The Polymarket price is around 8-14% as of July 12, 2026, reflecting a low but non-zero probability. Iran has a history of sudden airspace closures (e.g., Jan 2026, Feb 2026) due to geopolitical tensions, but such events are rare and unpredictable. With only ~3 days left until the deadline, the base rate of a general closure in any given 3-day window is very low, and no major escalation or official notice has been reported recently. I adjust slightly above the market price to account for the possibility of a surprise closure, but keep it low given the short remaining time.
Recent market data from Polymarket shows an 8% implied probability for a full Iranian airspace closure by July 15, 2026. Given Iran's history of limited or partial closures rather than full closures, and the lack of current credible reports indicating an imminent full closure, the probability remains low. The market's heavy trading volume and reliance on official Iranian aviation sources support this estimate.
The probability of a full, general closure of Iranian airspace within the next few days is low, as there are no current reports of major military escalations or specific directives from Iranian aviation authorities indicating such a move. Market sentiment on [orrery.me](https://orrery.me/markets/iran-full-airspace-closure-by-july-15-20260625195254149) reflects this low expectation, and historical precedents for such closures are typically tied to significant, immediate geopolitical crises which are not currently manifesting.
The current Polymarket probability is 8%, which suggests low market confidence. Historical data shows that Iran has closed its airspace twice in 2026, but these were specific events. There is no recent news indicating an imminent closure by July 15, 2026. The base rate for such closures is low, and without specific evidence, the probability remains modest.
Iran has previously implemented full airspace closures during periods of heightened geopolitical tension, such as in January and February 2026 [reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/) and [iranintl.com](https://www.iranintl.com/en/202602289115). However, as of July 12, 2026, there are no active reports indicating an imminent general closure. The Polymarket implied probability is around 8–14% [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-full-airspace-closure-byptptpt-20260625195253028), reflecting low but non-zero expectations. Given the base rate of past closures and current absence of escalation indicators, an independent assessment places the probability slightly above the market consensus but still low.
As of July 12, 2026, Polymarket prices the event at 8% implied probability, considering the resolution criteria and current context.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Prediction markets currently price this at 2-6% (Polyguana 6%, Polymarket 4%, Verdict 2.1%), reflecting very low confidence. Mojtaba Khamenei has made only one known public appearance since becoming Supreme Leader in March 2026, and that was a brief, masked sighting at his father's funeral. With only 3 days remaining until the July 15 deadline and no recent credible sightings or broadcasts, the probability remains very low, though not zero due to the possibility of a sudden digital appearance.
Mojtaba Khamenei, as the son of Iran's Supreme Leader, is known to maintain a low public profile, with very few verified public appearances. There is no recent evidence or reports indicating he will be publicly visible by July 15, 2026. Given the secretive nature of his appearances and the lack of any current public sightings, the probability of a verified public image or video emerging by that date is low but not impossible.
Given that today is July 12, 2026, there are only three days remaining until the July 15 deadline. Prediction markets like [polyguana.com](https://polyguana.com/market/2658294) and [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/mojtaba-khamenei-public-appearance-by) consistently price this event at a very low probability, reflecting the high security risks and the secretive nature of the Iranian leadership's current posture.
Mojtaba Khamenei is known for maintaining a low public profile, similar to his father, the current Supreme Leader of Iran. There are no recent reports or evidence suggesting he will appear in public by July 15. Historical behavior and the lack of specific events or announcements pointing to a public appearance suggest a low probability.
Recent reports indicate Mojtaba Khamenei made a public appearance at his father's funeral, marking his first public sighting as Supreme Leader [cryptobriefing.com](https://cryptobriefing.com/mojtaba-khamenei-makes-first-public-appearance-as-irans-supreme-leader/). This has increased market expectations, with current odds ranging from 6% to 7% for a public appearance by July 15, 2026 [polyguana.com](https://polyguana.com/market/2658294), [cryptobriefing.com](https://cryptobriefing.com/mojtaba-khamenei-makes-first-public-appearance-as-irans-supreme-leader/). However, his historically low public profile and security concerns continue to limit the likelihood of further appearances.
Based on available market data, the probability of Mojtaba Khamenei being seen in public by July 15 is reflected in the odds from relevant markets.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
timeout after 30000ms
Current market data and trading activity indicate an extremely low probability that the Strait of Hormuz traffic will return to normal levels (7-day moving average of 60 or more transit calls) by July 15, 2026. The Polymarket crowd consensus is effectively 0%, reflecting strong skepticism likely due to ongoing disruptions or geopolitical tensions affecting shipping traffic. Given the lack of contrary evidence and the market's deep liquidity, a near-zero probability is justified, though a small chance remains due to potential unforeseen developments.
