Iran has already conducted multiple major airspace closures in 2026 (January and February), and the current geopolitical tensions remain high, but the question asks about a new general closure by July 31. The Polymarket data shows that a similar market for 'Iran closes its airspace by July 31' has a final outcome of 'No' proposed, and the volume-weighted sentiment appears tilted toward 'No'. Base rates for such closures are low in any given short window, and the recent history of closures makes another one within two weeks less likely unless a new major conflict erupts. I estimate a 15% chance.
Recent data shows that Iran has previously closed its airspace fully in early 2026, but subsequent closures have been partial or limited. Current geopolitical and negotiation contexts suggest that a full airspace closure by July 31 is less likely, as ongoing US-Iran talks and regional dynamics favor either partial restrictions or diplomatic resolutions. The market data and historical patterns indicate a low probability of a full closure by this date.
As of mid-July 2026, there have been no reports of a general, nationwide closure of Iranian airspace that meets the criteria of a 'general closure' for the entire Tehran FIR. While regional tensions persist, the market data from [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-full-airspace-closure-byptptpt-20260625195253028) and [lines.com](https://www.lines.com/prediction-markets/world/iran-full-airspace-closure-byptptpt-20260625195253028) indicates that previous closure events were specific and that the likelihood of a total, non-weather-related shutdown occurring in the final two weeks of July is low, given the lack of current major escalatory triggers.
The prediction markets indicate a high probability of an Iranian airspace closure, with significant trading activity and implied probabilities around 74.5% for a closure by August 31. The current market leader is June 30 at 100%, suggesting a strong expectation of an earlier closure. Historical examples show that Iran has previously implemented general airspace closures, and ongoing geopolitical tensions and nuclear negotiations could trigger such a closure. However, the exact timing remains uncertain, and the probability is adjusted to reflect the possibility of delays or changes in the geopolitical situation.
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The market 'Iran closes its airspace by...?' has been resolved with a final outcome of 'No'.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
As of July 16, 2026, only about 15 days remain until the July 31 deadline. The Strait of Hormuz has been severely disrupted since early June, with traffic far below the pre-crisis average of ~100 daily transits, and current 7-day moving averages are likely well below 60. Reaching a 7-day average of 60 would require a rapid and sustained return of shipping, which is extremely challenging given the time needed for de-mining, insurance normalization, and vessel repositioning. While diplomatic talks offer a slim chance of a sudden de-escalation, the Polymarket price of 1% (with $17M volume) reflects strong collective judgment that this threshold will not be met. I assign a slightly higher probability (2%) to account for tail risks such as a verified surge in transit calls due to a partial agreement, but the odds remain very low.
The prediction market on Polymarket, which aggregates real-money trades and expert opinions, currently prices the probability of Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by July 31 at about 46%. This near-even split reflects ongoing diplomatic negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, the current low traffic levels, and the potential for a diplomatic breakthrough or de-escalation that could restore shipping traffic. Given the complexity and volatility of the situation, the market's implied probability is a strong indicator of the true likelihood.
Current market data and geopolitical conditions indicate that shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remains severely constrained. With the July 31 deadline approaching and no significant evidence of a rapid, large-scale normalization of transit volumes to the required 60-call threshold, the probability of a 'Yes' resolution is extremely low.
The current market probability on Polymarket is 1% for 'Yes' [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31), but another source indicates a 46% probability [lines.com](https://www.lines.com/prediction-markets/politics/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31). Given the recent US-Iran framework agreement and the potential for diplomatic progress, there is a significant chance of traffic normalization. However, persistent security risks and de-mining requirements pose substantial challenges. The key factors include the status of US-Iran negotiations, IMF Portwatch transit call data, and any reduction in naval activity or insurance premiums.
Recent diplomatic talks between the U.S. and Iran, mediated by Oman, have created a narrow path toward de-escalation, which could lead to increased shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The market is currently pricing in a 46% chance of traffic returning to normal, based on the possibility of a verified reduction in naval activity or a diplomatic breakthrough. However, persistent security risks, high insurance costs, and ongoing naval patrols continue to suppress transit volumes well below the pre-crisis average of around 100 daily passages. The key trigger for a 'Yes' resolution would be IMF Portwatch reporting a 7-day moving average of 60 or more transit calls before July 31, 2026, which remains plausible but uncertain.
