The June Islamabad Memorandum truce was declared ended by President Trump on July 8 after Iranian strikes on commercial vessels and subsequent U.S.-Iran exchanges. Since then, both sides have exchanged further strikes, with U.S. operations expanding into Iran and Iranian missiles targeting U.S. positions. Israel has not directly re-engaged Iranian territory in these latest exchanges, but it remains on high alert and has signaled readiness for independent action. Negotiations on a permanent settlement are stalled with no immediate diplomatic milestones. Given the active hostilities involving the U.S. and Iran, and the fragile nature of the prior ceasefire, the probability that a ceasefire between Israel and Iran holds through August 15 is low, though the narrow definition of qualifying military action (direct impact on terrestrial territory, excluding interceptions and maritime/airspace) provides some buffer. The Polymarket price of ~50% as of July 22 reflects uncertainty, but the recent escalation trend suggests a higher chance of a qualifying event before the deadline.
Recent escalations between Israel and Iran, including strikes on commercial vessels and retaliatory military actions, have increased tensions and reduced the likelihood of a sustained ceasefire. However, no direct large-scale military action between Israel and Iran has been reported recently, and both sides have incentives to avoid full-scale conflict. The lack of scheduled diplomatic milestones and ongoing mutual accusations suggest instability, but the situation could remain frozen without qualifying military actions through August 15.
Recent reports indicate that the previous ceasefire framework has effectively collapsed following mutual escalations and strikes in the region [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt-20260716224448963/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-august-15-20260716224448969-246-815-987-693). With ongoing military exchanges and a lack of diplomatic progress, the likelihood of a qualifying military action occurring before August 15 remains high, making a continued state of ceasefire unlikely.
Recent escalations in the Strait of Hormuz and the breakdown of the June Islamabad Memorandum truce indicate a high likelihood of continued hostilities. Both sides have exchanged strikes, and negotiations are stalled. However, Israel has not directly re-engaged Iranian territory in the latest exchanges, suggesting a possibility of restraint.
The ceasefire framework is effectively collapsed due to recent military actions and official declarations. Although Israel has not yet directly struck Iran in the current escalation, its high alert status and history of independent operations create significant risk. Base rates of conflict recurrence and lack of diplomatic progress further reduce the likelihood of sustained ceasefire through August 15.
Recent escalations including strikes and U.S. responses, stalled negotiations, and Israel's high alert status suggest reduced likelihood of ceasefire continuation.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
timeout after 30000ms
Current market odds and expert analysis suggest a low probability (around 10-17%) that Strait of Hormuz traffic will return to normal levels by August 31, 2026. Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations and recent volatility in ship transit numbers indicate uncertainty, with risks from disputes over transit fees and regional tensions. While progress in talks could improve traffic, the prevailing cautious stance of shipowners and elevated insurance costs reduce the likelihood of a full return to normal traffic by the deadline.
Current market sentiment and geopolitical conditions suggest significant caution regarding a rapid return to normal shipping volumes in the Strait of Hormuz. While negotiations are ongoing, the volatility in daily transit calls and the persistence of security concerns for commercial vessels make a sustained 7-day moving average of 60+ arrivals unlikely by the end of August 2026.
The current market odds and recent volatility in transit calls suggest a low probability of normal traffic by August 31. The ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations and disputes over transit fees and route control are significant factors affecting traffic resumption.
timeout after 30000ms
Market odds from Polymarket and Marketss indicate a low probability, considering the 7-day moving average requirement and recent traffic volatility.
Mean of 4/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 4/6 valid model forecasts.
The question asks whether the US announced a halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24, 2026. Multiple prediction markets (Orrery, Polymarket, PredEdge, Marketss) have already resolved this question as 'NO' as of late July 2026, with the implied probability on Polymarket at 0% and the market resolved. No credible news reports indicate any such official US announcement occurred by the deadline. Given the definitive resolution of the markets and the absence of any qualifying announcement, the probability is effectively zero.
Current prediction markets, such as those on Polymarket and Orrery, assign a low probability (around 13%) to the US announcing a halt in offensive operations against Iran by July 24. The market with the highest trading volume and engagement reflects strong consensus that such an announcement is unlikely by that date. Given the complexity of US-Iran relations and the lack of recent official signals toward a ceasefire, the low probability aligns with expert and market sentiment.
The event in question has already passed its deadline of July 24, 2026. Multiple prediction market sources, including [orrery.me](https://orrery.me/markets/will-the-us-announce-an-iran-ceasefire-by-july-24-20260718000915874), [prededge.com](https://prededge.com/markets/geopolitics/567285443-us-announces-halt-in-iran-offensive-operations-by-july-24), and [marketss.com](https://marketss.com/event/us-announces-halt-in-iran-offensive-operations-byptptpt-20260718015003096), confirm that the market has already resolved to 'NO' because no such official announcement was made by the specified date.
