timeout after 30000ms
Despite a U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding signed in June 2026 and some recovery in transit volume, recent drone attacks and raised threat levels have hindered a full return to normal traffic levels in the Strait of Hormuz. The 7-day moving average of transit calls has not yet reached the threshold of 60, and ongoing security and administrative issues continue to pose risks. Given these factors, a return to normal traffic by August 31, 2026, seems unlikely but not impossible.
Despite a June 2026 memorandum of understanding, recent drone attacks on commercial vessels have led the Joint Maritime Information Center to maintain a 'Substantial' threat level. Given the persistent security risks and the volatility observed in transit volumes, it is unlikely that the 7-day moving average of transit calls will reach the required threshold of 60 by the end of August 2026.
The Strait of Hormuz has experienced significant disruptions due to the 2026 crisis, with transit volumes dropping and threat levels remaining high. While there was a brief recovery in June 2026, subsequent attacks and ongoing demining operations have stalled progress. The resolution criteria require a 7-day moving average of at least 60 transit calls, which seems unlikely given the current instability and the short timeframe remaining.
As of July 21, 2026, the Strait of Hormuz has not returned to normal traffic levels despite a brief recovery to 78 ships on June 24. Subsequent attacks on commercial vessels and ongoing demining operations have kept the maritime threat level high. The Polymarket prediction market prices 'Yes' at 14¢, implying a 14% chance of resolution [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.copilot.markets/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-august-31-20260702154212320), which aligns with current conditions and recent setbacks.
The market has a 7% chance as per Manifold data, considering ongoing disruptions like drone attacks and unresolved issues post-crisis.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
With only ~10 days until the July 31 deadline, the 7-day moving average of transit calls would need to rise sharply from current depressed levels to reach the 60 threshold. No evidence of a rapid normalization exists, and Polymarket odds are at 1%, reflecting the extreme unlikelihood. A sudden diplomatic breakthrough could theoretically help, but the lag in shipping data makes a recovery within the window nearly impossible.
Current market data and expert analysis indicate a near-even chance that Strait of Hormuz traffic will return to normal levels by July 31, 2026. The probability is influenced by ongoing U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks, naval activity, and economic pressures on shipping routes. The 46% probability reflects a balanced view where a diplomatic breakthrough could restore traffic, but persistent tensions and naval disruptions could keep traffic suppressed.
The market for a return to normal traffic levels in the Strait of Hormuz is currently hovering near a coin flip, reflecting significant uncertainty regarding geopolitical de-escalation. While economic pressures incentivize a return to standard shipping routes, the persistence of regional tensions and the reliance on diplomatic breakthroughs suggest that a sustained recovery to the 60-call threshold is slightly less likely than the status quo of suppressed traffic continuing through July 31.
The current market probability is 46%, indicating a nearly even chance. The key factors include ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations, which could lead to a reduction in naval harassment and improved transit volumes. However, the current environment of elevated tensions and U.S. naval presence could also prevent a return to normal traffic levels.
The market-implied probability from [lines.com](https://www.lines.com/prediction-markets/politics/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31) suggests a 46% chance of YES, based on IMF Portwatch publishing a 7-day moving average of at least 60 transit calls before July 31, 2026. The outcome hinges on diplomatic progress between the U.S. and Iran, naval activity, and shipping rerouting decisions. Current data and thin market volume indicate near-even odds, with sensitivity to geopolitical developments.
The market currently prices a 46% chance, with key factors including the 60 transit call threshold and Iran-U.S. diplomatic dynamics.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
empty response
Given the requirement of a continuous 14-day period without qualifying US military action against Iran by July 24, and the fact that as of mid-July 2026, active US-Iran military exchanges have been ongoing with no current ceasefire window in progress, the probability of such a ceasefire completing by the deadline is very low. The structural US policy of maximum pressure and lack of diplomatic channels further reduce the likelihood. Market data and expert analysis also suggest probabilities around 10-13%, supporting this low estimate.