The current market data and consensus from [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-15) indicate that the probability of shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz returning to the specified threshold of 60 transit calls (7-day moving average) by July 15, 2026, is extremely low. Given the proximity to the resolution date and the lack of evidence suggesting a rapid recovery in transit volumes, it is highly probable that the threshold will not be met.
The Polymarket prediction market shows a 1% chance of the Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by July 15, 2026, based on the 7-day moving average of transit calls. This low probability is likely due to recent disruptions or ongoing issues in the region that have not been resolved. The market's collective assessment reflects a strong consensus that normal traffic levels will not be achieved by the specified date.
The Polymarket crowd, backed by significant trading volume, assigns only a 1% probability to the Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by July 15, 2026, based on IMF Portwatch data. This reflects a strong consensus that geopolitical or operational disruptions are likely to persist, preventing a return to baseline traffic levels of 60+ transits on a 7-day average.
The Polymarket crowd currently assigns a 1% probability to the event, and the resolution depends on specific transit call data from IMF Portwatch.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
The current 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transit calls is likely far below 60, and with only 19 days left until July 31, a sustained recovery to the 60 threshold is improbable. Prediction markets, which aggregate trader information, consistently price this event around 4.5–5%, indicating a very low probability. Without any news of a rapid resolution to ongoing disruptions, I align with that market estimate.
Current prediction markets, which aggregate diverse information and trader sentiment, assign only about a 5% chance that Strait of Hormuz traffic will return to normal levels (7-day average of 60 or more transit calls) by July 31, 2026. This low probability reflects ongoing geopolitical tensions, disruptions, and insurance costs that continue to suppress traffic through the strait. Given the lack of strong evidence for a rapid normalization and the market consensus, a 5% probability is appropriate.
The current market sentiment and available data suggest a very low probability of traffic returning to the specified threshold by the end of July 2026. Given the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the region, it is highly unlikely that shipping volumes will recover to the required 7-day moving average of 60 transit calls within the remaining timeframe.
The current crowd-sourced probability on Polymarket is 5% for "Yes" [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31). However, considering the potential for geopolitical tensions to ease and the historical traffic patterns, I adjust the probability slightly upwards. The key factors include ongoing Iran-U.S. tensions, naval patrols, and insurance costs affecting shipping routes.
The current Polymarket odds reflect a 5% chance that IMF Portwatch will report a 7-day moving average of 60 or more transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026 [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31). This low probability likely accounts for ongoing geopolitical tensions, naval disruptions, and rerouting of shipping due to risk avoidance. The market is well-specified and tied directly to verifiable data from IMF Portwatch, making it a reliable aggregation of informed trader expectations.
The Polymarket crowd currently assigns a 5% probability to the event, based on their trading activity.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
The June 14 MOU has effectively collapsed, as evidenced by Iran's July 12 Hormuz closure and the US launching over 300 strikes on Iranian targets. The conflict has escalated dramatically, with Iran using BeiDou-guided missiles to strike US bases across four countries. No credible reports suggest active negotiations for a final nuclear deal; instead, the situation is one of open warfare. The probability of a signed final deal by August 18 is extremely low, likely around 2%.
While the US and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding on June 14, 2026, initiating a 60-day negotiation period toward a final nuclear deal, recent developments indicate ongoing hostilities and strategic tensions, including Iran's expanded missile strikes and closure of the Strait of Hormuz. These military escalations and the depletion of US missile interceptors suggest a challenging environment for diplomatic progress. However, the existence of the formal negotiation window and the US release of the 14-point agreement text provide some basis for a possible deal by August 18, though the probability remains below even odds given the current conflict dynamics.
The diplomatic environment has collapsed following the IRGC's massive, multi-state missile and drone strikes on July 12, 2026, which explicitly targeted US military infrastructure and effectively nullified the June 17 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding. With the Strait of Hormuz closed, US interceptor stockpiles at critical levels, and active kinetic warfare occurring between the two nations, the prospect of finalizing a nuclear deal by August 18 is virtually non-existent.
The current escalation in the US-Iran conflict, with Iran launching widespread attacks and the US responding with strikes, suggests a highly adversarial environment. The recent closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the strategic use of BeiDou-guided missiles indicate a significant escalation rather than a diplomatic resolution. The 60-day period for negotiations has not shown any concrete progress towards a final deal, and the ongoing military engagements reduce the likelihood of a diplomatic breakthrough by August 18, 2026.
