The IMF PortWatch data already shows a 7-day moving average of transit calls around 4.2, which is far below the 10 threshold required for a 'Yes' resolution. Given the sustained Houthi attacks and ongoing rerouting of major shipping lines, there is no plausible scenario where traffic recovers above 10 by August 31. The probability is very high, though not 1.0 due to residual uncertainty about data revisions or a sudden ceasefire restoring traffic.
Current market data and expert analysis indicate a low probability (around 17%) of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait being effectively closed by August 31, 2026. Despite geopolitical tensions and threats from Houthi forces, major carriers have only paused Red Sea routes temporarily, with shipping volumes still flowing, albeit reduced. Naval patrols and alternative routes have mitigated the risk of a full closure, and no significant escalation has yet caused transit calls to drop to 10 or below.
While Houthi attacks have significantly reduced commercial traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, causing many major shipping lines to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, the volume of transit calls has remained above the threshold of 10 per day. The current geopolitical situation, characterized by ongoing naval patrols and a 'new normal' of reduced but persistent traffic, suggests that a complete cessation of transit to the level of 10 or fewer ships per day is unlikely before August 31, 2026, barring a major, unforeseen escalation.
The current geopolitical situation and historical data suggest a low probability of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait being effectively closed by August 31, 2026. The prediction markets reflect this with low probabilities assigned to the 'Yes' outcome, indicating that the strait is unlikely to be closed based on current trends and naval patrols.
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait has seen reduced traffic due to Houthi-related risks and rerouting, but a complete closure (≤10 transits) has not occurred. Current prediction market odds and geopolitical assessments suggest low but non-trivial risk of closure. Given ongoing instability but operational resilience, the probability aligns with trader consensus around 16%.
Market consensus, as indicated by Polymarket and Frenzy Capital, suggests a low probability. Current data and geopolitical factors do not strongly indicate the 7-day moving average of transit calls will drop to ≤10 by August 31.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
The ceasefire has held since the June Islamabad Memorandum, and no qualifying military action has occurred recently. With only 2 days remaining until July 25, the short time horizon reduces the chance of a sudden strike, though ongoing tensions and mutual accusations keep risk non-zero. Polymarket odds of 83% support a high probability, but I adjust slightly upward given the imminent deadline.
Recent reports indicate ongoing tensions and military exchanges between Israel and Iran, including missile strikes and retaliations, which increase the risk of ceasefire breakdown. However, no confirmed qualifying military action directly impacting the other's territory has been reported through July 22, and Israel remains on high alert but has not re-engaged Iranian territory directly. The lack of scheduled diplomatic milestones and stalled negotiations reduce the likelihood of a sustained ceasefire, but the current absence of direct strikes supports a relatively high probability that the ceasefire continues through July 25.
The current geopolitical climate between Israel and Iran is highly volatile following the collapse of the Islamabad Memorandum. While recent escalations have involved U.S. forces and regional proxies, direct strikes on terrestrial territory between Israel and Iran have been avoided in the immediate term. Given that only two days remain until the July 25 deadline, the probability of a major, qualifying direct strike occurring within this narrow window is relatively low, though the risk remains elevated due to the ongoing high-alert status.
Recent reports indicate that the ceasefire between Israel and Iran has been holding, with no major military actions reported as of the latest updates. The Orrery market shows an 83% probability, suggesting strong market confidence in the ceasefire continuing. However, the situation remains volatile, with ongoing tensions and potential for escalation.
Recent escalations in the Strait of Hormuz and the breakdown of the June Islamabad Memorandum truce, as declared by President Trump on July 8, indicate active hostilities between Iran and U.S. forces, with Israel maintaining high alert and conducting operations against Hezbollah but not directly engaging Iran in the latest exchanges [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt-20260716224448963). Despite the absence of direct Israel-Iran strikes recently, the broader regional conflict and stalled negotiations increase the risk of spillover. However, no qualifying military action (e.g., direct missile or air strikes between Israel and Iran) has been credibly reported as of July 23, 2026, which slightly extends the chance of the ceasefire holding through July 25.
Recent escalations including strikes by Iran and U.S., Israel's high alert, and stalled negotiations suggest reduced ceasefire likelihood, but no confirmed qualifying military actions yet.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
The formal ceasefire agreement expired on July 8, but no direct military action between Israel and Iran has occurred since. Both sides have been engaged in other operations (e.g., U.S.-Iran strikes, Israel-Hezbollah), and direct strikes have been avoided despite high tensions. With only 8 days remaining, the risk of a qualifying action is moderate but not dominant, so the probability of the ceasefire holding is around 70%.
