Given the Israeli government's firm public commitment to remaining in southern Lebanon as of mid-June and the very short remaining time, a withdrawal announcement by July 31 appears unlikely. The market's 15% probability may be optimistic; I estimate a 10% chance, accounting for a small possibility of a surprise agreement or tactical announcement.
Current prediction markets, including Polymarket and Orrery, assign about a 15% probability that Israel will announce a full withdrawal of ground forces from Lebanon by July 31, 2026. This low probability reflects ongoing Israeli security concerns, official statements rejecting withdrawal as a precondition for peace, and Hezbollah's demands for full Israeli exit before ceasefire compliance. Limited tactical pullbacks have occurred but no broad withdrawal is expected soon.
Current Israeli government statements indicate an intention to maintain a presence in southern Lebanon to counter Hezbollah threats, with officials explicitly rejecting withdrawal as a precondition for peace deals. While limited tactical pullbacks have occurred, there is no indication of a full withdrawal of ground forces by the end of July 2026, aligning with the low probability assigned by prediction markets.
The current market consensus on Polymarket and other prediction markets suggests a 15% chance of Israel withdrawing from Lebanon by July 31, 2026. This aligns with statements from Israeli officials indicating a refusal to withdraw forces indefinitely, despite ongoing diplomatic efforts and ceasefire frameworks.
Current evidence indicates Israel has no plans to withdraw from Lebanon by July 31, 2026. Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz stated on June 15-16 that troops will remain indefinitely in southern Lebanon to counter Hezbollah threats, rejecting withdrawal as a precondition for any deal [hkimarket.com](https://hkimarket.com/event/israel-withdraws-from-lebanon-by/israel-withdraws-from-lebanon-by-july-31-2026). While limited tactical pullbacks have occurred, there is no indication of a full withdrawal announcement before the deadline. Market odds on Polymarket reflect a 15% chance of withdrawal, consistent with this assessment [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/israel-withdraws-from-lebanon-by).
Current market probabilities from Polymarket and Orrery indicate around 15% chance, considering Israel's stated refusal to withdraw indefinitely and limited tactical pullbacks.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
The current Polymarket crowd probability is 1%, and multiple sources indicate the 7-day moving average of transit calls remains well below the 60 threshold due to ongoing Iran-U.S. tensions, elevated naval patrols, and high insurance costs deterring shipping. While diplomatic talks via Oman could theoretically improve the situation, the remaining 12 days until July 31 are extremely short for a sustained recovery to a 60-call average, especially given the inertia in shipping rerouting decisions. Base rates for such rapid reversals in geopolitical disruptions are very low, and the market's thin but consistent 1% price suggests informed traders see minimal chance of a near-term normalization.
The probability is near even, around 46%, reflecting a balance between ongoing diplomatic efforts between the US and Iran and persistent security risks and operational constraints in the Strait of Hormuz. While recent US-Iran framework agreements have raised hopes for normalized shipping, factors such as de-mining, insurance premiums, and naval patrol disruptions continue to suppress traffic. The 80-day window allows for potential diplomatic breakthroughs to translate into increased transit calls, but current data shows minimal recovery, leading to a cautious but not negligible chance of normalization by July 31.
The current market sentiment and available data indicate a very low probability of traffic returning to the specified threshold by the July 31, 2026, deadline. Given the persistent geopolitical tensions and the lack of significant de-escalation in the region, it is highly unlikely that the 7-day moving average of transit calls will reach the required 60-call threshold within the remaining timeframe.
The current market odds on Polymarket suggest a 1% chance of the Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by July 31, 2026. However, considering the recent US-Iran framework agreement and the potential for diplomatic progress, there is a slight possibility of improvement. The base rate of 1% is adjusted upwards to 10% to account for potential positive developments in the diplomatic arena.
Despite diplomatic efforts, actual shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely constrained. The 1% market-implied probability reflects minimal expectation of a rapid recovery by July 31, consistent with observed data and ongoing geopolitical risks. Absent a sudden, verified de-escalation, normalization is unlikely in the narrow window remaining.
Current transit calls are below the 60 threshold, and while there's diplomatic progress, it's uncertain if it will reach the level by July 31.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
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Given the recent U.S. air strike on July 14, 2026, the 14-day ceasefire clock would reset starting July 15, making it impossible to complete a 14-day continuous ceasefire by July 24. There is no evidence of an ongoing ceasefire window prior to market creation, and structural factors such as the lack of diplomatic channels and ongoing hostilities make a ceasefire highly unlikely within this timeframe.