The market requires a 14-day period of no qualifying US military action against Iran to conclude by July 24, 2026. Given that recent reports confirm ongoing exchanges of strikes as of July 18, 2026, it is mathematically impossible for a new 14-day window to begin and complete before the July 24 deadline. The only path to 'Yes' would be if a 14-day window had already been in progress and completed, which is contradicted by the active nature of the conflict.
The analysis suggests that the only path to a 'Yes' resolution is if a 14-day ceasefire window was already in progress as of July 15, 2026, and continues uninterrupted until July 24, 2026. Given the current geopolitical context, the lack of active diplomatic channels, and recent military actions, this scenario is highly unlikely. The market-implied probabilities and expert analyses support a low probability of this outcome.
As of July 21, 2026, the market-implied probability of a 14-day ceasefire between the US and Iran by July 24 stands at 8.5% [cryptoslate.com](https://cryptoslate.com/predictions/market/us-x-iran-effective-ceasefire-date/). Recent reports confirm ongoing US-Iran military exchanges as of July 18, resetting the 14-day clock and making a timely ceasefire highly unlikely [cryptoslate.com](https://cryptoslate.com/predictions/market/us-x-iran-effective-ceasefire-by-2-week-pause/). The only path to 'Yes' requires a ceasefire already in progress since before July 15, which is not supported by current evidence. Structural factors like the lack of diplomatic channels and Trump's maximum pressure policy further reduce the likelihood [questflow.ai](https://next.questflow.ai/artifact/6a5b257588f388f9ed1cb4ff/detail).
No active ceasefire window existed before July 15, 2026, and ongoing hostilities make a 14-day continuous no-action period by July 24 impossible.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
The June 14 MOU set a 60-day negotiation window ending August 13, but the current US-Iran conflict has escalated dramatically with 10 consecutive nights of US strikes, Iranian retaliatory attacks on Kuwait and tankers, and Houthi blockades. This active warfare makes it extremely unlikely that both sides will sign a final nuclear deal by August 18. While the MOU framework exists, the political will and security conditions for a final agreement are absent, and the conflict shows no signs of de-escalation. Base rates for finalizing major diplomatic deals during active hostilities are very low.
While the US and Iran have initiated a formal negotiation process with a memorandum of understanding and a 60-day window to finalize a deal, ongoing regional conflicts and recent escalations in hostilities, including US airstrikes and Iranian retaliations, reduce the likelihood of a timely final agreement. The complexity of the nuclear program restrictions and the need for concrete, measurable benchmarks further complicate reaching a final deal by August 18, 2026. However, the existence of a formal negotiation framework and prior diplomatic engagement provide some chance of success within the timeframe.
As of July 21, 2026, the United States and Iran are engaged in an active, escalating military conflict, with the US conducting its 10th consecutive night of airstrikes against Iranian targets. This environment of direct kinetic warfare and mutual retaliatory attacks is fundamentally incompatible with the diplomatic environment required to finalize a complex nuclear agreement by the August 18 deadline. The breakdown of the June 14 memorandum of understanding into open hostilities makes a peaceful, negotiated final deal within the next four weeks highly improbable.
The US and Iran have agreed to a 60-day window to negotiate a final deal, but the current escalation in military conflicts and retaliatory strikes between the two countries suggests significant obstacles to reaching an agreement. The recent US strikes on Iran and Iran's retaliatory actions indicate a high level of tension, which may hinder diplomatic progress. Additionally, the US has released a 14-point document outlining provisions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and easing financial restrictions, but the ongoing military actions cast doubt on the likelihood of a final deal by August 18, 2026.
The June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding initiated a 60-day window for negotiations toward a final nuclear deal, which would expire around August 13, 2026, just before the August 18 resolution date. However, recent developments indicate significant escalation rather than diplomatic progress: the U.S. has conducted 10 consecutive nights of strikes on Iranian targets [aljazeera.com](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/21/us-launches-tenth-consecutive-night-of-attacks-on-iran), and Iran has retaliated with attacks on U.S. assets in Kuwait and commercial shipping [aljazeera.com](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/7/21/iran-war-live-us-launches-10th-night-of-strikes-tehran-attacks-kuwait?traffic_source=rss). These hostilities strongly undermine the prospects for a finalized, substantive agreement by August 18. While a preliminary agreement was reached in June [cnn.com](https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/17/middleeast/us-iran-war-mou-text-intl), the current trajectory suggests it has broken down. Given the ongoing military conflict, the probability of a mutually signed, qualifying final deal—meeting the required nuclear restrictions—by the deadline is very low.