As of the latest information, there are no official announcements or credible reports indicating that the United States government is planning to announce a halt in offensive operations against Iran by July 24. The market prices and expert analyses suggest a very low probability of such an announcement, with Polymarket pricing the probability at 0% [prededge.com](https://prededge.com/markets/geopolitics/567285443-us-announces-halt-in-iran-offensive-operations-by-july-24). The geopolitical context and the lack of official statements support this low probability.
timeout after 30000ms
As of the search date, Polymarket prices 'No' at 100%, and there is no indication of an official US government announcement by July 24.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Both sides signed an initial MOU on June 17, 2026, committing to a 60-day negotiation for a final deal. The initial MOU already includes a concrete nuclear obligation (down-blending of enriched uranium under IAEA), showing momentum. The short timeline and history of difficult negotiations pose risks, but the urgency from the recent war and presidential-level commitment increase the likelihood of reaching a final instrument by August 18. I estimate a 62% probability, balancing the strong initial progress against the tight deadline and potential sticking points.
The US and Iran have already signed a memorandum of understanding on June 14, 2026, committing to negotiate a final deal within 60 days, which is extendable. Given the strong incentives on both sides to finalize a deal, including Iran's agreement to down-blend enriched uranium under IAEA supervision and the US's insistence on non-procurement of nuclear weapons, there is a reasonable likelihood that a qualifying written diplomatic instrument will be signed or formally adopted by August 18, 2026. However, the complexity of negotiations and historical difficulties in US-Iran nuclear agreements temper confidence, preventing a higher probability.
While the June 14, 2026, memorandum established a 60-day window for negotiations, the complexity of nuclear verification and the history of US-Iran diplomatic friction suggest that reaching a 'final deal' with concrete, measurable benchmarks by August 18 is ambitious. Reports indicate that while Iran has agreed to some initial steps like down-blending, significant disagreements remain regarding the scope of the deal, particularly concerning Iran's missile program and the strictness of nuclear limitations. The 60-day period is extendable, which provides an 'out' for both sides to continue talking without finalizing a binding instrument by the deadline.
The initial agreement between the US and Iran sets a 60-day timeline for a final deal, with the possibility of extension. Both sides have committed to negotiating in good faith, and the interim deal includes specific obligations regarding Iran's nuclear program, such as downblending enriched uranium. However, past negotiations have faced hurdles, and the success of this deal is not guaranteed.
The U.S. and Iran have established a framework and political will to negotiate a final deal, with high-level commitments and a clear timeline. However, major substantive issues—especially Iran’s missile program and sanctions relief—remain unresolved, and past negotiations have collapsed over similar sticking points. While the deadline is technically extendable and two days beyond the 60-day window, the requirement for a concrete, measurable nuclear restriction makes a fully qualifying agreement by August 18 uncertain. Base rate of success for such high-stakes diplomacy is low, but current momentum slightly favors a deal.
The June 14, 2026, MOU provides a 60-day negotiation period, but as of now, there is no confirmed final deal signed or formally adopted by the August 18, 2026, deadline. Key factors include the ongoing negotiation period and the need for the final deal to meet specific criteria.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
El-Sayed has maintained a consistent polling lead and strong progressive backing, with prediction markets pricing his win probability near 80-85%. However, McMorrow's exit may consolidate support for Stevens, and the race remains competitive. The market consensus and polling data support a probability around 0.80, reflecting a highly likely but not certain outcome. [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/michigan-democratic-senate-primary-winner), [orrery.me](https://orrery.me/markets/will-abdul-el-sayed-win-the-2026-michigan-democratic-primary), [newsweek.com](https://www.newsweek.com/abdul-el-sayed-chances-winning-michigan-primary-mcmorrow-ends-race-12160118)
Abdul El-Sayed currently leads the 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate primary with consistent polling advantages and key endorsements, including the United Auto Workers. Although Haley Stevens has gained some institutional support and endorsements, El-Sayed maintains a strong lead in recent polls and market predictions. The primary is still weeks away, so late shifts could occur, but current data strongly favors El-Sayed's victory.
Abdul El-Sayed maintains a consistent lead in polling and has secured key endorsements, such as the UAW, which solidify his position as the frontrunner. While U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens remains a viable challenger with institutional support, the current polling averages and market sentiment [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/michigan-democratic-senate-primary-winner) [predictionedge.com](https://www.predictionedge.com/elections/us-senate/michigan-democratic-primary/) suggest a strong likelihood of an El-Sayed victory, though the race remains competitive enough to warrant a slight discount from the highest market estimates.
