Iran has conducted two general airspace closures in 2026 (January and February), but the remaining window to July 31 is only 14 days. No recent credible reports indicate an imminent closure, and the Polymarket probability dropped 7pp in the last 24 hours to 23%, suggesting waning expectations. Base-rate analysis of such closures over a two-week period is low (~5-10%), and while tensions could escalate, the lack of a clear trigger makes a 23% probability seem slightly high. I adjust downward to 18%.
Recent market data from Polymarket and Orrery indicate a 23% implied probability of a full Iranian airspace closure by July 31, 2026. Historical closures have occurred but are relatively rare and typically linked to specific political or military events. Current information does not suggest an imminent closure, but the possibility remains given regional tensions and past precedent.
The probability of a full Iranian airspace closure by July 31, 2026, is estimated at 23%, consistent with current market sentiment [orrery.me]. While Iran has historically closed its airspace during periods of heightened regional tension, such events are typically reactive to specific military escalations. Without an immediate, major catalyst in the final two weeks of July, the base rate for such a significant disruption remains relatively low.
The base rate for airspace closures in Iran is low, with only a few instances in recent years. The most recent closure was in February 2026, and there have been no indications of an imminent closure by July 31. The Polymarket probability is 23%, which aligns with the low likelihood of such an event occurring in the near future.
Based on absence of official announcements or credible reports of a general airspace closure, and considering recent geopolitical stability, the likelihood of a full closure before July 31 is low. However, regional tensions could escalate, so a small probability remains. The 23% market price is a useful anchor, but adjusted slightly upward due to historical precedent of sudden closures.
Current Polymarket implied probability is 23%, with no recent major events indicating a closure, and time left is limited.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
The required 7-day moving average of 60 is far above current single-day counts (6-34), and the situation is deteriorating with active hostilities, a declared closure, and very limited time. A sudden ceasefire would need to produce an immediate and sustained surge in traffic, which is highly improbable. The prediction market (1%) and detailed analysis confirm this near-zero chance. I assign a 1% probability, reflecting a tiny possibility of a data revision or a miraculous diplomatic deal.
Current data shows extremely low traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with only six vessels transiting on July 12, far below the 60-vessel 7-day average threshold. Iran has declared the strait closed, and ongoing US-Iran military strikes continue to deter shipping. Although diplomatic talks are scheduled, the short time frame and severity of the conflict make a rapid return to normal traffic highly unlikely. Prediction markets and expert analyses align on a near-certain No outcome, with a very small chance of a sudden diplomatic breakthrough.
Current market data and recent reports indicate that the probability of Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to the specified threshold of 60 transit calls by July 31, 2026, is extremely low. Despite some speculative interest, the consensus among traders and the lack of significant de-escalation in regional tensions suggest that the status quo of suppressed traffic will persist through the end of the month.
The current crowd-sourced probability on Polymarket is 1% for "Yes" [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31). However, another source indicates a slightly higher probability of 1.1% [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31). Given the persistent security risks, de-mining requirements, and elevated insurance premiums, the base rate for a return to normal traffic is low. The average of these probabilities is taken as the final estimate.
Current data and market sentiment indicate extremely low likelihood of traffic returning to normal by July 31. The Polymarket crowd-sourced probability of 1% aligns with observed conditions, including ongoing security concerns and minimal transit activity since June 10 [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31).
The current Polymarket crowd-sourced probability is 1%, and key factors include persistent security risks, de-mining requirements, and elevated insurance premiums constraining transits.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
The most recent qualifying US military action against Iran occurred on July 14, 2026. Since the 14-day period must start on the day after the most recent qualifying action (July 15) or later, the earliest possible completion is July 28. The market end date is July 24, so no 14-day continuous period without a qualifying action can be completed by that deadline. Therefore, a Yes resolution is impossible.
Given the recent U.S. air strike on July 14, 2026, the 14-day ceasefire period required to resolve 'Yes' cannot be completed before July 24, as the earliest possible completion date is July 28. Additionally, ongoing tensions and retaliatory risks make a ceasefire by July 24 highly unlikely.
A qualifying military action occurred on July 14, 2026, which reset the 14-day clock [polymarketsignal.com](https://polymarketsignal.com/us-x-iran-effective-ceasfire-by-2-week-pause/). For a 14-day period to be completed by July 24, 2026, the pause would have needed to begin no later than July 10, 2026. Since the clock reset on July 15, it is mathematically impossible to complete a 14-day period before the July 24 deadline.
