The question resolves in just 8 days (by August 31, 2026). Prediction markets and models consistently assign a 1–3% probability to a leadership change by that date, reflecting strong consensus that Mojtaba Khamenei remains de facto leader despite his prolonged public absence. No credible reporting indicates his removal, detention, or incapacitation, and the IRGC’s institutional continuity makes a sudden change extremely unlikely within this short window.
Current prediction markets and expert analyses consistently assign a very low probability (around 2-3%) to a leadership change in Iran by August 31, 2026. Despite Mojtaba Khamenei's public absence and some internal uncertainties, the IRGC's strong institutional control and the regime's emphasis on continuity make an imminent leadership change unlikely within this short timeframe.
As of late August 2026, there is no credible evidence or reporting suggesting an imminent change in Iran's leadership. While Mojtaba Khamenei's prolonged public absence has fueled speculation, the IRGC remains in firm control of the state apparatus, and prediction markets consistently reflect a strong consensus for institutional continuity through the end of the year.
The prediction markets and expert analysis suggest a very low probability of a leadership change in Iran by August 31, 2026. The consensus indicates strong institutional continuity and the IRGC's dominant control, with no significant evidence of imminent leadership shifts.
Despite Mojtaba Khamenei's prolonged public absence and speculation about his health, prediction markets and expert analysis indicate strong institutional continuity. The IRGC's dominance and lack of credible challenges suggest he remains the de facto leader. Adjusting slightly above market consensus to account for uncertainty, the true probability of a leadership change by August 31 is low.
Prediction markets show low probabilities for a leadership change by August 31, with Polymarket at 2%, Octagon at 1.2%, and Predictstamp at 3%, indicating a consensus of institutional continuity.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
With only 8 days remaining until the August 31 deadline, the probability of a direct military encounter meeting the strict definition (e.g., missile strikes, artillery fire, shooting down non-munition UAVs) is very low. Recent gray-zone incidents like airspace violations and sabotage do not qualify, and US intelligence assessments point to potential Russian tests after autumn 2026, not within this window. The Polymarket price of ~4% reflects this low likelihood and aligns with the base rate of no direct NATO-Russia clashes during the Ukraine war.
Despite escalating tensions and increased 'gray zone' activities by Russia, including sabotage and airspace violations, there is strong consensus among experts and prediction markets that a direct military clash involving use of force between NATO and Russia by August 31, 2026, is unlikely. The Polymarket prediction market, which aggregates real-money bets and has a strong track record, currently prices the probability at about 8.5%. Intelligence assessments suggest Russia may test NATO's resolve with limited attacks starting in autumn 2026 or later, beyond the August deadline. NATO's preparedness and Russia's strategic calculations to avoid full-scale conflict further reduce the likelihood of a direct military encounter within this timeframe.
Despite heightened geopolitical tensions and frequent 'gray zone' provocations, a direct kinetic military clash as defined by the market criteria remains highly unlikely within the remaining few days of August 2026. Both NATO and Russia have strong incentives to avoid direct escalation that could lead to a broader conflict, and current market sentiment [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/nato-x-russia-military-clash-in-2025) and expert analysis [polymarketintel.com](https://polymarketintel.com/polymarket-traders-see-low-probability-of-nato-russia-military-clash-by-august-31-2026-despite-escalating-tensions/) suggest that such an event is not expected in this short timeframe.
The prediction market on Polymarket reflects a strong belief among traders that a direct military encounter between a NATO country and Russia is unlikely within the next 10 days, with the 'Yes' outcome trading at 0.085, implying an 8.5% probability. Despite heightened tensions and escalating 'gray zone' aggressions, expert opinions and intelligence assessments suggest that a direct clash is not imminent. The substantial trading volume and the market's track record of accuracy support this low probability estimate.
unparseable forecast JSON
Polymarket traders currently assign an 8.5% probability, and while tensions are high with gray zone activities, expert opinions suggest limited likelihood of a direct military encounter meeting the defined criteria before August 31, 2026.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
With only 8 days remaining until the resolution date and current daily transits averaging just 4 vessels (6% of pre-crisis levels), reaching a 7-day moving average of 60 requires an unprecedented and immediate surge in traffic. No ceasefire or mine clearance is in place, war-risk insurance remains prohibitive, and market odds are near 0%. A rapid normalization to 82% of pre-crisis capacity within a week is virtually impossible under these conditions.
The ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict since February 2026 has severely restricted commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with current daily transits averaging only about 4 vessels, roughly 6% of pre-crisis levels. Elevated war-risk insurance premiums, uncleared mines, and Iranian enforcement of controlled routes continue to hinder normalization. Market-implied odds and expert sources currently estimate only about a 14% chance of traffic returning to normal levels by August 31, 2026, absent a durable ceasefire and mine clearance.
