Iran has conducted two full airspace closures in early 2026 (January and February), demonstrating willingness to act, but no such closure has occurred in the following four months. Only 13 days remain until the July 31 deadline, and there is no recent escalation or trigger event that would prompt a new general closure. The Polymarket probability of 23% incorporates current information, but the short remaining window and absence of recent qualifying events lead me to estimate a slightly lower probability of 0.20.
Recent market data from Polymarket and Orrery indicate a 23% implied probability of Iran fully closing its airspace by July 31, 2026. Historical precedent shows Iran has closed its airspace fully in early 2026, but such closures are infrequent and typically linked to specific political or military events. Current information does not suggest an imminent closure, but the possibility remains given regional tensions and past behavior.
The current market probability reflects a low likelihood of a full, non-weather-related airspace closure by the end of July 2026. While geopolitical tensions in the region remain a constant factor, historical precedents for 'general closures' are rare and typically tied to specific, high-intensity military escalations. Without immediate signs of such an event, the base rate for a total shutdown of the Tehran FIR remains low.
The current implied probability on Polymarket is 23%, which suggests a low likelihood of a full airspace closure by July 31. Recent NOTAMs indicate partial reopenings and operational statuses, which do not meet the criteria for a general closure. Historical patterns show that full closures are rare and typically tied to specific events.
As of July 17, 2026, the Polymarket price implies a 23% probability of a full Iranian airspace closure by July 31, 2026 [Orrery.me](https://orrery.me/markets/iran-full-airspace-closure-by-july-31-20260625195254150). Recent events, such as the partial closure in June 2026, do not meet the threshold for a 'general closure' as defined, since operations resumed in the eastern FIR and major airports remained open [Polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-closes-its-airspace-byptptpt-20260609184135829). The market definition requires a broad suspension of commercial aviation across Tehran FIR, not limited to military drills or regional restrictions, which has not occurred recently.
As of July 17, 2026, the Polymarket implied probability for Iran full airspace closure by July 31 is 23%, considering the current market consensus and historical context of past closures.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
The threshold of 60 transit calls (7-day average) is far from current levels, and with only 13 days left, a rapid ramp-up is extremely unlikely due to lingering security issues, de-mining needs, and insurer caution. The market consensus of 1% aligns with this assessment.
Current prediction markets show a very low probability (around 1%) that Strait of Hormuz traffic will return to normal by July 31, 2026, reflecting ongoing security risks, de-mining needs, and high insurance costs that continue to suppress shipping traffic. Although there is some diplomatic engagement between the US and Iran, progress has been limited and the market consensus remains strongly pessimistic about a full recovery within the short timeframe. Given these factors and the historical difficulty in rapidly normalizing traffic under such conditions, a low probability is warranted.
The current military escalation between the US and Iran, including a declared closure of the Strait and active strikes, has reduced transit numbers to levels far below the required 7-day moving average of 60. With only days remaining until the July 31 deadline, it is physically and diplomatically impossible for shipping traffic to recover to the necessary threshold, even if a sudden ceasefire were to occur.
The current market probability is near even odds, with diplomatic progress between the U.S. and Iran being the primary catalyst. Recent framework agreements have lifted hopes, but persistent security risks and de-mining requirements continue to constrain vessel transits. The 80-day window allows for potential diplomatic developments to translate into measurable shipping recovery.
The overwhelming consensus in the prediction market, with a 1% 'Yes' price and $17M in trading volume, reflects strong confidence that traffic will not return to normal by July 31. Despite diplomatic efforts, on-the-ground conditions remain unfavorable for a rapid recovery in transits. The 1% probability aligns with observable data and base rates for similar geopolitical disruptions.
The Polymarket crowd currently assigns a 1% probability, with factors like persistent security risks, de-mining, and elevated insurance premiums constraining transits.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Given the US strike on July 14, the earliest possible completion of a 14-day pause is July 28. Since the question resolves on July 24, it is effectively impossible to achieve the required 14 consecutive days without a qualifying action. A tiny residual probability accounts for definitional ambiguities or errors in reporting, but the logical constraint makes a YES resolution extremely unlikely.
Given the recent U.S. air strike on July 14, 2026, the 14-day ceasefire clock would only start on July 15, making it impossible to complete a continuous 14-day pause by July 24. The market and expert analysis assign a very low probability (~4.5%) to a ceasefire by this date, reflecting the operational realities and ongoing tensions that make a quick ceasefire unlikely.
A qualifying military action occurred on July 14, 2026, which reset the 14-day clock. For a 'Yes' resolution by July 24, a 14-day period of no qualifying strikes would have needed to conclude by that date, which is mathematically impossible given the July 14 reset. Current market data and analysis confirm that the July 24 deadline is highly improbable due to this recent escalation.
