The ceasefire framework established by the June Islamabad Memorandum was explicitly declared ended on July 8, 2026, following Iranian strikes on commercial vessels and subsequent U.S. military operations against Iran. While Israel has not yet directly struck Iranian territory in the latest round, the overall context of active hostilities between the U.S. and Iran, stalled negotiations, and Israel's high alert status make it unlikely that a ceasefire remains in effect through July 31. The base rate for such ceasefires holding after a formal declaration of termination is very low, and the current evidence points to ongoing conflict rather than a sustained truce.
Recent escalations between Israel and Iran, including strikes on commercial vessels and retaliatory military actions, have increased tensions and reduced the likelihood of a sustained ceasefire. However, no direct air or surface-to-surface missile strikes impacting the other's terrestrial territory have been reported recently, and both sides have shown some restraint, with Israel avoiding direct re-engagement of Iranian territory. The absence of scheduled diplomatic milestones and ongoing mutual accusations suggest the ceasefire is fragile but still holding through July 31.
While tensions remain high and recent regional escalations have occurred, the specific definition of a 'qualifying military action'—which excludes intercepted munitions, minor strikes, and naval/artillery engagements—provides a significant buffer for the ceasefire status. With only a few days remaining until July 31, the likelihood of a major, direct, and unintercepted air or surface-to-surface missile strike on terrestrial territory is lower than the risk of continued lower-level skirmishes that do not trigger the 'No' condition.
Recent escalations in the Strait of Hormuz and the breakdown of the June Islamabad Memorandum truce indicate a high likelihood of further military exchanges. Both Israel and Iran have exchanged strikes, and Israel has maintained high alert status, signaling readiness for independent action. Negotiations on nuclear issues and a permanent settlement remain stalled, with no scheduled diplomatic milestones in the immediate term. These factors suggest a significant risk of a qualifying military action occurring before July 31.
As of July 25, 2026, the June Islamabad Memorandum truce has ended, with both the U.S. and Iran exchanging military strikes, and Israel maintaining high alert and readiness for action [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt-20260716224448963). Although Israel has not directly re-engaged Iranian territory in the latest exchanges, U.S. operations in Iran and Iranian missile responses indicate active hostilities, breaking the ceasefire framework. Given that the truce is officially declared over and military actions have resumed, the ceasefire cannot be considered in effect through July 31.
Recent escalations including strikes on commercial vessels, U.S. and Iranian responses, and stalled negotiations reduce the likelihood of a ceasefire continuing through July 31.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Based on current Polymarket odds (~14-19%) and the short time remaining until August 31, 2026, the probability of the 7-day moving average of transit calls reaching 60 is low. Geopolitical risks and the recent disruption in the Strait of Hormuz make a rapid normalization unlikely. I estimate a 15% chance, consistent with market pricing and the difficulty of achieving the threshold in the remaining weeks.
Current market data from multiple prediction platforms indicates a low probability (around 14%) that the Strait of Hormuz traffic will return to normal levels (7-day average of 60 or more ship transits) by August 31, 2026. This reflects ongoing geopolitical tensions and disruptions affecting shipping traffic in the region, with no strong signs of imminent normalization.
Current market sentiment and available data suggest a low probability of shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz returning to the specified threshold of 60 daily transits by the end of August 2026. Given the ongoing geopolitical tensions and the persistent nature of the disruptions, a rapid recovery to pre-disruption levels within the next few weeks is unlikely.
The market odds from Polymarket and Marketss suggest a low probability of the event occurring, with implied probabilities around 14-19%. Given the lack of specific evidence of a significant improvement in transit calls and the base rate implied by the market, the probability is adjusted to reflect a cautious estimate.
The current market-implied probabilities from prediction platforms such as Polymarket and Marketss range between 13% and 14.5%, reflecting aggregated trader expectations about the likelihood of Strait of Hormuz traffic reaching a 7-day moving average of 60 or more ship transits by August 31, 2026 [polymarket.copilot.markets](https://polymarket.copilot.markets/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-august-31-20260702154212320) [marketss.com](https://marketss.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-august-31-20260702154212320). These odds are based on real-time data from IMF Portwatch, the designated resolution source. Given the absence of major recent disruptions and the stability implied by current data, I align closely with the consensus implied probability.
Current market odds from Polymarket and Marketss indicate a low probability, with implied probabilities around 13-14.5%.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
With only 6 days remaining until the July 31 deadline, the 7-day moving average of transit calls is slow to change. Current data from IMF Portwatch likely shows arrivals well below the 60 threshold due to ongoing regional disruptions, and a surge large enough to lift the average above 60 in such a short window is highly improbable. Polymarket odds vary (0.7%–27%), but the lower figures better reflect the near-term difficulty, so I assign a 3% chance.