The collapse of the June 17 MoU and Iran's large-scale military strikes on July 12, 2026, against US interests in the Gulf indicate a complete breakdown in diplomacy. With active hostilities ongoing and no signs of renewed negotiations, the probability of a final nuclear deal by August 18, 2026, is extremely low.
There is a 60-day negotiation period from June 14, 2026, but no current information on deal progress from the web search. The need for a qualifying written instrument with specific nuclear obligations adds uncertainty.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Based on Polymarket odds of 46% and historical Bitcoin volatility, a 10%+ monthly decline is common but not certain. Adjusting slightly downward from market consensus to account for the passage of time without a dip, I estimate a 40% chance.
Market data from Polymarket indicates a 25.5% probability that Bitcoin will dip to $57,500 or lower on Binance during July 2026. Given the volatility of Bitcoin and the specific resolution criteria, this market-based probability is a strong indicator. There is no contradictory evidence suggesting a significantly higher or lower chance, so the estimate aligns closely with market consensus.
Current market sentiment on prediction platforms like [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-dip-to-57pt5k-in-july-2026) and [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-july-2026) suggests a probability range between 25% and 46% for Bitcoin hitting $57,500 in July. Given that Bitcoin has already shown volatility with a high likelihood of dipping to $62,500 as noted in [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-dip-to-62pt5k-in-july-2026), a 35% estimate accounts for the potential for further downward pressure while acknowledging the uncertainty of market volatility.
The current market odds on Polymarket indicate a 25.5% probability that Bitcoin will dip to $57,500 in July 2026. This is consistent with the historical volatility and recent market trends observed in similar prediction markets.
Market-implied probabilities from Polymarket hover around 25.5–26%, reflecting crowd-sourced expectations. Adjusting slightly upward from the lower June probability (54.1%) to July accounts for potential fading momentum, leading to an independent estimate of 26%. This aligns with current trading odds and known resolution criteria on Binance data.
Polymarket currently prices the probability of Bitcoin dipping to $57,500 in July at 25.5% based on Binance 1-minute candle data.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
The Polymarket prediction market for Bitcoin reaching $70,000 in July 2026 is currently trading at 24.5% [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-reach-70k-in-july-2026), which serves as a strong aggregated signal from informed traders. The market for $65,000 is at 83.5%, indicating high confidence in a move above that level, but $70,000 requires an additional ~10% gain from current prices near $63,622 [awebanalysis.com](https://awebanalysis.com/en/prediction-markets/will-bitcoin-reach-70000-in-june-2026-from-june-2/). Historical base rates for such a move in a 10-day window are around 7.8%, but the full month of July provides more time, and the market probability of ~24% reflects a reasonable adjustment for the longer horizon and current bullish sentiment.
Market data from Polymarket indicates a 24.5% probability that Bitcoin will reach $70,000 on Binance's BTC/USDT pair during July 2026. This reflects moderate optimism given current trends and volatility, but the higher probabilities for lower price targets and much lower probabilities for higher targets suggest $70,000 is a challenging but plausible level.
Market data from [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-reach-70k-in-july-2026) indicates a 24.5% probability for Bitcoin reaching $70,000 in July 2026. This aligns with the broader distribution of market expectations, where lower thresholds like $67,500 have higher probabilities (52.5%) and higher thresholds like $77,500 have very low probabilities (1.9%), suggesting $70,000 is currently viewed as an unlikely but plausible upside target.
The market consensus on Polymarket suggests a 24.5% probability that Bitcoin will reach $70,000 in July 2026. This is supported by the fact that a lower target of $67,500 has a 52.5% probability, indicating that $70,000 is a more challenging but plausible target. The higher target of $77,500 has only a 1.9% probability, suggesting that $70,000 is a reasonable midpoint estimate.
As of July 12, 2026, Bitcoin is trading around $63,600, and needs a roughly 10% increase to reach $70,000. Historical volatility suggests such moves are possible but not highly probable within a single month. Prediction markets on Polymarket currently price the chance at 24.5% [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-reach-70k-in-july-2026), aligning with recent trends and market efficiency metrics [awebanalysis.com](https://awebanalysis.com/en/prediction-markets/will-bitcoin-reach-70000-in-june-2026-from-june-2/). I adjust slightly upward for potential macro catalysts, but remain close to market consensus given its liquidity and information aggregation.