The recent U.S. strike on July 14, 2026, resets the 14-day ceasefire clock, making it highly improbable for a continuous 14-day pause to occur by July 24. The market odds and expert analysis support this low probability.
A U.S. strike on July 14, 2026, reset the 14-day ceasefire clock to July 15, meaning a full 14-day pause could only be completed by July 28 at the earliest. Since the market resolves on July 24, there is insufficient time for the required pause to conclude. Market odds reflect this, assigning only a 15.5% chance to a July 24 resolution [polymarketsignal.com](https://polymarketsignal.com/us-x-iran-effective-ceasefire-by-2-week-pause/). Ongoing tensions and the likelihood of further U.S. actions make an earlier clock start unlikely.
The 14-day ceasefire clock reset on July 15 after the US strike on July 14. However, the low probability for July 24 (15.5%) and expectation of further US military actions make a continuous 14-day period by July 24 unlikely.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
The June 14 MOU created a 60-day window for final negotiations, but the deadline is very tight. The complexity of agreeing on concrete, measurable nuclear limits (e.g., enrichment caps, stockpile reductions) and the history of protracted US-Iran talks suggest a low likelihood of a fully signed deal by August 18. While the MOU shows momentum, the lack of positive signals in recent news and the short remaining time point to a modest probability around 35%.
While the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement on June 14, 2026, initiating a 60-day negotiation period toward a final deal, recent news indicates ongoing regional conflicts and tensions, such as Israeli attacks on Gaza and Russian-Ukrainian hostilities, which may complicate diplomatic progress. No reports confirm a final signed or formally adopted deal by mid-July 2026, and the complexity of the issues involved suggests a low to moderate chance of concluding a final deal by August 18, 2026.
While the June 2026 memorandum of understanding [cnn.com](https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/17/middleeast/us-iran-war-mou-text-intl) established a framework for negotiations, the timeline to reach a 'final deal' with concrete, measurable nuclear benchmarks by August 18, 2026, is extremely tight. Diplomatic negotiations of this complexity typically face significant hurdles regarding verification and domestic political opposition in both nations. Given the current geopolitical climate, including ongoing regional conflicts, the likelihood of finalizing and signing a comprehensive, binding instrument within the remaining month is low.
The recent agreement between the US and Iran on June 14, 2026, set a 60-day period for finalizing a nuclear deal. Given the complex nature of such negotiations and the historical challenges in US-Iran relations, the probability of reaching a final deal by August 18, 2026, is moderate. Key factors include the political will of both countries, the complexity of the nuclear program restrictions, and the potential for external influences to derail the negotiations.
While the US and Iran have established a diplomatic framework by June 14, 2026, no final instrument has been signed or adopted as of mid-July. Given the lack of public progress and ongoing regional conflicts diverting attention, the probability of concluding a qualifying final deal by August 18 is low but not negligible. Base rates for such complex bilateral deals suggest frequent delays, supporting a cautious estimate.
There is a 60-day negotiation period from June 14, 2026, ending before August 18, 2026, but no current information on the progress of the negotiations from the web search results.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Prediction markets on Polymarket (21.5%) and Myriad (34%) imply a roughly 27% chance of Bitcoin dipping to $57,500 in July 2026. With half the month already elapsed, the remaining 13 days offer moderate opportunity for a sharp move, but current price levels (not explicitly known) likely sit above the target, making a dip possible but not highly probable. The market-implied probabilities serve as a reasonable base rate, adjusted slightly upward to account for typical Bitcoin volatility.
Market data from Polymarket and Myriad indicate a roughly 21.5% to 24% chance that Bitcoin will dip to $57,500 or lower on Binance during July 2026. Given the volatility of Bitcoin and the current market sentiment, this probability aligns with historical dip frequencies and market expectations for that price level.
The current market consensus on Polymarket, as reported by [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-dip-to-57pt5k-in-july-2026), places the probability of Bitcoin hitting $57,500 or lower on a one-minute Binance candle at approximately 21.5%. Given the volatility of cryptocurrency markets and the specific requirement for a single one-minute candle to touch this price point, this estimate reflects the current market sentiment and historical volatility patterns for July 2026.
The current market odds on Polymarket suggest a 21.5% chance of Bitcoin dipping to $57,500 in July 2026. This is higher than the probabilities for lower price points ($55,000 at 12.5%, $52,500 at 3.5%, and $50,000 at 2.5%), indicating a higher likelihood of a dip to $57,500. Given the volatility of Bitcoin, this estimate seems reasonable, but slightly conservative.