Current prediction markets, which aggregate diverse information and expert opinions, assign a very low probability (around 0.7% to 1.1%) to the Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal levels by July 31, 2026. Given the strategic and geopolitical complexities affecting the Strait, including ongoing regional tensions and potential disruptions, a rapid return to normal traffic levels is unlikely within this timeframe. Therefore, a probability close to 1% reflects the low likelihood of normalization by the deadline.
The market for this event has seen a significant decline in confidence, with current betting odds on platforms like Polymarket [polyinsider.io](https://polyinsider.io/en/markets/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31) and [pdata.world](https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/455867) hovering near 1%. Given the proximity to the July 31, 2026, deadline and the lack of evidence suggesting a sudden, sustained surge in shipping traffic to the required threshold of 60, it is highly improbable that the condition will be met.
The current situation in the Strait of Hormuz is highly volatile, with extremely low traffic and ongoing military conflicts. The 7-day moving average required for a 'Yes' resolution is far above the recent single-day counts, and the timeframe is too short for a significant recovery.
Current conditions—active hostilities, Iran's closure declaration, and extremely low transit numbers—make it nearly impossible for the 7-day moving average of ship transits to reach 60 by July 31. With only 15 days left and no immediate signs of de-escalation, recovery within the timeframe is highly improbable. The small remaining probability accounts for a potential sudden diplomatic resolution and rapid data update, though such a scenario is unlikely.
Current market odds from Polymarket and PolyInsider show very low probability of Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by July 31.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
The market currently trades at 19% on Polymarket, reflecting a low but non-zero probability of a 14-day ceasefire by July 31. Given ongoing US-Iran tensions and recent military actions, the base rate for such a sustained pause is low, but the specific definition excludes many minor actions and intercepts, slightly increasing the chance of a qualifying ceasefire period. Key factors include the absence of major US airstrikes or missile strikes on Iranian territory in the coming days, and the credibility of any reported actions.
Current prediction markets and available information indicate a low likelihood of a continuous 14-day period without qualifying US military actions against Iran by July 31, 2026. The geopolitical tensions remain high, and past patterns suggest intermittent strikes or military actions are likely to continue. The complexity of confirming qualifying actions and the strict criteria for the ceasefire also reduce the probability of a clean 14-day pause.
The market requires a continuous 14-day period without a qualifying US military strike on Iranian territory. Given the current geopolitical tensions and the specific definition of 'qualifying military action' which excludes many common forms of engagement, the likelihood of such a window occurring before the July 31 deadline is low, consistent with current market sentiment [orrery.me](https://orrery.me/markets/us-x-iran-effective-ceasfire-by-july-31-20260715194822045).
The market-implied probability on Polymarket is 15.5% as of the latest data, which aligns with the current geopolitical climate and recent trends in US-Iran relations. The low probability reflects the ongoing tensions and the likelihood of continued military actions.
Market-implied probabilities from prediction platforms such as Polymarket and CryptoSlate indicate a consensus around 15-16% for a 14-day ceasefire window occurring by July 31, 2026. These reflect aggregated trader expectations based on current geopolitical tensions and military activity. The lack of recent qualifying U.S. military actions against Iran (direct terrestrial impacts) increases the chance of such a pause, but ongoing regional tensions and potential for escalation keep the probability modest. I incorporate this as a base rate while adjusting slightly upward due to the narrow definition of 'qualifying action,' which excludes intercepted strikes and cyber/naval actions.
Market-implied probabilities from Orrery (19%), Polymarket (14.5%), and CryptoSlate (15.5%) are aggregated to estimate the chance of a US-Iran effective ceasefire by July 31.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
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Current prediction markets show a range of probabilities from about 24.5% to 59%, with some clustering around 37%. Given Bitcoin's historical volatility and the fact that $67,500 is a relatively high target compared to recent prices, the probability is moderate but not high. The month-long window increases the chance somewhat, but the target remains challenging based on current market sentiment and forecasts.
As of late July 2026, market sentiment on prediction platforms like Polymarket has shifted significantly downward, with implied probabilities dropping from over 50% to approximately 24% [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-reach-67pt5k-in-july-2026) [orrery.me](https://orrery.me/markets/will-bitcoin-reach-67pt5k-in-july-2026). With only a few days remaining in the month, the lack of upward momentum and the increased distance from the $67,500 target make it increasingly unlikely that Bitcoin will hit this threshold before the August 1st deadline.
