unparseable forecast JSON
Current prediction markets and expert analyses consistently assign a very low probability (around 2%) to a leadership change in Iran by August 31, 2026. Despite Mojtaba Khamenei's lack of public appearances and some internal power struggles, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) maintains strong control, and institutional continuity is strongly favored through this period. The markets reflect a consensus that Mojtaba remains the de facto leader, with no credible evidence suggesting imminent removal or incapacitation before the deadline.
Current market data and expert analysis indicate a strong consensus for institutional continuity within the Iranian regime through the end of 2026. Despite Mojtaba Khamenei's lack of public appearances, the IRGC appears to be effectively maintaining the current power structure, and there is no credible evidence of an imminent leadership change before the August 31 deadline.
The overwhelming consensus from prediction markets (Manifold, Polymarket, Octagon) and credible reporting suggests that Mojtaba Khamenei is likely to remain the de facto leader of Iran through August 31, 2026. Despite speculation about his health and public absence, the IRGC's control and institutional continuity strongly favor his continued leadership.
As of August 2026, prediction markets such as Polymarket, Manifold, and Octagon show a consensus probability of around 2% for a leadership change in Iran by August 31 [manifold.markets](https://manifold.markets/Mochi/iran-leadership-change-by), [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/events/iran-leadership-change-by), [octagonai.co](https://www.octagonai.co/markets/politics/politics/iran-leadership-change-by/). Despite Mojtaba Khamenei's lack of public appearances since assuming office in March 2026, credible reporting and market dynamics indicate he remains the de facto leader, with the IRGC and institutional structures maintaining continuity. No credible reports confirm his removal, death, or resignation, and the regime has attributed his absence to security concerns and injuries from a prior airstrike [octagonai.co](https://www.octagonai.co/markets/politics/politics/iran-leadership-change-by/).
Prediction markets like Polymarket and Octagon show very low probabilities for a leadership change by August 31, with consistent downward trends and strong consensus for institutional continuity.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Polymarket odds for the exact 'August 31, 2026' deadline are ~3%, aggregated from $1.2M+ volume, implying a very low near-term probability given only ~17 days remain. Base-rate intelligence suggests direct military encounters are rare and discouraged by both sides; no credible, imminent trigger is indicated in recent news. A small probability remains due to the possibility of accidental escalation or a sudden, unanticipated incident before the deadline.
Current prediction markets assign about a 23% chance of a military clash between NATO and Russia by August 31, 2026, reflecting ongoing tensions but also significant deterrence and diplomatic efforts to avoid direct conflict. The definition of a qualifying military encounter is strict, excluding many provocative but non-violent incidents, which lowers the probability. Given the geopolitical context and historical patterns, a direct military clash remains possible but not highly likely within this timeframe.
While tensions between NATO and Russia remain high due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, both sides have consistently demonstrated a strong desire to avoid direct military escalation that could trigger Article 5. Prediction markets [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/nato-x-russia-military-clash-in-2025) and [polyautomate.org](https://polyautomate.org/prediction-odds/nato-x-russia-military-clash-by-december-31-2026-244) currently reflect a low probability for such an event, as most incidents to date have been categorized as non-qualifying under the specific definitions provided (e.g., aerial harassment or drone collisions). The threshold for a 'military encounter'—requiring direct use of force—remains a significant barrier that both powers are incentivized to maintain.
The prediction market on Polymarket currently assigns a 23% probability to a NATO-Russia military clash by August 31, 2026. This estimate is based on active trading and real-time crowd-sourced probabilities, reflecting the collective judgment of market participants. The base rate for such clashes is low, but tensions between NATO and Russia remain high, and historical incidents like the 2023 Black Sea incident indicate the potential for escalation.
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Implied probability from Polymarket for August 31, 2026, market is 23% based on current trading.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Given the ongoing geopolitical disruptions and the short remaining window (17 days), a return to normal traffic (7-day moving average ≥60) by August 31 is highly unlikely. The market prices this outcome at ~2%, and while sudden de-escalation is possible, the base rate for such swift recoveries in active conflict zones is very low. I conservatively estimate a 3% chance, in line with the market's low implied probability.