Recent escalations between Israel and Iran, including missile strikes and military actions, have increased tensions, but a formal ceasefire remains in place as of late July 2026. Both sides have shown readiness for action, but no qualifying military action directly impacting the other's territory has been confirmed through credible sources. The stalled negotiations and mutual accusations suggest fragility, but the ceasefire has held so far through July 23, making a continuation through July 31 moderately likely.
The regional security environment remains highly volatile following the collapse of the June Islamabad Memorandum. While Israel has not directly engaged Iranian territory in the most recent exchanges, the ongoing conflict involving regional proxies and the lack of diplomatic progress significantly increase the risk of a direct, qualifying military action before the end of July. Given the current high-alert status and the history of rapid escalation in this theater, the likelihood of a ceasefire holding for the remaining days is relatively low.
Recent escalations in the Strait of Hormuz and mutual strikes between Israel and Iran indicate a fragile ceasefire. The lack of diplomatic progress and ongoing military exchanges suggest a high likelihood of a significant military action before July 31.
The ceasefire remains fragile due to recent military exchanges and lack of diplomatic progress, but Israel has not directly engaged Iran in the latest confrontations. Credible reports indicate high alert but restraint, and no qualifying military action has yet occurred. Base rate of conflict resumption is tempered by third-party stabilization efforts and mutual deterrence, leading to a probability slightly below market price for calibration.
Recent escalations including strikes on commercial vessels and U.S. responses have strained the ceasefire, but Israel hasn't directly re-engaged Iran. Stalled negotiations and market pricing at 72% are key factors.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Polymarket odds are around 13-14% for Yes, reflecting a low expectation that the 7-day moving average of transit calls will reach 60 by August 31. Current traffic is likely depressed due to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the region (e.g., Iran-Israel conflict, Houthi attacks), and a return to normal within about five weeks faces significant headwinds. While a diplomatic breakthrough or rapid de-escalation could boost traffic, the base rate of such recoveries in a short timeframe is low, so I estimate a 15% chance, slightly above the market to account for potential underestimation of a sudden resolution.
Current market data from multiple prediction platforms consistently price the probability of Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by August 31, 2026, at around 12-14%. This low probability reflects ongoing geopolitical tensions, security concerns, and disruptions affecting shipping traffic in the region, making a full return to normal traffic levels unlikely by the specified date.
The market for this event is currently pricing a 'Yes' outcome at approximately 12-14% [polymarket.copilot.markets](https://polymarket.copilot.markets/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-august-31-20260702154212320). Given the short timeframe remaining until August 31, 2026, and the persistent geopolitical tensions affecting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, it is unlikely that transit volumes will recover to the required 7-day moving average threshold of 60 calls as defined by IMF Portwatch [pdata.world](https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/660108).
The current market consensus on Polymarket suggests a 13% chance of Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by August 31, 2026. This estimate is based on the 7-day moving average of transit calls published by IMF Portwatch. The low probability reflects ongoing geopolitical tensions and potential disruptions in the region.
The current prediction market consensus, combined with ongoing regional instability and historically low transit numbers, suggests low confidence that traffic will return to the defined 'normal' level by the deadline. I align closely with the market-implied probability as a well-calibrated estimate.
Market odds from multiple platforms indicate a low likelihood. The resolution depends on IMF Portwatch's 7-day moving average of transit calls being above 60, and current market pricing reflects a low probability.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
The Polymarket prediction market currently prices YES at about 1-1.3%, reflecting very low confidence that the 7-day moving average of transit calls will reach 60 by July 31. Given the market's strong track record and the fact that the question resolves in just over a week, the crowd's assessment is a highly informative signal. However, I assign a slightly higher probability (2%) to account for the possibility of a sudden geopolitical de-escalation or data revision that could push the average above the threshold, though such an outcome remains very unlikely based on current traffic levels.
Current prediction markets, which aggregate diverse information and trader insights, assign about a 1% probability that Strait of Hormuz traffic will return to normal levels by July 31, 2026. Given ongoing geopolitical tensions and disruptions in the region, a rapid return to normal traffic seems unlikely in the near term. The market's strong consensus and volume support a very low chance of normalization by the deadline.
The market for this event is currently trading at approximately 1% on prediction platforms like Polymarket [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31). Given the proximity to the July 31, 2026, deadline and the lack of significant indicators suggesting a rapid return to the required transit volume threshold of 60, the probability remains extremely low.