The current market odds on Polymarket and Orrery suggest a probability between 37% and 59%. Given the recent downward trend in the market odds and the high volatility of Bitcoin prices, a balanced estimate around 45% seems reasonable. The key factors include the current market sentiment, historical price movements, and the remaining time in July for potential price spikes.
As of mid-July 2026, Bitcoin has not yet reached $67,500, and market-implied probabilities on Polymarket have declined to around 37% [orrery.me](https://orrery.me/markets/will-bitcoin-reach-67pt5k-in-july-2026), down from earlier highs. Price momentum appears weak, and while volatility could still trigger a spike, the lack of strong upward movement with limited time remaining reduces the likelihood. Base rates for Bitcoin hitting specific high targets in a short window, combined with current price action, suggest a slightly lower true probability.
As of July 13, 2026, Polymarket prices this event at 37% implied probability, considering the resolution criteria based on Binance 1-minute candles.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Prediction markets like Polymarket and Ominari currently price this event at roughly 22-26%, reflecting a consensus that a spike to $70k is possible but not probable. Given the short remaining time in July and the large gap from current prices, a 25% probability is a reasonable independent estimate, consistent with the market-implied odds and the historical frequency of such large moves.
Bitcoin is currently trading around $62,600 mid-July 2026, needing about a 12% rally to reach $70,000. Market-based probabilities from Polymarket and Manifold hover around 22-23%, reflecting moderate optimism but significant resistance near the mid-to-high $60,000 range. Given recent consolidation and geopolitical factors, a 23% chance is a calibrated estimate for BTC hitting $70,000 on Binance in July 2026.
As of July 25, 2026, there are only a few days remaining in the month. Given the current market sentiment and the fact that prediction markets like Polymarket are pricing this event at approximately 22.5%, it is unlikely that Bitcoin will experience the volatility required to reach the $70,000 threshold on the Binance BTC/USDT pair before the month concludes.
Bitcoin's current price and recent trends suggest a moderate likelihood of reaching $70,000 in July. The market is pricing a 22.5% probability, and Bitcoin would need to rally approximately 12% from its mid-month baseline to reach this target, overcoming resistance levels in the mid-to-high $60,000 range.
unparseable forecast JSON
Polymarket currently prices it at 22.5% and the resolution depends on a single 1-minute Binance candle reaching $70k.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
As of late July 2026, prediction markets on Polymarket and Orrery consistently price the chance of Bitcoin reaching $75,000 in July at about 2-3%. The market for $70,000 sits at ~22.5%, and for $77,500 at ~0.9%, indicating a steep drop in probability above $70k. With only about a week left in July and no major bullish catalyst evident, the implied probability of ~3% from these markets is a well-calibrated estimate.
Current prediction markets and crowd estimates place the probability of Bitcoin reaching $75,000 in July 2026 at about 3%, reflecting low market confidence in such a high price within the month. The resolution depends solely on Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle highs, and recent market trends and volatility do not strongly support a spike to $75,000 in this timeframe.
With only a few days remaining in July 2026, Bitcoin would need a significant and rapid price appreciation to reach the $75,000 threshold. Current market sentiment and prediction market data from [orrery.me](https://orrery.me/markets/will-bitcoin-reach-75k-in-july-2026) and [kresmion.com](https://kresmion.com/odds/will-bitcoin-reach-75k-in-july-2026) consistently price this outcome at approximately 3%, reflecting the low likelihood of such a move given the current trading range.
The current market odds on Polymarket are extremely low at around 3%, indicating a strong consensus that Bitcoin is unlikely to reach $75,000 in July. Additionally, the probability of Bitcoin reaching $70,000 is at 26.5%, and for $77,500, it is even lower at 1.9%. This suggests a very low likelihood of Bitcoin reaching $75,000 in the specified timeframe.
While prediction markets price the event at around 3%, historical volatility and typical monthly price swings for Bitcoin suggest a modest chance of a short-term spike above $75,000, even without a sustained breakout. Given that only one 1-minute candle on Binance is required, tail events or flash rallies make a 'Yes' outcome possible, though still unlikely. Adjusting upward from market price due to potential underpricing of volatility, but remaining cautious given current price trajectory.
Current market probabilities from Polymarket and Kresmion are around 2-3%, considering the resolution criteria based on Binance 1-minute candles.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Based on current market-implied probabilities from Polymarket (76-88%) and the strong fundamentals of NVIDIA's AI-driven growth, there is a high likelihood that NVIDIA will hold the largest market cap by July 31. The short time horizon and lack of disruptive events further support this estimate, though a small chance remains for a sudden reversal.
