With only 15 days remaining until the resolution date, there is no credible evidence that Mojtaba Khamenei has ceased to be de facto leader. Prediction markets consistently price this outcome at ~2%, reflecting the extremely short window and lack of any imminent removal reports. The base rate for sudden leadership change in Iran is very low, and no new developments suggest a change is likely in this timeframe.
Current prediction markets and expert models consistently assign a very low probability (around 2%) to a leadership change in Iran by August 31, 2026. Despite Mojtaba Khamenei's public absence and some speculation about his status, institutional continuity and control by the Revolutionary Guards remain strong, with no credible reports confirming his removal or incapacitation. The consensus among analysts and markets is that he remains the de facto leader through this period.
Current market data and expert analysis indicate a strong consensus for institutional continuity within the Iranian regime through the end of 2026. Despite speculation regarding Mojtaba Khamenei's public absence, there is no credible reporting or evidence suggesting an imminent removal or resignation before the August 31 deadline.
The current consensus among prediction markets and analysts suggests a very low probability of an Iran leadership change by August 31, 2026. The primary factors include the recent installation of Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader, which was backed by the IRGC and clerical institutions, indicating a strong preference for regime stability. Additionally, there is no credible reporting of any significant internal power struggles or public announcements of his removal or resignation.
unparseable forecast JSON
Low market odds and consensus for institutional continuity through August 31.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
The ceasefire between Israel and Iran is currently in effect with no recent qualifying military actions reported. The remaining time until August 31 is only about 15 days, which is a short window for a major air or missile strike to occur. Prediction markets consistently price the probability at 95–96%, reflecting strong confidence in continuation. While tensions could escalate, the base rate of such strikes in a brief period is very low, supporting a high probability.
Multiple prediction markets and sources currently estimate a high probability (around 90-96%) that the ceasefire between Israel and Iran will continue through August 31, 2026. There have been no recent qualifying military actions reported, and ongoing diplomatic efforts support maintaining the ceasefire. The definition of qualifying military actions is strict, and no such actions have been credibly reported to date.
Current prediction markets [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt-20260716224448963) and [polyguana.com](https://polyguana.com/market/2952493) indicate a very high confidence in the continuation of the ceasefire through August 31, 2026. Given that the date is only two weeks away and there have been no recent major escalations that meet the strict criteria for a 'qualifying military action' (such as direct, non-intercepted air or missile strikes), the likelihood of a sudden, large-scale breach is low.
The prediction markets overwhelmingly favor a 'Yes' resolution, with probabilities ranging from 91% to 96%. The base rate for ceasefires in this region is low, but the specific evidence of ongoing diplomatic efforts and the lack of recent major military incidents between Israel and Iran supports a high probability of the ceasefire continuing through August 31.
Multiple prediction markets, including Polymarket and Frenzy Capital, show high consensus on the likelihood of the ceasefire holding, with implied probabilities ranging from 91% to 96% [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt-20260716224448963). The absence of qualifying military actions—defined as direct air or missile strikes impacting territory—has persisted as of the latest reports, and neither side has initiated such actions recently. While geopolitical tensions remain, the current equilibrium and high market confidence suggest a strong likelihood of continued ceasefire through August 31, 2026.
Prediction markets show high probabilities for the ceasefire continuing, with no recent qualifying military actions reported.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
unparseable forecast JSON
Current prediction markets, which aggregate expert and crowd wisdom, assign about a 16% chance of a direct military clash between NATO and Russia by August 31, 2026. Given ongoing tensions and proxy conflicts but no direct engagements so far, the probability remains low but non-negligible. The definition excludes non-violent incidents, which have been more common, keeping the likelihood of qualifying military encounters relatively low.
While geopolitical tensions remain high, both NATO and Russia have consistently demonstrated a strong desire to avoid direct military escalation that could trigger Article 5 or a broader conflict. Prediction markets [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/nato-x-russia-military-clash-in-2025) and [polyautomate.org](https://polyautomate.org/prediction-odds/nato-x-russia-military-clash-by-december-31-2026-244) currently assign low probabilities to such an event, reflecting the high threshold required for a 'military encounter' under the market's specific definitions, which exclude common incidents like airspace violations or non-weaponized collisions.
The prediction market Polymarket currently assigns a 16.0% probability to a NATO-Russia military clash by December 31, 2026, which is the most likely timeframe according to traders. This suggests a moderate but significant risk of such an encounter occurring by August 31, 2026, as it is within the same broader timeframe. The base rate for such conflicts is low, but geopolitical tensions and historical incidents indicate a non-negligible probability.
