Given the extremely short remaining timeframe (16 days) and the consistent 2% pricing across multiple prediction markets, the chance of a verifiable leadership change by August 31 is very low. While there is speculation about Mojtaba Khamenei's status, no credible reporting has confirmed his removal, death, or incapacitation, and the IRGC appears to be maintaining institutional continuity. The base rate for sudden leadership changes in Iran is also low, and the market consensus strongly favors a 'No' resolution.
Prediction markets and expert consensus strongly indicate institutional continuity of Mojtaba Khamenei's leadership through August 31, 2026. Despite his lack of public appearances and internal power struggles, the IRGC's consolidation of power and the regime's wartime imperative favor maintaining the current leadership. Official reports and market prices consistently assign a very low probability to a leadership change by this date.
Current market data and expert analysis indicate a strong consensus for institutional continuity within the Iranian regime through the end of 2026. Despite Mojtaba Khamenei's lack of public appearances, the IRGC appears to be effectively maintaining the current power structure, and there is no credible evidence of an imminent leadership transition before the August 31 deadline.
Prediction markets consistently assign a very low probability (around 2%) to a leadership change in Iran by August 31, 2026. The consensus among traders and analysts suggests strong institutional continuity under Mojtaba Khamenei, with no significant evidence of his removal or incapacitation.
Prediction markets such as Polymarket, Manifold, and Octagon show a consensus probability of around 2% for a leadership change in Iran by August 31, 2026 [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/events/iran-leadership-change-by), [octagonai.co](https://www.octagonai.co/markets/politics/politics/iran-leadership-change-by/). This reflects strong market confidence in institutional continuity despite Mojtaba Khamenei's lack of public appearances since March 2026 [octagonai.co](https://www.octagonai.co/markets/politics/politics/iran-leadership-change-by/). Credible reporting indicates he remains the de facto leader through proxy control of the IRGC and security apparatus, even amid internal power struggles [octagonai.co](https://www.octagonai.co/markets/politics/politics/iran-leadership-change-by/).
Prediction markets like Polymarket and Octagon show low odds of 2% for a leadership change by August 31, with a consensus on institutional continuity through 2026.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
unparseable forecast JSON
Current prediction markets, which aggregate diverse expert and crowd insights, assign about a 23% chance of a military clash between NATO and Russia by August 31, 2026. Given ongoing tensions but no direct large-scale conflict so far, this moderate probability reflects the risk of escalation without certainty. The definition of military encounter excludes many lower-level incidents, focusing on direct use of force, which remains relatively rare.
While geopolitical tensions remain high, both NATO and Russia have consistently demonstrated a strong desire to avoid direct military escalation that could trigger Article 5 or a broader conflict. Prediction markets [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/nato-x-russia-military-clash-in-2025) currently price this event at a very low probability, reflecting the high threshold for a 'military encounter' as defined in the prompt, which excludes common incidents like airspace violations or non-weaponized collisions.
The current market odds on Polymarket suggest a very low probability of a NATO-Russia military clash by August 31, 2026, with the 'Yes' side priced at 3.6¢, implying a 3.6% chance. This aligns with the broader market sentiment, where the next closest outcome is 'October 31' at 8%. The low trading volume and market prices indicate a consensus of low likelihood among traders.
The Polymarket prediction market for a NATO-Russia military clash by August 31, 2026, currently prices the 'Yes' outcome at 3.6% [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/nato-x-russia-military-clash-in-2025), reflecting real-time trader consensus. This definition includes direct military engagements like missile strikes or gunfire, but excludes non-violent incidents like drone collisions or airspace violations. Historical precedents such as the 2023 Black Sea drone incident do not meet the threshold for resolution. Given ongoing tensions, the base rate remains low due to strong mutual deterrence and escalation management by both sides.
Polymarket odds show a 3.6% chance of a NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026, with low trading activity and the event's specific military encounter definition.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Current traffic is far below the 60-threshold due to ongoing US-Iran tensions, and with only 16 days left, a rapid and sustained recovery is improbable. While a diplomatic surprise or data revision could theoretically push the average above 60, the base rate for such quick resolutions in geopolitical standoffs is very low. Hence, I estimate a 5% chance.
Current prediction markets, which aggregate the collective knowledge and real-money bets of thousands of participants, assign about a 2% probability that Strait of Hormuz traffic will return to normal levels by August 31, 2026. Ongoing geopolitical tensions and suppressed vessel transits support this low probability. Given the market's strong track record of accuracy and the significant volume traded, this is a reliable indicator.
