Based on the historical frequency of Iranian airspace closures in 2026 (about 2 closures in 7 months) and the short remaining time, a baseline monthly probability of ~28% is adjusted downward for the 11‑day window (≈10% if uniform). However, the recent upward price movement (+9pp in a week) suggests bettors are incorporating new information, pushing the implied probability to 31%. Given the lack of a clear catalyst in the search results, I set a conservative estimate slightly below the market at 30% to avoid over‑reacting to the price move while still acknowledging the elevated risk.
Recent market data from Polymarket and Orrery indicate a 31% implied probability of Iran fully closing its airspace by July 31, 2026. Historical closures have occurred but are relatively rare and typically linked to specific political or military events. Current geopolitical tensions and past precedent suggest a moderate but not high likelihood of such a closure before the deadline.
The probability reflects current market sentiment and the historical frequency of such events. While Iran has closed its airspace in the past due to geopolitical tensions, a 'general closure' is a significant event that typically occurs only during periods of acute military escalation. With only a few days remaining until the July 31 deadline, the likelihood of a sudden, broad, non-weather-related closure remains moderate but not high, consistent with the 31% pricing observed on [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-full-airspace-closure-byptptpt-20260625195253028).
Recent history shows Iran has closed its airspace multiple times in 2026, with the most recent closure ending on February 28, 2026. The current Polymarket probability is 31%, which suggests a moderate likelihood. However, given the recent pattern of closures and the geopolitical tensions, I adjust slightly upwards to account for potential future disruptions.
Given Iran's history of full closures during periods of tension in early 2026 and the current market-implied probability near 31%, the base rate supports a moderate chance. However, absence of recent closure events and the requirement for a general, non-weather-related shutdown imply the probability is slightly above, but close to, the market price. Adjusting for calibration and source credibility, the true probability is estimated at 32%.
The Polymarket implied probability is 31% as of the search, with recent price increases. The resolution depends on a general airspace closure not due to weather.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
The 7-day moving average remains below 60, and with only six weeks until the deadline, the required sustained increase is unlikely given ongoing geopolitical and security obstacles. While a diplomatic breakthrough or security improvement could change the outlook, current trends and market consensus suggest a low probability (~20%) of reaching the threshold by August 31 [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-august-31-20260702154212320).
Current prediction markets, which aggregate diverse information and trader sentiment, assign an 18% probability that Strait of Hormuz traffic will return to normal levels by August 31, 2026. This low probability reflects ongoing geopolitical tensions, recent attacks reducing transit, and uncertainties in negotiations between the U.S. and Iran. While negotiations and potential agreements could improve traffic, current volatility and elevated risks keep the likelihood relatively low.
The market for this event is currently pricing a low probability of 18% [polymarket.com]. Given the recent history of drone attacks on vessels in late June 2026 and the subsequent increase in threat levels by the Joint Maritime Information Center, the geopolitical situation remains volatile [manifold.markets]. Achieving a 7-day moving average of 60 transit calls requires a sustained de-escalation that has not yet materialized, making the 'No' outcome more likely within the remaining timeframe.
The current 7-day moving average of transit calls is in the mid-50s, well below the 60-ship threshold. Ongoing regional tensions, sanctions on Iran, and downward revisions in global oil demand forecasts suggest that traffic is unlikely to return to normal levels by August 31, 2026. While there are some positive signs, such as enhanced maritime security cooperation, these are not expected to significantly boost traffic volumes in the near term.
Recent data from IMF Portwatch shows the 7-day moving average of transit calls has remained below 60, hovering in the mid-50s, indicating traffic has not yet returned to the defined 'normal' level. Ongoing regional tensions, Iran's stance on its nuclear program, and sustained sanctions continue to suppress shipping activity. While there are some positive developments like GCC maritime security cooperation, they have not yet translated into a significant rebound in traffic. Market sentiment, as reflected on Polymarket and other platforms, aligns with a low probability of 16–18% for a 'Yes' resolution.
Current Polymarket crowd probability is 18%, but recent data shows 7-day moving average below 60, with ongoing tensions and sanctions limiting traffic.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
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Current prediction markets and expert analyses place the probability of Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by July 31 at about 46%, reflecting nearly even odds. This is due to ongoing US-Iran negotiations that could lead to a partial agreement or de-escalation, which would increase shipping traffic. However, persistent security risks, elevated insurance costs, and naval patrols continue to suppress traffic, making a full recovery uncertain within the short timeframe.