The Polymarket prediction market for a NATO-Russia military clash by August 31, 2026, shows a 23% implied probability based on current trading prices, reflecting real-time crowd-sourced expectations [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/nato-x-russia-military-clash-in-2025). This aligns with the definition of a qualifying military encounter involving direct use of force. Recent incidents, such as the 2023 Black Sea drone takedown, did not qualify as direct military engagement, but ongoing tensions in Eastern Europe and the Black Sea region sustain risk. The market’s high trading volume and track record of accuracy lend credibility to this estimate.
Polymarket odds show a very low probability for a NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026, with 'Yes' trading at 2.8¢.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Current data shows Strait of Hormuz transits are at roughly 13-22% of pre-conflict levels, with daily throughput near 2 million DWT versus the historical 10 million average, and some days seeing nine or fewer vessel passages. To resolve YES, the 7-day moving average must reach 60 ships, which is far above current levels and would require a rapid, substantial de-escalation and restoration of shipping within two weeks. Prediction markets price this at 1-2%, and given ongoing U.S.-Iran naval tensions and fresh vessel attacks as of August 13-14, a return to normal by August 31 appears highly unlikely.
Current prediction markets, which aggregate real-money bets from informed traders, assign about a 1-2% chance that Strait of Hormuz traffic will return to normal levels (7-day average of 60 or more ship transits) by August 31, 2026. Ongoing U.S.-Iran naval tensions, recent vessel attacks, and sustained blockade enforcement have kept traffic at roughly 13-22% of pre-conflict levels, making a rapid return to normal unlikely. The market's strong track record and the large volume of trades support this low probability estimate.
Current transit levels in the Strait of Hormuz remain severely depressed at 13-22% of pre-conflict levels, with daily throughput significantly below the threshold required for a 7-day moving average of 60 ships. Given that the resolution date is August 31, 2026, and there are no signs of immediate de-escalation or a return to normal operations, it is highly improbable that the required volume will be reached in the remaining time.
The current Polymarket odds and other prediction markets indicate a very low probability of Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by August 31, 2026. Recent data shows transit levels at 13-22% of pre-conflict levels, with ongoing tensions and attacks further complicating a return to normalcy. The base rate for such a significant improvement in such a short time is extremely low, and the specific evidence supports this low probability.
Current data from IMF Portwatch shows Strait of Hormuz transits at 13-22% of pre-conflict levels, with daily throughput far below the 60-ship threshold required for resolution. Recent vessel attacks and ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions continue to disrupt traffic. Prediction markets on Polymarket, which reflect real-time trader sentiment and have a strong accuracy record, currently price the 'Yes' outcome at around 2%, aligning with the low likelihood of a rapid de-escalation and restoration of normal traffic by August 31, 2026 [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.copilot.markets/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-august-31-20260702154212320).
Current transit levels are very low due to US-Iran military escalation, and market odds for a return to normal by August 31 are extremely low, indicating a low likelihood.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
The resolution requires a 7-day moving average of transit calls in the Strait of Hormuz to reach or exceed 60 by September 30, 2026. Current traffic is likely well below normal due to ongoing geopolitical tensions, and only about 45 days remain. A sustained recovery to that level within the timeframe is possible only if significant de-escalation occurs, which seems unlikely based on the current landscape. Market odds around 14% reflect this assessment, and my estimate is slightly higher at 16% to avoid overweighting short-term sentiment.
Current market data from multiple prediction platforms consistently show a low probability (around 14%) that the Strait of Hormuz traffic will return to normal levels (7-day average of 60 or more transit calls) by September 30, 2026. This low probability reflects ongoing geopolitical tensions, security concerns, and historical fluctuations in shipping traffic through the Strait, which have not shown strong signs of returning to pre-disruption levels soon.
The market sentiment, as reflected in prediction platforms like Polymarket, consistently prices the probability of reaching the required transit threshold at approximately 14%. Given the current geopolitical tensions and the specific data requirements from IMF Portwatch, there is no strong evidence to suggest a significant recovery in shipping traffic to the specified levels before the September 30, 2026, deadline.
The current market odds across multiple sources consistently place the probability of the Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by September 30, 2026, around 14-24%. Given the consistency of these market-based probabilities and the lack of recent data suggesting a significant improvement in transit calls, the base rate for this event is low. The key factors include the historical transit call data, current geopolitical stability, and the reliability of the IMF Portwatch data source.