Polymarket currently prices the probability of Bitcoin reaching $70,000 in July 2026 at 24.5%.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
The market-implied probability of 30% for WTI hitting $80 in July is a useful baseline, but I lower it slightly to 28% to reflect that the remaining time and current price level make a sustained rally to $80 somewhat less likely without a clear catalyst. The base rate of hitting a price 10% above current levels within a month, given typical volatility, is around 20-25%, aligning with my estimate.
Current prediction markets show a 30% chance that WTI Crude Oil will hit $80 in July 2026, indicating moderate market skepticism about reaching this price. Given historical volatility and current market trends, while $80 is possible, it is not the most likely outcome. The leading market prediction is $70 at 100%, suggesting $80 is seen as an upside but less probable target.
Market data from [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-july-2026) indicates that while $70 is considered highly likely, the probability of WTI Crude Oil hitting $80 in July 2026 is currently estimated at approximately 30%. This reflects the market's assessment of current supply-demand dynamics and geopolitical factors influencing oil prices.
The current leading outcome on Polymarket is $70 at 100%, with $80 at 30%. This suggests a moderate probability that WTI Crude Oil will hit $80 in July 2026. The market's collective view, as reflected in the odds, indicates a significant chance but not a certainty.
unparseable forecast JSON
The Polymarket prediction market shows the '↑ $80' outcome has a 30% probability as of the search date.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
As of mid-July 2026, WTI crude oil is trading around $70-$80, and the Polymarket consensus for hitting $95 in July is only 2%. The global oil market faces headwinds from potential economic slowdown and ample supply, making a spike to $95 within the month highly unlikely. Base rates for such large intra-month moves are low, and current fundamentals do not support a sudden surge to that level.
Current prediction markets show a very low probability (around 2%) that WTI Crude Oil will hit $95 in July 2026. The market consensus strongly favors lower price points, with the highest confidence around $70. Given typical volatility and current market sentiment, a spike to $95 is unlikely but not impossible.
Current market data from [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-july-2026) indicates that the probability of WTI Crude Oil reaching $95 in July 2026 is extremely low, estimated at approximately 2%. Given that WTI prices have been trading significantly below this threshold, a move to $95 would require a major, unforeseen geopolitical or supply-side shock, which is not currently priced into the futures market.
The current leading outcome for WTI Crude Oil (WTI) in July 2026 is $70 at 100%, with the next closest outcome being $80 at 30%. The probability of WTI hitting $95 is significantly lower, at 4% [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-july-2026). This suggests that the market collectively assigns a very low chance to WTI reaching $95 in July 2026.
The low market-implied probability, combined with the substantial price increase required and lack of catalysts, makes a $95 high in July 2026 unlikely. Adjusting for base rates and market efficiency, the true probability is slightly above the current trading level but still very low.
Based on the provided market information, the probability of WTI Crude Oil hitting $95 in July 2026 is indicated by the market odds of 4%.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
The market consensus from Polymarket and predictionninja is 65% that WTI will hit a low of $65 in July 2026. With the current price likely around $70 and about 13 trading days remaining, a $5 decline is within normal monthly volatility. No strong evidence suggests a lower probability, so I adopt the market estimate as my independent forecast.
Current market data from prediction platforms like Polymarket and PredictionNinja indicate a roughly 65% probability that WTI Crude Oil will hit a low of $65 in July 2026. This reflects market consensus and trading activity, considering factors such as current oil price trends, geopolitical influences, and supply-demand dynamics. Given the volatility of oil prices and the active trading environment, a 65% chance is a reasonable estimate.
The market consensus on prediction platforms like [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-july-2026) and [predictionninja.com](https://predictionninja.com/market/will-wti-dip-to-65-in-july-2026) currently reflects a 65% probability that WTI Crude Oil will touch $65 or lower during July 2026. Given the volatility inherent in energy markets and the specific resolution criteria—which triggers on any 1-minute candle hitting the target—the probability is significantly higher than a simple daily close analysis might suggest.
The market probability for WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hitting a low of $65 in July 2026 is currently at 65% according to PredictionNinja, which aggregates data from Polymarket. This suggests a significant likelihood based on market sentiment and trading activity. The key factors include the current market probability, trading volume, and liquidity, all of which indicate a substantial level of confidence in this outcome.
The current trading probability on Polymarket is 65%, indicating substantial belief in a drop to $65 [predictionninja.com](https://predictionninja.com/market/will-wti-dip-to-65-in-july-2026). While future oil prices depend on unpredictable geopolitical and economic factors, the market's liquidity and volume suggest this probability is well-informed. I align with the consensus view due to lack of contradictory evidence.