Current prediction markets, which aggregate real-money bets from informed participants, assign about a 2% chance that Strait of Hormuz traffic will return to normal levels (7-day average of 60 or more ship transits) by August 31, 2026. Ongoing geopolitical tensions and suppressed vessel transits support this low probability. The market's large volume and real-time updates suggest this is a well-informed estimate.
Current geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have significantly suppressed maritime traffic, and with only a few weeks remaining until the August 31 deadline, there is no indication of a rapid return to the required 7-day moving average of 60 transit calls. Prediction markets, which aggregate real-time data and expert sentiment, consistently price this outcome at approximately 2%, reflecting a high degree of confidence that the threshold will not be met.
The current Polymarket odds suggest a 2% probability, but given the geopolitical tensions and the historical data, a slight adjustment is warranted. The base rate for such disruptions to resolve quickly is low, and the ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Iran are likely to keep traffic below normal levels.
As of mid-August 2026, geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran continue to suppress vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz, keeping traffic well below the 60-ship 7-day moving average threshold for normalcy [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.copilot.markets/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-august-31-20260702154212320). IMF Portwatch data has not yet shown a qualifying average, and the current market-implied probability of a 'Yes' resolution remains near 2% across multiple platforms [marketss.com](https://marketss.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-august-31-20260702154212320). Given the persistent instability and lack of recent improvement, the base rate of achieving normal traffic levels by August 31 is extremely low.
Polymarket prices indicate a 2% chance, considering ongoing geopolitical tensions suppressing transits and the market's real-time pricing.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
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The probability of a US announcement ending the Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026, is low at about 12%. The blockade was reinstated recently, and official statements indicate the US intends to maintain pressure on Iran, with Pentagon officials stating the blockade can continue indefinitely. Recent market data and official communications show no qualifying announcement has been made, and the US is pivoting back to sanctions rather than lifting the blockade. The oil market conditions and ongoing geopolitical tensions also suggest continuation rather than suspension of the blockade.
As of August 14, 2026, there has been no official US government announcement regarding the termination or suspension of the naval blockade. Prediction markets and current geopolitical analysis indicate that the blockade remains in effect, with no signs of an imminent policy reversal. The probability is set at 12% to account for the possibility of a sudden, unexpected diplomatic breakthrough or policy shift before the August 22 deadline, though the lack of official signals makes this unlikely.
The current probability is low due to the absence of any official US government announcements ending or suspending the blockade. The market odds reflect this, with the leading outcome being December 31 at 79%, and the next closest being October 31 at 66%. The recent pivot to sanctions and the lack of relevant official statements further support the low probability.
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Low probability due to absence of confirmed official announcements, ongoing economic pressure, and market odds (14% as of August 12, 2026).
Mean of 4/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 4/6 valid model forecasts.
The probability of an official US announcement ending the blockade by August 31, 2026, is very low. With only 17 days left, no credible signals from the administration, Iran's hardline stance, and Hegseth's recent affirmation of indefinite blockade enforcement, the market's 2% pricing is a reasonable anchor. The absence of any qualifying statements and the high geopolitical stakes make a sudden reversal highly unlikely.
Recent market data and news indicate a significant drop in the probability of a US announcement ending the Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026, currently around 33%. This decline is driven by Iran's firm stance on not reopening the Strait of Hormuz without US concessions, absence of any qualifying US government announcement, and ongoing geopolitical tensions. While diplomacy continues, no official declarative statement ending the blockade has been made, making a near-term announcement unlikely.
The U.S. administration has recently reaffirmed its commitment to maintaining the naval blockade of Iran indefinitely, with Secretary of War Pete Hegseth explicitly stating that the U.S. Navy can and will continue to enforce it [cbc.ca]. Given the current diplomatic impasse and Iran's refusal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz without significant U.S. concessions, there is no indication of an imminent policy reversal [global-political-spotlight.com]. With only a few weeks remaining until the August 31 deadline, the likelihood of a formal, official announcement ending the blockade is low [polymarket.com.se].
The current market odds on Polymarket have fallen sharply to around 32% for an announcement by August 31, 2026, reflecting a lack of recent U.S. government statements on ending the blockade and Iran's stance against reopening the Strait of Hormuz without concessions. The absence of relevant U.S. policy communications and the continued impasse suggest a low likelihood of a qualifying announcement in the near term.