NVIDIA currently holds a commanding lead in AI accelerator technology, driving strong revenue growth and high valuation multiples. Market-implied probabilities from multiple sources indicate about an 85-89% chance of NVIDIA being the largest company by market cap on July 31, 2026. Competitors like Microsoft, Alphabet, and Broadcom have lower odds due to their secondary roles in AI and slower monetization cycles, while risks for others like Saudi Aramco and Tesla remain significant. Near-term catalysts such as Q2 earnings and regulatory developments could influence the outcome but are unlikely to overturn NVIDIA's entrenched position.
NVIDIA maintains a dominant position in the AI hardware market, with strong investor sentiment and sustained demand for its Blackwell architecture driving its valuation. While market volatility is always a risk, the current momentum and the short timeframe until the July 31 resolution date make it highly probable that NVIDIA will retain its lead over competitors like Microsoft and Apple.
NVIDIA's dominant position in AI accelerators and surging enterprise demand for GPUs continue to drive its market cap growth. The market-implied probability of NVIDIA remaining the largest company by market cap at end-July is around 85%, with competitors like Microsoft, Alphabet, and Broadcom trailing significantly. Key factors include Q2 earnings, Blackwell ramp updates, and regulatory shifts on AI exports.
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NVIDIA has a strong market position in AI accelerators driving revenue and valuation, with key factors supporting its lead.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Both leaders agreed on a phone call July 3 to meet soon, and Trump indicated a possible White House visit. However, as of July 14 no formal meeting was scheduled. With only 6 days left until the deadline, a meeting remains very likely but not certain, reflected by Polymarket prices around 91-94%. I estimate 92% probability.
Recent reports indicate that Trump and Netanyahu have agreed to meet soon, with discussions about a possible White House visit in early July 2026. Although no formal meeting has been scheduled as of mid-July, ongoing coordination on key policy issues and the high market probability (94%) suggest a strong likelihood of a meeting by July 31, 2026.
While there was initial speculation and reports of a potential meeting, recent credible reporting indicates that a planned trip by Netanyahu was cancelled following the postponement of Senator Lindsey Graham's funeral, and White House officials confirmed no meeting was formally scheduled. With the July 31 deadline only days away and no confirmed travel plans or official announcements of a summit, the likelihood of an in-person meeting occurring in this short timeframe is low.
While there have been indications of a potential meeting, including a phone call and discussions about a possible White House visit, no formal meeting has been scheduled as of the latest reports. The cancellation of Netanyahu's U.S. trip due to the postponement of Senator Lindsey Graham's funeral service suggests logistical challenges. However, the ongoing coordination on Iran policy and regional security issues increases the likelihood of a meeting occurring before July 31, 2026.
As of July 25, 2026, the market-implied probability on Polymarket is 94%, reflecting strong trader confidence in a meeting [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-meet-with-netanyahu-byptptpt-20260714195149520). Netanyahu and Trump spoke on July 3 and agreed to meet soon, with discussions focused on a U.S. summit [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-meet-with-netanyahu-byptptpt-20260714195149520). Although no formal schedule has been confirmed by U.S. officials as of July 14, coordination on Iran and regional security continues to drive momentum [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-meet-with-netanyahu-byptptpt-20260714195149520). The high market price, recent high-level communication, and diplomatic incentives support a very high likelihood of a meeting before the July 31 deadline.
They spoke by phone on July 3 and agreed to meet soon. Hebrew media reported Netanyahu seeking travel, though no formal schedule as of July 14. Polymarket shows high odds for a July 31 meeting.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
The base rate for a $95+ intraday spike in July is low (~20%), and while current geopolitical risks have boosted prices, the required additional rally is aggressive. Prediction market odds around 42% seem slightly inflated by recent news; I adjust downward to 35% considering the headwinds from a strong dollar and potential for de-escalation.
Current prediction markets and expert aggregators place the probability of WTI crude oil hitting $95 in July 2026 at about 42%, reflecting a moderate chance. This is based on recent futures prices near $70, historical frequency of such price spikes, and the absence of immediate geopolitical shocks or supply disruptions that would drive prices sharply higher. The market consensus suggests that while a spike to $95 is possible, it is less likely than not given current supply and demand dynamics.
WTI futures are currently trading near $70, significantly below the $95 threshold. Market conditions are characterized by rising global inventories, softening demand, and expectations of a return to surplus, making a 35% rally in the remaining days of July highly improbable without a major, unforeseen geopolitical shock.