The US-Iran memorandum of understanding from June 14, 2026, provides a 60-day window ending around mid-August for technical negotiations, but the ongoing Iran war (as of July 21, 2026) could disrupt diplomatic progress, making a final deal by August 18 uncertain.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
The question requires only a momentary spike to $67,500 on a single 1-minute candle, which is a low bar. Current prediction market odds range from ~25% to ~80% across different platforms, with the most specific market (predictmarketcap.com) at 24.5%. Given Bitcoin's historical volatility and the remaining ~10 days in July, a 5-10% intraday move from current levels is plausible but not guaranteed. I estimate a 35% chance, balancing the low threshold against the limited time and mixed market signals.
Current prediction markets, which aggregate diverse market participant views and real-time data, assign about a 24.5% chance that Bitcoin will reach $67,500 in July 2026. Given Bitcoin's historical volatility and recent price trends, this moderate probability reflects both the challenge of reaching this level and the possibility of a price surge within the month.
Market sentiment on prediction platforms like Polymarket and Ominari shows significant variance, with probabilities ranging from 24.5% to 40% [polymarket.com, ominari.com]. Given that we are late in the month of July 2026, the window for Bitcoin to hit this price threshold is closing, and current market volatility must be sufficient to bridge the gap to $67,500.
Bitcoin's price is highly volatile and can be influenced by various factors such as market sentiment, regulatory news, and macroeconomic trends. Given that a similar market on Polymarket shows a 59% chance of Bitcoin reaching $67,500 in July, and considering the historical volatility and potential for significant price movements, a probability of 55% seems reasonable. The current market conditions and the potential for bullish trends in the cryptocurrency market also support this estimate.
While Bitcoin has previously traded near or above $67,500, it has not consistently held that level. The remaining time in July 2026 allows for potential volatility, but recent price action and prediction market odds suggest moderate uncertainty. Adjusting for base rates of monthly price movements and implied market probabilities, a 35% chance balances plausibility and current momentum.
Based on the provided market data, Polymarket shows 24.5% and OMINARI 6%, but considering Bitcoin's price volatility and historical trends, an independent estimate is made. Key factors include the resolution criteria (Binance 1-minute candles) and market probabilities.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Based on Polymarket odds of 12.4% and Myriad odds of 16% for Bitcoin reaching $72,500 in July, and with only 10 days remaining in the month, the probability is low but non-negligible. Historical Bitcoin volatility suggests a ~10% move in 10 days is possible but not likely, consistent with market-implied probabilities around 12-16%.
Current prediction markets, such as Polymarket, assign about a 12.4% chance that Bitcoin will reach $72,500 in July 2026 based on Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle data. Given Bitcoin's historical volatility and current market trends, this low probability reflects the challenge of hitting this specific high price within the month. Without strong bullish catalysts or market momentum, the probability remains low but not negligible.
Current market data from [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-reach-72pt5k-in-july-2026) indicates a probability of approximately 12.4% for Bitcoin reaching $72,500 in July 2026. Given that there is only about one week remaining in the month and the price has not yet hit this threshold, the likelihood of a significant upward volatility spike to reach this level is relatively low.
The current market odds on Polymarket suggest a 14% chance of Bitcoin reaching $72,500 in July 2026. This is consistent with the observed market sentiment and recent trading data. The probability is adjusted slightly to account for potential volatility and historical price movements.
Bitcoin's price on Binance BTC/USDT reached or exceeded $72,500 during a 1-minute candle in July 2026, satisfying the resolution criteria. The event has already resolved 'Yes' on Myriad, confirming the price threshold was met [myriad.markets](https://myriad.markets/events/btc-highs-in-july-2108ac54).
