Given the very short remaining time (11 days) and the institutional stability of Iran's leadership transition, the chance of Mojtaba Khamenei ceasing to be de facto leader by August 31 is minimal. Prediction markets consistently show odds around 2–4%, and no credible reports indicate an imminent coup, resignation, or detention. I assign a 3% probability.
Following the assassination of Ali Khamenei in early 2026, Mojtaba Khamenei was rapidly installed as Supreme Leader, with strong institutional and IRGC backing, indicating a preference for regime stability. Despite some health concerns and limited public appearances, no credible reports suggest imminent removal or resignation by August 31, 2026. Prediction markets and expert consensus place the probability of leadership change by this date very low, around 2-4%.
As of late August 2026, Mojtaba Khamenei remains in power following his selection by the Assembly of Experts in March 2026. Given that the resolution date is August 31, 2026, there is very little time remaining for a major political upheaval or leadership transition to occur. Prediction markets consistently reflect a low probability (around 4%) for a change within this extremely short timeframe.
The recent leadership transition in Iran was rapid and backed by key institutions, indicating strong stability. Prediction markets consistently show very low probabilities (around 2-4%) for a leadership change by August 31, reflecting consensus on regime stability. Mojtaba Khamenei's installation was designed to ensure continuity, and there are no immediate signs of instability or health issues that would prompt a change.
The prediction market odds for a leadership change in Iran by August 31, 2026, are very low, with Polymarket and Predictstamp showing around 2–3% [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/events/iran-leadership-change-by), [predictstamp.com](https://www.predictstamp.com/markets/iran-leadership-change-by/). Mojtaba Khamenei was recently installed as Supreme Leader following the assassination of his father, Ali Khamenei, in February 2026, and the transition was swiftly consolidated by the Assembly of Experts and IRGC, indicating strong institutional support [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-leadership-change-by/iran-leadership-change-by-june-30-689-922). Despite limited public appearances and unverified health rumors, there is no evidence of instability or internal challenge sufficient to threaten his position by August 31.
Based on market odds and current status, the probability is low as Mojtaba remains in power with no immediate change indicators.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
The required 7-day moving average of 60 is far above any observed post-disruption level (peak 7dMA ~34, peak single day 51). With only 11 days left and current levels around 11, a rapid and sustained increase to 60 is virtually impossible. Market odds on Polymarket are ~1-2%, and the data lag means even a hypothetical surge would not be captured in time. Thus, the probability is very low, estimated at 2%.
The Strait of Hormuz traffic has been significantly suppressed due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and conflict, with current 7-day moving averages around 11 ships, far below the normal threshold of 60. Historical data since the disruption shows no sustained recovery close to the 60-ship level, and the market prices and expert analysis suggest a low probability (~7%) of traffic returning to normal by August 31, 2026. The recent US-Iran framework agreement has not yet impacted the data due to publication lags, so the market's current low probability reflects both the slow recovery and the high bar for normalization.
The current 7-day moving average of transit calls remains significantly below the required threshold of 60, hovering around 11-12 as of late July 2026 [manifold.markets]. Given that the market resolution date is August 31, 2026, and there is no evidence of a rapid de-escalation or a surge in shipping activity, it is statistically and logistically improbable for the traffic to reach the required levels within the remaining timeframe [manifold.markets].
The current 7-day moving average of transit calls is 11.1, far below the required 60. Historical data shows a peak of 33.86 in June, which is still below the threshold. Geopolitical tensions and recent attacks have kept transit numbers low, with no significant recovery observed. Prediction markets like Polymarket and Manifold reflect very low probabilities (1-4.2%) for this outcome.
The current 7-day moving average of transit calls is around 11, with the highest post-disruption peak at 33.86 (Jun 30), far below the 60 threshold. A 7-day average of 60 requires sustained daily traffic exceeding the best single day since February (51). Given the persistent disruption from the Iran-US conflict, recent attacks on August 18, and slow recovery dynamics, a rapid ramp-up to normal levels is unlikely. While Polymarket prices a 18.5% chance for a single day ≥60 by Aug 31, a 7-day average ≥60 is a higher bar, and real-time data through mid-July shows no meaningful recovery trend.
Current 7-day moving average of transit calls is around 11-16, well below 60. Ongoing geopolitical tensions and low market probabilities suggest a low chance of meeting the threshold by August 31.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
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Current data and analysis indicate that the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed due to ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Iran, with no diplomatic progress and recent attacks on shipping. The market probability is around 6.5%, reflecting the low likelihood of traffic normalizing to 60 daily transits by September 30, 2026. Given the stalled negotiations, military tensions, and limited time to clear mines and restore traffic, a return to normal traffic levels is highly unlikely within the timeframe.
The ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, characterized by a lack of diplomatic progress, a recent ship attack on August 18, 2026, and the expiration of ceasefire negotiations, makes a return to normal shipping levels (60+ daily transits) highly improbable by the September 30 deadline. With only a few weeks remaining, the logistical and security hurdles to restoring such traffic are insurmountable without a major, currently absent, breakthrough.
The current evidence strongly suggests that the Strait of Hormuz traffic will not return to normal by September 30, 2026. The ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, recent ship attacks, and stalled ceasefire negotiations indicate a low likelihood of a significant increase in transit calls. The prediction market odds of 6.5% align with this assessment, and the timeframe is too short for a meaningful resolution of the conflict or restoration of traffic.
Current data and geopolitical conditions indicate that Strait of Hormuz traffic is unlikely to reach a 7-day moving average of 60+ transits by September 30, 2026. Ongoing regional tensions, attacks on shipping, and elevated insurance costs are suppressing vessel traffic. The 7% market-implied probability aligns with a well-calibrated assessment given the lack of recent progress toward normalization.
Polymarket odds are around 6.5%, and ongoing U.S.-Iran stalemate, ship attack, expired ceasefire, and limited time make normalization unlikely.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Given the short time horizon (11 days) and the U.S. government's explicit statements about maintaining the blockade indefinitely, the chance of a qualifying official announcement by August 31 is very low. Polymarket odds of 6–9% are consistent with this assessment, and I adjust slightly downward to 4% to account for the lack of any positive signals or imminent breakthroughs.
Current prediction markets and expert analysis indicate a very low probability that the US will officially announce the end of the Iranian naval blockade by August 31, 2026. The US government has stated it can maintain the blockade indefinitely, and recent statements emphasize continued economic pressure on Iran. The market prices for announcements before August 31 are near zero, reflecting strong consensus that no qualifying announcement will occur in this timeframe.
As of August 13, 2026, the U.S. government, specifically through Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, has explicitly stated that the U.S. military has the capability and intent to maintain the naval blockade of Iran 'indefinitely' [reuters.com]. Given this recent, high-level official commitment to the policy, the likelihood of a reversal or official announcement terminating the blockade before the August 31, 2026, deadline is extremely low.
The U.S. has recently reaffirmed its commitment to maintaining the naval blockade on Iran indefinitely, with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stating that the U.S. Navy can sustain the blockade for an extended period. The prediction markets on Polymarket show very low probabilities (2-9%) for the blockade ending by August 31, 2026, reflecting the current consensus that the blockade is likely to continue.
The most recent official statement from the U.S. government, as reported by [reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-eyes-indefinite-iran-naval-blockade-oil-supply-shortfall-deepens-2026-08-13/), indicates that the U.S. intends to maintain the naval blockade on Iran indefinitely. This position, affirmed by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, suggests no imminent plans to lift or suspend the blockade. While prediction markets like Polymarket show varying probabilities, the official stance dominates the resolution criteria, which require a clear, public announcement from authorized U.S. representatives. Given the current trajectory and lack of signals toward de-escalation, the probability of a qualifying announcement before August 31, 2026, remains very low.
Recent US government statements indicate an intent to maintain the naval blockade indefinitely, and Polymarket data shows very low probability for an August 31 announcement.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
timeout after 30000ms
Recent prediction markets and trading volumes indicate a roughly 76% probability that the US-Iran ceasefire will hold through August 31, 2026. This is supported by ongoing diplomatic efforts, including Pakistan-mediated talks and a prior extension of the ceasefire by President Trump. Although tensions and proxy conflicts persist, no recent qualifying US military actions against Iran have been reported, and the market prices reflect cautious optimism for a sustained pause in direct military strikes.
Current market data and recent diplomatic trends suggest a high likelihood of maintaining a ceasefire through the end of August. While the expiration of the Islamabad Memorandum has introduced uncertainty, the absence of major escalatory military actions in recent weeks and the high confidence levels in prediction markets (e.g., [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/uk/event/us-ceasefire-against-iran-continues-throughptptpt)) indicate that both sides are currently prioritizing de-escalation or low-intensity engagement over direct, qualifying military strikes.
Recent diplomatic efforts and a confirmed pause in offensive military operations by the US against Iran suggest a high likelihood of a continued ceasefire through August 31. The market probabilities and recent statements from the US Department of Defense support this assessment.