The current market probability is 65%, and there's no significant new information to alter this outlook.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
The U.S. recently lifted its blockade on June 18 as part of a diplomatic MOU, and the July 31 deadline falls inside a 60-day negotiation window. No official statements since then suggest an imminent re-imposition, and the diplomatic track remains active. While tensions could escalate, the base rate for such a rapid reversal is low, and prediction market odds around 38% appear inflated by recent volatility rather than new evidence of an actual announcement.
Current market data from Polymarket prices the probability of a US blockade announcement on Iran by July 31 at 39%, reflecting moderate but not high likelihood. Recent diplomatic developments, including a June 17 memorandum of understanding that suspended hostilities and lifted the prior blockade, suggest a current de-escalation trend. However, the situation remains volatile with ongoing nuclear talks and regional tensions that could prompt a blockade announcement if negotiations fail or incidents occur.
Following the June 17 memorandum of understanding and the subsequent lifting of the naval blockade on June 18, the current diplomatic environment is focused on de-escalation and nuclear negotiations. While market sentiment has fluctuated, there is no current evidence of a breakdown in these talks that would necessitate a return to a blockade policy before the July 31 deadline. The probability reflects the risk of a sudden diplomatic collapse, but the current trend favors continued adherence to the recent agreement.
The recent diplomatic progress between the US and Iran, including the lifting of the US naval blockade on June 18 and the ongoing 60-day window for further talks, suggests a current focus on de-escalation. The market probabilities from Polymarket and Orrery, which are around 22-39%, reflect a low to moderate likelihood of a blockade announcement. The key factors include the recent easing of tensions, the ongoing diplomatic process, and the potential for further de-escalation or, conversely, a breakdown in negotiations that could lead to a blockade.
Recent developments indicate a de-escalation in US-Iran tensions, including a June 17 memorandum of understanding that suspended hostilities and led to the formal lifting of the U.S. naval blockade on June 18 [imarket.com](https://hkimarket.com/event/us-announces-blockade-on-iran-byptptpt-20260622191049039/will-the-us-announce-a-blockade-on-iran-by-july-31-20260622191116912). Ongoing diplomatic talks and commitments to nuclear inspections further reduce the likelihood of a sudden blockade announcement. While breakdowns in negotiations or military incidents could shift the situation, no current evidence suggests an imminent policy reversal. Market odds around 22-39% likely overestimate the probability due to speculative trading.
Based on web search results, Polymarket currently prices the probability of the US announcing a blockade on Iran by July 31 at 39%.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Prediction market odds from multiple platforms (Polymarket, PredictionGenius, Polyguana) consistently show an 80-85% chance of no change, reflecting broad trader consensus. The FOMC historically holds rates at most meetings, current inflation and labor data do not strongly demand a hike or cut, and no major economic shock is anticipated. The 15-20% tail risk of a 25 bps hike is the only plausible alternative, yielding a base rate of ~82% for a hold.
Prediction markets currently assign about an 80% probability to no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting, reflecting the consensus that the Federal Reserve is likely to hold rates steady given typical FOMC behavior and current economic signals. The market odds are supported by the fact that the Fed often leaves rates unchanged in many meetings, and the 25 bps hike is the main alternative scenario priced at around 20%.
The Federal Reserve typically maintains interest rates at most meetings, making 'no change' the structural baseline. Current market sentiment across major prediction platforms like [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-july-181) and [predictiongenius.io](https://predictiongenius.io/markets/fed-rate-decision-jul-2026) consistently assigns approximately 80% probability to a hold, reflecting the consensus that the FOMC is unlikely to deviate from its current policy path without significant economic shocks.
Prediction markets consistently show a high probability (80-85%) of no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting. The base rate for no change at FOMC meetings is historically high, and current economic indicators do not suggest an imminent need for a rate change.
The consensus across multiple prediction markets suggests a high likelihood of no change in the federal funds rate after the July 2026 FOMC meeting. Polymarket shows an 80% probability for 'No change' [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-july-181), PredictionNinja reports 85% [predictionninja.com](https://predictionninja.com/market/will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-july-2026-meeting), and Polyguana indicates 78% [polyguana.com](https://polyguana.com/market/1654958). These reflect aggregated trader expectations based on current economic indicators, Fed guidance, and inflation trends. Base rates also favor inaction, as the FOMC typically maintains rates steady at most meetings unless strong data warrants a shift.
Prediction markets show high implied probabilities of no change, with various sources indicating around 78-85%.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.