Prediction markets and current data trends indicate that traffic levels in the Strait of Hormuz remain significantly below the threshold required for a 'Yes' resolution. With only a few days remaining until the August 31 deadline, there is no evidence of a rapid recovery in transit calls that would reach the 7-day moving average of 60, leading to a near-consensus expectation of 'No' among market participants.
The market odds across multiple platforms (Polymarket, Marketss, Frenzy Capital) consistently show a very low probability (0-2%) of the Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by August 31. This suggests a strong consensus among traders that the 7-day moving average of transit calls will not reach 60. The lack of recent geopolitical or logistical improvements in the region supports this low probability.
Despite minor discrepancies between platforms, prediction markets overwhelmingly price in a near-zero chance of traffic normalizing by the deadline. The 0% implied probability on major platforms like Polymarket and Marketss reflects current trader consensus based on available data from IMF Portwatch. Only Rain.trade assigns a small 2% probability, which may account for tail risks or data revisions. Given the lack of recent upward trends and high market confidence in 'No', the true probability remains very low but not zero due to potential unforeseen changes in shipping patterns or data corrections.
The market resolves to 'Yes' if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above 60 by August 31. Current market data shows the implied probability of 'No' is 100%.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
The window for a qualifying US announcement is extremely short (8 days), and recent official statements emphasize indefinite blockade continuation with no signs of a policy shift. Market odds have collapsed to 16% on Polymarket, but given the strict resolution criteria and lack of any diplomatic breakthrough or signaling, I estimate an even lower probability of approximately 8%.
Recent market data and official statements indicate a very low likelihood of a US announcement ending the Iranian naval blockade by August 31, 2026. The US has publicly stated it can maintain the blockade indefinitely, and no qualifying official announcement has been made as the deadline approaches. Market prices have sharply declined, reflecting skepticism about any imminent policy change.
With the August 31, 2026 deadline only days away, there is no evidence of diplomatic progress or official signaling that the U.S. intends to lift the naval blockade. Recent statements from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth explicitly confirm the U.S. capacity and intent to maintain the blockade indefinitely, and market sentiment has shifted sharply toward 'No' as the window for a qualifying announcement closes.
The probability is low due to the absence of any recent official statements from the US government indicating an intention to end the blockade. Defense officials have publicly affirmed the capability to maintain the blockade indefinitely, and recent market repricing reflects a consensus that no announcement is imminent. The lack of diplomatic progress and persistent tensions further reduce the likelihood of a near-term resolution.
The US government has recently affirmed its ability and intent to maintain the naval blockade on Iran indefinitely, with no qualifying official announcement of termination or suspension as of August 23, 2026. Market pricing has declined sharply due to the narrowing window and lack of policy signals, but a last-minute shift cannot be ruled out. Based on current public statements and base rates of policy reversals under similar conditions, the probability remains low but non-zero.
The market odds have fallen sharply to 16% as the August 31 deadline approaches with no qualifying official announcement, and time is running out.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
The US administration has repeatedly stated the blockade remains in full force, with Defense Secretary Hegseth saying the Navy can hold it indefinitely and Trump confirming no negotiations with Iran. The only plausible path to a qualifying announcement, a signed Iran-Oman transit route deal involving US sign-off, has not materialized and appears stalled. With about 38 days left and no official signal of a policy reversal, the probability of a clear, unambiguous US announcement ending the blockade by September 30 is low. Market odds around 28-33% may overestimate the chance given the strong administration rhetoric and lack of progress.
Current official statements from US leadership confirm the blockade remains in place with no negotiations underway, and defense officials assert the blockade can be maintained indefinitely. The deadlock between US and Iran, with each side making the other's concession a precondition, reduces the likelihood of an official announcement ending the blockade by September 30, 2026. However, ongoing discussions about transit routes and the possibility of a signed agreement provide a non-negligible chance for a resolution before the deadline.
The current geopolitical climate shows no signs of de-escalation, with the U.S. administration explicitly stating that the blockade remains in full force and that no negotiations are currently underway. Defense and Treasury officials have reinforced a commitment to indefinite enforcement and increased economic pressure, making a reversal by September 30 highly unlikely without a major, unforeseen diplomatic breakthrough.
The current market prices and expert analysis suggest a low probability of the US announcing the end of the Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026. The blockade continues without signs of near-term suspension, and defense officials have affirmed indefinite sustainment capacity. Additionally, there is a lack of verified diplomatic progress and persistent tensions over Strait of Hormuz shipping.