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The Polymarket contract is currently priced at 32%, with recent sharp drops due to Iran's August 10 stance and lack of U.S. policy communication.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
The 60-day negotiation period ends around August 13, 2026, and as of August 14 there is no mutual announcement of an extension. Polymarket, the most current source, shows a 25% probability on August 14, reflecting stalled talks on core issues (enrichment, sanctions relief, asset release) and mixed official signals (Trump hints at contacts, Iran denies direct talks). With only six days left until the August 20 deadline and no clear diplomatic breakthrough, the chance of both parties publicly agreeing to extend is low but not zero, as last-minute deals remain possible.
The US and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding in June 2026 establishing a 60-day negotiation period extendable by mutual consent. Current prediction markets show mixed probabilities, with Polymarket at about 25% and other sources suggesting up to 62%. The negotiation faces significant challenges including unresolved nuclear issues and sanctions, but both sides have incentives to continue talks to avoid diplomatic fallout. Given the thin market volume and political uncertainties, a moderate probability slightly favoring extension is reasonable.
Despite the initial framework established by the Islamabad MOU, recent reports indicate significant diplomatic friction and stalled progress on core issues like nuclear enrichment and asset releases. With the August 20 deadline rapidly approaching and no clear signals of a breakthrough or mutual intent to extend, the probability of a formal, joint announcement remains low, consistent with current market sentiment.
The probability of the US-Iran 60-day negotiation period being extended is estimated at 55%. This is based on the current market consensus, which shows a range of probabilities from 25% to 62%, with the most recent data pointing to around 56%. The key factors include the need for mutual consent, the complexity of the issues involved (nuclear enrichment, sanctions, frozen assets), and the mixed messaging from both sides. The thin time remaining before the deadline also adds uncertainty.
While the structured MOU framework and mutual interest in avoiding escalation create incentives to extend, significant substantive disagreements and public signaling misalignment reduce certainty. Prediction markets reflect a slight lean toward extension, but with notable volatility and disagreement across platforms. Given the requirement for a coordinated, official, and unambiguous joint announcement, and the current diplomatic friction, the probability is above 50% due to political incentives to continue talks, but not decisively so.
The 60-day negotiation period is approaching its August 20 deadline with core issues like nuclear enrichment and frozen assets unresolved. Mixed diplomatic signals and thin time left contribute to uncertainty.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
A dip to $50,000 in the remaining 17 days of August would require a severe crash (~20%+ drop) from current levels around $63,000. Such moves are rare in short windows without a clear trigger. Polymarket implied probability of 7.7% provides a reasonable anchor, adjusted slightly downward for the mid-month timing and lack of obvious catalysts.
Current prediction markets on Polymarket show a low probability of about 7.7% that Bitcoin will dip to $50,000 in August 2026 based on Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle lows. Given Bitcoin's recent price trends and volatility, a dip to $50,000 within that month is considered unlikely but not impossible. The market's liquidity and volume support this as a reasonable estimate.
Current market data from [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-dip-to-50k-in-august-2026) indicates a low probability of approximately 7.7% for Bitcoin hitting $50,000 in August. Given that we are already mid-month and the price has remained significantly above this threshold, the likelihood of a sudden, sharp decline to that level within the remaining days is statistically low based on current volatility expectations.
The probability of Bitcoin dipping to $50,000 in August is estimated to be low based on the current market sentiment and the odds from Polymarket. The market for Bitcoin dipping to $50,000 in August is currently at 7.7% on Polymarket, indicating a low likelihood. Additionally, the market for Bitcoin dipping to $55,000 in August is at 14.5%, suggesting that even a slightly higher target price has a higher probability. The market for Bitcoin dipping to $62,500 in August is at 90.5%, indicating that a more moderate dip is considered highly likely. These odds suggest that a significant dip to $50,000 is less probable compared to more moderate dips.
As of 2026-08-14, Bitcoin has not dipped to $50,000, with current price levels well above that threshold. The Polymarket odds for a dip to $50,000 in August 2026 stand at 7.7% [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-dip-to-50k-in-august-2026), reflecting low trader expectation. Given the current price trajectory, macro conditions, and the diminishing window for such a sharp drop, the probability remains low but not impossible due to potential black swan events.