Polymarket markets currently indicate around 12.4% to 14% chance, considering the Binance 1-minute candle resolution criteria for July 2026.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
As of July 21, 2026, Bitcoin is trading well below $75,000, and multiple prediction markets (Polymarket, Orrery, Kresmion) show consensus odds of only 2–7% for this event in July. With only 10 days remaining in the month, a surge of over 20% to hit $75,000 on a single 1-minute Binance candle is extremely unlikely given current market conditions and lack of major catalysts. The low market-implied probabilities and short time horizon justify a very low estimate.
Current market odds from multiple prediction platforms range between 2% and 7%, indicating low market confidence that Bitcoin will reach $75,000 in July 2026. Given Bitcoin's historical volatility and the high price target relative to recent trends, a low probability is reasonable. The event depends solely on Binance BTC/USDT price data, and no recent bullish catalysts suggest a significant surge to $75,000 within the month.
With only about 10 days remaining in July 2026, the probability of Bitcoin reaching $75,000 is low given current market sentiment and the lack of significant upward volatility. Prediction markets like [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com) and [kresmion.com](https://kresmion.com) consistently price this outcome at a very low probability, reflecting the difficulty of achieving such a price target in the remaining time frame.
The market odds from multiple sources (Polymarket, Orrery, Kresmion) consistently show a low probability of Bitcoin reaching $75,000 in July 2026, ranging from 2% to 7%. These markets aggregate predictions from traders and are often well-calibrated, suggesting a low likelihood of this event.
Current prediction market odds on Polymarket, Kresmion, and Orrery consistently show a 4.3% to 3% probability of Bitcoin reaching $75,000 in July 2026, based on Binance BTC/USDT one-minute candle highs. These markets aggregate informed trader expectations and reflect low confidence in a near-term surge to that level, given Bitcoin's current price trajectory and volatility patterns. The resolution is strictly tied to Binance data, minimizing ambiguity.
Market probabilities for Bitcoin reaching $75,000 in July are around 2-7%, and the resolution depends on a specific Binance 1-minute candle condition.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
The MOU was signed in mid-June 2026 with a 60-day window for technical negotiations, and as of late June, talks in Switzerland have seen frictions but Iran has returned after temporary walkouts, indicating a continued commitment to the process. The market price on Polymarket (~20.5% implied probability) reflects a low but non-zero chance, and the strict definition of a qualifying announcement (a definitive, official, unconditional termination) sets a high bar that temporary protests or walkouts do not meet. Given the strategic value of the MOU for Iran (sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz reopening) and the short remaining time until July 31, a formal withdrawal is unlikely but not impossible if talks completely break down.
The recent memorandum of understanding signed on June 14, 2026, established a 60-day negotiation window, which extends through the end of July. While there have been tensions and temporary walkouts by Iranian officials, no official, clear, and unambiguous announcement of withdrawal has been made. Market data and expert assessments suggest a low probability (around 20%) that Iran will formally announce withdrawal by July 31, as Iran can continue to participate nominally while slowing or complicating talks without triggering a formal exit.
While Iran has shown frustration and engaged in temporary walkouts, there is no strong evidence of a definitive, official, and unconditional withdrawal from the MOU process. The high bar for a 'Yes' resolution—requiring a clear, non-contingent, and official declaration of termination—makes a 'No' outcome more likely, as Iran typically prefers to maintain diplomatic leverage through continued, albeit difficult, participation [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-announces-withdrawal-from-mou-negotiations-byptptpt-20260622191732319).
The base rate for such announcements is low, given the strategic importance of the negotiations. Recent temporary withdrawals and frictions over implementation timelines suggest ongoing tensions, but no clear indication of an imminent formal withdrawal. The market probabilities also reflect a low likelihood of a withdrawal announcement.
Iran has shown willingness to protest within the negotiation framework but has not made a definitive exit. The requirement for an official, unambiguous announcement sets a high bar, and recent behavior suggests tactical delays rather than termination. Current market dynamics and mediation efforts support continued nominal participation.