The current probability for "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?" is 1.1% for "Yes" according to Polymarket. This low probability reflects the collective market sentiment based on real-time trading data and continuous updates. The key factors include the historical traffic data, current geopolitical tensions, and the reliability of IMF Portwatch data.
The current prediction market odds on Polymarket and PolyInsider indicate a 'Yes' probability of approximately 1.2% to 1.3%, based on real-money trading activity [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31) [polyinsider.io](https://polyinsider.io/en/markets/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31). These markets aggregate information from diverse participants and have historically been well-calibrated. The low probability reflects persistent geopolitical tensions and ongoing disruptions in the region, which continue to suppress shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Given the strong track record of prediction markets in forecasting such events, this consensus estimate is a reliable indicator of the true likelihood.
Current market odds from Polymarket and PolyInsider show a very low probability of 1.2% for the 'Yes' outcome.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
timeout after 30000ms
While the US and Iran have a memorandum of understanding and a 60-day extendable negotiation period starting mid-June 2026, recent reports indicate significant tensions and no finalized agreement yet. President Trump is considering a massive military strike on Iran, which suggests deteriorating relations and complicates diplomatic progress. Although there is a released 14-point memorandum, it appears preliminary and not a final deal with concrete, measurable nuclear restrictions. Given these factors, the probability of a final signed or formally adopted nuclear deal by August 18, 2026, is low but not negligible.
The current geopolitical climate is characterized by extreme hostility rather than diplomatic progress. President Trump has recently indicated he is considering 'massive' military action against Iran, and Iranian leadership has shown no willingness to accept current proposals, citing a lack of 'pain' in negotiations [axios.com]. Furthermore, regional tensions are escalating due to incidents at the Temple Mount [timesofisrael.com, aljazeera.com] and ongoing maritime conflicts, making a formal, binding nuclear agreement by August 18, 2026, highly improbable.
The current agreement between the U.S. and Iran is a preliminary step with significant hurdles to overcome within the 60-day period. Key issues such as Iran's nuclear program, sanctions relief, and regional security concerns remain contentious. The agreement's ambiguity and the need for congressional approval in the U.S. add layers of complexity. Additionally, the high stakes and historical tensions between the two nations suggest that reaching a final deal by August 18, 2026, is uncertain.
While a diplomatic framework was established in mid-June, recent statements by President Trump suggest a pivot toward military action rather than a finalized nuclear deal. The lack of public progress toward a signed agreement, combined with escalating rhetoric, makes a final deal by August 18, 2026, unlikely.
The June 14, 2026, agreement provides a 60-day negotiation period, but there is no recent indication of a final deal being reached by August 18, 2026.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
timeout after 30000ms
Current prediction markets like Polymarket and Ominari show relatively low confidence, around 24-40%, that Bitcoin will reach $67,500 in July 2026. Given Bitcoin's volatility and the fact that $67,500 is a high target compared to recent price levels, the probability is modest but not negligible. Market sentiment and trading volumes suggest a cautious outlook for this price level within the month.
Current market data from [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-reach-67pt5k-in-july-2026) indicates a 24.5% probability for Bitcoin reaching $67,500 in July 2026. Given that the month is nearly over and the price has not yet hit this threshold, the likelihood of a sudden surge to this level in the remaining days is statistically low based on current volatility and market sentiment.
The prediction markets Polymarket and Ominari show varying probabilities for Bitcoin reaching $67,500 in July 2026, with Polymarket at 59% and Ominari at 14%. Given the higher probability from Polymarket and the fact that Bitcoin has shown significant volatility and upward trends in the past, a mid-range estimate of 55% seems reasonable. Key factors include historical price trends, market sentiment, and macroeconomic conditions.
Bitcoin is currently near $67,000, making $67,500 a plausible short-term target. Given historical intramonth volatility and the fact that the threshold is only ~0.7% above current levels, a brief spike above $67,500 on Binance is possible but not highly likely. Market-implied probabilities are low but not negligible, supporting a cautious estimate around 28%.
Based on the available market data from Polymarket and OMINARI, the probabilities for Bitcoin reaching $67,500 in July are relatively low. The resolution depends on Binance 1-minute BTC/USDT candles, and current market indicators suggest a lower likelihood.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
The current price of Bitcoin is near $62,600, needing a ~12% increase to $70,000 in the remaining 8 days of July. Polymarket odds are around 22.5%, which serves as a useful market-implied baseline. Given the short time frame and lack of a strong bullish catalyst, the probability is low but not negligible, as sudden volatility could push prices higher. I estimate a 22% chance, consistent with the market consensus.