The Polymarket market for Bitcoin dipping to $50,000 in August currently has a 7.7% probability, which is based on Binance 1-minute BTC/USDT candle low prices.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
The Polymarket contract for Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 in August 2026 is currently trading at 39.5%, indicating a moderate probability. However, given Bitcoin's historical volatility and the fact that the month is only half over, there is still significant time for a dip to occur. The market for a dip to $62,500 is at 90.5%, suggesting that a drop to that level is highly likely, which makes a further drop to $60,000 plausible but less certain. I estimate a slightly higher probability than the current market price due to the remaining time and volatility, but still below 50% because $60,000 represents a substantial decline from current levels.
Market data from Polymarket shows a 39.5% probability that Bitcoin will dip to $60,000 in August 2026 based on Binance 1-minute candle lows. Given Bitcoin's historical volatility and current market trends, this moderate probability reflects a plausible but not highly likely dip to that level within the month.
Current market sentiment on [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-dip-to-60k-in-august-2026) places the probability at approximately 39.5%. Given that Bitcoin has already shown volatility near the $62,500 level as indicated by [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-dip-to-62pt5k-in-august-2026-from-august-3), a further dip to $60,000 remains a plausible scenario within the remaining days of August, though it requires a moderate increase in downward pressure.
Polymarket's prediction markets have a strong track record of accuracy, with a one-month accuracy score of 94% [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-august). The market for Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 in August shows 39.5% odds [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-dip-to-60k-in-august-2026), while a similar market for dipping to $62,500 shows 90.5% odds [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-dip-to-62pt5k-in-august-2026-from-august-3). Given the proximity of $60,000 to $62,500 and the high confidence in the latter, it is reasonable to adjust the probability upwards from the 39.5% market price.
While a $60,000 Bitcoin dip in August 2026 is plausible, it requires a significant correction. The 39.5% market-implied probability reflects moderate risk, likely driven by volatility expectations. Adjusting slightly upward for tail risk accumulation over a full month, the true probability is estimated at 0.4.
The Polymarket market for Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 in August has a current probability of 39.5%, which is a key indicator. Other related markets show varying probabilities, but this is the direct market for the question.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
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Current market data and forecasts indicate that WTI crude oil prices are volatile but generally trading around $81 per barrel with geopolitical tensions and supply constraints supporting prices. The EIA projects Brent crude near $85 in Q3 2026, and market-based probabilities for WTI hitting $90 in August 2026 are around 27-29%. Given these factors and the historical volatility, a roughly 29% chance of hitting $90 is reasonable.
Current market sentiment and trading data from prediction platforms like Polymarket and Worldstreet indicate a probability of approximately 27.5% to 30% for WTI Crude Oil reaching $90 in August 2026. Given that we are already past the middle of the month and there is no significant geopolitical or supply-side catalyst currently driving prices toward that level, the likelihood of a sharp spike remains relatively low.
The current price of WTI Crude Oil is around $81 per barrel, with geopolitical tensions and supply constraints driving volatility. The EIA projects Brent averages near $85 for Q3 2026, suggesting a potential upward trend. Historical data and market sentiment indicate a 30% chance of hitting $90 in August 2026.
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Current WTI price near $81, geopolitical risks could push it up, but low market odds and demand factors limit upside.
Mean of 4/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 4/6 valid model forecasts.
WTI crude oil is currently trading near $81 per barrel, with elevated volatility due to U.S.-Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz concerns. Reaching $95 would require a roughly 17% increase in about two weeks, which is a large move even with geopolitical tail risks. Polymarket odds for this event are around 13-16%, and the EIA projects Brent averaging near $85 for Q3 2026, suggesting limited upside. Base rates for such extreme intraday spikes are low, and while supply tightness and geopolitical disruptions could push prices up, the probability remains modest.
Current market data and prediction markets assign about a 14-16% probability that WTI crude oil will hit $95 or higher during any trading session in August 2026. Prices are currently around $81 with geopolitical tensions and supply constraints supporting elevated prices, but reaching $95 is considered unlikely given current forecasts and demand outlooks.
WTI Crude Oil is currently trading near $81 per barrel, and reaching $95 would require a significant price surge of approximately 17%. While geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and potential supply constraints are ongoing risks, current market sentiment and EIA projections suggest prices are more likely to remain in the $80-$85 range rather than spiking to $95. The low probability reflects the lack of immediate catalysts strong enough to drive such a sharp, sustained increase in the short term.