Current market implies ~20.5% probability. Ongoing negotiations with frictions over implementation timelines, and a termination requires a clear official announcement, not just temporary withdrawal.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Multiple credible Ukrainian sources (Ukrainska Pravda, LIGA.net) report that President Zelenskyy is actively seeking to replace Syrskyi, with meetings and candidate lists. However, the General Staff officially denied on July 20 that any dismissal has occurred, stating only a presidential decree can remove him. With only 10 days until the deadline, the probability is moderate: the political will appears present, but the short window and need for a formal decree create uncertainty. The Polymarket price of ~44¢ for a July 31 departure aligns with this assessment.
Despite ongoing protests demanding Oleksandr Syrskyi's removal and President Zelenskyy's consultations with military commanders, no official announcement of Syrskyi's departure has been made as of late July 2026. The General Staff has denied dismissal reports, and the president appears cautious, seeking a suitable replacement before making a decision. Market sentiment shows a moderate chance but leans towards a later departure date, indicating uncertainty about a July 31 exit.
While the Ukrainian General Staff has officially denied reports of Syrskyi's dismissal, multiple credible media outlets, including Ukrainska Pravda and LIGA.net, report that President Zelenskyy is actively seeking a replacement and considering several candidates. Given the short timeframe until July 31, 2026, and the high-level political pressure indicated by these reports, a change in leadership remains a significant possibility despite the current official denials.
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has denied reports of Syrskyi's dismissal, stating he continues to perform his duties. However, there are reports from multiple sources that President Zelenskyy is seeking a replacement for Syrskyi, with several candidates being considered. The prediction market on Polymarket shows a 42% probability of Syrskyi being out by July 31, 2026, which aligns with the current speculation and reports.
As of July 20, 2026, the AFU General Staff has officially denied reports of Oleksandr Syrskyi's dismissal, stating he continues to serve as Commander-in-Chief [Interfax-Ukraine](https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/1186588.html). However, multiple sources including Ukrainska Pravda and LIGA.net report that President Zelenskyy is actively considering replacing him, with Kyrylo Budanov indicating 'results' following consultations [Ukrainska Pravda](https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/07/20/8044987/). The Polymarket odds assign a 42% chance to his departure by July 31, 2026, reflecting real-time trader sentiment [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/oleksandr-syrskyi-out-as-ukraines-commander-in-chief-byptptpt-20260716215007861). While no official announcement has been made, the combination of credible reports of impending change and market pricing suggests a significant but less than 50% chance of departure by the deadline.
The General Staff denied the dismissal, but there are reports of Zelenskyy seeking a replacement, and Polymarket odds for July 31 are 42%.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
As of late June 2026, front-month WTI futures are trading near $70, down sharply from Q2 peaks due to easing supply fears (US-Iran peace progress, Strait of Hormuz reopening), rising global inventories, and softening demand. Reaching $90 would require a roughly 29% surge in July, which is highly unlikely given the current bearish fundamentals and surplus expectations. While geopolitical risks could cause short-term spikes, the base rate for such a large monthly move is very low, and no current catalysts suggest a rally of that magnitude.
Current WTI futures for July 2026 are trading near $70, significantly below $90, with recent easing of geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions reducing upward price pressure. While volatility remains elevated and sudden spikes are possible, the combination of rising global inventories, softening demand, and expected surplus conditions makes a $90 high in July unlikely but not impossible.
As of late June 2026, WTI Crude Oil is trading near $70 per barrel, significantly below the $90 threshold. Market reports indicate that supply disruption fears have eased due to progress on a US-Iran peace deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, while global inventories are rising and demand is softening. Given the current price level and the bearish outlook for the remainder of July, a move to $90 would require an extreme and unexpected geopolitical shock, which is considered unlikely.
As of June 25, 2026, front-month WTI futures trade near $70, down from Q2 peaks due to rising inventories and softening demand. EIA projections suggest a return to surplus conditions, with July resolution hinging on Middle East production restarts and demand data. While volatility remains elevated, the current market price and projections suggest a significant upward move to $90 is unlikely without a major geopolitical or supply disruption.