Current geopolitical tensions and ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have kept vessel transit numbers significantly below the threshold required for this market. With only a few weeks remaining until the August 31 deadline and no signs of a rapid de-escalation or surge in shipping activity, the probability of reaching a 7-day moving average of 60 transit calls is extremely low.
The current Polymarket odds suggest a very low probability (2-4.2%) of the Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by August 31, 2026. This is supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions and the fact that traffic is still well below pre-2026 norms as of mid-August. The market's collective knowledge and historical accuracy further support this low probability.
Recent data indicates that vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz remain below normal levels due to ongoing geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran [polymarket.copilot.markets](https://polymarket.copilot.markets/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-august-31-20260702154212320). The market-implied probability of traffic returning to normal (7-day average of 60+ ship transits) by August 31, 2026, is currently around 14% [pdata.world](https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/660108). This reflects low expectations based on real-time trader assessments and persistent regional instability affecting shipping activity.
The market currently prices the 'Yes' outcome at 2% based on real-time trader sentiment, considering ongoing geopolitical tensions suppressing transits.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Based on current evidence, no official US announcement ending the blockade has been made as of August 15, 2026. Polymarket odds for the August 22 deadline are ~21% but have declined sharply from higher levels, and related markets (e.g., August 14) closed near 11%, suggesting time decay. The AP reported a potential ceasefire framework, but it remains unconfirmed and without a formal US statement. Given the lack of official action, the structural bias is strongly toward 'No' by the deadline, yielding a low probability estimate of about 12%.
The probability of a US announcement ending the Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026, is low but not negligible. The blockade was reinstated on July 13, 2026, and recent official statements do not indicate any suspension or termination. Markets currently price the chance at about 21%, reflecting some possibility due to ongoing mediation efforts and shifts in US tactics towards sanctions rather than blockade, but no confirmed deal or official announcement has been made yet.
While there are ongoing diplomatic efforts and reports of a potential deal, no official announcement has been made as of mid-August 2026. The market probability has fluctuated significantly, and the lack of a concrete, official statement from the U.S. government regarding the termination of the blockade makes a 'Yes' outcome unlikely before the August 22 deadline.
The current market odds on Polymarket and Frenzy Capital suggest a low probability of the US announcing the end of the Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026. The most recent data shows a 14% probability on Polymarket and 21% on Frenzy Capital. Recent reports indicate that the US is pivoting back to sanctions, which may slightly increase the odds of an official suspension announcement, but the overall trend and lack of official statements keep the probability low.
While there are reports of a tentative deal that could end the blockade [apnews.com](https://apnews.com/article/trump-iran-straithormuz-israel-gaza-mideast-f4c225f6667d9fd171616304701825a0), no official U.S. announcement has been made, and recent market probabilities have declined due to lack of official signals. Pentagon statements suggest the blockade is sustainable, and high oil prices reflect continued supply concerns. Given the absence of a confirmed agreement and the short time window, the probability remains low but slightly above prediction market levels due to diplomatic activity.
Current market odds for a US announcement ending the Iranian blockade by August 22 are low, with limited recent official statements and ongoing military/economic pressure.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
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Despite some recent upticks in market odds, the probability of a US announcement ending the Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026 remains low at about 14%. There has been no official US government announcement signaling an end or suspension of the blockade, and recent official communications have focused on unrelated topics. Additionally, Iran's firm stance on not reopening the Strait of Hormuz without concessions and the US's indication that it can maintain the blockade indefinitely further reduce the likelihood of an imminent announcement ending the blockade.
The U.S. government has recently signaled an intent to maintain the naval blockade indefinitely, with officials like Secretary of War Pete Hegseth emphasizing the military's capacity to sustain the operation [cbc.ca]. Furthermore, Iran's refusal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz without significant U.S. concessions creates a diplomatic impasse that makes a near-term reversal by the U.S. unlikely [global-political-spotlight.com]. Given the absence of any official policy shift and the hardening of positions on both sides, the probability of a qualifying announcement before the August 31 deadline is low.
The current Polymarket odds for the US announcing the end of the Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026, are at 23%. This aligns with recent trends showing a significant decline in probability due to the absence of any qualifying US government announcement and the continued economic pressure on Iran. The US has signaled its ability to maintain the blockade indefinitely, and there are no recent official statements indicating a change in policy.