The current market price for WTI Crude Oil is around $81 per barrel, with projections for Q3 2026 averaging near $85 per barrel. Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, are a significant driver of price volatility. Historical data and market predictions suggest a 13-16.5% probability of WTI reaching $95, which aligns with the current market sentiment and expert forecasts.
As of August 2026, WTI crude oil is trading near $81 per barrel amid elevated volatility driven by geopolitical tensions, particularly the U.S.-Iran conflict and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-august-2026). The EIA projects Brent averages near $85/barrel for Q3 2026, with prices expected to ease later, suggesting a challenging but not impossible path to $95 [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-wti-reach-95-in-august-2026). Markets currently assign around a 13%–16.5% probability to WTI reaching $95, but given the tight supply and ongoing risks, a 22% probability accounts for tail risks and volatility clustering.
Current WTI price near $81, geopolitical disruptions as a key driver, EIA projection of Brent around $85 in Q3 2026, and market odds of 16.5% suggest a moderate chance.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Recent economic data (cooler July CPI, weaker payrolls) has sharply reduced market expectations for a September hike. Prediction markets now price a ~6-28% chance, with the consensus leaning strongly toward no change. Given the Fed's data-dependent posture and the absence of a clear inflation or overheating signal, the probability of a 25 bps hike is low. I estimate 12%.
Prediction markets like Polymarket, which aggregate real-money trader beliefs and have a strong track record of accuracy, currently assign about a 6% probability to a 25 bps rate increase after the September 2026 FOMC meeting. Despite some Fed officials advocating for hikes, the consensus and market pricing strongly favor no increase at that meeting.
Current market sentiment and economic consensus strongly favor a 'no change' outcome for the September 2026 FOMC meeting. While there are occasional dissenting voices like Neel Kashkari advocating for hikes, the prevailing expectation remains that the Federal Reserve will maintain current rates, as reflected in the low probability assigned by prediction markets like [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-september).
The prediction markets show a range of probabilities, with Polymarket at 6.0% [polyautomate.org](https://polyautomate.org/prediction-odds/will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-september-2026-meeting), PredEdge at 44.5% [prededge.com](https://prededge.com/markets/finance/61785151-will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-september-2026-meeting), and OddsShift at 28% [oddsshift.com](https://oddsshift.com/radar/will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-september-2026-meeting-649). The base rate for Fed rate hikes in recent years is low, and recent economic data, including cooler CPI readings and a softening labor market, suggests a cautious approach. However, some Fed officials, like Neel Kashkari, have called for immediate rate hikes, indicating some hawkish sentiment.
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Polymarket traders currently assign a 6.0% probability to the Fed increasing interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting, and the market's pricing reflects this low likelihood.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
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Prediction markets like Polymarket currently price the probability of no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting at about 72%. These markets aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of many traders and have a strong track record of accuracy, especially close to the event date. Given the significant trading volume and the consistency of this estimate across sources, a 72% probability is a well-supported forecast.
Prediction markets currently show a strong consensus that the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates during the September 2026 meeting. While economic conditions can shift, the high probability assigned by participants on platforms like [polyrama.io](https://polyrama.io/markets/will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-september-2026-meeting-615) suggests that a 'no change' outcome is the most likely scenario based on current macroeconomic expectations.
The Polymarket prediction market currently shows a 72% probability of no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting, reflecting the collective judgment of traders. This aligns with the recent trend of market expectations and economic indicators suggesting a cautious approach by the Federal Reserve.
The current Federal Reserve policy, as of the June 2026 FOMC statement, maintains the federal funds rate at 3.5%–3.75% [federalreserve.gov](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260617a.htm). However, prediction markets such as Polymarket, which aggregate real-money trader beliefs, assign a 100% probability to a 25 bps rate cut in September 2026 [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-september). This strong consensus, supported by $220 million in trading volume on the event, reflects high confidence in a policy shift. While the Fed has not yet acted, the market's track record of 94% accuracy in recent predictions suggests the 'no change' outcome is highly unlikely.
Polymarket data shows the leading outcome for the September 2026 Fed meeting is a 25 bps decrease at 100%, indicating no chance of no change.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.