The Polymarket crowd-sourced probability is 1%, and key factors include the reliance on IMF Portwatch data and ongoing security/diplomatic constraints.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
The combination of active military strikes between Iran and the US, the extremely tight negotiation window, and the demanding criteria for a qualifying final deal make a signed or adopted agreement by August 18 highly unlikely. Historical precedent for nuclear agreements with Iran also suggests a longer timeline. The MOU itself may be in jeopardy due to the conflict.
While the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement on June 14, 2026, initiating a 60-day extendable negotiation period toward a final deal, no public reports or official statements indicate that a final, signed or formally adopted nuclear deal has been reached by mid-July 2026. Given the complexity of Iran nuclear negotiations historically and the short timeframe remaining before the August 18 deadline, the probability of a final deal being signed by then is relatively low but not negligible, especially if extensions or breakthroughs occur.
While the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding [cnn.com](https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/17/middleeast/us-iran-war-mou-text-intl) established a framework for negotiations, the geopolitical climate remains highly volatile, as evidenced by recent military strikes on bases hosting U.S. assets [abcnews.com](https://abcnews.com/International/iran-hit-3-bases-hosting-us-assets-latest/story?id=134815868). Reaching a 'final deal' with concrete, measurable nuclear benchmarks within the 60-day window (ending mid-August) is historically difficult, and the current escalation of hostilities significantly reduces the likelihood of the necessary diplomatic trust and consensus required for such a comprehensive agreement.
The recent agreement between the US and Iran on June 14, 2026, sets a 60-day deadline for a final deal, which is within the resolution period. However, historical context shows that such negotiations often face significant hurdles and delays. The current geopolitical tensions, as indicated by recent strikes on US bases in Iran [abcnews.com](https://abcnews.com/International/iran-hit-3-bases-hosting-us-assets-latest/story?id=134815868), suggest a challenging environment for reaching a final agreement. The release of the official agreement text [cnn.com](https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/17/middleeast/us-iran-war-mou-text-intl) indicates progress, but the complexity and sensitivity of the issues involved make a successful outcome uncertain.
The June 14 agreement initiated talks, but recent hostilities and lack of progress suggest low odds of a final, substantive deal by August 18. The absence of confirmatory diplomatic advances or official statements pointing to a finalized instrument reduces the likelihood. Base rates for successful nuclear negotiations under tension are low, and current evidence does not indicate breakthroughs.
No direct information on US-Iran nuclear deal progress from the provided web search results. The 60-day negotiation period from June 14, 2026, to August 14, 2026, with a possible extension to August 18, 2026, but no indication of a finalized deal.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
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Current prediction market data from Polymarket shows a 31% probability that The Odyssey's opening weekend box office will exceed $115 million domestically. Industry projections estimate a domestic opening between $90-100 million, with strong IMAX demand potentially boosting numbers, but not definitively pushing it above $115 million. Given these mixed signals, a 31% chance reflects cautious optimism but not a majority likelihood.
While industry projections from sources like [sacnilk.com](https://www.sacnilk.com/news/the-odyssey-box-office-projections-christopher-nolans-epic-to-open-with-200-million-worldwide) suggest a strong opening in the $90-100 million range with potential to exceed $100 million, reaching over $115 million is an optimistic outcome. The prediction market [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/the-odyssey-opening-weekend-box-office-20260623143428166) currently assigns a 31% probability to the >115m bracket, reflecting significant but not majority confidence in such a high performance.
The Polymarket prediction market currently assigns a 31% probability to 'The Odyssey' Opening Weekend Box Office being greater than 115m. This is the highest probability among all the brackets, indicating that the collective wisdom of traders leans towards this outcome being the most likely. Additionally, projections from sources like Sacnilk and Deadline suggest strong box office performance, with estimates ranging from $90-100 million domestically and over $200 million worldwide, which supports the possibility of exceeding 115m.
The Polymarket prediction market assigns a 31% probability to 'The Odyssey' opening weekend gross being greater than $115M, based on real-time trading activity reflecting collective trader sentiment [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com). Industry projections from Sacnilk and Deadline suggest a domestic opening in the $90–100M range, with some estimates extending to over $100M, indicating a meaningful but uncertain chance of exceeding $115M [sacnilk.com](https://www.sacnilk.com). Strong IMAX and premium format demand add upside potential, but the consensus leans below $115M, making a breach possible but not the most likely outcome.
Polymarket shows the '>115m' outcome at 31%, and other projections range up to $100-120m but not consistently exceeding 115m.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Polymarket prediction markets currently price this event at 25.5% (as of July 16, 2026), reflecting a consensus that a dip to $57,500 is possible but not likely. Bitcoin has been trading in a range above $60,000 for most of July, with related markets showing high confidence (e.g., 95.9% for reaching $62,500) that prices stay above $57,500. However, crypto volatility is high, and a sudden sell-off could trigger a brief touch of that level, so I estimate a 25% chance.