The base rate for WTI crude oil hitting $95 in July is historically low, with only one instance in the last five years. Current geopolitical tensions have driven prices up, but a sustained rally to $95 requires significant escalation. The market's current pricing suggests a 42% chance, but historical data and potential pullback risks suggest a slightly lower probability.
Current WTI prices trade near $70, with downward pressure from rising inventories and non-OPEC supply growth. While geopolitical risks could spark short-term spikes, the base rate of WTI exceeding $95 in July is low (20% over recent years) [PredictionHub](https://www.predictionhub.app/markets/pm%3A2730117). A single 1-minute candle could breach $95 during volatility, but structural factors and easing Middle East tensions reduce likelihood [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-july-2026).
Current WTI near $70 with rising inventories and softening demand, but geopolitical risks persist. Historical occurrence is low, and market odds are around 42%.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
WTI crude oil is currently trading near $70/bbl as of late June 2026, with a sharp decline from Q2 highs due to easing supply fears from a potential US-Iran deal and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, plus rising inventories and softening demand. The market is pricing in a return to surplus, which increases the chance of a dip to $65, but the current price is still $5 above that level, requiring a further ~7% drop in July. Given the volatility and geopolitical risks, a 35% probability reflects a moderate chance of hitting $65, as the downward pressure is strong but not certain to push prices that low within the month.
Current market data and futures prices indicate a 65% probability that WTI crude oil will hit a low of $65 in July 2026. This is supported by recent easing of supply disruptions, rising global inventories, and projections of surplus conditions, which put downward pressure on prices. However, lingering geopolitical risks and volatility keep the probability from being higher.
As of late June 2026, WTI crude oil is trading near $70 per barrel, reflecting a downward trend driven by increased global inventories and easing geopolitical tensions. Given the current market sentiment and the proximity of the $65 threshold, there is a significant likelihood that intraday volatility could push prices down to that level during July, consistent with current market-based probability estimates.
The current market probability on Orrery is 65% [orrery.me](https://orrery.me/markets/will-wti-dip-to-65-in-july-2026-367). Front-month WTI futures are trading near $70 as of June 25, 2026, with downward pressure from rising inventories and softening demand. However, volatility remains high due to geopolitical risks and potential supply disruptions.
As of June 25, 2026, front-month WTI futures are trading near $70, down from earlier peaks but still above $65 [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-july-2026). Market conditions reflect easing supply disruption fears due to progress in US-Iran talks and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, rising global inventories, and anticipated surplus conditions. While downward pressure exists from non-OPEC supply growth and OPEC+ unwind, a drop to $65 appears unlikely given current price levels and fundamentals. The probability of a sharp, sustained decline to breach $65 in July 2026 is low.
Front-month WTI near $70, with downward pressure from inventories and supply, but eased supply fears; market currently shows 65% probability.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Multiple independent prediction markets (Polymarket, PredictionNinja, Polyguana) show consensus probabilities of 78%–85% for no change. Given that the FOMC has maintained a steady stance, inflation remains slightly above target, and there have been no dramatic economic shifts requiring a cut or hike, the base rate from market prices is robust. I set my estimate at 0.82, slightly below the highest market figure to account for residual uncertainty from last-minute data surprises.
Current prediction markets and trading odds indicate a strong consensus that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged after the July 2026 meeting, with probabilities around 80-85%. This reflects expectations of stable economic conditions or a pause in rate adjustments by the FOMC. The official FOMC calendar and resolution rules confirm the timing and criteria for this decision.
Current market sentiment and prediction platforms like [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-july-181?marketSlug=will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-july-2026-meeting&outcomeIndex=0) and [predictionninja.com](https://predictionninja.com/market/will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-july-2026-meeting) consistently show a high probability (around 85%) that the Federal Reserve will maintain the current federal funds rate at the July 2026 meeting. Given the lack of major economic shocks or signals suggesting an immediate policy shift, the 'no change' outcome remains the consensus expectation among market participants.
The prediction markets on Polymarket and Polyguana show a strong consensus, with probabilities of 80% and 78% respectively, that there will be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting. These markets reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities based on the latest economic data and expert analysis.
Prediction markets such as Polymarket and PredictionNinja show the probability of no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting at 80–85%, based on real-time trading activity [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com), [predictionninja.com](https://predictionninja.com). These markets aggregate diverse information and trader expectations, serving as strong leading indicators. While not infallible, they reflect current macroeconomic expectations, including inflation trends and labor market stability, which favor holding rates steady.
Current market probabilities from Polymarket, Polyguana, and PredictionNinja show 'No change' as the leading outcome with around 80-85% chance, indicating strong market consensus.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.