The consensus across prediction markets is around 14% for a 'Yes' resolution, based on IMF Portwatch data showing a 7-day moving average of 60+ ship arrivals. Given the stability of these odds and lack of recent geopolitical escalation suggesting a sudden increase in traffic, the independent estimate aligns with the market-implied probability.
Current Polymarket odds for 'Yes' are around 14%, indicating a low probability. The market resolves based on IMF Portwatch's 7-day moving average of transit calls being ≥60, which suggests a challenging threshold.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Base rates from prediction markets (6% chance for August 22) and the lack of any credible signals point to a very low probability. The US administration has publicly stated the blockade can continue indefinitely, and no official announcement ending it is expected within six days.
The US has publicly stated it can maintain the naval blockade of Iran indefinitely and has recently reimposed it after a brief lift. There is no indication of diplomatic breakthroughs or official announcements signaling an end to the blockade by August 22, 2026. Prediction markets and expert sources currently assign a low probability (around 6%) to the blockade ending by this date, reflecting the prevailing political and military stance.
Recent official statements from the U.S. government, including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, explicitly state that the U.S. intends to maintain the naval blockade of Iran 'indefinitely' [reuters.com]. Prediction markets currently assign a very low probability to a resolution by August 22, with the vast majority of market sentiment favoring a much later date, if at all [polymarket.com, frenzycap.com, lines.com]. Given the current official stance and the lack of any reported diplomatic breakthrough, an announcement by the August 22 deadline is highly unlikely.
The current market odds on Polymarket and Frenzy Capital suggest a very low probability of the US announcing the end of the Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026. The dominant market prediction is for a later resolution, with December 31 being the most likely date. Recent statements from US officials indicate a commitment to maintaining the blockade indefinitely, further reducing the likelihood of an early resolution.
The U.S. has reaffirmed its ability and intent to maintain the blockade indefinitely, with no official indications of a policy shift. While prediction markets vary, most show low odds for an announcement by August 22, and the absence of recent diplomatic progress further reduces the likelihood. Adjusting for market dispersion and official statements, a 12% probability balances the slim chance of sudden diplomatic action against the strong base rate of policy continuity.
Prediction markets show low implied probabilities for a YES by August 22, and recent US statements indicate an indefinite stance on the blockade.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Polymarket odds for this specific event have fallen sharply to 32% as of mid-August 2026, driven by Iran's refusal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz without concessions and the U.S. Defense Secretary stating the blockade can be maintained 'indefinitely' [reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-eyes-indefinite-iran-naval-blockade-oil-supply-shortfall-deepens-2026-08-13/). No qualifying U.S. announcement has been made, and recent official communications have focused on other topics [global-political-spotlight.com](https://www.global-political-spotlight.com/articles/polymarket/briefs/odds-of-u-s-declaring-end-to-iran-blockade-fall-sharply-iran-s-aug-10-stance-and-lack-of-u-s-policy-signals-weigh-202608). With only about two weeks left until the August 31 deadline, the probability of a sudden reversal is low but not impossible.
Current prediction markets, which aggregate real-money bets from informed traders, assign about an 18% chance that the US will announce an end to the Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026. Recent official statements and actions indicate the US intends to maintain the blockade indefinitely, and no qualifying announcement ending the blockade has been made. Iran's firm stance against reopening the Strait of Hormuz without US concessions further reduces near-term prospects for ending the blockade.
The U.S. government has recently reaffirmed its commitment to maintaining the naval blockade of Iran indefinitely, with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth explicitly stating that the military has the capability to continue the operation [reuters.com]. With the August 31 deadline approaching and no signs of diplomatic de-escalation or policy shifts, the probability of an official announcement ending the blockade within the next two weeks is very low, as reflected by current market sentiment [global-political-spotlight.com, worldeventtrading.com].
timeout after 30000ms
unparseable forecast JSON
The Polymarket odds have dropped sharply, with recent data showing a 32% probability as of August 8, 2026, due to Iran's stance and lack of US policy signals.
Mean of 4/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 4/6 valid model forecasts.
As of mid-August 2026, Polymarket odds for a dip to $55k are ~14.5%. Given that ~16 days remain in the month and the current Bitcoin price is likely near $62k (based on the 90.5% probability for a dip to $62.5k), a drop to $55k requires a ~11% decline. Historical monthly volatility makes this plausible but not highly likely, so I estimate a slightly lower probability of 0.12.
Prediction markets like Polymarket currently assign about a 14.5% chance that Bitcoin will dip to $55,000 or below on Binance in August 2026. These markets aggregate real-money bets from many participants and have a strong track record of accuracy, making this a reliable estimate. Given Bitcoin's historical volatility and current market trends, a dip to $55,000 is possible but not highly likely in the specified timeframe.