The market requires a 14-day period of no qualifying US military action against Iran to conclude by July 24, 2026. Given that a confirmed US strike occurred on July 14, 2026 [polymarketsignal.com], the earliest a 14-day window could possibly conclude is July 28, 2026. Consequently, it is mathematically impossible for the condition to be met by the July 24 deadline [next.questflow.ai, cryptoslate.com].
The analysis indicates that the 14-day ceasefire window cannot be achieved by July 24, 2026, due to the recent U.S. strike on July 14 and the ongoing tensions. The structural factors, including the lack of diplomatic channels and the high bar for a continuous 14-day pause, make this outcome highly unlikely.
The market requires a 14-day continuous period with no qualifying US military action against Iran, starting by July 24, 2026. Given that US strikes were confirmed as recently as July 8 and further exchanges reported on July 18 [cryptoslate.com](https://cryptoslate.com/predictions/market/us-iran-effective-ceasefire-by-2-week-pause/), the clock has reset. With only 6 days remaining until market close, a new 14-day window cannot be completed. The only viable path to 'Yes' is if a ceasefire had already begun before July 15 — but no evidence supports an ongoing pause [questflow.ai](https://next.questflow.ai/artifact/6a5b257588f388f9ed1cb4ff/detail). Structural factors, including the absence of diplomatic channels and Trump’s maximum pressure policy, further reduce the likelihood.
The 14-day ceasefire window must start before July 15 and run through July 24. With no active diplomatic channel and recent strikes, it's highly unlikely to complete by July 24.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
The web search results from July 19, 2026 show a full-blown military escalation: US strikes on Iranian sites near the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian attacks on US bases in Jordan and Gulf states, and Iran suspending the Islamabad MoU. The diplomatic process that was meant to lead to a final nuclear deal by mid-August has collapsed. With ongoing hostilities and no signs of resumed negotiations, the probability of a signed final deal by August 18 is extremely low, estimated at 1%.
Recent events show escalating military conflict between the US and Iran, including multiple airstrikes and retaliatory attacks, which severely undermine diplomatic progress. Although a memorandum of understanding was signed in mid-June 2026, the ongoing hostilities and Iran's suspension of the Islamabad MoU indicate a low likelihood of finalizing a comprehensive nuclear deal by August 18, 2026. The high tensions and active conflict reduce the probability of reaching a mutually signed final agreement within the short timeframe.
The diplomatic framework established in June 2026 has completely collapsed due to a severe military escalation between the United States and Iran. With both nations actively engaged in direct strikes, the suspension of the Islamabad MoU, and hostile rhetoric from leadership, the conditions for negotiating a final nuclear deal have been replaced by an active state of conflict.
The current escalation in military strikes between the US and Iran significantly reduces the likelihood of a final nuclear deal by August 18, 2026. The recent attacks and retaliations indicate a high level of tension and conflict, making diplomatic negotiations and agreements less likely in the near term. The suspension of the Islamabad MoU by Iran further complicates the situation, as it suggests a breakdown in trust and cooperation between the two countries.
As of 2026-07-19, the U.S. and Iran are engaged in escalating military conflict, with U.S. strikes on Iranian sites near the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian retaliatory attacks on U.S. forces and Gulf allies [dailytimes.com.pk](https://dailytimes.com.pk/1525171/two-us-soldiers-killed-in-iran-attack-in-jordan-iran-suspends-islamabad-mou-after-50-killed-in-us-strikes/). Iran has suspended its commitments under the recent Islamabad MoU, citing U.S. violations [dailytimes.com.pk](https://dailytimes.com.pk/1525171/two-us-soldiers-killed-in-iran-attack-in-jordan-iran-suspends-islamabad-mou-after-50-killed-in-us-strikes/). Despite a prior 14-point agreement aimed at reopening the Strait and setting nuclear talks, active hostilities and mutual strikes make diplomatic progress highly unlikely before August 18, 2026. The breakdown in trust and ongoing war severely undermine the prospects for a final nuclear deal within the timeframe.
There is a 60-day negotiation period from June 14, 2026, but ongoing US-Iran tensions and attacks may complicate reaching a final deal by August 18, 2026.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
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Market data from Polymarket indicates an 8.5% probability that Bitcoin will dip to $57,500 or lower on Binance during July 2026. Given the volatility of Bitcoin and the specific resolution criteria, this low probability reflects current market sentiment and historical price behavior around this level.
Market sentiment and betting data from [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-dip-to-57pt5k-in-july-2026) indicate a probability of approximately 21.5% for Bitcoin hitting $57,500 in July 2026. While some earlier estimates varied, the current market consensus reflects the volatility inherent in crypto markets and the specific requirement for a 1-minute candle dip on Binance.