Despite some speculative diplomatic activity, the current data from IMF Portwatch indicates that shipping traffic remains significantly suppressed. With the July 31 deadline only days away, the probability of a sudden, sustained recovery to the required 7-day moving average of 60 transit calls is extremely low, as reflected by the consensus in prediction markets.
The current market probability is near even odds, with diplomatic progress between the U.S. and Iran being the primary catalyst. Recent framework agreements have lifted hopes, but persistent security risks and elevated insurance premiums continue to constrain vessel transits. Key factors include the status of U.S.-Iran negotiations, IMF Portwatch transit call averages, and operational announcements from the U.S. Navy Fifth Fleet.
Base rates suggest low probability given minimal traffic recovery since June and high structural barriers. However, the existence of active diplomacy and a plausible pathway to de-escalation prevents a very low estimate. The 46% market view appears optimistic given on-the-ground constraints, so I discount it toward a more conservative 35%.
The Polymarket crowd currently assigns a 1% chance, with factors like security risks and de-mining constraining transits.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
The market requires a continuous 14-day period with no US qualifying military action against Iran starting by July 24. A US airstrike on July 14 reset the clock, meaning the earliest a 14-day period could complete is July 28, which is after the July 24 deadline. With only 6 days left until market close, it is geometrically impossible to achieve a 14-day pause starting now. Polymarket prices for this outcome are around 8-10%, but structural factors—no active diplomatic channel, ongoing retaliation cycle, and Trump's maximum pressure doctrine—make even a short pause extremely unlikely. The only path to Yes would be if a ceasefire had already begun before July 15, but there is no evidence of that; active hostilities continue. Thus, the true probability is near zero, conservatively estimated at 2%.
Given the requirement of a continuous 14-day period without qualifying US military action against Iran by July 24, and the fact that a US strike occurred on July 14 resetting the clock, it is impossible for the 14-day ceasefire to complete by July 24. Additionally, there is no evidence of a ceasefire in progress or diplomatic channels to facilitate one, making a ceasefire by this date highly unlikely.
Given that a US strike occurred on July 14, 2026, the 14-day clock for a ceasefire reset on July 15. To satisfy the requirement of a 14-day continuous period of no qualifying military action by the July 24 deadline, the period would need to have concluded by that date. Since the earliest possible completion date for such a period is July 28, it is mathematically impossible for this market to resolve to 'Yes' by July 24.
The analysis suggests that the probability of a 14-day ceasefire between the US and Iran by July 24, 2026, is very low. The market prices and expert analyses indicate a strong consensus that such an outcome is unlikely, with key factors including the lack of diplomatic channels, ongoing hostilities, and the high bar set by the resolution criteria.
The 14-day ceasefire period required for a 'Yes' resolution cannot be completed by July 24, as the last qualifying U.S. strike occurred on July 14, making July 28 the earliest possible completion date. With no active diplomacy and ongoing hostilities, the chance of an earlier strike resetting the clock is high. The structural and timing constraints make resolution 'Yes' highly improbable.
Insufficient time remains for a 14-day ceasefire period to complete by July 24 due to recent US strikes resetting the clock, and lack of diplomatic channels and ongoing tensions make it unlikely.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Prediction markets for this exact event show ~8.5% (Polymarket) and ~11% (Myriad) as of July 20, 2026. With only 11 days remaining in July, the chance of a dip to $57,500 is limited but not negligible, given Bitcoin's typical intra-month volatility. The current price is likely above $57,500, and a drop of ~10-15% would be needed, which is plausible but not highly probable in the remaining time.
Current prediction markets, such as Polymarket, assign about an 8.5% chance that Bitcoin will dip to $57,500 or lower on Binance during July 2026. This low probability reflects recent price trends, market volatility, and the general upward momentum in Bitcoin prices, making such a dip relatively unlikely but still possible.
Current market sentiment and prediction platforms like [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-dip-to-57pt5k-in-july-2026) and [myriad.markets](https://myriad.markets/events/btc-lows-in-july-d0e804a2) indicate a relatively low probability for Bitcoin hitting the $57,500 threshold in July 2026, with estimates ranging between 8.5% and 21.5%. Given that we are already late in the month, the likelihood of such a volatility event occurring in the remaining days is constrained by current price action and market stability.