The probability is based on current market sentiment and trading data from prediction platforms like [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-dip-to-55k-in-august-2026) and [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-august-2026), which aggregate trader expectations. Given that the market currently assigns approximately 14.5% odds to this event, and considering the volatility of Bitcoin, this reflects the collective assessment of the likelihood of a dip to $55,000 within the remaining timeframe of August 2026.
Polymarket's prediction market currently assigns a 14.5% probability to Bitcoin dipping to $55,000 in August 2026. This market-based probability is a strong indicator, as prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. Additionally, the market for Bitcoin dipping to $62,500 in August is at 90.5%, suggesting a higher likelihood of a dip to that level, which is above $55,000. The market for a dip to $45,000 is at 1.8%, indicating a very low probability of such a steep decline. These probabilities suggest a moderate chance of Bitcoin dipping to $55,000 in August 2026.
The 14.5% market-implied probability on Polymarket [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-dip-to-55k-in-august-2026) reflects low but non-negligible risk of a sharp correction. Given Bitcoin's current price trajectory and volatility patterns, a drop to $55,000 would require a significant macroeconomic or exchange-specific shock. Absent such signals, the probability remains low but not negligible, so I estimate a 15% chance.
The market on Polymarket currently has 14.5% odds for Bitcoin dipping to $55,000 in August, based on Binance 1-minute BTC/USDT candle low prices.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
The primary Polymarket contract for a dip to $60k in all of August is trading at 39.5%, which aggregates real-money trader belief. However, the very low probabilities for narrower date ranges within August (1.7% for Aug 3-9 and 0.1% for Aug 1) suggest that most of the chance is concentrated late in the month, and that hitting $60k at any point in the month is not a foregone conclusion. Current Bitcoin price near $65k means a moderate decline is needed. Balancing the 39.5% market odds with the risk that a late-month crash does not materialize, I estimate a slightly lower true probability of 35%.
Current prediction markets on Polymarket, which aggregate real-money trader sentiment and have a strong track record of accuracy, assign about a 39.5% probability that Bitcoin will dip to $60,000 or below at any point during August 2026 on Binance. This reflects moderate market uncertainty and the possibility of a dip, but not a majority likelihood.
The current market probability on [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-dip-to-60k-in-august-2026) is 39.5%. Given that we are already past the middle of August 2026, the window for this volatility to occur is narrowing, and market participants have priced in a significant but minority chance of a dip to $60,000 based on current BTC/USDT price action on Binance.
The current Polymarket odds for Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 in August are 39.5%, which is a significant indicator. Additionally, the odds for specific dates in August are much lower (0.1% for August 1 and 1.7% for August 3-9), suggesting that the broader market is pricing in a low probability for a significant dip. However, given the volatility of Bitcoin, a 35% probability accounts for the possibility of unexpected market movements.
As of 2026-08-16, Bitcoin has not yet dipped to $60,000 in August, and market sentiment on Polymarket reflects a 39.5% implied probability of it happening by month-end [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-dip-to-60k-in-august-2026). While short-term markets for narrower windows (e.g., August 1 or August 3–9) show very low odds, those were resolved 'No' and reflect transient conditions. The broader August market aggregates trader expectations and serves as a useful base rate. Adjusting slightly for the fact that most of August remains unresolved and volatility could increase, I estimate a 40% chance of a $60,000 low occurring on Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles before September 1.
Polymarket currently has a 39.5% probability for Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 in August, and Polymarket's odds are set by traders with a strong accuracy track record.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
The Polymarket consensus for the 140-159 bucket is about 2%, and as of August 16, Musk has posted 128 tweets in the first 5 days, averaging ~25.6 per day. To stay within 140-159, he would need at most 31 more tweets over the remaining 2 days, well below his usual pace. The strong market tilt toward 180-199 (40%) suggests the most likely total is much higher, making only a 3% chance plausible.
The prediction market on Polymarket assigns only about a 2% chance to Elon Musk posting between 140-159 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026. The consensus and strongest market probabilities favor higher tweet counts, particularly in the 180-199 range (40%) and 200-219 range (26%), reflecting Musk's established pattern of high-volume posting. Given this strong market signal and historical posting behavior, the probability of the 140-159 range is very low.
Market data from [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-august-11-august-18) indicates that the 140-159 range is priced at approximately 2.5%, suggesting a very low probability of this outcome. The consensus among traders is that Musk's activity level is significantly higher, with the 180-199 range being the most likely outcome, reflecting his consistent high-volume posting habits.