The probability of a U.S. announcement ending the Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026, is currently low, as reflected in the Polymarket odds at 32% [global-political-spotlight.com](https://www.global-political-spotlight.com/articles/polymarket/briefs/odds-of-u-s-declaring-end-to-iran-blockade-fall-sharply-iran-s-aug-10-stance-and-lack-of-u-s-policy-signals-weigh-202608). Iran's August 10 statement that it will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz without U.S. concessions indicates a continued impasse [global-political-spotlight.com](https://www.global-political-spotlight.com/articles/polymarket/briefs/odds-of-u-s-declaring-end-to-iran-blockade-fall-sharply-iran-s-aug-10-stance-and-lack-of-u-s-policy-signals-weigh-202608). Additionally, recent U.S. government communications have not signaled any move to lift the blockade [global-political-spotlight.com](https://www.global-political-spotlight.com/articles/polymarket/briefs/odds-of-u-s-declaring-end-to-iran-blockade-fall-sharply-iran-s-aug-10-stance-and-lack-of-u-s-policy-signals-weigh-202608), and U.S. officials have emphasized the ability to maintain the blockade indefinitely [cbc.ca](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/hegseth-us-blockade-iran-9.7306636).
As of August 15, 2026, Polymarket odds are at 14% with a weekly decline, no qualifying US announcement, and US signals to keep the blockade indefinitely.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
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As of mid-August 2026, no official joint announcement has been made by the US and Iran to extend the 60-day negotiation period, and persistent gaps on core issues remain unresolved. Market data from Polymarket and Lines.com indicate a low probability (around 13-18%) of extension, reflecting the absence of mutual consent and ongoing disagreements. While the MOU allows for extension by mutual consent, the lack of public, official statements and conflicting signals from both sides make extension unlikely before the August 20 deadline.
As of mid-August 2026, with the deadline approaching on August 20, there has been no official joint announcement from the United States or Iran regarding an extension of the 60-day negotiation period. Reports indicate that while there may be some consensus on maintaining a ceasefire, there are no active, high-level talks to extend the formal negotiation framework, and both sides remain deadlocked on core issues like nuclear enrichment and sanctions relief.
The base rate for diplomatic negotiations being extended is low, especially given the historical context of US-Iran relations. The lack of official statements or announcements from either side as of mid-August 2026, combined with persistent gaps on core issues and conflicting signals, further reduces the likelihood. The Polymarket crowd's 13% probability and the positioning at 87.5% on 'No' align with this assessment.
unparseable forecast JSON
While there has been some recent optimism, the lack of a joint public announcement, persistent core issues, and market positioning lean towards a lower probability.
Mean of 4/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 4/6 valid model forecasts.
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Current prediction markets show a low probability (around 7.7%) that Bitcoin will dip to $50,000 in August 2026, reflecting market sentiment and recent price trends. Given Bitcoin's volatility and recent price levels, a dip to $50,000 is possible but unlikely within the month. The low trading volume on this specific market also suggests limited confidence in such a dip.
Current market data from [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-dip-to-50k-in-august-2026) indicates a low probability of approximately 7.7% for Bitcoin hitting $50,000 in August. Given that we are already mid-month and Bitcoin has maintained levels significantly above this threshold, a drop to $50,000 would require a major, unexpected market shock, which is statistically unlikely based on current volatility trends.
The market odds on Polymarket suggest a 7.7% chance of Bitcoin dipping to $50,000 in August. Given that this is a speculative market and the odds are relatively low, it's reasonable to adjust slightly upwards to account for potential market inefficiencies and the possibility of significant price volatility in cryptocurrencies. The base rate for such a dip is low, but not zero, considering the historical volatility of Bitcoin.
The current Polymarket odds for Bitcoin dipping to $50,000 in August 2026 stand at 7.7% [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-dip-to-50k-in-august-2026), reflecting aggregated trader expectations based on Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle low prices. This level aligns with implied volatility and recent market sentiment, and no strong fundamental or technical indicators suggest a sharp drop to $50k is likely in August. The resolution is strictly based on Binance data, which is well-tracked and reliable.
The Polymarket market for Bitcoin dipping to $50,000 in August currently has a 7.7% probability, based on its resolution criteria tied to Binance 1-minute BTC/USDT candle lows.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Polymarket odds for this exact question are 39.5% as of Aug 15, 2026, reflecting real-money trader consensus. The market for a dip to $62,500 in August is at 90.5%, suggesting a $60,000 dip is less likely but still plausible given Bitcoin's volatility. Historical base rates for such a large drawdown (~10% from current levels) in a month are moderate, and the remaining half-month provides limited time for a sharp move.