WTI is currently trading around $70 with fundamental headwinds from rising supply and weakening demand. However, elevated volatility and potential geopolitical shifts could enable a short-term spike. Reaching $90 would require a significant supply shock, making it possible but less likely given current conditions.
As of June 25, 2026, front-month WTI futures trade near $70 with downward pressure from rising inventories and softening demand, though geopolitical risks remain. The likelihood of hitting $90 in July is moderate due to these factors.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
As of late July 2026, front-month WTI futures are trading near $70, having fallen sharply from Q2 highs above $100 due to easing geopolitical risks (US-Iran peace deal, Strait of Hormuz reopening) and rising inventories. The market is already pricing in a swift return to surplus, and the Polymarket prediction market shows a 65% probability of WTI hitting $65 in July, reflecting the strong downward momentum and bearish fundamentals. Key factors include the pace of Middle East production restarts, OPEC+ supply increases, and softening demand, all of which make a further $5 decline plausible within the remaining trading days of July.
Current market data and trading odds indicate a 65% probability that WTI Crude Oil will hit a low of $65 in July 2026. This is supported by recent price trends showing WTI futures near $70 with significant volatility and downward pressure from rising inventories, softening demand, and easing geopolitical tensions such as progress toward a US-Iran peace deal. The market expects a return to surplus conditions, making a dip to $65 plausible within the month.
unparseable forecast JSON
The current market probability is 65% [predictionninja.com](https://predictionninja.com/market/will-wti-dip-to-65-in-july-2026). WTI futures are trading near $70, down from Q2 peaks due to rising inventories and softening demand. The resolution hinges on Middle East production restarts and demand data [polymarket.copilot.markets](https://polymarket.copilot.markets/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-july-2026).
WTI is currently trading near $70, and fundamental factors such as rising inventories and OPEC+ unwind create downside risk. A drop to $65 is within plausible market volatility for July 2026, especially given trader expectations priced into prediction markets. While not certain, the confluence of bearish fundamentals and elevated volatility makes a sub-$65 intraday low moderately likely.
Front-month WTI trades near $70, with rising inventories and softening demand pressuring prices, but geopolitical risks add uncertainty. Market currently shows 65% probability, so adjust to 0.55.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Prediction markets consistently price a ~82-85% chance of no change, and the Fed has maintained a pause since late 2023 with no recent data or commentary suggesting an imminent move. The base rate of no-change decisions in the current cycle is very high (~89%), and the July meeting is not accompanied by a Summary of Economic Projections, which typically reduces the likelihood of a change. I adjust slightly above the market consensus to 0.85 to account for the possibility of a surprise cut if economic conditions deteriorate sharply, but the evidence strongly favors no change.
Current prediction markets and trading odds consistently show a strong consensus around no change in the Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting, with probabilities around 82-85%. The Federal Reserve's recent communication and market expectations suggest a stable policy stance at that time, making a rate change less likely.
Market sentiment and current economic forecasting models strongly favor a 'no change' decision by the FOMC for the July 2026 meeting. Prediction markets like [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-july-181) and [predictionninja.com](https://predictionninja.com/market/will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-july-2026-meeting) consistently show probabilities around 82-85% for this outcome, reflecting a consensus that the Federal Reserve will maintain the current target federal funds rate.
Prediction markets consistently show a high probability (82-94%) of no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting, indicating strong market consensus. The base rate for Fed rate changes is typically low, and current economic indicators suggest a cautious approach by the FOMC.
The consensus across multiple prediction markets—[predictionninja.com](https://predictionninja.com), [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com), and [polyguana.com](https://polyguana.com)—strongly favors no change in the Fed rate after July 2026, with probabilities ranging from 82% to 94%. These markets incorporate real-time trader expectations and available macroeconomic information. While not infallible, such aggregation tends to be well-calibrated, especially this far in advance. I average and slightly regress toward the mean due to market noise, arriving at 0.87 as a robust estimate.
Multiple prediction markets show high probabilities (81.8%-85%) for no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting, indicating strong market consensus.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.