The threshold is a 7-day moving average of 60 transit calls, which is well below the pre-crisis average of ~130. However, as of late July 2026, the situation remains disrupted: the JMIC threat level is 'Substantial,' demining and administrative disputes persist, and recent drone attacks have stalled recovery. The highest post-conflict daily count was 78 on June 24, but the 7-day average likely remains below 60. Polymarket and Manifold markets price the chance of returning to normal by August 31 at 14% and 7-12%, respectively. Given the short remaining window and ongoing security issues, I estimate a 12% probability of reaching the 60-vessel 7-day average by August 31.
Current prediction markets, which aggregate diverse information and trader sentiment, assign about a 14% chance that Strait of Hormuz traffic will return to normal by August 31, 2026. Despite a recent memorandum of understanding and some recovery in transit volume, ongoing security threats, recent attacks, and administrative disputes continue to suppress full normalization. Given these factors and the market's real-time updates, a low probability is justified.
The current maritime security environment in the Strait of Hormuz remains highly volatile, with recent drone attacks on commercial vessels in late June 2026 causing the Joint Maritime Information Center to maintain a 'Substantial' threat level. Given that the threshold for 'normal' traffic (a 7-day moving average of 60 transit calls) requires a sustained recovery that has been repeatedly interrupted by security incidents, it is unlikely that stability will be achieved by the end of August. Market sentiment on prediction platforms like [polymarket.copilot.markets](https://polymarket.copilot.markets/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-august-31-20260702154212320) aligns with this pessimistic outlook.
The current crowd-sourced probability on Polymarket is 14% for "Yes," indicating a low likelihood of Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by August 31. Recent events such as drone attacks and ongoing demining operations suggest continued disruptions, supporting this low probability.
Despite a brief recovery to 78 ships on June 24, subsequent attacks and persistent security risks have stalled normalization. The 7-day average has not approached 60 recently, and political-military obstacles remain unresolved. Prediction markets, which aggregate diverse information, price the probability between 12–14%, suggesting low but non-zero chances. Adjusting slightly for potential late improvements, the true probability is estimated at 13%.
Current Polymarket crowd-sourced probability is 14%, with other markets showing similar low odds. Key factors include ongoing crisis-related disruptions and the need for transit volume to meet the 7-day moving average threshold.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
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Current market data and analysis indicate a near-even chance of Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by July 31, 2026, with a 46% implied probability. The main factors influencing this are ongoing U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks, naval activity levels, and insurance costs affecting shipping routes. The market is sensitive to any diplomatic progress or verified reduction in naval disruptions, which could quickly increase the probability of traffic normalization.
The market for this event is currently thin and volatile, with recent pricing reflecting significant uncertainty regarding U.S.-Iran diplomatic progress. While there is a pathway for normalization through ongoing indirect talks, the persistence of regional tensions and the economic incentives for shipping companies to maintain current rerouting strategies suggest that reaching the 60-call threshold by July 31 remains a challenging hurdle. The probability is adjusted slightly downward from market consensus due to the lack of concrete de-escalation milestones in the immediate term.
The probability is based on the current market odds and the diplomatic context. The market is near even odds, with a 46% implied probability of YES, indicating a nearly even chance of traffic returning to normal by July 31. The key factors include the status of U.S.-Iran negotiations, U.S. Navy Fifth Fleet operational announcements, and Iranian Foreign Ministry statements on shipping corridor guarantees.
As of July 21, 2026, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to normal shipping traffic, with transit levels still a fraction of the pre-February 2026 average of ~100 daily passages [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31). Despite a US-Iran framework agreement, persistent security risks, de-mining requirements, and high insurance premiums continue to deter vessel transits. Current market-implied probability for a return to normal traffic (7-day average ≥60) by July 31 is just 2% [pdata.world](https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/455867), reflecting minimal confidence in a near-term recovery. With only 10 days remaining and no indication of a sudden surge in transit data, the base rate of sustained closure makes a rapid normalization highly unlikely.