The U.S. has reaffirmed the blockade's continuation, with no active negotiations and strong rhetoric from top officials indicating indefinite enforcement. While a diplomatic breakthrough via the Iran-Oman route remains a theoretical path to resolution, no official progress has been confirmed. The lack of any qualifying announcement, combined with recent escalations and policy hardening, makes a formal U.S. announcement ending the blockade by September 30, 2026, unlikely but not impossible.
The market has seen a sharp repricing down due to lack of official announcements, with deadlock between US and Iran and no signed agreement on the transit route.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
The base rate for reaching comprehensive nuclear deals within short, extendable timeframes is low (e.g., the JCPOA took years). The 60-day window extended by mutual consent still leaves little time to negotiate, translate, and sign a legally binding instrument with measurable nuclear limits. Market odds near 10% and the lack of reported progress on specific enrichment caps or stockpile disposition suggest the probability is low but not zero, given that both parties have a stated incentive to avoid renewed hostilities.
The US and Iran have initiated a formal negotiation process with a written agreement and a 60-day extendable negotiation window starting mid-June 2026. However, market sentiment and recent trends show growing skepticism, with the implied probability declining by 10 percentage points recently, reflecting uncertainty about reaching a final deal by the end of 2026. The complexity of the issues, the need for concrete measurable commitments, and the political challenges on both sides reduce the likelihood of a finalized deal within the timeframe.
While the June 14, 2026, memorandum established a framework for negotiations, the history of US-Iran diplomatic relations suggests that reaching a concrete, measurable, and mutually acceptable nuclear agreement within the remaining timeframe is highly challenging. Market sentiment and current geopolitical tensions indicate that the initial optimism following the June announcement has waned, with little evidence of the substantive progress required to meet the strict criteria for a 'final deal' by year-end.
The prediction markets reflect significant uncertainty, with Polymarket showing a 10% probability and Tomorrowodds at 38%. The recent decline in odds suggests growing skepticism. The key factors include the 60-day negotiation period, the complexity of the nuclear program restrictions, and the historical challenges in US-Iran relations. The base rate for such agreements is low, and the specific evidence does not strongly support a successful outcome by the deadline.
While the June 14, 2026, agreement initiated formal talks, the requirement for a concrete, binding instrument with measurable nuclear limits raises the bar beyond previous frameworks. The declining market odds and historical fragility of such deals suggest significant hurdles remain, making resolution by December 31, 2026, possible but unlikely.
There is a 60-day negotiation period starting from the June 14, 2026, announcement, but uncertainties remain in reaching a qualifying agreement.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Based on Polymarket odds (14.5%) and the fact that a higher dip ($62.5k) is nearly certain, a further drop to $55k is plausible but less likely given the short remaining time. The market's implied probability of ~14.5% seems well-calibrated, so I adopt a similar estimate.
Market data from Polymarket shows a 14.5% probability for Bitcoin dipping to $55,000 in August 2026 based on Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle lows. This relatively low probability reflects current market sentiment and historical volatility patterns, suggesting such a dip is possible but not highly likely.
The market probability for Bitcoin hitting $55,000 in August 2026 is currently trading at approximately 14.5% on prediction platforms [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-dip-to-55k-in-august-2026). Given that the current price is significantly above this level and the month is nearing its end, the likelihood of a sudden, sharp volatility event required to reach this threshold remains relatively low.
The probability is based on the current market sentiment and historical volatility of Bitcoin. The Polymarket odds for Bitcoin dipping to $55,000 in August are 14.5%, which aligns with the base rate for significant dips in Bitcoin's price. The likelihood of a dip to $55,000 is higher than more extreme dips to $45,000 or $42,500, but lower than a more moderate dip to $62,500.
The Polymarket prediction [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-dip-to-55k-in-august-2026) currently prices the probability of Bitcoin dipping to $55,000 in August 2026 at 14.5%. This reflects aggregated trader expectations based on real-money bets, with significant volume indicating market confidence. The price would need to fall substantially from current levels (~$60,000–$65,000 range in mid-2026), making a drop to $55,000 notable but not extreme. Related markets show a gradient: 90.5% for a dip to $62,500, 1.8% for $45,000, and 0.7% for $42,500, suggesting $55,000 is within plausible volatility range but below consensus expectations for a low.
Based on the Polymarket market data, the current probability is 14.5%, and the resolution depends on Binance 1 minute candle low prices in August.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
With only 8 days left in August, Bitcoin has already reached $65k (100% market) but the $70k market sits at just 7.5%, implying current price is well below $70k. A jump to $80k would require a >15% surge in a week, which is extremely unlikely given that $80k failed in July (0.1% resolution). Polymarket odds for $70k (7.5%) and $82.5k (26.7% but inconsistent) suggest very low probability for $80k.