Current prediction markets and data sources indicate about a 22-23% chance that Bitcoin will reach $70,000 in July 2026. Bitcoin is trading near $62,600 mid-July and needs a roughly 12% rally to hit $70,000, which is plausible but not highly likely given recent consolidation and resistance levels. Market sentiment and historical volatility support a moderate probability rather than a high one.
As of late July 2026, Bitcoin is trading significantly below the $70,000 threshold, and there is limited time remaining in the month for a substantial rally. Market sentiment reflected in prediction platforms like Polymarket and Ominari consistently prices this outcome between 17% and 23%, suggesting that while a move is possible, it is considered unlikely given current price action and resistance levels.
The market odds from Polymarket and Manifold suggest a probability around 22-23%, which aligns with the current trading price near $62,600 and the need for a 12% rally to reach $70,000. The lower odds for a higher target ($72,500) at 10% also support this estimate.
Base rate for large BTC price moves in a single month is low, but current momentum and macro conditions provide some tailwind. Adjusting slightly above prediction market consensus to account for potential volatility spikes, though $70,000 remains a significant hurdle from $62,600.
Bitcoin is currently trading near $62,600 and needs to rally ~12% to reach $70k in July. Market indicators from Polymarket, OMINARI, and Manifold show varying probabilities around 17-23%.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
As of late July 2026, Bitcoin is trading well below $75,000, and prediction markets on Polymarket assign only a 2-4% probability to this event. With roughly 9 days remaining in the month, a surge of 15-20% is needed, which is highly improbable without a major catalyst. The base rate for such large short-term moves is very low, and the market-implied probability of ~3% seems reasonable, so I estimate a 3% chance.
Current market odds from multiple prediction platforms range between 3% and 7%, indicating low market confidence that Bitcoin will reach $75,000 in July 2026. Given Bitcoin's historical volatility and the high price target relative to recent trends, a low probability is reasonable. No significant bullish catalysts or trends suggest a strong likelihood of hitting this price within the specified timeframe.
With only about one week remaining in July 2026, Bitcoin would need a significant and rapid price appreciation to reach the $75,000 threshold. Current prediction market data from [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-reach-75k-in-july-2026) and [orrery.me](https://orrery.me/markets/will-bitcoin-reach-75k-in-july-2026) consistently place the probability of this event at approximately 2-4%, reflecting the low market expectation for such a move in the remaining time frame.
Prediction markets currently price the probability of Bitcoin reaching $75,000 in July 2026 at around 2-5%. This low probability is likely due to the significant price target and the short timeframe. The base rate for such a substantial price increase in a single month is historically low, and the current market sentiment reflected in these odds suggests a similar outlook.
As of July 2026, prediction markets such as Polymarket and Orrery show a consensus probability of approximately 4.3% that Bitcoin will reach $75,000 in July, based on Binance BTC/USDT one-minute candle highs. This reflects low trader confidence despite Bitcoin's historical volatility, with current market pricing suggesting limited expectation of a sharp rally to that level within the month.
Market odds from Polymarket, Orrery, and Kresmion are around 3-7%, indicating a low probability.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Prediction markets as of July 23, 2026, imply an 85-89% probability that NVIDIA remains the largest company by market cap on July 31, reflecting its entrenched lead in AI accelerators and strong enterprise demand. With only a week until resolution, no major negative catalysts have emerged, and the market has been trending upward, supporting a high but not certain probability.
NVIDIA has been the largest company by market cap since June 2025 and currently holds a strong position in prediction markets with a 54% probability. However, recent reports show Apple briefly unseated NVIDIA as the largest company in mid-July 2026, reflecting a competitive and volatile market cap race. Given the close competition and recent shifts, a probability slightly above 50% for NVIDIA retaining the top spot by July 31 is reasonable.
NVIDIA currently maintains a significant lead in market capitalization, driven by its dominant position in the AI accelerator market and strong enterprise demand for its GPUs. Prediction markets [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/largest-company-end-of-july-20260624192302727) and [orrery.me](https://orrery.me/markets/will-nvidia-be-the-largest-company-in-the-world-by-market-cap-on-july-31-20260624192329841) consistently show high confidence in this trend, with implied probabilities around 85-89%. While market volatility and regulatory shifts remain risks, the current momentum and lack of immediate challengers suggest a high likelihood of maintaining this position through the end of July.
NVIDIA's dominant position in AI accelerators and surging enterprise demand for GPUs drive its outsized revenue growth and valuation multiples. Market-implied probabilities and trading odds consistently favor NVIDIA, with Polymarket showing 85-89% odds. Competitors like Microsoft, Alphabet, and Broadcom trail significantly, while other large companies face specific challenges.