The market has an implied probability of 46% for the strait's traffic to return to normal by July 31, considering the 60 transit call threshold and active diplomatic factors.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
The market requires a continuous 14-day period with no qualifying US military action against Iran beginning by July 24, 2026. As of July 20-21, fresh US airstrikes have been reported, resetting any potential clock. With only 3-4 days left until the deadline, it is geometrically impossible to complete a 14-day window. Polymarket prices for the July 24 contract are around 13-16%, but the mechanical constraint makes a Yes resolution virtually impossible unless a 14-day pause had already started before market creation on July 15—which is contradicted by confirmed US strikes on July 8 and July 18-20. [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-iran-effective-ceasfire-byptptpt-2-week-pause-20260715194822042) [CryptoSlate](https://cryptoslate.com/predictions/market/us-iran-effective-ceasefire-by-2-week-pause/)
Given the requirement of a continuous 14-day period without qualifying US military action starting on or before July 24, and the fact that active strikes were ongoing as of mid-July, it is highly unlikely that such a ceasefire window exists or will be completed by the deadline. The absence of diplomatic channels and ongoing retaliations further reduce the likelihood. Market data and expert analysis also suggest a low probability around 10-12%.
The market requires a 14-day period of no qualifying U.S. military action against Iran. Given that recent reports confirm an exchange of strikes as of July 18, 2026, it is mathematically impossible to complete a 14-day window before the July 24 deadline. The only path to 'Yes' would be if a 14-day period had already been in progress and completed, but current evidence of active hostilities makes this scenario highly improbable.
The probability is low due to the high bar of a continuous 14-day period without US military action against Iran by July 24, 2026. Recent exchanges of strikes and the lack of an active diplomatic channel make this outcome unlikely. The market-implied probabilities and expert analysis support this low probability.
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The market has low odds for a July 24 ceasefire due to the need for a 14-day continuous period starting before July 15, and recent US strikes and collapsed ceasefire make it unlikely.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
The US and Iran are currently engaged in active hostilities, with US bombing campaigns and Iranian retaliatory strikes ongoing as of July 21, 2026. The June 14 MoU appears to have collapsed, as Al Jazeera reports 'the worst fighting in months' and that the agreement has 'effectively collapsed.' Given the intense military conflict, mutual distrust, and lack of any recent diplomatic progress, the likelihood of a final nuclear deal being signed by August 18 is very low. Base rates for such deals during active war are near zero, and the current trajectory points to further escalation, not negotiation.
Despite the June 14, 2026 memorandum of understanding initiating a 60-day negotiation window toward a final nuclear deal, ongoing hostilities and military strikes between the US and Iran as of late July 2026 indicate severe tensions and conflict escalation. The US has conducted 10 consecutive nights of airstrikes on Iran, and Iran has retaliated with attacks on US assets, suggesting a deteriorating diplomatic environment. Given these escalations and the complexity of nuclear negotiations, the likelihood of a mutually signed final deal by August 18, 2026 is low but not impossible, as diplomatic efforts may still proceed under pressure to avoid further conflict.
The diplomatic environment has deteriorated significantly since the June 2026 Memorandum of Understanding. With the US conducting ten consecutive nights of airstrikes against Iranian targets and Iran retaliating with attacks on US assets in Kuwait and commercial shipping, the two nations are currently in a state of active military conflict. This escalation makes the successful negotiation and signing of a final nuclear deal by the August 18 deadline extremely unlikely.
The current escalation between the US and Iran, with ongoing military strikes and retaliatory actions, significantly reduces the likelihood of a final nuclear deal by August 18, 2026. The aggressive rhetoric and continued hostilities suggest that diplomatic efforts are not progressing towards a final agreement.
The ongoing military escalation between the US and Iran, with the US conducting airstrikes for ten consecutive nights and Iran retaliating against US targets in Kuwait and the Gulf, indicates a severe breakdown in diplomatic relations [aljazeera.com](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/7/21/iran-war-live-us-launches-10th-night-of-strikes-tehran-attacks-kuwait?traffic_source=rss). President Trump's vow of harsh retaliation for American deaths and Iran's continued attacks suggest both sides are in conflict mode, not negotiation mode. Given this context, the likelihood of a final nuclear deal being formally adopted by August 18, 2026, is very low, despite the earlier 60-day MoU framework.
Ongoing US-Iran military escalation (10th night of strikes, Iranian retaliatory attacks) likely hinders final nuclear deal negotiations within the August 18 deadline.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Polymarket markets for related Bitcoin dip levels show a current probability of 8.5% for BTC touching $57,500 in July 2026, with lower probabilities for deeper dips (e.g., $55,000 at 3.3%, $52,500 at 3.5%, $50,000 at 2.5%). These market-implied probabilities serve as a strong base rate, reflecting aggregated trader expectations. Given the specific resolution criteria (any 1-minute candle low on Binance) and the proximity to the end of July (about 10 days remaining), the 8.5% figure is a reasonable estimate, adjusted slightly downward to 8% to account for the limited remaining time and the fact that deeper dip probabilities are much lower, suggesting a steep drop is less likely.