Given the U.S. strike on July 14, 2026, the 14-day ceasefire clock would have reset, beginning on July 15, 2026. For a 14-day period to complete, it would need to run uninterrupted until July 28, 2026. This means that by July 24, 2026, only 9 days would have passed since the last qualifying military action, making it highly improbable that a 14-day ceasefire period would be completed by that date. The market prices and expert analyses also suggest low probabilities for such a short-term ceasefire.
The most recent qualifying U.S. military action occurred on July 14, 2026, which reset the 14-day ceasefire period to start on July 15. A full 14-day pause would not conclude until July 28, after the July 24 deadline. Therefore, even under complete military inactivity, the timing makes a 'Yes' resolution impossible. The probability is near-zero, though not exactly zero due to remote uncertainty in event reporting or classification.
A US strike on July 14 reset the 14-day clock to start July 15. The period would need to end by July 24, but it requires 14 days, ending July 28, so insufficient time.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
The US is currently bombarding Iran in a sixth-straight night of attacks, which represents a massive escalation and makes a negotiated final nuclear deal extremely unlikely within the remaining 32 days. The June 14 MoU's 60-day negotiation window is effectively broken by the military conflict. Without any evidence of resumed talks or de-escalation, the probability is near zero. [aljazeera.com](https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/7/17/us-bombards-iran-in-sixth-straight-night-of-attacks)
Despite the June 14, 2026 announcement of a written diplomatic agreement and a 60-day negotiation period toward a final deal, recent developments show ongoing regional conflicts and tensions, such as Israeli attacks in Gaza and US military actions in the Middle East, which complicate diplomatic progress. There is no current credible reporting or official communication indicating that a final, qualifying nuclear deal between the US and Iran has been signed or formally adopted. Given the complexity of negotiations and the short timeframe, the probability of a final deal by August 18 is low but not negligible.
While a memorandum of understanding was established in June 2026, the current geopolitical climate is highly volatile. Recent reports indicate that the United States has been engaged in a sustained military campaign against Iran for several consecutive nights [aljazeera.com], which is fundamentally incompatible with the diplomatic trust and cooperation required to finalize a formal nuclear agreement. Given the ongoing kinetic conflict, the likelihood of both parties signing a binding, measurable nuclear deal within the next month is extremely low.
The recent escalation in tensions between the US and Iran, as indicated by the ongoing US airstrikes on Iran [aljazeera.com](https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/7/17/us-bombards-iran-in-sixth-straight-night-of-attacks), suggests a significant obstacle to reaching a final nuclear deal by August 18, 2026. However, the release of the official agreement text [cnn.com](https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/17/middleeast/us-iran-war-mou-text-intl) indicates some progress in negotiations. The probability is adjusted based on the current hostile environment and the remaining time to finalize the deal.
As of July 17, 2026, there is no indication of progress toward a final US-Iran nuclear deal, and hostilities have escalated, with the US conducting six consecutive nights of attacks on Iran [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/7/17/us-bombards-iran-in-sixth-straight-night-of-attacks). Such military actions strongly undermine diplomatic negotiations. Additionally, while a 14-point agreement was reportedly released in June [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/17/middleeast/us-iran-war-mou-text-intl), the current trajectory suggests a breakdown in trust and de-escalation efforts. The ongoing conflict makes it highly unlikely that a final, mutually signed deal meeting the required specificity and obligations will be achieved by August 18, 2026.
There is a 60-day negotiation period from the June 14, 2026, agreement, ending around August 13, 2026, before the August 18 deadline. No obstacles are mentioned in the available information.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
The midpoint of tracking ($118M) exceeds the $115M threshold, and Polymarket odds (71%) suggest market confidence. However, as a forecaster I must adjust for typical overconfidence in presales-driven projections and the inherent volatility of opening weekend estimates. A 65% probability balances the strong presales and Nolan's draw against the risk of underperformance from an R-rated epic.
Current market data from Polymarket shows a 71% implied probability that 'The Odyssey' will gross more than $115 million on its opening weekend. Early tracking indicates strong presales, especially for IMAX and premium formats, surpassing previous Nolan hits like 'Oppenheimer' and 'Dune: Part Two'. Despite some uncertainty due to the R-rating and the film's length, the star-studded cast, Nolan's draw, and a $250M budget support a strong opening above $115 million.
While early industry projections from sources like Box Office Pro suggested a range of $90M-$110M, recent market sentiment on [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/the-odyssey-opening-weekend-box-office-20260623143428166) has shifted significantly toward the >$115M outcome, currently pricing it at 71%. The strong momentum in IMAX and premium large-format (PLF) presales, which are outpacing previous Nolan hits, provides a solid basis for an upside surprise, though the inherent volatility of R-rated epics keeps the probability slightly below the market's current implied odds.