Current prediction markets, such as Polymarket, assign about a 25.5% probability that Bitcoin will dip to $57,500 or lower on Binance during July 2026. This reflects market consensus considering Bitcoin's recent price trends, volatility, and typical price support levels. Given the inherent volatility of Bitcoin but also recent strength, a dip to this level is possible but not highly likely.
Current market data from [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-dip-to-57pt5k-in-july-2026) indicates a 25.5% probability for Bitcoin dipping to $57,500 in July 2026. Given that Bitcoin is currently trading well above this level and the market has shown relative stability, the likelihood of a sudden flash crash to this specific support level within the remaining weeks of July is considered moderate to low.
The current market probability on Polymarket for Bitcoin dipping to $57,500 in July is 25.5%. This is a reasonable estimate given the context of other related markets and the general volatility of Bitcoin. The probability is higher than the chance of dipping to $55,000 (12.5%) but lower than the chance of dipping to $52,500 (7.5%), which suggests a moderate likelihood of a dip to $57,500.
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Based on the Polymarket data, the current probability of Bitcoin dipping to $57,500 in July 2026 is 25.5%.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
As of July 16, 2026, Bitcoin has already reached at least $65,000 in July (the $65k market shows 100% odds), and the Polymarket probability for hitting $67,500 is 36.5%. With about half the month remaining and Bitcoin's typical daily volatility around 3-5%, the chance of a 3.8% move from $65k is plausible but not certain. I align closely with the market estimate as it aggregates current information efficiently.
Current prediction markets, which aggregate diverse trader insights and data, assign about a 36.5% chance that Bitcoin will reach $67,500 on Binance in July 2026. This reflects moderate optimism tempered by the volatility and uncertainty inherent in cryptocurrency markets. Given the market's reliance on Binance 1-minute candle highs and the current trading environment, this probability is a reasonable estimate.
Current market data from platforms like Polymarket and Myriad indicates that the probability of Bitcoin reaching $67,500 in July 2026 is hovering between 36.5% and 54%. Given that Bitcoin has already shown strength by reaching the $65,000 threshold with high confidence, a move to $67,500 is well within the range of typical monthly volatility for the asset, justifying a slightly optimistic estimate.
The current market odds on Polymarket and Myriad suggest a significant chance of Bitcoin reaching $67,500 in July, with probabilities around 36.5% to 51%. The higher probability of Bitcoin reaching $65,000 (100% on Polymarket, 85% on Myriad) indicates strong momentum, but the $67,500 target is more uncertain. Historical volatility and recent market trends support a moderate probability.
As of 2026-07-16, Bitcoin has not yet reached $67,500 in July, and the current price trajectory suggests limited upside momentum toward that level before month-end. While Bitcoin surpassed $65,000 with high probability (priced at ~100% on Polymarket [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-reach-65k-in-july-2026)), the market for $67,500 shows significantly lower confidence, with a 36.5% implied probability on Polymarket [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-reach-67pt5k-in-july-2026) and 50% on Myriad [myriad.markets](https://myriad.markets/events/btc-highs-in-july-2108ac54), indicating uncertainty. Given that $67,500 is a steeper target and only a few days remain in the month, the base rate of price movement and recent trends suggest a modest chance of reaching that level.
The Polymarket currently gives a 36.5% chance, and this is a key factor. Other relevant factors include the resolution criteria based on Binance's 1-minute BTC/USDT candles.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
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Market data from Polymarket, which aggregates trader sentiment and information, currently prices the probability of Bitcoin reaching $70,000 in July 2026 at about 25.5%. This reflects a moderate chance given current trends and volatility, with no strong indicators suggesting a much higher or lower probability at this time.
Current market data from prediction platforms indicates a 25.5% probability that Bitcoin will hit the $70,000 threshold on the Binance BTC/USDT pair during July 2026. Given that the price has already surpassed $65,000, the remaining gap to $70,000 requires moderate volatility, which is reflected in the current market sentiment.
The prediction markets on Polymarket currently estimate a 25.5% probability that Bitcoin will reach $70,000 in July 2026. This is a reasonable starting point for the estimate. The probability decreases for higher price targets, with 8.5% for $72,500 and 1.1% for $77,500, suggesting that $70,000 is a more plausible target within the month.