Current prediction markets on Polymarket show a 39.5% probability that Bitcoin will dip to $60,000 in August 2026 based on Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle lows. This reflects moderate market skepticism about such a dip, considering Bitcoin's historical volatility and recent price trends. Given the lack of strong bullish or bearish catalysts specifically for August 2026, this probability seems reasonable.
The current market probability on [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-dip-to-60k-in-august-2026) reflects a 39.5% likelihood of Bitcoin hitting the $60,000 threshold during August 2026. Given the volatility of cryptocurrency markets and the specific requirement for a single 1-minute candle to touch this price, the probability remains moderate as traders weigh current price action against potential downward pressure.
Polymarket's prediction markets often have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. The market for Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 in August shows 61.5% odds, which is a significant indicator. Additionally, the market for Bitcoin dipping to $62,500 in August shows 90.5% odds, suggesting a high likelihood of Bitcoin trading below $62,500, which increases the probability of it dipping to $60,000.
Bitcoin's current price is around $61,000, and volatility is typical for this asset class [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-dip-to-60k-in-august-2026). Historical price movements and market structure suggest a moderate likelihood of a dip to $60,000 within a month. The Polymarket implied probability of 39.5% may be low given Bitcoin's tendency for sharp downward moves during consolidation periods.
Polymarket currently has a 39.5% probability for Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 in August, and considering the context of other related markets, this is a reasonable estimate.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
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Current WTI crude oil prices are around $81 per barrel with elevated volatility due to geopolitical tensions, particularly U.S.-Iran conflicts and Strait of Hormuz constraints. The EIA projects Brent crude averages near $85 for Q3 2026, indicating some upward pressure but not a strong consensus for $90. Market-based probabilities from Polymarket and PredictMarketCap suggest roughly a 27-29% chance of hitting $90 in August 2026, which aligns with current fundamentals and geopolitical risks.
WTI crude oil is currently trading near $81 per barrel, and while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and supply constraints provide upward pressure, reaching $90 would require a significant supply shock or demand surge. Market sentiment on prediction platforms like [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-august-2026) and [prediction.worldstreetgold.com](https://prediction.worldstreetgold.com/local/what-will-wti-crude-oil-wti-hit-in-august-2026) reflects a probability in the 27-31% range, suggesting that while a spike is possible, it is not the base case scenario given current EIA projections for Q3 2026.
The current market price for WTI Crude Oil is around $81 per barrel, with projections for Q3 2026 averaging near $85 per barrel. Geopolitical tensions and supply constraints could drive prices higher, but significant volatility and uncertainty remain. The base rate for such price movements is adjusted based on current market conditions and expert projections.
Current WTI prices are near $81 amid elevated volatility driven by geopolitical tensions involving U.S.-Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz transit constraints [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-august-2026). The EIA projects Brent averages near $85/barrel for Q3 2026, with potential for higher peaks due to supply tightness [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-wti-reach-95-in-august-2026). Polymarket odds for WTI hitting $90 in August 2026 are around 27.5%, reflecting market sentiment [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-wti-reach-90-by-august-10-2026). Given these factors, including strong refinery runs, export demand, and inventory levels below five-year averages, a breakout above $90 is possible but not highly probable.
WTI traded near $81 on August 13, 2026, with geopolitical disruptions as a key driver. While EIA projects Brent around $85 in Q3 2026, there are uncertainties like OPEC+ adjustments and Asian demand.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Current WTI price near $81 on Aug 13, 2026, with strong geopolitical supply risks (U.S.-Iran tensions, Strait of Hormuz) and below-average inventories, creating upside potential. However, reaching $95 requires a sustained 17%+ spike in the remaining ~2 weeks of August. Historical crude volatility and base rates (monthly high exceeding 17% above start around 15-20% of the time) suggest moderate probability. Market odds on Polymarket are ~14%, but given elevated geopolitical risk and tight fundamentals, I lean slightly higher at 18%.
Current market data and prediction markets assign roughly a 14% probability that WTI crude oil will hit $95 or higher in August 2026. Prices are currently around $81 per barrel with ongoing geopolitical risks and supply constraints, but $95 is a significant increase and not highly probable given current trends and forecasts.
Current market sentiment and EIA projections suggest WTI crude prices are expected to remain well below the $95 threshold, with projections hovering around $85 per barrel for Q3 2026. While geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Strait of Hormuz provide potential for volatility, there is currently no strong fundamental catalyst to drive prices to $95, leading to a low probability estimate consistent with current market pricing.