The Polymarket prediction market currently shows a 71% probability for 'The Odyssey' to gross more than $115M in its opening weekend. This is supported by early tracking data showing a range of $97M–$132M with a midpoint near $118M, and exceptional presales momentum, particularly in IMAX and premium large-format ticket sales. The film's star-driven cast and Christopher Nolan's proven theatrical draw also contribute to the upside potential.
Current market pricing and early tracking suggest a 71% chance the film exceeds $115M domestically, with a projected midpoint of $118M. Strong presales, especially in high-margin formats, and Nolan's draw support this, though some uncertainty remains due to the film's length, rating, and source material.
Based on Polymarket data, the implied probability for 'The Odyssey' opening weekend box office being greater than 115m is 71%. Early tracking shows a midpoint near $118M with strong presales momentum.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Polymarket markets for Bitcoin dipping to $57,500 in July 2026 currently show a probability of 21.5% (as of July 17, 2026), with related markets for $55,000 at 12.5% and $50,000 at 2.5%, forming a consistent probability curve. The market has significant liquidity ($56.7K) and volume ($811.3K total), suggesting informed participants. Given that July is already more than halfway through and the price has not yet touched $57,500, the remaining time reduces the likelihood, but the current market-implied probability of ~21% is a reasonable estimate.
Market data from Polymarket and PredictMarketCap indicates a roughly 21.5% chance that Bitcoin will dip to $57,500 or lower on Binance during July 2026. Given Bitcoin's historical volatility and current market trends, this probability seems reasonable and aligns with market expectations for a significant dip at that level.
The probability is based on current market sentiment and historical volatility data for Bitcoin on the Binance exchange. Market participants on prediction platforms like Polymarket currently estimate the likelihood of Bitcoin touching $57,500 at approximately 21.5%, reflecting the inherent volatility of the asset and the remaining time in the month of July 2026.
The market odds from Polymarket suggest a 21.5% chance of Bitcoin dipping to $57,500 in July. However, considering the broader market sentiment and the fact that a lower dip to $55,000 is priced at 12.5%, it is reasonable to adjust the probability slightly higher to account for the possibility of a dip to $57,500 without reaching $55,000.
The probability is based on the current market-implied odds from Polymarket, where the 'Yes' contract for Bitcoin dipping to $57,500 or lower in July 2026 is trading at 21.5% [polymarket.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-dip-to-57pt5k-in-july-2026). This reflects aggregated trader expectations using real-time price data from Binance's BTC/USDT 1-minute candles, which is the official resolution source.
Based on available prediction market data, the probability is derived from the indicated odds for Bitcoin dipping to $57,500 in July.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Bitcoin has already surpassed $65k this month, showing upward momentum. However, $67,500 is a significant resistance level and only 14 days remain. Market odds are around 25-40%, suggesting a moderate probability. Considering typical volatility and remaining time, I estimate a 30% chance.
Current prediction markets, which aggregate diverse information and trader sentiment, assign about a 24.5% chance that Bitcoin will reach $67,500 in July 2026. Given Bitcoin's historical volatility and recent price trends, this level is challenging but not impossible to reach within the month. The probability reflects moderate optimism tempered by the high price threshold and market conditions.
Market sentiment on prediction platforms like Polymarket and Ominari currently prices the probability of Bitcoin hitting $67,500 in July 2026 between 24.5% and 40%. Given that Bitcoin has already surpassed $65,000, the threshold of $67,500 is within a reasonable range of volatility for the remainder of the month, though it requires a sustained upward move or a significant spike.
Bitcoin's price is highly volatile, and while it has shown significant growth in the past, reaching $67,500 in July 2026 is uncertain. The current market odds on Polymarket suggest a 24.5% chance, but historical data and expert predictions indicate a higher probability due to Bitcoin's long-term upward trend and potential market catalysts. However, external factors such as regulatory changes or economic downturns could impact this outcome.
Bitcoin has already exceeded $65,000 in July 2026, and markets assign a 95.9% chance to hitting $62,500, showing strong upward momentum. However, the probability drops sharply to 24.5% for $67,500 [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-reach-67pt5k-in-july-2026), suggesting diminishing confidence at higher price levels. Given this implied market pricing and the incremental difficulty of a 4% move in a volatile asset, the true probability is estimated at 0.25.