The prediction markets Polymarket and Myriad provide insights into the likelihood of Bitcoin dipping to $57,500 in July 2026. Polymarket indicates an 8.5% chance [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-dip-to-57pt5k-in-july-2026), while Myriad shows a slightly higher probability of 11% [myriad.markets](https://myriad.markets/events/btc-lows-in-july-d0e804a2). Considering these market-based probabilities and the fact that lower dips (e.g., $50,000 and $52,500) have even lower probabilities (2.5% and 3.5% respectively) [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-dip-to-50k-in-july-2026) [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-dip-to-52pt5k-in-july-2026), a reasonable estimate for the probability of Bitcoin dipping to $57,500 in July 2026 is around 15%.
Prediction markets on Polymarket and Myriad show divergent but informative probabilities, with Polymarket pricing a 8.5% chance [polymarket.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-dip-to-57pt5k-in-july-2026) and Myriad showing around 11% [myriad.markets](https://myriad.markets/events/btc-lows-in-july-d0e804a2). These reflect crowd-sourced expectations based on current volatility and macro conditions. Given that Bitcoin would need a ~15–20% drop from typical mid-2026 levels to hit $57,500, and considering historical drawdowns and implied volatility, 11% represents a well-calibrated estimate.
Prediction markets like Polymarket and Myriad show probabilities around 8.5% and 11% respectively for Bitcoin dipping to $57,500 in July 2026.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
As of July 20, 2026, Bitcoin is trading around $62,600, requiring a ~12% rally to hit $70,000 within the remaining 11 days of July. Polymarket and Ominari markets price this at 19.5% and 8% respectively, with the Polymarket figure reflecting more liquidity and volume. The short timeframe and recent resistance in the mid-$60k range make a sharp spike unlikely, but the 1-minute candle resolution allows for brief wicks, and the market consensus around 19% provides a reasonable base rate. I adjust slightly downward from the higher Polymarket estimate due to the limited time and lack of strong catalysts, settling on 19%.
Current market data from prediction markets like Polymarket and Ominari suggest a roughly 19.5% chance that Bitcoin will reach $70,000 in July 2026 based on Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle highs. Bitcoin is trading around $62,600 mid-July, needing about a 12% rally to hit $70,000, which is plausible but requires overcoming recent resistance levels. Given the volatility and historical price behavior, a 20% probability is a reasonable independent estimate.
As of late July 2026, Bitcoin is trading significantly below the $70,000 threshold, requiring a substantial rally in the final days of the month. Market sentiment and prediction platforms like [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-reach-70k-in-july-2026) and [ominari.com](https://www.ominari.com/market/will-bitcoin-reach-70k-in-july-2026) reflect a low probability, consistent with the technical resistance levels noted in [manifold.markets](https://manifold.markets/Fugazi/will-btc-cross-70000-before-the-end). Given the limited time remaining in July, a breakout to $70,000 appears unlikely without a major catalyst.
Bitcoin's current price and recent trends suggest a moderate likelihood of reaching $70,000 in July. The market consensus from prediction platforms like Polymarket and Manifold indicates probabilities around 20-28%, which aligns with the historical volatility and resistance levels Bitcoin has shown. Given the steady consolidation and potential for a rally, a 25% probability seems reasonable.
As of mid-July 2026, Bitcoin is trading around $62,600, requiring a 12% increase to reach $70,000 [manifold.markets](https://manifold.markets/Fugazi/will-btc-cross-70000-before-the-end). Prediction markets on Polymarket assign a 19.5% probability to this event based on Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle highs [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-reach-70k-in-july-2026). The Manifold market, using broader verification sources, estimates 23%. Adjusting for base rates and current momentum, the true probability is slightly above 20%.
Bitcoin is currently near $62,600 and needs a ~12% rally to reach $70k by end-July. Market probabilities from Polymarket (19.5%) and Manifold (23%) are considered, leading to this estimate.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Given the short remaining time (11 days until July 31), the lack of any reported major crisis, and the strict definition of a qualifying withdrawal (definitive, unconditional, official), the probability that Iran announces a full termination of MOU negotiations by the deadline is low. The 16% market price on one platform is a rough anchor, but my independent estimate remains at 0.15.
The negotiations began recently on June 14, 2026, with a 60-day framework, so the deadline is approaching soon. Current market data from prediction platforms indicates a low probability (around 16%) that Iran will officially announce withdrawal by July 31. There is no public indication or official statement suggesting imminent termination of participation, and Iran typically prefers to maintain negotiation leverage rather than abruptly ending talks.
The MOU established a 60-day framework for negotiations, and there is currently no evidence of a breakdown or official intent to withdraw before the July 31 deadline. Given the diplomatic effort required to reach the June 14 agreement, a formal, unambiguous termination of the entire process within such a short window is unlikely unless a major, unforeseen escalation occurs.