The current market price for WTI Crude Oil is around $81 per barrel, with projections for Q3 2026 averaging near $85 per barrel. The dominant drivers for price movements include geopolitical disruptions, particularly the U.S.-Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz transit constraints. While there is potential for price spikes due to these factors, the base rate for such significant increases is relatively low, and the market consensus reflects a 13-14% probability of reaching $95.
WTI would need to rise over 17% from current levels to hit $95, which is unlikely under baseline conditions. However, recurring geopolitical risks in the Middle East, particularly around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, introduce meaningful tail risk. Forward market projections and current trading probabilities suggest a low but non-negligible chance of reaching $95.
Current WTI price is near $81, with geopolitical disruptions (U.S.-Iran conflict, Strait of Hormuz) as a key driver. EIA projects Brent near $85 in Q3 2026, but a significant jump to $95 in August is uncertain.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Based on current prediction market odds (6% on Polymarket) and the broader economic context of a Fed that has been easing or holding, the chance of a 25 bps hike at the September 2026 meeting is very low. No major inflationary surprises or hawkish shifts have emerged, so I estimate a 6% probability, consistent with market pricing.
Prediction markets like Polymarket, which aggregate the collective wisdom of traders with real money at stake, currently assign about a 6% probability to a 25 bps rate increase after the September 2026 Fed meeting. Given the strong consensus and the Fed's recent cautious approach to rate changes, the likelihood of an increase is low but not zero.
Current market data and economic sentiment strongly favor a rate decrease rather than an increase for the September 2026 FOMC meeting. Prediction markets like Polymarket consistently price the probability of a 25 bps increase at approximately 6%, reflecting a strong consensus that the Federal Reserve is more likely to cut or maintain rates given current economic conditions.
Prediction markets currently imply a live probability of approximately 6.0% for the Fed to increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting. This low probability is likely due to the current economic conditions and the Fed's recent statements indicating a cautious approach to rate hikes. The key factors include the Fed's historical rate decisions, current economic indicators, and the low liquidity and conviction in the prediction markets.
Prediction markets such as Polymarket, which aggregate real-money trades and have a strong historical accuracy, currently assign a 6.0% probability to a 25 bps Fed rate increase in September 2026. This reflects the collective assessment of informed traders reacting to macroeconomic data and Fed guidance. Given the robust track record of such markets near resolution dates, this serves as a well-calibrated estimate.
Polymarket traders currently assign a 6.0% probability to the Fed increasing interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Prediction markets aggregate trader beliefs and currently show near-certainty for a 25 bps rate cut, with the 'no change' outcome trading below 1%. Given the market's liquidity and proximity to the September 2026 meeting, the probability of no change is extremely low, but not zero due to residual uncertainty. I assign a 2% chance to reflect the overwhelming consensus for a cut.
Current prediction markets show a roughly even split with a slight lean towards no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting, reflecting uncertainty given the long time horizon and potential economic developments. The Federal Reserve's decisions depend on inflation, employment, and growth data leading up to the meeting, and while some markets show strong conviction for a 25 bps decrease, the no change outcome still holds a significant probability.
The market for the September 2026 FOMC meeting shows significant uncertainty, with prediction markets reflecting a split between a 'no change' scenario and potential rate adjustments. Given the long time horizon until September 2026, economic conditions such as inflation trends and labor market data remain highly volatile, making a definitive 'no change' outcome less certain than the current market sentiment might suggest.
Prediction markets show mixed signals, with one source indicating a 100% chance of a 25 bps decrease [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-september), while another shows a 55.5% chance of a 25 bps increase and 39.5% chance of no change [prededge.com](https://prededge.com/markets/finance/61785150-will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-september-2026-meeting). The implied probability from Polymarket is 56% for no change [tomorrowodds.com](https://tomorrowodds.com/q/will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-september-2026-meeting-615). Given the uncertainty and the range of probabilities, a mid-point estimate of 55% seems reasonable.
Prediction markets such as Polymarket are currently pricing the probability of no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting at 74% [polyrama.io](https://polyrama.io/markets/will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-september-2026-meeting-615), reflecting trader consensus based on available economic signals and Fed guidance. While odds have fluctuated over time, the current high implied probability suggests a strong market expectation for rate stability by that date. Given the depth of trading volume ($7.6M) and the reliability of Polymarket as a forecasting platform, this serves as a well-informed baseline for the true probability.
Market odds from Polymarket and PredEdge show varying probabilities, and Fed decisions are influenced by economic data, leading to a moderate probability.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.