Market data from Polymarket indicates a 26.7% probability that Bitcoin will reach $80,000 on Binance's BTC/USDT pair during August 2026. This reflects moderate optimism given recent price trends and volatility, but the target is significantly above current levels, making it less likely than lower thresholds like $65,000 or $70,000.
Current market data from [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-reach-82pt5k-in-august-2026) indicates that the probability of Bitcoin reaching $82,500 is approximately 26.7%, while the probability of reaching $80,000 is slightly higher, as evidenced by the 48% probability for the $80,000 target. Given that the month is nearing its end and the price has already surpassed $65,000, the likelihood of hitting $80,000 depends on significant market volatility in the final week of August.
The probability of Bitcoin reaching $80,000 in August is estimated based on the market odds for similar price targets. The market odds for Bitcoin reaching $82,500 in August are 26.7% [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-reach-82pt5k-in-august-2026), and for $70,000, it is 29.5% [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-reach-70k-in-august-2026). Given that $80,000 is between these two targets, a mid-point probability is reasonable. The high probability (100%) of reaching $65,000 [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-reach-65k-in-august-2026) suggests significant upward momentum, but the lower probabilities for higher targets indicate uncertainty.
While Bitcoin has already surpassed $65,000 with near certainty and has a moderate chance of reaching $70,000, the probability declines sharply at higher price points. The market-implied probability for $82,500 is around 26.7%, and $80,000 is slightly below that threshold. Adjusting for the trend in implied probabilities across price levels, the true likelihood of Bitcoin reaching $80,000 in August 2026 is estimated at 27%.
No direct market data for Bitcoin reaching $80,000 in August, but considering related targets, it falls between lower and higher targets.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
timeout after 30000ms
Market data from Polymarket shows a current probability of about 11.5% that Bitcoin will reach $90,000 on Binance's BTC/USDT pair by the end of August 2026. Given the high volatility of Bitcoin but the significant gap from current price levels to $90,000, this low probability aligns with market expectations. The resolution depends on any 1-minute candle reaching or exceeding $90,000 during August 2026.
Current market data indicates that Bitcoin has already reached $65,000 in August 2026, but the probability of it reaching $70,000 is estimated at only 7.5% [predictmarketcap.com]. Given that $90,000 is significantly higher than $70,000 and there is less than a week remaining in August, the likelihood of such a sharp, sudden price spike is extremely low, consistent with the 0.3% probability assigned to reaching $100,000 [predictmarketcap.com].
The probability of Bitcoin reaching $90,000 in August 2026 is estimated to be 15%. This is based on the market odds for Bitcoin reaching $90,000 by the end of 2026, which is 11.5% [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-reach-90000-by-december-31-2026-113-862-581). Given that August is a shorter timeframe, the probability is slightly higher, but still relatively low compared to the likelihood of reaching $65,000 (76.5%) and significantly lower than reaching $100,000 (0.3%) [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-reach-100k-in-august-2026).
unparseable forecast JSON
No direct market data for Bitcoin reaching $90,000 in August is provided, but considering Bitcoin's price volatility and historical trends, the probability is low.
Mean of 4/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 4/6 valid model forecasts.
Ethereum has been trading well below $2,700 throughout August 2026, with recent prediction markets showing only a 3% chance of hitting $1,950 on August 18 and a 0.1% chance of reaching $2,200 in late July/early August. With only 8 days left in the month and no major catalysts, a surge of over 40% to $2,700 is extremely unlikely.
Recent prediction markets for Ethereum reaching similar or slightly lower price points in mid-2026 show extremely low probabilities (around 0.1% to 0.2%) for reaching $2,200 to $2,700 in June and late July. Given the current market sentiment and historical price trends, it is highly unlikely that Ethereum will reach $2,700 in August 2026. The price would need a significant bullish catalyst to overcome current resistance levels, which is not indicated by available data.
Ethereum has been trading significantly below the $2,700 threshold throughout the summer of 2026, with recent market data indicating that even reaching $2,200 has been highly improbable [predictmarketcap.com]. Given the current price levels and the lack of significant upward momentum in late August, it is extremely unlikely that ETH will spike to $2,700 before the end of the month [web3.bitget.com].
The current market data and predictions suggest that Ethereum is unlikely to reach $2,700 in August. The highest predicted price for August 18 is $2,000, with a 100% probability assigned to it. Additionally, the market for Ethereum reaching $2,200 in late July to early August resolved at 0.1%, indicating very low confidence in Ethereum reaching even lower prices. The base rate for such a significant price increase in a short period is also low, given the historical volatility and current market trends.