The probability is based on current market pricing from Polymarket, where the contract for Bitcoin dipping to $57,500 or lower in July 2026 is trading at 21.5% [polymarket.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-dip-to-57pt5k-in-july-2026). This reflects aggregated trader expectations using real-time data from Binance's BTC/USDT 1-minute candles, which is the resolution source. While market prices are not perfect predictors, they incorporate diverse information and tend to be well-calibrated for near-term, clearly defined events like this.
Polymarket currently assigns a 21.5% probability for Bitcoin dipping to $57,500 in July 2026 based on Binance 1-minute candle data.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
As of July 18, 2026, Polymarket and Ominari show the probability of Bitcoin reaching $67,500 in July at about 24-40%, with Polymarket's specific market at 41% and Ominari at 40%. However, the current Bitcoin price is likely well below $67,500 (given the $72,500 market has only 5.5% odds), and with only 13 days left in July, a spike of that magnitude is historically unlikely. Base rates for such large monthly moves are low, and the market-implied probability of ~24-41% seems slightly optimistic; I lean toward the lower end around 24%.
Current prediction markets and trading data from Polymarket and Ominari indicate about a 24.5% chance that Bitcoin will reach $67,500 in July 2026 based on Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle highs. Given Bitcoin's volatility and recent price trends, this moderate probability reflects both the challenge of reaching this level and the possibility of short-term spikes.
Market sentiment on prediction platforms like Polymarket and Ominari currently reflects a probability range between 24.5% and 41% for Bitcoin reaching $67,500 in July 2026. Given the inherent volatility of Bitcoin and the fact that the threshold is relatively close to recent price levels, there is a significant but not majority chance of a brief spike hitting this target before the end of the month.
The current market odds on Polymarket suggest a 41% chance of Bitcoin reaching $67,500 in July 2026, which aligns with the recent price trends and market sentiment. The resolution criteria are clear, focusing solely on Binance's BTC/USDT 1-minute candle data. Given the volatility and historical performance of Bitcoin, this probability seems reasonable.
The current market-implied probability on Polymarket is 24.5% for Bitcoin reaching $67,500 in July 2026, based on real-money trading activity [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com). This reflects the collective expectations of informed traders. While speculative, prediction markets like Polymarket and Ominari have historically shown skill in forecasting such events, and no strong contrary evidence suggests a significant deviation from this consensus. Therefore, the best independent estimate aligns with the market price.
Based on current market conditions and historical price trends, considering the resolution is based on Binance 1-minute candles in July, there's a moderate chance Bitcoin reaches $67,500.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Based on current Bitcoin price around $62,600 and only two weeks remaining in July, a 12% gain to $70,000 is possible but unlikely given recent consolidation and lack of a clear bullish catalyst. Prediction markets price this at 13-23%, and I lean toward the lower end due to the short timeframe and resistance in the mid-$60k range. I estimate a 15% chance, consistent with the Polymarket odds and the difficulty of such a move in the remaining days.
Current market-based predictions and trading data suggest a relatively low probability, around 13.5%, that Bitcoin will reach $70,000 on Binance during July 2026. Bitcoin is trading near $62,600 mid-July, requiring a roughly 12% rally to hit $70,000, which is challenging given recent consolidation and resistance levels. Market odds from Polymarket and Ominari align around 13.5%, while Manifold markets suggest about 23%, but the more conservative and exchange-specific data from Binance-based markets is more relevant here.
As of mid-July 2026, Bitcoin is trading near $62,600, requiring a roughly 12% rally to hit $70,000. While prediction markets like Polymarket and Ominari currently price this outcome between 13.5% and 17%, the volatility inherent in crypto markets allows for a non-negligible chance of a sudden spike. Given the remaining time in the month and current consolidation patterns, a probability slightly above the market consensus is reasonable to account for potential short-term volatility.
Bitcoin's current price and recent trends suggest a moderate likelihood of reaching $70,000 in July. The market is pricing this event at around 10-28%, but given the historical volatility and potential for significant rallies, a slightly higher probability is reasonable.
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Polymarket prices a 13.5% probability based on Binance 1-minute candle high prices, and Bitcoin needs a ~12% rally from mid-July levels.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
As of July 18, 2026, WTI crude oil is trading near $85, with prediction markets pricing a ~60% chance of hitting $85 in July. With about 13 trading days remaining and typical daily volatility of 1-3%, the probability is moderately high but not certain. The recent upward trend (+44pp in the last week) supports a near-term test of that level.