The consensus on Polymarket centers around Elon Musk tweeting 160-219 times during the specified period, with the 180-199 range having the highest implied probability at 40%. The 140-159 range is significantly lower, with only 2% implied probability. This aligns with Musk's established pattern of high-volume posting.
The current market data shows that the '140-159' range has only a 2% implied probability, with trader consensus strongly favoring higher ranges—especially 180-199 (40%) and 200-219 (26%) [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musk-of-tweets-august-11-august-18). This reflects Elon Musk's recent high-volume posting behavior, which has been consistently above 160 tweets per week. Given this established pattern and the absence of signals indicating reduced activity, the likelihood of him posting only 140-159 tweets is very low.
Market consensus centers on 160-219 tweets, with 180-199 being the most probable range, indicating low likelihood of 140-159.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
As of mid-August 2026, WTI crude oil is trading below $90, and the market on Polymarket assigns a ~14.5% probability to hitting $95 during August. Reaching $95 requires an approximately 18% move from current levels near $80, which is plausible given typical volatility and geopolitical risks, but with only half the month remaining, the conditional probability is limited. Intraday volatility increases the chance of a 1-minute candle hitting that level, consistent with the market price.
Current prediction markets, which aggregate the views of many informed traders, assign about a 14.5% probability that WTI Crude Oil will hit $95 or higher in August 2026. This reflects moderate uncertainty given typical price volatility and market conditions. The market's strong track record and volume support this as a reliable estimate.
Current market sentiment and prediction platforms like Polymarket and Worldstreet indicate a low probability (approximately 14-15%) for WTI Crude Oil reaching $95 in August 2026. Given the current market conditions and the distance from the $95 threshold, there is no strong evidence to suggest a significant enough supply shock or demand surge to push prices to that level within the specified timeframe.
The current market odds on Polymarket and other prediction platforms suggest a 14-15% probability that WTI Crude Oil will hit $95 in August 2026. These markets aggregate the collective knowledge of traders and have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as the event approaches. The base rate for such high oil prices is relatively low, and the specific evidence from prediction markets supports this estimate.
The current market-implied probability on Polymarket is 14.5% [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-august-2026), which aggregates the beliefs of thousands of traders and has historically been well-calibrated, especially as events approach [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-wti-reach-95-in-august-2026). Given the lack of major supply shocks or extreme demand surges in the current environment and WTI trading around $80 in mid-2026, reaching $95 in August appears unlikely but plausible under strong upward momentum. The 14.5% probability reflects a reasonable consensus based on available information and market dynamics.
Based on available market data from prediction platforms, the current probability of WTI Crude Oil hitting $95 in August 2026 is around 13-15%, so a midpoint estimate is used.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Prediction markets consistently show a very low probability (around 6%) of a 25 bps rate increase at the September 2026 FOMC meeting. The broader market for the September decision has already resolved to a 25 bps cut, reflecting strong consensus for easing. Given the Fed's recent dovish stance and lack of inflationary pressures, a rate hike is highly unlikely. I assign a 5% probability, slightly below the market odds to account for tail risks.
Current prediction markets and crowd-sourced probabilities indicate a low likelihood of a 25 bps rate increase after the September 2026 Fed meeting, with the leading market price around 25%. This reflects expectations that the Fed will likely hold rates steady or possibly cut, given recent trends and economic conditions. The FOMC's upcoming statement and economic data will be decisive, but current market sentiment strongly favors no increase.
Current market data and consensus indicate that a rate increase is highly unlikely, with prediction markets assigning a probability of approximately 6% to a 25 bps hike. The prevailing expectation is for a rate decrease or no change, as reflected in [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-september) and [polyautomate.org](https://polyautomate.org/prediction-odds/will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-september-2026-meeting).
Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, and the current market consensus assigns a 6.0% probability to a 25 bps interest rate increase by the Fed after the September 2026 meeting. This low probability reflects the collective judgment of traders who are likely well-informed about economic conditions and Fed policy trends.
Prediction markets on Polymarket currently assign a 6.0% probability to the Fed increasing rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting, with NO trading at 92.0¢ and YES at 6.0¢ [polyautomate.org](https://polyautomate.org/prediction-odds/will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-september-2026-meeting). These markets aggregate real-money trades from thousands of participants and have historically demonstrated strong accuracy, especially as events approach [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-september). The broader context shows a strong market expectation of a rate cut or no change, not a hike.
Polymarket traders currently assign a 6.0% probability to the Fed increasing interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting, with the market pricing YES at 6.0¢ and NO at 92.0¢.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.