Ethereum is currently trading well below $2,700, and recent prediction markets show extremely low odds of it reaching that level in the near term. Polymarket data from early August 2026 indicates only a 0.1% chance of Ethereum reaching $2,200 by August 2, suggesting strong market consensus that large price increases are unlikely [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-ethereum-reach-2200-july-27-august-2-2026). Additionally, a June 2026 market for Ethereum reaching $2,700 resolved decisively to 'No' with 99.8% confidence [struct.to](https://explorer.struct.to/markets/will-ethereum-reach-2700-in-june-2026). Given the lack of major bullish signals and high price target, the true probability remains very low.
No direct market data indicates Ethereum reaching $2,700 in August; historical volatility and lack of strong bullish signals contribute to low probability.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Prediction markets, which aggregate trader intelligence with high volume ($9.3M lifetime), price a 25 bps hike at ~31% as of late August 2026. Base rates for Fed rate increases in a mature hiking cycle are low, and the Fed has signaled caution. Considering the market data and the likelihood of no change (~68%), a reasonable independent estimate is around 25% for a hike, accounting for upside tail risk from persistent inflation.
Prediction markets like Polymarket, which aggregate real-money bets from informed traders, currently price the probability of a 25 bps rate increase after the September 2026 meeting at about 31%. This reflects moderate skepticism about a rate hike, likely due to recent Fed communications and economic data trends suggesting a pause or cautious approach. Given the Fed's typical cautious stance and the current market consensus, a 25 bps increase is possible but not the most likely outcome.
Current prediction market data from [kresmion.com](https://kresmion.com/odds/will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-september-2026-meeting-649) indicates a 31% probability for a 25 bps rate increase. While economic uncertainty persists, the consensus among traders suggests that a rate hike is less likely than a hold or a cut, reflecting the Federal Reserve's cautious approach to monetary policy in the face of evolving inflation and GDP data.
unparseable forecast JSON
Prediction markets aggregate diverse information and have strong accuracy records, with Polymarket showing a 31% implied probability [kresmion.com](https://kresmion.com/odds/will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-september-2026-meeting-649). While recent economic signals and Fed commentary suggest rates will remain higher for longer, a 25 bps hike is not the base case. However, persistent inflation or strong GDP data could justify a hike, keeping the probability non-trivial. I adjust slightly above market price to account for tail risk and volatility, resulting in a 0.32 estimate.
As of August 23, 2026, Polymarket prices the 'Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?' at 31% YES, reflecting real-time crowd-sourced probabilities.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
As of late August 2026, prediction markets (Polymarket via Kresmion and Polyguana) price the chance of no change at about 69%. The June jobs report showed strong employment and unemployment dropping to 4.1%, reducing pressure for an immediate cut. Inflation remains above the Fed's target, and Fed officials have expressed caution about trade policy impacts. The market also has a default rule that if no FOMC statement is released, it resolves to 'No change,' adding a slight buffer. Given these factors and the market consensus, I assign a 70% probability of no rate change at the September 2026 meeting.
Recent data shows a softening labor market with payroll declines and stable unemployment around 4.1%, reducing urgency for rate hikes. However, persistent inflation pressures and some dissent within the FOMC sustain a significant chance of a 25 basis point increase. Market consensus and trading data currently price about a 69% probability of no change after the September 2026 meeting, reflecting a balance between cooling economic indicators and inflation concerns.
Current prediction market data from [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-september) and [kresmion.com](https://kresmion.com/odds/will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-september-2026-meeting-615) consistently price the probability of 'no change' at approximately 69%. While economic conditions remain fluid, the market consensus reflects a strong expectation that the FOMC will maintain current rates during the September 2026 meeting, consistent with recent trends in interest rate forecasting.
Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kresmion show a significant probability (around 69-70%) for no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting. However, recent economic data, such as the strong June jobs report and Fed officials' statements, suggest a potential for a 25 bps decrease. The base rate for no change is adjusted downward due to these factors.
Prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kresmion show consensus odds around 69% for no change in the federal funds rate after the September 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting current trader expectations based on economic data and Fed communications. While recent signals suggest a possible 25 bps cut is priced in by some markets, the dominant probability still favors holding rates steady, especially given recent strong labor data and cautious commentary from Fed officials. The resolution will depend on the official FOMC statement, which is the definitive source.
Based on current market data from Polymarket, Kresmion, and Polyguana, the probability of no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting is around 69%.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.