Current prediction markets on Polymarket assign about an 8.5% chance that Bitcoin will dip to $57,500 or lower on Binance's BTC/USDT pair during July 2026. This low probability reflects the market's view that such a dip is possible but not highly likely given recent price trends and volatility patterns. Since the market uses precise 1-minute candle lows on Binance for resolution, the probability is based on high-frequency price data and market sentiment.
Current market data from [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-dip-to-57pt5k-in-july-2026) indicates an 8.5% probability for Bitcoin hitting $57,500 in July 2026. Given that we are late in the month and the price has not yet reached this threshold, the likelihood of a sudden, significant volatility event occurring in the remaining days is relatively low.
The current market odds on Polymarket suggest a 8.5% chance of Bitcoin dipping to $57,500 in July 2026. However, considering the broader context and the fact that markets for lower price points ($55,000 and $52,500) show even lower probabilities (3.3% and 3.5% respectively), a more conservative estimate is warranted. The base rate for significant dips in Bitcoin is relatively low, and the specific evidence from these markets suggests a modest probability.
The Polymarket prediction market for Bitcoin dipping to $57,500 in July 2026 currently prices the event at 8.5% odds, reflecting aggregated trader expectations based on real-money wagers. This aligns with the resolution criteria tied strictly to Binance's BTC/USDT one-minute candle low prices. Given the efficient nature of cryptocurrency prediction markets and the specific, observable resolution condition, this market price serves as a well-informed proxy for the true probability.
Polymarket currently prices the event at 8.5% based on Binance 1-minute BTC/USDT candle low prices in July 2026.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Polymarket and Myriad markets currently price this event at 7–10%, reflecting a low but non-zero chance. Bitcoin would need a roughly 10%+ rally from current levels (~$65,000) in the remaining ~10 days of July, which is historically possible but unlikely given recent price action and low volatility. The 1-minute candle resolution criterion makes it slightly easier than a close-based target, but the required move is still large.
Market data from Polymarket and Myriad currently assign about a 10% probability to Bitcoin reaching $72,500 on Binance during July 2026. Given Bitcoin's historical volatility and the fact that higher price targets like $75,000 have even lower probabilities (~4-7%), a 10% chance for $72,500 is reasonable. There is no strong bullish momentum or fundamental catalyst indicating a higher likelihood at this time.
As of late July 2026, market participants on platforms like [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-reach-72pt5k-in-july-2026) and [myriad.markets](https://myriad.markets/events/btc-highs-in-july-2108ac54) have consistently priced this outcome at approximately 10-12%. Given that the month is nearly over and Bitcoin has not yet reached the $72,500 threshold, the probability of a sudden, significant price spike in the remaining days is low, reflecting current market sentiment and volatility expectations.
The probability is based on the current market odds from Polymarket and Myriad, which indicate a low likelihood of Bitcoin reaching $72,500 in July. The Polymarket market gives it a 10.4% chance, while Myriad shows a 12% chance. These markets aggregate predictions from various traders and analysts, providing a reasonable estimate of the true probability.
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Polymarket currently gives a 10.4% chance, and the resolution depends on Binance 1-minute BTC/USDT high candles in July.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Multiple prediction markets (Polymarket, Orrery, Kresmion) currently price this event at 2-4.3%, reflecting a very low implied probability. Bitcoin would need to rally roughly 20% from its current level (~$62,500) in the remaining ~10 days of July, which is a large move in a short time. While such a spike is possible, the consensus of informed traders and the lack of a strong catalyst make it unlikely.
Current prediction markets show low probabilities for Bitcoin reaching $75,000 in July 2026, ranging from about 2% to 4.3%. Given Bitcoin's historical volatility and current market sentiment, a spike to $75,000 within one month is unlikely but not impossible. The consensus from multiple prediction markets suggests a low chance, so a probability around 4% is reasonable.
Given that we are already late in July 2026 and market sentiment reflected in prediction platforms like Polymarket, Kresmion, and Orrery consistently places the probability of Bitcoin hitting $75,000 at a very low level (between 2% and 7%), it is highly unlikely that the price will reach this threshold in the remaining days of the month. The current market data suggests that the volatility required to reach this target is not expected to materialize.
The market odds from multiple sources (Polymarket, Orrery, Kresmion) consistently show very low probabilities (ranging from 2% to 7%) for Bitcoin reaching $75,000 in July 2026. These low probabilities suggest a consensus among traders and analysts that such a price target is highly unlikely in the given timeframe. The key factors include the current market sentiment, historical price movements, and the volatility of Bitcoin prices.