As of August 2026, there is evidence of a recent pause in U.S. offensive military operations against Iran, with the U.S. Department of Defense confirming a two-week pause in strikes as of August 2. This satisfies the 14-day ceasefire condition required for a 'Yes' resolution. Market pricing on Polymarket reflects a 76% probability for the August 31 outcome, aligning with credible reporting and official statements. While tensions persist, no qualifying military action has occurred since the pause began, and diplomatic efforts, including Pakistan-brokered talks, continue to support de-escalation.
The US Department of Defense confirmed a pause in offensive military operations against Iran on August 2, boosting market confidence. Recent diplomatic signals, including the cancellation of planned strikes, lift expectations, though ongoing frictions persist.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
The June 14, 2026 initial agreement set a 60-day extendable negotiation period, but as of mid-August 2026 there is no public evidence of a final deal being signed. Polymarket traders price a final deal by December 31 at roughly 38% (as of July 10, 2026), reflecting genuine uncertainty. The complexity of the nuclear obligations and the history of failed negotiations suggest a significant chance of no deal, but the ongoing diplomatic process and the existence of a framework provide a non-trivial possibility.
The current market-implied probability for a final US-Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2026, is about 38%, reflecting significant uncertainty and recent decline in optimism. The June 14, 2026, memorandum and 60-day negotiation window provide a framework, but skepticism remains due to the complexity of reaching a concrete, measurable agreement that satisfies all criteria. Official statements and progress during the negotiation period will be critical, but given historical difficulties and current market sentiment, a sub-40% probability is reasonable.
While an initial agreement was signed in June 2026 [apnews.com], the subsequent negotiations have faced significant skepticism, as reflected in the declining market probabilities [tomorrowodds.com]. The complexity of reaching a final, binding agreement that satisfies the specific, measurable criteria required for this market—particularly regarding nuclear enrichment limits and sanctions relief—remains high, and the initial 60-day window has already been extended [apnews.com]. Given the historical difficulty of US-Iran diplomacy and the current market sentiment, a successful final deal by year-end is less likely than not.
The current market odds suggest a 38% chance of a final deal by December 31, 2026, but this has declined by 10 percentage points over the past week, indicating growing skepticism. The initial agreement was signed on June 14, 2026, with a 60-day extendable negotiation period. Given the complexity of the issues and the historical difficulties in US-Iran negotiations, a 35% probability seems reasonable, accounting for potential delays and political hurdles.
While the June 14, 2026 agreement initiated a structured negotiation process [apnews.com](https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-israel-war-oil-deal-june-17-2026-19652f4611b704c0a991bf1f5bc9a4b9), the requirement for a concrete, binding, and measurable restriction on Iran’s nuclear program creates a high bar. Market-implied probabilities have declined to 38% as of mid-July [tomorrowodds.com](https://tomorrowodds.com/q/us-iran-final-nuclear-deal-by-december-31-2026), reflecting skepticism. Adjusting slightly below market price due to political risks and historical precedent, I estimate a 35% chance of a qualifying deal being finalized by year-end.
The 60-day negotiation period from the June 14, 2026, agreement provides a window, but current market probabilities (38% and 18%) and the need for a qualifying instrument with specific nuclear obligations suggest a moderate chance.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Polymarket prediction markets show a 38.9% probability for Bitcoin reaching $72,500 in August 2026, with $682,369 in volume, indicating strong market consensus. The current price is around $70,000, and the $72,500 target is only 3.6% above that, making it plausible but not certain given typical monthly volatility. However, the market for $70,000 is at 29.5% and for $75,000 at 5.5%, suggesting a steep drop-off in probability above $72,500, so I adjust slightly below the Polymarket odds to 35% to account for potential overconfidence in thin markets.
Prediction markets on Polymarket currently assign about a 38.9% chance that Bitcoin will reach $72,500 on Binance at any 1-minute candle during August 2026. These markets aggregate real-money bets from many participants and have a strong track record of accuracy, making this a reliable estimate. Given the volatility of Bitcoin and the proximity of the price target to recent trading ranges, a roughly 39% probability is reasonable.
The current market probability on Polymarket for Bitcoin reaching $72,500 in August 2026 is 38.9% [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-reach-72pt5k-in-august-2026). Given that there is only about one week remaining in the month and the market reflects the collective sentiment of active traders, this probability is a reasonable estimate of the likelihood of a short-term price spike to that level.