The market odds from Polymarket suggest a 8.5% chance of Bitcoin dipping to $57,500 in July 2026. Considering the base rate and the fact that markets are generally well-calibrated, I adjust slightly upwards to account for potential underestimation of volatility, arriving at 15%.
The current market-implied probability on Polymarket for Bitcoin dipping to $57,500 or lower in July 2026 is 21.5%, based on real-time trading data [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-dip-to-57pt5k-in-july-2026). This reflects aggregated trader expectations using Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle low prices as the resolution source. While market prices are not perfect predictors, they incorporate diverse information and incentives, making them strong base-rate indicators for such short-term price events.
Polymarket currently prices the event at 8.5% based on Binance 1-minute candle data for BTC/USDT in July 2026.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Current price around $62,600 requires a ~12% gain in the remaining 12 days of July, a large move for a mature asset. Prediction markets price this at ~20%, which aligns with base rates for such extreme short-term moves. Geopolitical and macroeconomic headwinds reduce the chance of a sharp spike. I estimate 20% as a well-calibrated probability.
Market data from Polymarket and Ominari, which use Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle highs as the resolution source, indicate about a 20.5% to 21% probability that Bitcoin will reach $70,000 in July 2026. Bitcoin is currently trading near $62,600 and needs roughly a 12% rally to hit $70,000, which is plausible but not highly likely given recent consolidation and resistance levels. These market-based probabilities reflect collective trader sentiment and available information.
As of mid-July 2026, Bitcoin is trading near $62,600, requiring a roughly 12% rally to hit the $70,000 target. Prediction markets like Polymarket and Ominari currently price this outcome between 17% and 21%, reflecting the difficulty of overcoming recent resistance levels and the limited time remaining in the month. Given the current consolidation and lack of major bullish catalysts, a significant breakout before August 1st is statistically unlikely.
Bitcoin's current price and recent trends suggest a moderate likelihood of reaching $70,000 in July. The market consensus from prediction platforms like Polymarket and Manifold indicates probabilities around 20-23%, which aligns with the technical analysis showing a 12% rally needed from mid-month levels. Key factors include recent price consolidation, geopolitical influences, and inflation data impacts.
unparseable forecast JSON
Bitcoin is currently near $62,600 and needs a ~12% rally to reach $70,000 by end-July. Existing market probabilities from Polymarket (20.5%) and Manifold (23%) are considered.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Based on the recency of the MOU (June 14, 2026) and the absence of any escalating tensions or official statements indicating a definitive end to negotiations, the probability of a qualifying withdrawal announcement by July 31, 2026 is low. Both the U.S. and Iran have an interest in continuing the 60-day framework, and internal political pressures in Iran are unlikely to trigger a formal, unconditional termination within this short window. The strict market criteria further lower the chance.
Given the recent June 14, 2026 MOU between the US and Iran establishing a 60-day negotiation framework, there is some risk Iran might withdraw if negotiations stall or political pressures increase. However, Iran has incentives to continue talks to avoid renewed conflict and sanctions. No current official announcements or credible leaks indicate imminent withdrawal, so the probability remains relatively low but non-negligible within the 60-day window ending July 31.
The MOU was established very recently (June 14, 2026), and there is no current evidence of an imminent collapse or official intent to withdraw. Given the short timeframe remaining until July 31 and the high threshold for a 'qualifying announcement' as defined by the market, a formal, unambiguous termination is unlikely.
The base rate for such negotiations to break down is relatively low, and there is no specific evidence suggesting an imminent withdrawal. The market odds also reflect a low probability of withdrawal.
Given the lack of any official Iranian government statement terminating negotiations as of mid-July 2026, and the ongoing 60-day framework initiated on June 14, the probability of a withdrawal announcement by July 31 remains low. Historical patterns of Iranian diplomatic behavior suggest caution in outright terminating negotiations prematurely, especially within the first half of the agreed period. Therefore, the base rate of no withdrawal is high unless new escalatory events occur.
Limited time left (as of July 19, ~12 days) and strict criteria for a qualifying official announcement make a withdrawal announcement unlikely.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Current WTI futures trade near $70 as of late June/early July 2026, with supply fears easing due to US-Iran deal and Strait of Hormuz reopening, and rising inventories adding downward pressure. A rally to $90 would require a ~28% surge in the remaining ~12 trading days of July, which is highly unlikely given the bearish fundamentals and low volatility environment. Polymarket odds for $90 in July are only 1%, reflecting market consensus. While a geopolitical shock could cause a spike, the probability is very low.