The current market-implied probability on Polymarket for Bitcoin reaching $70,000 on Binance's BTC/USDT pair during July 2026 is 25.5%, based on real-time trading data. This reflects aggregated trader expectations using the specified resolution criteria. Given that the market is actively traded and incorporates diverse information, it serves as a strong base rate for forecasting [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com).
Polymarket currently prices a 25.5% probability that Bitcoin reaches $70,000 in July 2026 based on Binance's BTC/USDT 1-minute candle high prices.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
The market consensus from Polymarket and Orrery is around 45-46% as of mid-July 2026. With roughly half the month elapsed and recent price increases, the chance of touching $85 is plausible but not certain. I adopt a slightly conservative estimate of 0.45, consistent with the efficient market price.
Market-based probabilities from Polymarket and Orrery indicate about a 45-46% chance that WTI Crude Oil will hit $85 in July 2026. These probabilities reflect current trading volumes, open interest, and recent price trends, suggesting a near-even chance but slightly less than 50%. Given the volatility of oil prices and the market's forward-looking nature, this estimate is reasonable.
The market probability for WTI Crude Oil hitting $85 in July 2026 has seen significant upward momentum, rising from lower levels to approximately 46% as of mid-July. Given the volatility inherent in oil markets and the proximity to the resolution date, the current market pricing reflects a balanced assessment of the likelihood of a price spike reaching the $85 threshold.
The current market probability on Polymarket is 46%, which is a significant indicator. The price of WTI Crude Oil has shown volatility, with recent trading activity and liquidity suggesting a moderate chance of hitting $85. The base rate for such price movements in WTI is also a key factor.
The current market-implied probability of 45.5% reflects active trading and recent upward momentum. However, thin liquidity suggests the price may not be fully efficient. Adjusting slightly upward from market price due to recent bullish movement and historical volatility clustering, but remaining cautious given lack of strong fundamental catalysts pushing oil sharply higher.
As of July 16, 2026, Polymarket implies a 45.5% to 46% probability, with recent price movements and thin liquidity considered.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
The Polymarket price for '↑ $95' is ~1.4¢, implying ~1.4% probability. Given the remaining short time frame and typical crude oil volatility, a 2% chance is reasonable. The market is relatively liquid, so its estimate is informative, but I adjust slightly upward to account for potential tail risk spikes not fully captured.
Current prediction markets on Polymarket assign about a 1% chance that WTI Crude Oil will hit $95 in July 2026, reflecting a very low probability based on collective market expectations. Given the typical volatility and recent price trends, reaching $95 is considered unlikely within the specified timeframe. The market's high trading volume and active participation suggest these odds are well-informed and incorporate relevant market data and sentiment.
Current market data and prediction markets indicate that the probability of WTI Crude Oil reaching $95 in July 2026 is extremely low, with most trading activity and sentiment centered around significantly lower price points. Given the current market conditions and the lack of major geopolitical or supply-side shocks to drive such a sharp increase, it is highly unlikely to hit this threshold.
The current market consensus on Polymarket suggests a 100% probability that WTI will hit $70 in July 2026, with the next closest outcome being $65 at 72%. The probability of WTI hitting $95 is significantly lower, as indicated by the 46% probability of hitting $85. This suggests that $95 is considered a high but less likely target. The recent trading volume and price movements also support a lower probability for such a high price target.
The current Polymarket price for the '↑ $95' outcome is 1.8¢, which implies a 1.8% probability that WTI Crude Oil will reach or exceed $95 in July 2026 [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-july-2026). This reflects real-time crowd-sourced expectations and is consistent with the broader market context where higher price targets have low implied probabilities. The $85 target has a 46% implied probability, showing a sharp decline in likelihood as price targets increase, making $95 a very unlikely threshold to reach [orrery.me](https://orrery.me/markets/will-wti-reach-85-in-july-2026).
Current Polymarket odds for WTI hitting $95 in July 2026 are 1%, indicating low market belief. Trading volume and odds reflect minimal expectation of this outcome.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
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Current prediction markets and trading data indicate a roughly 65% probability that WTI Crude Oil will hit a low of $65 at some point during July 2026. This is supported by active market pricing and volume, reflecting traders' collective expectations based on supply-demand forecasts, geopolitical factors, and historical price volatility.
Market sentiment and current prediction data from platforms like Polymarket and PredictionNinja indicate a 65% probability that WTI Crude Oil will hit the $65 threshold in July 2026. Given the volatility inherent in energy markets and the specific resolution criteria based on 1-minute candle data, this probability reflects the likelihood of a temporary dip reaching that price point during the month.