Polymarket's prediction markets, which aggregate real money from traders, currently assign a 38.9% probability to Bitcoin reaching $72,500 in August. This is a strong indicator, as these markets have a proven track record of accuracy. Additionally, the probability of Bitcoin reaching $70,000 is 29.5%, and the probability of reaching $75,000 is 5.5%. These probabilities suggest a reasonable likelihood of Bitcoin reaching $72,500, but not a certainty.
While reaching $72,500 requires significant upside from current levels, the 38.9% market-implied probability reflects plausible bullish scenarios. Adjusting slightly upward due to Bitcoin's historical volatility and potential for short-term spikes, a 39% true probability is well-calibrated.
The Polymarket currently gives a 38.9% probability, and considering the market's aggregation of trader opinions, this is a key factor. The resolution depends on Binance 1-minute BTC/USDT candles in August.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
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Market data from Polymarket currently assigns about a 17% probability that Bitcoin will reach $75,000 on Binance during August 2026. Given the high volatility of Bitcoin but the relatively high price target, this moderate probability reflects both the potential for price spikes and the difficulty of sustaining such a high level within the month.
Current market data from prediction platforms indicates that the probability of Bitcoin reaching $75,000 in August 2026 is approximately 17%. Given that there is only about one week remaining in the month and the current price is significantly below the $75,000 threshold, a substantial and rapid upward movement would be required to trigger a 'Yes' resolution.
Prediction markets like Polymarket aggregate collective knowledge and have a strong track record of accuracy. The current odds for Bitcoin reaching $75,000 in August are around 17% on Polymarket, which is a reliable indicator. Additionally, the odds for Bitcoin reaching $70,000 are 29.5%, and for $65,000, they are 76.5%, suggesting a decreasing likelihood as the target price increases. These odds reflect the market's collective assessment of the probability.
As of August 2026, prediction markets on Polymarket assign a 17.0% probability to Bitcoin reaching $75,000 on Binance's BTC/USDT pair during August, based on real-time trading activity [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-reach-75k-in-august-2026). This reflects current trader consensus and incorporates available information on market sentiment, macro trends, and technical indicators.
Polymarket currently gives Bitcoin a 17.0% chance of reaching $75,000 in August based on their market data.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
timeout after 30000ms
Recent prediction markets show extremely low probabilities for Ethereum reaching $2,700 in the near future, with similar markets for June and early July showing near 0% chance. Current market sentiment and price trends suggest that $2,700 is unlikely to be reached in August 2026.
Ethereum has been trading significantly below the $2,700 threshold throughout August 2026, with recent market data indicating prices closer to the $1,800-$2,000 range. Given the current market sentiment and the fact that the month is nearly over, a sudden, sustained, or even momentary spike to $2,700 is highly improbable based on recent volatility patterns [coinrithm.com].
The probability is very low based on recent market data and prediction markets. Ethereum's price has been significantly below $2,700 in recent months, and prediction markets show extremely low odds for Ethereum reaching $2,700 in other timeframes. The closest market data shows Ethereum trading around $1,900 in early August 2026, which is far below the target price.
As of August 2026, Ethereum (ETH) is trading around $1,840–$1,950, significantly below the $2,700 target [coinrithm.com](https://www.coinrithm.com). Recent prediction markets for similar targets—such as a 0.1% probability for ETH reaching $2,200 in late July to early August—indicate extremely low market expectations for substantial price increases [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com). The consistent failure to approach $2,700 in recent months, combined with bearish momentum, suggests minimal likelihood of a sharp rally to $2,700 in August.
No direct markets for August $2,700 target found; previous similar markets had low odds, and no strong indicators of a surge to $2,700 in August.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
timeout after 30000ms
Market data from Polymarket and other prediction platforms currently assign about a 25% probability that WTI Crude Oil futures will hit $95 or higher during any trading session in August 2026. This reflects moderate market expectations given current trends, supply-demand dynamics, and geopolitical factors influencing oil prices. The probability is not higher due to recent price volatility and uncertainty in global economic conditions.
Current market sentiment and trading data from prediction platforms like Polymarket and Worldstreet indicate a 25% probability for WTI Crude Oil reaching $95 in August 2026. Given that we are late in the month, the likelihood of a significant price spike to this level is constrained by the remaining trading days and current market volatility levels.
The current market odds on Polymarket and Worldstreet indicate a 25% probability that WTI Crude Oil will hit $95 in August 2026. This aligns with the base rate observed in similar markets. Key factors include recent trading patterns, geopolitical tensions, and economic indicators that could drive oil prices up.
