistently traded well below $2,700 throughout August 2026, with similar price-target markets for earlier periods resolving as 'No' at near-zero probabilities. A spike above $2,700 in the remaining days is highly unlikely given current price levels (~$1,900) and lack of strong catalysts.
Recent prediction markets show extremely low probabilities for Ethereum reaching $2,700 in the near future, with similar markets for May, June, and late July to early August all indicating near 0% chance. Given the consistent low odds and no significant bullish indicators, the probability for August remains very low.
Recent market data from August 2026 indicates that Ethereum has been trading significantly below the $2,700 threshold, with recent price targets and market sentiment focusing on levels closer to $2,000 [web3.bitget.com]. Given that the month is nearly over and historical market trends for this period show a lack of volatility sufficient to reach such a high price point, it is extremely unlikely that Ethereum will hit $2,700 before the end of August [explorer.struct.to, predictmarketcap.com].
The current market sentiment and historical data suggest that Ethereum reaching $2,700 in August is highly unlikely. Recent predictions and resolved markets indicate that even reaching $2,200 in late July to early August was considered a 0.1% probability event, and Ethereum did not reach that price. Additionally, the market for Ethereum reaching $2,700 in June resolved to 100% No, further indicating the low likelihood of such a price surge in the near future.
Ethereum has consistently failed to approach $2,700 in 2026, with current market probabilities and trading volumes indicating extremely low confidence in such a move. The highest live odds for ETH exceeding $2,050 are below 1%, suggesting a near-zero chance of reaching $2,700 by August 31.
Existing Polymarket markets for June and May reaching $2,700 had very low probabilities, and there's no strong indication of a significant price surge in August.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
unparseable forecast JSON
Market data from Polymarket and Worldstreet indicate a roughly 22% probability that WTI Crude Oil will hit $95 or higher during August 2026. This reflects current futures pricing, market sentiment, and recent trading volumes, suggesting a moderate chance but not a high likelihood. The price has been stable below $95 recently, and while volatility could push prices higher, the consensus is cautious.
Current market sentiment and trading data from prediction platforms like Polymarket and Worldstreet indicate a probability of approximately 22-23% for WTI Crude Oil reaching $95 in August 2026. Given that we are nearing the end of August, the window for such a price spike is closing, and there is no significant geopolitical or supply-side catalyst currently driving prices toward that threshold.
The current market probability on Polymarket is 22.0% [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-wti-reach-95-in-august-2026). Another market on Worldstreet shows a 23.0% probability [prediction.worldstreetgold.com](https://prediction.worldstreetgold.com/local/what-will-wti-crude-oil-wti-hit-in-august-2026). Given the consistency between these markets and the lack of significant contrary evidence, I will use the average of these probabilities as my estimate.
Based on current futures pricing and market sentiment, WTI reaching $95 in August 2026 is possible but unlikely without major unforeseen events. The consensus reflected in prediction markets like Polymarket and Worldstreet aligns with a probability of around 22%, which matches recent trading levels and macroeconomic conditions [worldstreetgold.com](https://prediction.worldstreetgold.com/local/what-will-wti-crude-oil-wti-hit-in-august-2026).
Current market probabilities from Polymarket and Worldstreet indicate around 22-23% chance, considering the resolution criteria and time frame.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Based on prediction market data from Polymarket as of Aug 20, 2026, there is a 28% implied probability of a 25 bps increase. However, considering the broader economic context where the Fed has been signaling potential easing, a rate hike seems unlikely, so I adjust downward to a 20% probability.
Prediction markets like Polymarket, which aggregate real-money bets from informed traders, currently price the probability of a 25 bps rate increase after the September 2026 Fed meeting at about 28%. This reflects a consensus that a rate hike is possible but not the most likely outcome, with the majority expecting no change or a decrease. Given the Fed's cautious stance and recent economic data, a modest chance of a rate increase is reasonable.
Prediction markets, including Polymarket and Kresmion, currently price the probability of a 25 bps interest rate increase at approximately 28%. This reflects a consensus that a rate hike is less likely than a 'no change' scenario, which is currently favored by the market at around 71%.
The current market consensus on Polymarket and Kresmion indicates a 28% probability of a 25 bps interest rate increase by the Fed after the September 2026 meeting. This reflects the collective judgment of traders and the latest economic data trends.
Prediction markets such as Polymarket, Kresmion, and PolyScope aggregate real-time trader sentiment and reflect current expectations. As of August 20, 2026, the consensus across these platforms indicates a 28% probability that the Fed will increase rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting [kresmion.com](https://kresmion.com/odds/will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-september-2026-meeting-649), with Polymarket data showing tight alignment [poly-scope.com](https://poly-scope.com/market/2252245). These markets have demonstrated strong historical accuracy due to financial incentives and information efficiency.
Prediction markets like Polymarket show a 28% probability of the Fed increasing rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Multiple Polymarket prediction markets as of August 20, 2026, consistently price a 'no change' outcome at 70-71% for the September 2026 FOMC meeting, with $9.1M in volume indicating strong liquidity and crowd calibration. The market for a 25 bps decrease is at 100% for the September 2025 meeting, but for September 2026 the 'no change' probability has risen from 47% a month ago to 71%, reflecting recent economic data (unemployment at 4.1%) and Fed official uncertainty about trade policy impacts, which together suggest the Fed is likely to hold rates steady.
Prediction markets like Polymarket currently price the probability of no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting at about 71%, reflecting a consensus among informed traders. This probability has increased over the past month, indicating growing confidence in a hold decision. Given the Fed's typical cautious approach and the lack of strong signals for a rate change this far in advance, the market's implied probability is a reasonable estimate.
Current prediction market data from [kresmion.com](https://kresmion.com/odds/will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-september-2026-meeting-615) and [polyrama.io](https://polyrama.io/markets/will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-september-2026-meeting-615) consistently prices the probability of 'no change' at approximately 70-71%. This reflects the collective market sentiment that the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain current interest rate levels during the September 2026 FOMC meeting, given the prevailing economic outlook and uncertainty regarding future policy shifts.
The prediction market Polymarket currently prices the probability of no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting at 71% [kresmion.com](https://kresmion.com/odds/will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-september-2026-meeting-615). This reflects the collective judgment of traders who are actively trading based on the latest economic data and Fed communications. The market's high accuracy score of 94% over the past month [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-september) suggests that this probability is well-calibrated.
Prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kresmion currently price the probability of no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting at around 71%, reflecting aggregated trader expectations. This is supported by recent trends showing increasing odds of a hold, with prices rising from 47% to 71% over the past month [kresmion.com](https://kresmion.com/odds/will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-september-2026-meeting-615). High trading volume ($9.1M) suggests strong market confidence in this outcome.
As of August 20, 2026, Polymarket prices the 'no change' outcome at 71% YES, with significant volume and recent stability around this level.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.