Current market-based probabilities from multiple prediction markets and trading platforms indicate about a 57% chance that WTI Crude Oil will hit $85 or higher at any point during July 2026. This reflects moderate confidence based on futures market data, recent price trends, and trading volumes. Given the volatility of oil prices and the active trading environment, this probability is a reasonable estimate.
The market probability for WTI Crude Oil hitting $85 in July 2026 has been trending upward, currently sitting at approximately 57% according to [orrery.me](https://orrery.me/markets/will-wti-reach-85-in-july-2026) and [polymarket.copilot.markets](https://polymarket.copilot.markets/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-july-2026). Given that the resolution depends on a single 1-minute candle touching the $85 threshold, the probability is sensitive to short-term volatility in oil markets, which remains elevated.
The current market consensus on Polymarket and Orrery suggests a probability of around 57-66% that WTI Crude Oil will hit $85 in July 2026. Given the recent upward trend in oil prices and the significant trading volume, it is reasonable to adjust the probability slightly higher, considering the market's collective wisdom and recent price movements.
Market prices across multiple platforms cluster between 57% and 66%, with a recent volume-weighted reading near 66% [polymarket.copilot.markets](https://polymarket.copilot.markets/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-july-2026), indicating substantial belief in a breakout. I anchor to the consensus implied probability, adjusting slightly downward due to typical over-optimism in prediction markets, but maintain a high probability given strong fundamentals and clear resolution criteria.
Based on Polymarket's implied probabilities ranging from 57% to 66%, the midpoint is considered. Market factors and the resolution source (Pyth data) are key.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
timeout after 30000ms
Current market data and trading odds from Polymarket indicate a roughly 14% chance that WTI Crude Oil will hit $90 in July 2026. This low probability reflects recent price trends around $70, easing supply disruptions, and expectations of surplus conditions due to increased production and softening demand. Elevated volatility and geopolitical risks remain, but overall market sentiment points to a low likelihood of reaching $90.
As of late June 2026, WTI crude oil is trading near $70 per barrel, significantly below the $90 threshold. Market sentiment has shifted toward a surplus due to easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and increased non-OPEC supply, making a $20 rally in July unlikely without a major, unforeseen supply shock.
As of June 25, 2026, front-month WTI futures trade near $70, down sharply from Q2 peaks amid rising global inventories and softening demand. EIA projections highlight accelerating OECD stock draws through Q3 before gradual replenishment, while non-OPEC supply growth and OPEC+ unwind add downward pressure. Traders price in a swift return to surplus conditions, with July resolution likely hinging on the pace of Middle East production restarts and any near-term demand data releases. Volatility remains elevated given lingering geopolitical risks. The market odds on Polymarket for WTI hitting $90 in July 2026 are 28% [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-july-2026).
As of June 25, 2026, WTI crude oil futures are trading near $70, down from earlier peaks, due to eased supply disruption fears following progress in US-Iran peace talks and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-july-2026). Market indicators show bearish pressure from rising global inventories, non-OPEC supply growth, and expected OPEC+ unwind, making a surge to $90 unlikely. The Polymarket odds for WTI hitting $90 in July 2026 stand at 28%, reflecting low trader confidence in a sharp rally [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.copilot.markets/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-july-2026).
As of June 25, 2026, front-month WTI futures trade near $70. While geopolitical risks exist, rising global inventories and softening demand pressure prices. Market odds for hitting $90 are around 33%, so a 0.35 probability is set.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
WTI crude oil is trading near $70 with bearish fundamentals (rising inventories, OPEC+ unwinding, potential Iranian supply return). A move to $95 would require a massive unanticipated supply disruption or demand surge, which seems improbable given the current trajectory. Polymarket odds for $95 were 14% in late June and have likely dropped further as the month progresses. I estimate an 8% chance of a brief intraday spike to $95 during July 2026.
Current market data and trading odds from Polymarket indicate a low probability (around 14%) that WTI Crude Oil will hit $95 in July 2026. Prices are currently near $70, with recent easing of supply disruptions and rising inventories reducing the likelihood of a sharp price spike to $95. Although geopolitical risks and Middle East production restarts could cause volatility, the consensus points to a lower chance of reaching $95 within the month.
As of late June 2026, WTI Crude Oil is trading near $70/bbl, significantly below the $95 threshold. Market sentiment has shifted toward a surplus due to easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and rising global inventories, making a rapid 35% price spike to $95 in July highly unlikely without a major, unforeseen supply shock.
As of June 25, 2026, front-month WTI futures trade near $70, down sharply from Q2 peaks amid rising global inventories and softening demand. Recent progress toward a US-Iran peace deal and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has eased supply disruption fears. EIA projections highlight accelerating OECD stock draws through Q3 before gradual replenishment, while non-OPEC supply growth and OPEC+ unwind add downward pressure. Traders price in a swift return to surplus conditions, making it unlikely for WTI to hit $95 in July 2026.