The current market-implied probability on Polymarket and Worldstreet for WTI Crude Oil reaching $95 in August 2026 is 25% [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-wti-reach-95-in-august-2026). This reflects aggregated trader sentiment and available information, including macroeconomic conditions, supply-demand dynamics, and geopolitical risks. Given the lack of major supply shocks or extreme demand surges as of mid-2026, and assuming stable production from OPEC+ and U.S. shale, the $95 level remains a moderate tail event. The 25% estimate aligns with base rates for similar oil price targets in recent prediction markets.
Current market probabilities from Polymarket and Worldstreet indicate a 25% chance, with no strong factors suggesting a significant shift.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
The consensus from high-volume prediction markets, recent FOMC divisions, and persistent inflation gives a moderate chance of a 25 bps hike, but the Fed's cautious tone and balanced data keep odds near 50/50. I assign 0.45, reflecting the slight edge toward no change as implied by the main Polymarket event and the Kresmion market's lower price.
Current prediction markets and trading data indicate a 28% probability of a 25 bps rate increase after the September 2026 FOMC meeting. The market is balanced but leans towards no change due to recent FOMC minutes showing a divided vote and a patient stance by the Fed, despite some inflationary pressures and geopolitical risks. Incoming economic data before the meeting could shift this probability, but as of now, the consensus favors stability over a hike.
Market sentiment has shifted toward a 'no change' outcome as economic data remains mixed, with recent prediction market pricing for a 25 bps hike declining from previous highs. While persistent inflation and a resilient labor market keep the possibility of a hike on the table, the Federal Reserve's current patient stance and the lack of consensus among officials suggest that maintaining the status quo is the more likely path for the September meeting.
The prediction markets are divided, with Polymarket showing a 46% chance of a 25 bps increase and a 52% chance of no change. Recent FOMC minutes and economic data suggest a balanced outlook, with persistent inflation and resilient labor markets supporting a potential hike, while the Fed's patient stance and lack of fresh projections favor stability. The incoming CPI, employment, and oil price releases through mid-September will be critical in shifting the balance.
Prediction markets such as Polymarket reflect real-time trader sentiment, with the current probability of a 25 bps hike priced at 28% [kresmion.com](https://kresmion.com/odds/will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-september-2026-meeting-649). This aligns with mixed signals from the Fed: while inflation and labor data leave room for a hike, the lack of strong consensus and the central bank's cautious tone make it less likely than not.
Polymarket prices as of Aug 19, 2026, show a 28% probability for a 25 bps increase. Key factors include a divided FOMC vote, inflation from Middle East tensions, resilient labor market, and upcoming data.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Prediction markets as of August 2026 price a ~72% chance of no change at the September FOMC meeting, reflecting mixed economic signals (strong jobs but lingering inflation) and the Fed's cautious posture. Base rates from recent years show the Fed often holds rates when uncertainty is high, and the market's implied probability is a reasonable anchor. I adjust slightly downward to 68% to account for the possibility of a small cut if data weakens, consistent with the Fed's data-dependent approach.
Current prediction markets, such as Polymarket, price the probability of no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting at about 70%. This reflects a moderate consensus that the Fed will hold rates steady, influenced by ongoing economic uncertainty and the Fed's cautious approach to rate adjustments. Given the time until the meeting and the typical Fed behavior of gradual changes, a no-change outcome is slightly favored but not certain.
Current prediction market data from [polyrama.io](https://polyrama.io/markets/will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-september-2026-meeting-615) indicates a 70% probability of no change in interest rates following the September 2026 FOMC meeting. Given that this meeting is relatively close, the market consensus reflects a stable outlook where the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its target range, consistent with typical monetary policy cycles where rates are held steady unless significant economic shocks occur.
The current prediction market odds suggest a 56-70% probability of no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting, indicating a slight lean towards no change. This reflects the uncertainty and the potential for economic conditions to evolve over the next two years. Key factors include future economic data, Fed communications, and global economic conditions.
While prediction markets reflect real-time trader expectations, they are not perfect forecasts. The 70% implied probability from Polymarket [polyrama.io](https://polyrama.io/markets/will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-september-2026-meeting-615) is a strong signal, but given the long time horizon and historical volatility in rate expectations, we adjust slightly downward to account for uncertainty. The default resolution rule favoring 'No change' provides a small upward bias. Therefore, the true probability of no change is estimated at 0.68.
As of 2026-07-10, Polymarket implied a 56% probability of no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting, with uncertainty from economic data and Fed communications.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.