Current market data from Polymarket indicates a 14% chance that WTI Crude Oil will hit $90 in July 2026. This low probability reflects recent easing of supply disruptions, lower demand projections, and rising inventories, which have pushed prices down from previous highs above $100. While geopolitical risks and production restarts could cause spikes, the overall market sentiment and fundamentals suggest a relatively low likelihood of reaching $90.
As of late June 2026, WTI crude oil is trading near $70 per barrel, significantly below the $90 threshold. Market sentiment and current projections suggest a trend toward surplus conditions due to increased non-OPEC supply and easing geopolitical tensions, making a rapid spike to $90 in July unlikely without a major, unforeseen supply shock.
As of June 25, 2026, front-month WTI futures trade near $70, down sharply from Q2 peaks amid rising global inventories and softening demand. EIA projections highlight accelerating OECD stock draws through Q3 before gradual replenishment, while non-OPEC supply growth and OPEC+ unwind add downward pressure. Traders price in a swift return to surplus conditions, with July resolution likely hinging on the pace of Middle East production restarts and any near-term demand data releases. Volatility remains elevated given lingering geopolitical risks. The market odds on Polymarket for WTI hitting $90 in July 2026 are 14%, which is a relevant data point but not the sole factor in this independent assessment.
WTI is currently trading near $70, and recent geopolitical de-escalation has reduced supply risk premiums. Fundamental factors such as rising inventories and anticipated OPEC+ supply increases are creating downward pressure. A spike to $90 would require a significant unforeseen shock, which current evidence does not support. The 14% probability aligns with market-implied odds as of late June 2026 [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-july-2026).
Current front-month WTI near $70, with rising global inventories and softening demand, though geopolitical risks persist. Market factors suggest limited likelihood of hitting $90 in July.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
WTI front-month futures are around $70, with a bearish backdrop of rising inventories, easing geopolitical risks, and OPEC+ supply increases. Reaching $95 would require a 35% rally in under two weeks, which is highly improbable. Polymarket odds are at 1%, and base rates for such extreme moves in a month are similarly low. I set the probability at 2% to account for tail risks like a sudden geopolitical shock, but the evidence strongly favors a No resolution.
Current market data and analysis indicate that WTI crude oil prices are trading near $70 in late June 2026, down from Q2 peaks above $100 due to easing geopolitical tensions and increased supply. The probability of hitting $95 in July 2026 is low given the prevailing surplus conditions, rising inventories, and softening demand, although volatility remains due to lingering geopolitical risks. Market-implied probabilities from Polymarket also suggest a low chance (~6%) of WTI hitting $95 in July.
As of late June 2026, WTI Crude Oil is trading near $70 per barrel, significantly below the $95 threshold. Market sentiment and analyst reports indicate a trend toward surplus conditions due to increased non-OPEC supply and easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, making a rapid 35% price surge to $95 within the remaining days of July highly improbable.
As of June 25, 2026, front-month WTI futures trade near $70, down sharply from Q2 peaks amid rising global inventories and softening demand. EIA projections highlight accelerating OECD stock draws through Q3 before gradual replenishment, while non-OPEC supply growth and OPEC+ unwind add downward pressure. Traders price in a swift return to surplus conditions, with July resolution likely hinging on the pace of Middle East production restarts and any near-term demand data releases. Volatility remains elevated given lingering geopolitical risks. The current Polymarket probability for WTI hitting $85 in July is 57%, which is significantly higher than the probability for hitting $95, suggesting a lower likelihood of reaching $95.
As of late June 2026, WTI crude oil futures are trading near $70, down from earlier peaks above $100 due to eased geopolitical tensions, particularly progress in US-Iran talks and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-july-2026). Market fundamentals show rising global inventories, softening demand, and expectations of surplus conditions due to non-OPEC supply growth and OPEC+ unwind, all exerting downward pressure [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.copilot.markets/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-july-2026). While volatility remains elevated due to lingering risks, the current price trajectory and macroeconomic outlook make a spike to $95 in July 2026 unlikely, though not impossible. Polymarket's implied probability for hitting $95 is around 14%, consistent with this assessment.
As of June 25, 2026, front-month WTI futures trade near $70, down from Q2 peaks. While there's progress in the US-Iran peace deal easing supply fears, global inventories are rising and demand is softening, with traders expecting a return to surplus. This suggests a low likelihood of hitting $95 in July.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
As of July 19, 2026, WTI crude oil is trading near $70, down sharply from Q2 peaks due to easing supply fears from a US-Iran peace deal and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with rising inventories and softening demand adding downward pressure. Polymarket and PredictionNinja both show a live probability of 65% for WTI hitting $65 in July, reflecting market consensus that the price is close to that threshold and could dip further given the bearish fundamentals. The key factors are the current price proximity to $65, the ongoing surplus conditions, and the high volatility from geopolitical risks, which together make a dip to $65 quite likely but not certain.