NVIDIA has a dominant position in AI accelerators, driving strong revenue growth and high valuation multiples. Market-implied probabilities from prediction platforms like Polymarket reflect an 85–89% chance of NVIDIA being the largest company by market cap by end-July 2026 [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/largest-company-end-of-july-20260624192302727), supported by continued demand for its Blackwell architecture and favorable AI trends.
Apple briefly unseated NVIDIA in July 2026, and NVIDIA faces vulnerabilities like sector-specific risks and macroeconomic shifts, though it still has a valuation buffer. The probability is adjusted based on recent market moves and potential risks.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
WTI crude oil has only briefly traded above $95 once in the last five years (2022), giving a low historical base rate (~20% for any given year, but much lower for a single month). Current market odds on Polymarket and PredictionHub are around 7%, reflecting that while geopolitical risks and supply constraints could cause spikes, the $95 level is a significant 36-point jump from recent trading levels near $59. EIA projections show gradual replenishment and non-OPEC supply growth adding downward pressure, making a sustained spike to $95 in July 2026 unlikely.
WTI crude oil prices have historically traded above $95 only during significant geopolitical or supply shocks, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022. Current market conditions as of mid-2026 show prices near $70 with projections of surplus and downward pressure from non-OPEC supply growth and OPEC+ production restarts. Elevated volatility and geopolitical risks could cause spikes, but a sustained or sharp spike to $95 in July 2026 is less likely given current fundamentals and base rates.
WTI crude oil is currently trading near $70, significantly below the $95 threshold. Reaching $95 would require a massive, sudden supply shock or extreme geopolitical escalation, which is not currently supported by EIA projections or market consensus that anticipates a return to surplus conditions. Given the current price trajectory and the historical rarity of such a spike, the probability of hitting $95 in July 2026 is very low.
Historical data shows WTI crude oil has traded above $95 only once in the last five years, giving a base rate of around 20% [predictionhub.app](https://www.predictionhub.app/markets/pm%3A2730117). Current market predictions suggest a 7-70% chance, with a median around 36% [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-july-2026). EIA projections indicate a peak in Q3 2026, but with downward pressure from non-OPEC supply growth and OPEC+ adjustments [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-july-2026).
The historical base rate of WTI exceeding $95 is low (~20%) [predictionhub.app](https://www.predictionhub.app/markets/pm%3A2730117). Current fundamentals and trader positioning suggest a range near $80, with downward pressure from supply growth [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-july-2026). A jump to $95 would require a significant geopolitical shock, which is possible but not probable; thus, a modest increase above the base rate is justified.
Historical data shows WTI has traded above $95 only once in five years. Market sentiment suggests around 73% chance, but current prices are near $70 with downward pressures from non-OPEC supply growth and OPEC+ unwind.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
The overwhelming market consensus across multiple prediction platforms places the probability of no change around 85%. This is consistent with the Fed's recent caution and the absence of major economic shocks or policy shifts in the days leading up to the meeting. While a surprise is always possible, the data and guidance strongly support a hold. I assign 0.85 to reflect that high confidence while acknowledging the residual uncertainty.
Current prediction markets, including Polymarket and Polyguana, show a strong consensus with probabilities around 76% to 94% favoring no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting. The Federal Reserve has been cautious with rate changes recently, and the market's high liquidity and volume support the reliability of this consensus. Given the consistency and volume of market data, an 85% probability reflects a well-calibrated estimate for no change.
Current market sentiment and prediction platforms like [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-july-181) and [polyrama.io](https://polyrama.io/markets/will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-july-2026-meeting) consistently price the probability of no change in the federal funds rate at approximately 85%. Given the proximity to the meeting date and the lack of significant economic indicators suggesting an emergency or unexpected shift, the market consensus remains heavily weighted toward maintaining the status quo.
Prediction markets like Polymarket and Polyguana show strong consensus, with probabilities ranging from 76% to 94% for no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting. The most recent and liquid market on Polymarket shows an 85% probability, which aligns with the general market sentiment.
The consensus across multiple prediction markets is that there is an 85% chance of no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting, based on real-time trading activity. These markets aggregate information from diverse participants and have historically been well-calibrated for central bank decisions. Given the high volume and consistency of pricing, this represents the best current estimate.
Prediction markets show high probabilities of no change, with Polymarket, Polyguana, and PredictionNinja indicating 76-85% chances.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.