As of late June 2026, WTI crude oil is trading near $70/bbl, down from earlier peaks, due to eased geopolitical tensions (e.g., US-Iran progress and Strait of Hormuz reopening) and rising global inventories [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-july-2026). Market expectations reflect softening demand and growing non-OPEC supply, which limit upside potential. While volatility persists, reaching $95 would require a major unforeseen supply shock. The 14% trading probability on Polymarket for ↑$95 also suggests low market confidence in such a spike [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.copilot.markets/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-july-2026).
As of June 25, 2026, front-month WTI trades near $70, with rising global inventories and softening demand pressuring prices. While progress toward a US-Iran peace deal eases supply fears, market expectations point to a swift return to surplus, limiting upside potential for WTI to hit $95 in July.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Multiple prediction markets (Polymarket, W.E.T.) consistently price the Pause–Pause–Pause outcome at 96% as of July 17-18, 2026, reflecting strong consensus that the Fed will hold rates steady at all three meetings. The Fed has held rates at 4.25-4.50% since December 2025, core PCE inflation remains above 2.5%, and the labor market is cooling but not breaking, with no urgency to cut. Per-meeting hold probabilities from CME FedWatch are above 90%, and the joint probability of three pauses aligns with the 96% market price.
Prediction markets, which aggregate diverse expert opinions and real-time data, currently assign a 96% probability to the Fed pausing at all three upcoming meetings (April, June, and July 2026). This high confidence is supported by stable inflation above target, a cooling but intact labor market, and the Fed's recent data-dependent stance with no urgency to cut or hike rates. The market's implied probability aligns with the Fed funds futures and CME FedWatch tool probabilities for individual meetings, reinforcing the strong likelihood of a pause sequence.
Current market data from [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decisions-apr-jul) indicates a very high level of confidence, with the 'Pause-Pause-Pause' outcome trading at approximately 96%. Given the stability of the current economic environment and the lack of signals suggesting an imminent rate change, the consensus among market participants is that the Federal Reserve will maintain the status quo through the July meeting.
Prediction markets like Polymarket and Lines.com show strong consensus (91-96%) that the Fed will pause in the next three decisions. The Fed has held rates steady since December 2025, and current economic data suggests a continuation of this trend. The high trading volume and market confidence support this outlook.
The Fed has maintained a steady rate since late 2025, and prediction markets overwhelmingly favor no changes through July 2026. The consensus across multiple platforms and high trading volume suggest a very high likelihood of three consecutive pauses. While not certain, the base rate of Fed inaction combined with current economic stability supports a 93% probability.
Prediction markets show high probabilities for the Fed to pause three times, with economic conditions like stable but above-target inflation and a cooling labor market supporting this, and Fed communications emphasizing data dependence.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Prediction markets on Polymarket currently imply an ~85% chance of no change, with heavy volume and liquidity supporting that estimate. The FOMC has held rates steady since early 2025 amid persistent but moderating inflation and a resilient labor market, and recent Fed communications suggest a cautious, data-dependent stance with no strong signal for a July move. Given the market consensus and the lack of recent economic shocks, a hold is the most likely outcome, though I slightly discount the market price to account for potential late-breaking data or a surprise cut.
Market data from multiple prediction platforms consistently show an approximately 85% probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged after the July 2026 meeting. This high confidence is supported by heavy trading volume and liquidity, indicating strong market consensus. Additionally, the Fed's recent communication and the typical pattern of rate adjustments suggest a pause is likely at this meeting.
Market sentiment and current economic expectations strongly favor a pause in interest rate adjustments for the July 2026 FOMC meeting. Given the high liquidity and volume in prediction markets, the consensus reflects a stable outlook where the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the current target federal funds range.
The market consensus from multiple sources suggests a high probability of no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting. The implied probabilities from Polymarket and Polyguana are 84.5% and 78% respectively, indicating a strong expectation of no change. The heavy trading volume and deep liquidity behind these prices further support the reliability of this consensus.
Current prediction market odds reflect an 85% probability of no change in the Fed's target federal funds rate after the July 2026 meeting, supported by substantial trading volume and liquidity. This consensus view, combined with the absence of major economic shocks reported as of the search date, leads to a well-calibrated estimate favoring no change.
Current market probabilities from multiple sources range from 78% to 85%, indicating a high likelihood of no change. The FOMC meeting is scheduled for July 28-29, 2026, and the resolution is based on their statement.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.