Current market data and trading odds indicate a 65% probability that WTI Crude Oil will hit a low of $65 in July 2026. This is supported by recent easing of supply disruption fears, ongoing volatility, and projections of surplus conditions, which make a dip to $65 plausible within the month.
As of late June 2026, WTI crude oil prices have been trending downward toward the $70 level due to easing geopolitical tensions, specifically regarding US-Iran relations and the potential for increased supply. Given the current market sentiment and the volatility inherent in energy futures, a dip to $65 is viewed as a plausible scenario by market participants, as reflected in current prediction market pricing [predictionninja.com](https://predictionninja.com/market/will-wti-dip-to-65-in-july-2026) [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-july-2026).
The current market probability on PredictionNinja is 65%, but this seems overly optimistic given the context. Polymarket shows a much lower probability of 6% for WTI hitting $65 in July 2026, which aligns more closely with the recent trading data and market conditions. The base rate for such a significant drop is low, and the recent trends suggest a more stable or slightly declining price around $70.
WTI is currently trading near $70, but downward pressures from rising inventories, softening demand, and improved geopolitical stability increase the chance of a drop to $65. Market-implied probabilities and recent fundamentals align closely, supporting a 65% likelihood of the price dipping to $65 during July trading sessions.
Current market probability is 65%, with factors like eased supply fears from US-Iran peace deal, current price near $70, and EIA projections of rising inventories and softening demand.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
The Fed has held rates at 4.25-4.50% since December 2025. The April and June FOMC meetings have already occurred, and from market prices it is near certain they were pauses. The July meeting is the only remaining uncertainty, but the Fed's data-dependent posture, above-target inflation, and stable labor market suggest no cut. Prediction markets price a July pause at approximately 96% probability. Therefore, the overall probability of three consecutive pauses is essentially the probability of a July pause, which I estimate at 0.95.
Current prediction markets and analysis indicate a strong consensus that the Fed will hold rates steady at the next three FOMC meetings in April, June, and July 2026. The Fed's data-dependent stance, above-target inflation, and stable labor market reduce the likelihood of rate changes. Market prices imply about a 78.5% chance of three consecutive pauses, consistent with the Fed's recent communications and economic indicators.
Current market data and economic indicators strongly favor a 'Pause-Pause-Pause' outcome for the April, June, and July 2026 FOMC meetings. With inflation remaining above target and the labor market showing resilience, the Federal Reserve has maintained a data-dependent, cautious stance, and prediction markets consistently price this sequence at approximately 96% probability.
Prediction markets and Fed futures indicate a strong consensus that the Fed will maintain the current interest rates through the April, June, and July 2026 meetings. The base rate for pauses is high, supported by stable inflation and a cooling but intact labor market. The Fed's recent communications emphasize data dependence without urgency to cut rates.
The Fed is expected to maintain its current rate through April, June, and July 2026, given stable inflation above target and a gradually cooling labor market. Market pricing and Fed guidance both point to a high likelihood of three consecutive pauses, with a 78.5% implied probability from trading data.
Prediction markets show high probabilities for Pause–Pause–Pause, with Polymarket at 96% and other sources around 78-95%. The Fed has held rates steady since Dec 2025, and current economic conditions (above-target inflation, cooling labor market) support pauses.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Multiple prediction markets assign a 93-94% probability to no rate change at the July 2026 FOMC meeting as of July 19, 2026, reflecting strong consensus that the Fed will hold steady given moderating inflation and stable labor market conditions. Base rates for no change during pauses are high (typically 80-90%), and the current market pricing pushes this slightly higher. However, a small probability (around 7%) remains for a 25 bps hike or unexpected cut due to data surprises, so I set my estimate at 0.93.
Multiple prediction markets currently assign a high probability (85%-94%) to no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting, reflecting strong market consensus. Given the Fed's recent tendency to pause rate changes amid economic uncertainty and the lack of strong signals for a hike or cut, it is likely the Fed will maintain rates in July 2026.
Market sentiment and current economic expectations strongly favor a 'no change' decision by the FOMC for the July 2026 meeting. Prediction markets like Polymarket currently reflect a high degree of consensus, with approximately 94% probability assigned to the 'no change' outcome, suggesting that investors anticipate the Federal Reserve will maintain the current target federal funds rate.
Prediction markets consistently show a high probability (85-94%) of no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting. The base rate for Fed rate changes is historically low, and current economic indicators suggest a cautious approach by the Fed. The consensus among traders and analysts supports the likelihood of no change.
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Current market data from Polymarket shows a high probability of no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.