โ† Back to rounds

Round Yd2I3WSq

completed

Oct 2, 2026 ยท 12 markets ยท Cohort 2026-W40

Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?
Resolved
Crowd at forecast: 17%
๐Ÿ”ฎDeepSeek V4 Flash
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐Ÿง GPT-4.1 Mini
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐Ÿ’ŽGemini 3.1 Flash Lite
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐ŸŒ€Mistral Small 3.2
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐ŸฒQwen3 235B
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐ŸŒฑSeed 1.6 Flash
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐ŸŽฏEnsemble
no forecast

no valid member forecasts

โšกMarket ร— Models
no forecast

no valid member forecasts

๐Ÿ‘ฅThe Crowdbaseline
17%market price
Resolved: NO
Brier: 0.027
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
Open
Crowd at forecast: 6%
๐Ÿ”ฎDeepSeek V4 Flash
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐Ÿง GPT-4.1 Mini
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐Ÿ’ŽGemini 3.1 Flash Lite
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐ŸŒ€Mistral Small 3.2
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐ŸฒQwen3 235B
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐ŸŒฑSeed 1.6 Flash
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐ŸŽฏEnsemble
no forecast

no valid member forecasts

โšกMarket ร— Models
no forecast

no valid member forecasts

๐Ÿ‘ฅThe Crowdbaseline
6%market price
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?
Resolved
Crowd at forecast: 10%
๐Ÿ”ฎDeepSeek V4 Flash
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐Ÿง GPT-4.1 Mini
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐Ÿ’ŽGemini 3.1 Flash Lite
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐ŸŒ€Mistral Small 3.2
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐ŸฒQwen3 235B
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐ŸŒฑSeed 1.6 Flash
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐ŸŽฏEnsemble
no forecast

no valid member forecasts

โšกMarket ร— Models
no forecast

no valid member forecasts

๐Ÿ‘ฅThe Crowdbaseline
10%market price
Resolved: NO
Brier: 0.009
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
Resolved
Crowd at forecast: 25%
๐Ÿ”ฎDeepSeek V4 Flash
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐Ÿง GPT-4.1 Mini
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐Ÿ’ŽGemini 3.1 Flash Lite
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐ŸŒ€Mistral Small 3.2
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐ŸฒQwen3 235B
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐ŸŒฑSeed 1.6 Flash
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐ŸŽฏEnsemble
no forecast

no valid member forecasts

โšกMarket ร— Models
no forecast

no valid member forecasts

๐Ÿ‘ฅThe Crowdbaseline
25%market price
Resolved: NO
Brier: 0.063
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
Resolved
Crowd at forecast: 44%
๐Ÿ”ฎDeepSeek V4 Flash
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐Ÿง GPT-4.1 Mini
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐Ÿ’ŽGemini 3.1 Flash Lite
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐ŸŒ€Mistral Small 3.2
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐ŸฒQwen3 235B
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐ŸŒฑSeed 1.6 Flash
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐ŸŽฏEnsemble
no forecast

no valid member forecasts

โšกMarket ร— Models
no forecast

no valid member forecasts

๐Ÿ‘ฅThe Crowdbaseline
44%market price
Resolved: NO
Brier: 0.189
Will Flรกvio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Resolved
Crowd at forecast: 61%
๐Ÿ”ฎDeepSeek V4 Flash
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐Ÿง GPT-4.1 Mini
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐Ÿ’ŽGemini 3.1 Flash Lite
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐ŸŒ€Mistral Small 3.2
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐ŸฒQwen3 235B
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐ŸŒฑSeed 1.6 Flash
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐ŸŽฏEnsemble
no forecast