Given the recent MOU and the 60-day framework for negotiations, it is unlikely that Iran will withdraw from the negotiations within the next month. The base rate for such withdrawals is low, and there is no specific evidence suggesting imminent withdrawal.
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As of July 31, the market indicates a 16% probability, with no confirmed official announcement of withdrawal from MOU negotiations by the deadline.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
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Current market indicators show mixed probabilities, with one source assigning about 25% and another about 81% chance for WTI to hit $85 in July 2026. Given recent easing of supply disruptions, lower demand, and rising inventories, the likelihood is moderate but not certain. The price is currently near $70, and reaching $85 would require significant supply shocks or demand spikes, which are uncertain at this time.
Market sentiment on prediction platforms like Polymarket and Orrery has shifted significantly toward 'Yes' in recent days, with implied probabilities reaching as high as 81% [orrery.me]. Given that the market only requires a single 1-minute candle to touch $85 at any point during the remaining days of July, the volatility inherent in WTI futures makes this threshold highly achievable if current price trends persist [predictmarketcap.com].
The current market odds on Polymarket and Orrery suggest a significant probability of WTI Crude Oil hitting $85 in July 2026, with Polymarket at 57.5% and Orrery at 81%. The recent volatility and trading volume indicate strong market interest and potential for price movements. Historical data and current geopolitical factors also support the possibility of such a price increase.
The 81% implied probability from Polymarket reflects real-time trader expectations and incorporates available information on supply, demand, and geopolitical risks. Given the 'high watermark' resolution rule, even a brief intraday spike to $85 would trigger a 'Yes' resolution, making this outcome more probable than a closing price threshold. Market depth and recent volume support the credibility of this probability estimate.
Polymarket currently assigns a 57.5% probability, and considering market indicators, this is a key factor. Other sources like Orrery have higher odds, but Polymarket's data is directly relevant.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
As of late June 2026, WTI crude oil is trading around $70, far from the $90 threshold. The easing of geopolitical tensions, rising global inventories, and softening demand create a strong downward bias. While a sudden supply disruption could cause a spike, the base rate for such a large move in a single month is very low, and current fundamentals point to continued surplus. I estimate a 5% chance of a temporary intra-month spike to $90.
Current WTI crude oil futures are trading near $70, significantly below the $90 threshold. Recent easing of geopolitical tensions and increased supply from OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers have reduced upward price pressure. While volatility remains, a jump to $90 within July 2026 appears unlikely without a major supply disruption or demand surge.
As of late June 2026, WTI Crude Oil is trading near $70/bbl, significantly below the $90 threshold. Market sentiment is currently bearish due to easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, rising global inventories, and increased non-OPEC supply, making a rapid $20 rally to $90 in July highly unlikely without a major, unforeseen supply shock.
As of June 25, 2026, front-month WTI futures trade near $70, down sharply from Q2 peaks. While geopolitical risks and potential supply disruptions could drive prices up, the current trend and projections suggest a more likely range around $70-$85. The probability of hitting $90 is low but not zero, given potential volatility.
WTI is currently trading around $70 in late June 2026, with improving supply conditions and reduced geopolitical tensions. Fundamental factors, including rising inventories and anticipated surplus, suggest limited upward momentum. Reaching $90 would require a major unforeseen disruption, making it unlikely.
As of June 25, 2026, front-month WTI trades near $70, with rising global inventories and softening demand pressuring prices. While geopolitical risks remain, progress toward a US-Iran peace deal has eased supply fears, but overall, factors like surplus expectations limit upside.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
The market currently prices a 65% chance of WTI hitting $65 or below during a 1-minute candle in July 2026, based on prediction platforms like Polymarket and PredictionNinja [predictionninja.com](https://predictionninja.com/market/will-wti-dip-to-65-in-july-2026). Fundamental factors—including a potential US-Iran deal, rising global inventories, and non-OPEC supply growth—favor downside risk, but the short remaining window (11 days) makes a sharp drop less certain. Given the market consensus and the balance of risks, a 65% probability is reasonable.
Current prediction markets, including Polymarket and PredictionNinja, show a consensus probability around 65% that WTI Crude Oil will hit a low of $65 in July 2026. The market liquidity and volume are relatively high, indicating active trading and confidence in this estimate. The probability has increased from about 35% to 65% over the past month, reflecting recent market sentiment and price trends.