Polymarket currently gives a 59% chance, but I adjust slightly based on general market conditions and the resolution criteria.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
timeout after 30000ms
Bitcoin is currently trading near $62,600 mid-July 2026 and needs to rally about 12% to reach $70,000. While this is a significant move, recent market conditions show some consolidation and resistance in the mid-to-high $60,000 range. Market prediction platforms like Manifold assign about a 23% chance, while Polymarket shows a lower 10.5% probability. Given these factors and the volatility of Bitcoin, a 23% probability is reasonable.
As of mid-July 2026, Bitcoin is trading near $62,600, requiring a roughly 12% rally to reach the $70,000 threshold. Market sentiment and prediction platforms like [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-reach-70k-in-july-2026) and [ominari.com](https://www.ominari.com/market/will-bitcoin-reach-70k-in-july-2026) currently price this outcome between 8% and 11%, reflecting the difficulty of overcoming recent resistance levels in the remaining two weeks of the month. Given the lack of significant bullish catalysts and the consolidation phase noted by [manifold.markets](https://manifold.markets/Fugazi/will-btc-cross-70000-before-the-end), a 12% probability is a calibrated estimate.
The market odds on Polymarket suggest a 28% probability, which aligns with the current market sentiment and recent Bitcoin price trends. Given the volatility and historical performance of Bitcoin, this estimate seems reasonable.
Bitcoin needs to rise ~12% from current levels to hit $70,000, with prediction markets pricing a 8–10.5% chance. Given the remaining time in July and historical volatility patterns, a sharp rally is possible but unlikely, leading to a slightly adjusted probability of 11% based on current momentum and market sentiment.
Bitcoin was trading near $62,600 as of July 14, 2026, needing a ~12% rally to reach $70k. Market probabilities from Polymarket (10.5%) and Manifold (23%) are considered, leading to an independent estimate.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
As of late June 2026, front-month WTI futures are trading near $70, well below the $90 threshold, and Polymarket odds for WTI hitting $90 in July are only 28% [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-july-2026). A US-Iran peace deal and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have eased supply fears, while rising inventories, softening demand, and OPEC+ supply increases add downward pressure [Polymarket](https://polymarket.copilot.markets/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-july-2026). A sudden geopolitical shock or supply disruption could still push prices up, but the base rate and current fundamentals suggest a low probability of reaching $90.
Current market data and trading odds from Polymarket indicate about a 28% chance that WTI crude oil will hit $90 in July 2026. This reflects a balance between easing geopolitical tensions, such as progress toward a US-Iran peace deal and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which have lowered prices to near $70, and ongoing elevated volatility and technical analysis suggesting potential price spikes toward $90 due to lingering risks and supply concerns.
Current market data from [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-july-2026) indicates a 14% probability for WTI Crude Oil reaching $90 in July 2026. With front-month futures trading near $70 and significant downward pressure from rising global inventories and easing geopolitical tensions, a move to $90 would require a major, unexpected supply shock, which is currently considered unlikely by market participants.
As of June 25, 2026, front-month WTI futures trade near $70, down sharply from Q2 peaks amid rising global inventories and softening demand. The market is pricing in a swift return to surplus conditions, with July resolution likely hinging on the pace of Middle East production restarts and any near-term demand data releases. The current trading odds on Polymarket reflect a 28% probability of WTI hitting $90 in July 2026, which aligns with the current market sentiment and projections.
unparseable forecast JSON
As of June 25, 2026, front-month WTI futures trade near $70. While there's progress in the US-Iran peace deal easing supply fears, global inventories are rising and demand is softening, with traders expecting a return to surplus. Geopolitical risks remain, but overall factors point to a moderate chance of hitting $90 in July.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
As of late June 2026, front-month WTI trades near $70, and the geopolitical risk premium has collapsed due to progress on a US-Iran peace deal and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. EIA data and market commentary point to rising inventories and softening demand, with traders pricing a return to surplus. Reaching $95 would require a roughly 36% surge in a single month, which is highly unlikely without a sudden, severe supply disruption. Polymarket odds for this level are in the 8-14% range, and given the current fundamental backdrop, the true probability is at the low end of that range.
Current market data from Polymarket indicates a low probability (14%) that WTI Crude Oil will hit $95 in July 2026. Prices have recently been around $70, with easing geopolitical tensions and increased supply reducing the likelihood of a spike to $95. While volatility remains due to geopolitical risks, the overall supply-demand balance and recent price trends suggest a low chance of reaching $95.