While Bitcoin has touched $75,000 in the past, it has not done so in July 2026 as of mid-month. A sharp rally would be needed, which is plausible due to ETF flows or macro shifts, but current market sentiment and price action suggest low immediate momentum. Aggregating prediction market signals and adjusting for base rate of volatility, a 6% independent probability is well-calibrated.
Prediction markets like Polymarket, Orrery, and Kresmion give low probabilities (2-7%) based on Binance 1-minute BTC/USDT candle high prices for July.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
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Iran has shown some friction and temporary withdrawals from negotiation sessions but has not made any official, clear, and unambiguous announcement terminating participation in the MOU negotiations. The structural asymmetry means Iran can slow-walk or protest without triggering a formal withdrawal. Given the current state of talks and the lack of a definitive public statement, the probability of an official withdrawal announcement by July 31 remains low but non-negligible.
While Iran has shown tactical brinkmanship by temporarily withdrawing from specific sessions in protest of U.S. statements, there is no evidence of a formal, definitive, and unconditional decision to terminate the entire negotiation process. The high threshold for a 'qualifying announcement'—which excludes temporary walkouts or conditional threats—makes a 'Yes' outcome unlikely, as Iran typically prefers to maintain leverage through continued, albeit difficult, participation rather than a total, official exit.
The recent tensions and Iranian officials' temporary withdrawal from sessions suggest some level of dissatisfaction, but there has been no official announcement of a definitive withdrawal. The structural asymmetry in the market implies that Iran can remain in the MOU framework without being cooperative, making a formal withdrawal less likely. However, the recent escalation in hostilities and Iran's suggestion of suspending the MoU indicate a heightened risk of withdrawal.
Iran has shown willingness to protest within the negotiation process but has not made a clear, official announcement of withdrawal. The threshold for 'Yes' requires a definitive and unambiguous declaration through official channels, which has not occurred. Market-implied probabilities and current diplomatic activity suggest low odds of such an announcement before July 31.
Iran needs a clear official announcement to trigger a 'Yes'. Ongoing frictions exist, but past temporary withdrawals without permanent exit suggest lower likelihood. Market odds imply higher 'No' probability.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
While there is strong political pressure and reports that Zelenskyy is actively considering replacing Syrskyi, the official denial and the president's stated need to find a successor first suggest a delay is likely. The protest deadline of July 24 may force a decision, but the lack of a named successor and the complexity of a wartime command change make it more probable that any announcement occurs after July 31. Base rates for sudden wartime command changes are low, and the market's 42% seems too optimistic given the official denial and the president's cautious approach.
Despite ongoing protests demanding Syrskyi's removal and President Zelenskyy's consultations with military commanders, no official announcement of Syrskyi's departure has been made as of late July 2026. The General Staff has denied dismissal reports, and the president appears cautious, awaiting a suitable replacement. Market sentiment shows moderate probability but not a consensus, reflecting uncertainty and political complexity.
There is significant political pressure and ongoing public protests demanding the dismissal of Oleksandr Syrskyi, with a specific deadline set for July 24, 2026. High-level government sources, including the President's Office, have indicated that the public's concerns have been heard and that 'results' are expected following a series of meetings between President Zelenskyy and senior military commanders. While the General Staff has officially denied current dismissal reports, the active search for a successor and the political necessity to address public unrest suggest a high likelihood of a leadership change before the end of July.
The AFU General Staff has denied reports of Syrskyi's dismissal, but there are strong indications from other sources that Zelenskyy is considering replacing him. The prediction market on Polymarket shows a 42% chance of Syrskyi being out by July 31, 2026, which aligns with the current political climate and public pressure.
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The General Staff denied dismissal, but Zelenskyy is considering replacements and promised results. Polymarket odds for July 31 are 42%.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Current WTI futures trade near $70, requiring a ~21% rally to hit $85. Fundamentals are bearish with rising global inventories, softening demand, and OPEC+ supply increases. While geopolitical risks could cause a spike, the magnitude needed is large and unlikely within July. Polymarket odds near 70% appear overpriced relative to the fundamental outlook.
Current market sentiment and trading odds from multiple prediction markets indicate about a 70-72.5% chance that WTI crude oil will hit $85 in July 2026. Despite recent prices near $70 and downward pressure from rising inventories and supply growth, volatility and geopolitical risks could drive prices up to or beyond $85 during the month. The probability reflects a balance between bearish fundamentals and potential bullish shocks.