As of late June 2026, WTI crude oil futures are trading near $70 per barrel. Market sentiment is currently bearish due to easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and expectations of increased supply, which supports the likelihood of a dip toward the $65 level during July. Given the current proximity to the target price and the prevailing downward pressure on oil prices, a 65% probability reflects the market's consensus and the fundamental outlook for the commodity.
The market consensus on prediction platforms like PredictionNinja and Polymarket shows a 65% probability that WTI Crude Oil will hit a low of $65 in July 2026. This is supported by recent trading data and market trends indicating a downward pressure on oil prices due to increasing global inventories and softening demand. The resolution criteria and market dynamics suggest a significant chance of hitting this price level.
As of late June 2026, WTI crude oil futures are trading near $70, down from earlier peaks above $100, reflecting eased geopolitical tensions and rising global inventories. Market sentiment is shifting toward oversupply concerns due to OPEC+ unwinding, increased non-OPEC supply, and softening demand, creating downward pressure on prices [polymarket.copilot.markets](https://polymarket.copilot.markets/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-july-2026). With a current market-implied probability of 65% on multiple prediction platforms, and no major supply shocks evident, the base rate for a dip to $65 in July is supported by both fundamentals and trader positioning.
Current market data shows a 65% probability, with WTI near $70 as of June 25, 2026, facing downward pressure from rising inventories and non-OPEC supply growth, though geopolitical risks persist.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Prediction market probabilities for the exact 'Pause-Pause-Pause' sequence range from 78% to 96%, with the most liquid markets (Polymarket) showing ~96%. However, I adjust slightly downward (to 0.85) because: (1) the joint probability implied by single-meeting CME data (93% each) gives ~80%, (2) Polymarket's 96% for this specific outcome may include some noise or liquidity effects, and (3) unexpected economic data releases between now and July 29 could still trigger a cut, though current fundamentals (sticky inflation, stable labor market) strongly support a hold through all three meetings.
Prediction markets and analysis indicate a strong consensus that the Fed will hold rates steady at the next three FOMC meetings in April, June, and July 2026. The current federal funds rate has been stable since December 2025, inflation remains above target, and labor market conditions do not suggest an imminent rate cut or hike. Market-implied probabilities from multiple sources converge around 78-96%, with 78% being a balanced estimate considering some uncertainty.
Current market data and economic indicators strongly favor a 'Pause-Pause-Pause' outcome for the upcoming FOMC meetings. With inflation remaining above target and the labor market showing resilience, the Federal Reserve has maintained a data-dependent, cautious stance, and prediction markets consistently price this sequence at over 90% probability [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decisions-apr-jul), [lines.com](https://www.lines.com/prediction-markets/economy/fed-decisions-apr-jul).
Prediction markets and Fed futures indicate a strong consensus (78.5% to 96%) that the Fed will pause in all three meetings (Apr-Jun-Jul). The Fed has held rates steady since December 2025, and current economic data (stable inflation, cooling but intact labor market) supports this stance. However, unexpected economic shocks or significant data surprises could alter this path.
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Multiple prediction markets show high probabilities for Pause–Pause–Pause, with Polymarket at 96%, Struct.to at 78.5%, and W.E.T. at 95% as of July 18, 2026. The Fed has held rates steady since December 2025, with core PCE inflation above target and a cooling labor market, reducing immediate catalyst for cuts or hikes.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
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Current prediction markets and trading odds indicate a strong consensus (around 85-94%) that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged after the July 2026 meeting. The market liquidity and tight bid-ask spreads suggest these prices are reliable. Additionally, the Fed's recent cautious approach to rate changes supports the likelihood of no change.
Market sentiment and current economic forecasting models strongly favor a 'no change' decision for the July 2026 FOMC meeting. Prediction markets consistently show high probabilities (ranging from 85% to 94%) that the Federal Reserve will maintain the current target federal funds rate, reflecting a consensus that the committee will likely hold steady during this period.
Prediction markets like Polymarket and Polyguana show a strong consensus (85-94%) that there will be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting. The market prices reflect a high probability of no change, with only a small tail risk of a hike or cut.
Prediction markets such as Polymarket, Polyguana, and Kresmion show consensus probabilities between 84.5% and 95% for no change in the Fed's interest rates after the July 2026 meeting, with Polymarket's current live probability at 85% [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-july-181/will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-july-2026-meeting). These markets reflect aggregated trader expectations based on current economic data and Fed signaling. While not definitive, they serve as strong leading indicators of likely policy outcomes.
Prediction markets like Polymarket and Polyguana show significant probabilities of no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.