The current market probability on PredictionNinja is 65%, which is a strong indicator. Additionally, the Polymarket data shows a 15% chance for WTI to hit $65 or lower, but this is for a different market structure. The base rate for such price movements in WTI is also considered, adjusting for recent market trends and volatility.
The 72% market-implied probability reflects trader sentiment, but prediction markets can be biased. Adjusting for historical volatility and current supply-demand balance, the true probability is slightly lower. WTI has not traded near $65 since 2020, and macro conditions in 2026 are expected to be stable, making a drop to $65 possible but not highly likely. Base rates on monthly lows support a ~65% estimate.
The current market probability from multiple sources is 65%, and there's no strong indication of a significant shift in factors affecting WTI Crude Oil prices in July 2026.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
The April and June meetings are already known to have been pauses, so the question reduces to whether the July 28-29 meeting will also be a pause. The Fed's data-dependent stance, above-target inflation, and stable labor market make a hold highly likely. Prediction markets and Fed funds futures converge around a ~93% probability, which I adjust slightly downward to 0.92 to account for model uncertainty and small tail risks of an unexpected move.
Current prediction markets show a strong consensus that the Fed will maintain the federal funds rate unchanged across the next three FOMC meetings in April, June, and July 2026, with probabilities ranging from 87% to 93%. This reflects expectations of a stable economic environment and no immediate pressure for rate hikes or cuts. Given the consistency and strength of these market signals, a high probability of a pause-pause-pause sequence is justified.
Current market sentiment and economic indicators strongly favor a period of stability for the Federal Reserve through the summer of 2026. Prediction markets like Polymarket consistently price the 'Pause-Pause-Pause' outcome at a high probability, reflecting a consensus that the Fed will maintain current interest rate levels across the April, June, and July meetings to monitor inflation and economic growth.
Prediction markets like Polymarket and Lines.com show strong consensus (87-93%) that the Fed will pause in all three meetings. The Fed has held rates steady since December 2025, and economic conditions suggest no immediate need for changes. However, I adjust slightly downward to account for potential economic surprises.
Prediction markets such as Polymarket and Lines.com show implied probabilities between 78.5% and 87% for a 'Pause–Pause–Pause' outcome across the April, June, and July 2026 FOMC meetings [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decisions-apr-jul), [lines.com](https://www.lines.com/prediction-markets/economy/fed-decisions-apr-jul). The Federal Reserve has held rates steady at 4.25–4.50% since December 2025, and current expectations reflect a high degree of confidence in continued stability due to moderating inflation and stable economic growth. While risks remain (e.g., inflation resurgence or labor market weakness), the base rate of no change, supported by recent Fed guidance, makes three consecutive pauses the most likely path.
The market currently has a high probability of the Fed pausing rates in the next three meetings, but there are potential risks that could lead to a cut or hike.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Multiple prediction markets consistently price a 'no change' outcome at 95–96%, reflecting strong consensus. The economic backdrop (inflation above target but trending down, stable labor market) supports a hold. Given the proximity to the meeting and absence of fresh data or Fed speeches suggesting a move, the probability of no change is very high.
Prediction markets such as Polymarket currently assign a very high probability (around 85-96%) to no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting, reflecting strong market consensus. Given the Federal Reserve's recent cautious approach to rate changes and the lack of strong signals for a rate adjustment, it is reasonable to assign a high probability to no change. However, some uncertainty remains due to potential economic developments before the meeting.
Market sentiment and economic consensus strongly favor the Federal Reserve maintaining current interest rates during the July 2026 FOMC meeting. While prediction markets show some variance in implied probability, the overwhelming consensus across multiple platforms [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-july-181), [predictionninja.com](https://predictionninja.com/market/will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-july-2026-meeting), and [polyguana.com](https://polyguana.com/market/1654958) points to 'No change' as the most likely outcome, reflecting a stable monetary policy outlook.
The prediction markets overwhelmingly favor no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting, with probabilities ranging from 78% to 96% across different sources. The high liquidity and volume in these markets suggest strong consensus among traders. Given the current economic indicators and the Fed's recent statements, it is highly likely that the Fed will maintain the current interest rates.
Aggregating data from multiple prediction markets, the implied probability of no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting is high. While individual platforms vary, the average leans strongly toward no change, with Polymarket at 96% being particularly influential due to high liquidity. This suggests a robust consensus, leading to an independent estimate of 0.9.
Multiple prediction markets show high probabilities of no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.