As of late June 2026, WTI Crude Oil is trading near $70 per barrel, significantly below the $95 threshold. Market sentiment has shifted due to easing geopolitical tensions, specifically progress toward a US-Iran peace deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which have reduced supply disruption fears. Given the current market environment of rising global inventories and softening demand, a rapid, sustained, or even spike-driven increase to $95 within the month of July is highly unlikely.
Current market data and expert projections suggest a low likelihood of WTI crude oil reaching $95 in July 2026. Recent trends indicate a downward pressure on prices due to rising inventories and softening demand, with front-month futures trading near $70 as of June 2026. Additionally, the Polymarket probability for WTI hitting $85 in July is only 57%, indicating a significant barrier to reaching $95.
WTI is currently trading near $70 with bearish fundamentals including rising inventories and weakening demand. Reaching $95 would require a significant, unpriced geopolitical or supply shock. Given the $85 market is at 57%, the incremental probability of surpassing $95 is low, leading to an independent estimate of 12%.
As of June 25, 2026, front-month WTI futures trade near $70, with rising global inventories and softening demand. While there's progress toward a US-Iran peace deal, traders price in a swift return to surplus, making hitting $95 in July less likely.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
The Fed has held rates steady since December 2025, and recent communications emphasize patience. No strong economic data suggests an imminent cut or hike. Prediction markets (e.g., Polymarket) assign ~95% probability to three consecutive pauses, reflecting strong consensus. Tail risks from a sharp downturn or inflation spike are modest but non-zero, justifying a slightly lower independent estimate.
Prediction markets such as Polymarket currently assign a high probability (around 93-96%) to the Fed maintaining a pause in rate changes across the April, June, and July 2026 FOMC meetings. This consensus is supported by the Fed's recent steady rate stance since December 2025 and the absence of strong economic signals prompting hikes or cuts. While unexpected events could alter this, the market's deep liquidity and historical accuracy lend strong confidence to the pause-pause-pause outcome.
Current market data and economic consensus strongly favor a 'Pause-Pause-Pause' outcome for the April, June, and July 2026 FOMC meetings. Prediction markets like [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decisions-apr-jul) consistently show high confidence (93-96%) in this scenario, reflecting the expectation that the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rate levels to manage inflation and economic stability.
Prediction markets like Polymarket and Lines.com show strong consensus (91-96%) that the Fed will pause in the next three decisions. The Fed has held rates steady since December 2025, and current economic data suggests a continuation of this trend. The high trading volume and market confidence indicate a low likelihood of rate changes.
Prediction markets such as Polymarket show strong consensus on a Pause–Pause–Pause outcome, with implied probabilities ranging from 86% to 96% [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decisions-apr-jul). The Federal Reserve has held rates steady since December 2025, and current economic indicators—moderating inflation above target and a stable labor market—support a cautious, data-dependent stance. Historical base rates and Fed guidance suggest low likelihood of rate changes in the absence of major economic shocks.
Prediction markets like Polymarket show high probabilities (91% to 96%) for the Fed to Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three meetings, indicating strong market consensus. The Fed has held rates steady since December 2025, suggesting continuity.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Multiple high-volume prediction markets consistently price a 'no change' outcome at 85-96% as of July 17, 2026. The Fed has not signaled any imminent rate change, and the economy appears stable. Given the market depth and proximity to the meeting, the chance of no change is very high, but not certain due to potential surprise data releases.
Current prediction markets show a strong consensus that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged after the July 2026 meeting, with probabilities ranging from 78% to 96%. The high trading volume and liquidity in these markets indicate confidence in this outcome. Given the Fed's recent cautious approach and the lack of strong signals for a rate change, a no-change decision is highly likely.
Market sentiment and current economic expectations strongly favor a pause in interest rate adjustments for the July 2026 FOMC meeting. Prediction markets like Polymarket [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-july-181) show a very high consensus for 'no change,' reflecting the prevailing view that the Federal Reserve will maintain the current target range to assess incoming economic data.
The prediction markets overwhelmingly favor no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting, with Polymarket showing 96% odds [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-july-181), Polyguana at 78% [polyguana.com](https://polyguana.com/market/1654958), and PredictionNinja at 85% [predictionninja.com](https://predictionninja.com/market/will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-july-2026-meeting). The high liquidity and trading volume in these markets suggest strong confidence in this outcome.
The current market-implied probability of no change in the Fed interest rate after the July 2026 meeting is 96%, based on real-money trading activity across multiple platforms. These markets are highly liquid and have strong incentives for accuracy, making them a reliable indicator of the true probability.
Prediction markets show high probabilities of no change, with Polymarket and FRC indicating around 95-96% odds, suggesting strong market expectation.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.