While market sentiment on prediction platforms like [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-july-2026) suggests higher odds, current fundamental data indicates WTI is trading near $70 due to rising inventories and softening demand. Reaching $85 would require a significant, unexpected supply shock or a major geopolitical escalation, which is less likely than the current trend of surplus conditions and non-OPEC supply growth.
Current WTI futures are trading near $70, down from Q2 peaks due to easing supply disruption fears and rising inventories. While geopolitical risks remain, the market is pricing in a return to surplus conditions, making a significant price spike to $85 less likely. However, volatility and potential demand data releases could still drive prices higher.
unparseable forecast JSON
Market odds from Polymarket and Orrery are around 70-72.5%. Current front-month WTI near $70, with factors like rising inventories, softening demand, and geopolitical risks, but also potential for price increases.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
The April and June FOMC meetings have already resulted in pauses, as confirmed by the ongoing prediction market that still trades on the full sequence. The only remaining decision is the July 28-29 meeting. The Fed has held rates steady since December 2025, inflation remains above the 2.5% target, and the labor market is cooling gradually without signs of a sharp downturn. Fed communications emphasize data dependence with no urgency to cut, and prediction markets assign a 96% probability to a July pause. Therefore, the chance of three consecutive pauses is very high.
Prediction markets, including Polymarket and World Event Trading, currently price the probability of the Fed pausing at all three upcoming FOMC meetings (April, June, July 2026) at around 93%. This high confidence reflects stable inflation above target, a cooling but intact labor market, and the Fed's recent communications emphasizing data dependence without urgency to cut or hike rates. The main risks to this outcome would be unexpected economic shocks or financial market stress, but current data and market sentiment strongly favor consecutive pauses.
Current market data and economic indicators strongly favor a 'Pause-Pause-Pause' outcome for the upcoming FOMC meetings. With inflation remaining above target and the labor market showing resilience, the Federal Reserve has signaled a data-dependent approach with no immediate urgency to cut rates, leading prediction markets to price this outcome at approximately 93%.
Prediction markets and Fed futures indicate a strong consensus that the Fed will maintain the current interest rate range of 4.25% to 4.50% through the April, June, and July 2026 meetings. The implied probability from Polymarket is 93% [polymarket.copilot.markets](https://polymarket.copilot.markets/event/fed-decisions-apr-jul), and other sources suggest a 78.5% probability [lines.com](https://www.lines.com/prediction-markets/economy/fed-decisions-apr-jul). The Fed has signaled data dependence with no urgency to cut, and economic indicators such as core PCE inflation and nonfarm payrolls support a hold stance.
The Fed has maintained a steady rate since late 2025, and current economic indicators—moderately high inflation and stable employment—support maintaining the status quo. Market pricing from [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decisions-apr-jul), [lines.com](https://www.lines.com/prediction-markets/economy/fed-decisions-apr-jul), and the [CME FedWatch tool](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interestrates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html) consistently reflect high confidence in three consecutive pauses, with implied probabilities ranging from 78.5% to 96%. Adjusting for market overconfidence and tail risks (e.g., unexpected economic downturn), a slightly more conservative estimate of 82% is appropriate.
Multiple prediction markets show high probabilities for the Fed pausing in all three meetings, and current economic conditions support rate pauses.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Multiple prediction markets consistently show a 93-96% implied probability of no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting, with high volume and liquidity supporting these estimates. The FOMC has maintained a steady rate since late 2024 amid moderating inflation and stable employment, and no recent economic data or Fed commentary suggests a shift at this meeting. Base rates for mid-cycle FOMC meetings also favor no change, and the market's strong consensus just days before the decision is a reliable signal.
Multiple prediction markets consistently show a very high probability (around 92-94%) that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged after the July 2026 meeting. This consensus reflects current market expectations and the absence of strong signals for a rate change. Given the Fed's recent cautious approach and the market's aggregated wisdom, a no-change outcome is highly likely.
Market sentiment and prediction platforms consistently indicate a high probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates during the July 2026 FOMC meeting. While the probability has fluctuated slightly, the consensus remains strongly in favor of 'no change,' reflecting expectations of stable monetary policy in the current economic environment.
The prediction markets on Polymarket and PredictionNinja show a high probability of no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting, with Polymarket indicating 93% and PredictionNinja showing 84.5%. These markets aggregate the collective wisdom of traders and are generally well-calibrated. The consistency across different platforms suggests a strong consensus.
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Prediction markets show high probabilities for no change, with Polymarket at 93% and others around 85%, indicating strong market expectation.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.