no valid member forecasts

โšกMarket ร— Models
no forecast

no valid member forecasts

๐Ÿ‘ฅThe Crowdbaseline
61%market price
Resolved: NO
Brier: 0.373
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
Resolved
Crowd at forecast: 64%
๐Ÿ”ฎDeepSeek V4 Flash
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐Ÿง GPT-4.1 Mini
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐Ÿ’ŽGemini 3.1 Flash Lite
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐ŸŒ€Mistral Small 3.2
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐ŸฒQwen3 235B
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐ŸŒฑSeed 1.6 Flash
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐ŸŽฏEnsemble
no forecast

no valid member forecasts

โšกMarket ร— Models
no forecast

no valid member forecasts

๐Ÿ‘ฅThe Crowdbaseline
64%market price
Resolved: YES
Brier: 0.128
Will Luiz Inรกcio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Resolved
Crowd at forecast: 42%
๐Ÿ”ฎDeepSeek V4 Flash
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐Ÿง GPT-4.1 Mini
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐Ÿ’ŽGemini 3.1 Flash Lite
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐ŸŒ€Mistral Small 3.2
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐ŸฒQwen3 235B
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐ŸŒฑSeed 1.6 Flash
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐ŸŽฏEnsemble
no forecast

no valid member forecasts

โšกMarket ร— Models
no forecast

no valid member forecasts

๐Ÿ‘ฅThe Crowdbaseline
42%market price
Resolved: YES
Brier: 0.342
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Resolved
Crowd at forecast: 60%
๐Ÿ”ฎDeepSeek V4 Flash
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐Ÿง GPT-4.1 Mini
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐Ÿ’ŽGemini 3.1 Flash Lite
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐ŸŒ€Mistral Small 3.2
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐ŸฒQwen3 235B
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐ŸŒฑSeed 1.6 Flash
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐ŸŽฏEnsemble
no forecast

no valid member forecasts

โšกMarket ร— Models
no forecast

no valid member forecasts

๐Ÿ‘ฅThe Crowdbaseline
60%market price
Resolved: NO
Brier: 0.354
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Resolved
Crowd at forecast: 36%
๐Ÿ”ฎDeepSeek V4 Flash
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐Ÿง GPT-4.1 Mini
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐Ÿ’ŽGemini 3.1 Flash Lite
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐ŸŒ€Mistral Small 3.2
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐ŸฒQwen3 235B
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐ŸŒฑSeed 1.6 Flash
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐ŸŽฏEnsemble
no forecast

no valid member forecasts

โšกMarket ร— Models
no forecast

no valid member forecasts

๐Ÿ‘ฅThe Crowdbaseline
36%market price
Resolved: NO
Brier: 0.126
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Resolved
Crowd at forecast: 36%
๐Ÿ”ฎDeepSeek V4 Flash
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐Ÿง GPT-4.1 Mini
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐Ÿ’ŽGemini 3.1 Flash Lite
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐ŸŒ€Mistral Small 3.2
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐ŸฒQwen3 235B
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐ŸŒฑSeed 1.6 Flash
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐ŸŽฏEnsemble
no forecast

no valid member forecasts

โšกMarket ร— Models
no forecast

no valid member forecasts

๐Ÿ‘ฅThe Crowdbaseline
36%market price
Resolved: NO
Brier: 0.126
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
Resolved
Crowd at forecast: 75%
๐Ÿ”ฎDeepSeek V4 Flash
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐Ÿง GPT-4.1 Mini
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐Ÿ’ŽGemini 3.1 Flash Lite
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐ŸŒ€Mistral Small 3.2
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐ŸฒQwen3 235B
no forecast

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๐ŸŒฑSeed 1.6 Flash
no forecast

HTTP 403: {"error":{"message":"Key limit exceeded (total limit). Manage it using https://openrouter.ai/workspaces/default/keys/55c4a312608682af201fdcd611ef8c55d323c2b9f4a42e58c5e23fd0bfae99b8","code":403}}

๐ŸŽฏEnsemble
no forecast

no valid member forecasts

โšกMarket ร— Models
no forecast

no valid member forecasts

๐Ÿ‘ฅThe Crowdbaseline
75%market price
Resolved: YES
Brier: 0.065