Abdul El-Sayed has consistently led in polls and has strong endorsements from key progressive figures and labor unions. Recent polls show him ahead of his main competitor, Haley Stevens, with a significant lead. The withdrawal of Mallory McMorrow from the race consolidates support behind El-Sayed, though Stevens still has institutional backing. The market consensus also reflects a high probability of El-Sayed winning the primary.
Abdul El-Sayed holds a consistent lead in polls and prediction markets ahead of the August 4, 2026 Democratic primary. Recent polls from Quantus Insights and Tulchin Research show him ahead of Haley Stevens, and he has key endorsements from progressive figures like Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, as well as the United Auto Workers [newsweek.com](https://www.newsweek.com/abdul-el-sayed-chances-winning-michigan-primary-mcmorrow-ends-race-12160118). Although Stevens has gained momentum after Mallory McMorrow dropped out and has strong institutional backing, including from Chuck Schumer and pro-Israel groups, El-Sayed remains the frontrunner [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/michigan-democratic-senate-primary-winner). Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi place his implied probability between 78% and 85%, suggesting strong confidence in his chances [tomorrowodds.com](https://tomorrowodds.com/q/will-abdul-el-sayed-win-the-2026-michigan-democratic-primary).
Abdul El-Sayed leads in polling and has key endorsements, with market odds (Orrery 82%, Polymarket 85%) indicating strong likelihood, though a small chance of late shifts remains.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Given the short remaining time and current price well above $60k, the chance of a dip to exactly $60,000 on a single 1-minute Binance candle is low. Prediction markets have fallen to single digits, reflecting the diminishing opportunity. I estimate an 8% probability, consistent with the lower end of market-implied odds.
Current market data and prediction markets show a relatively low probability (around 23-27%) that Bitcoin will dip to $60,000 in July 2026. Given Bitcoin's recent price trends and volatility, a dip to $60,000 is possible but not highly likely within the month. The probability is adjusted slightly upward from the market odds to account for Bitcoin's known volatility and potential for sudden price drops.
As of late July 2026, market sentiment and current price action suggest that a dip to $60,000 is possible but not the base case scenario. While prediction markets show varying probabilities, the consensus leans toward 'No' as the month nears its end, reflecting the volatility required to hit that specific threshold on the Binance BTC/USDT pair within the remaining timeframe.
The current market prices on prediction platforms like Orrery and Polymarket suggest a range of probabilities, with Orrery showing 23% and Polymarket showing 51.5%. Given the volatility of Bitcoin and the fact that it has been trading near all-time highs, a dip to $60,000 is plausible but not highly probable. The recent downward trend in the market price on Orrery (-37.5pp in the last 7 days) suggests a lower likelihood, but the higher probability on Polymarket indicates some confidence in a dip.
As of July 20, 2026, Bitcoin has not dipped to $60,000, and the current market-implied probability on Polymarket is around 23–27% [orrery.me](https://orrery.me/markets/will-bitcoin-dip-to-60000-in-july-20260706151220612-754), [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-dip-to-60000-in-july-20260706151220612-754). While short-term volatility could trigger a dip, the absence of major downward momentum and Bitcoin's recent price stability above $65,000 suggest limited downside risk for the remainder of July. I adjust slightly above the market consensus due to inherent crypto volatility, but assign low weight to outlier predictions above 50%.
Based on available market data, implied probabilities vary, but considering the uncertainty of Bitcoin's short-term price movements and the reliance on Binance 1-minute candles, a moderate probability is assigned.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
timeout after 30000ms
Current prediction markets show probabilities ranging from about 24.5% to 59%, with recent market prices around 32%. Given Bitcoin's historical volatility and the significant price increase required to reach $67,500 by July 2026, a moderate probability around 35% reflects both the potential for price spikes and the difficulty of sustaining such a high level within the month.
As of late July 2026, market sentiment on platforms like Polymarket and Orrery indicates a declining probability for Bitcoin reaching $67,500, with recent estimates hovering around 32%. Given that the month is nearly over and the price has not yet hit the target, the likelihood of a sudden surge in the final days is considered low by market participants.
The current market odds from Polymarket suggest a 59% chance of Bitcoin reaching $67,500 in July 2026. Other platforms like Orrery show a lower probability at 37%, indicating some uncertainty. Given the volatility and historical trends of Bitcoin, a mid-range probability is reasonable.
Bitcoin needs to reach $67,500 on a Binance 1-minute BTC/USDT candle during July 2026 to resolve yes. As of late July 2026, the price has not yet reached that level, but markets like Polymarket imply a probability near 59% [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-reach-67pt5k-in-july-2026), while Orrery reports a 32% exchange price but notes heavy trading volume and upward momentum [orrery.me](https://orrery.me/markets/will-bitcoin-reach-67pt5k-in-july-2026). The discrepancy suggests uncertainty, but the base rate of Bitcoin volatility and recent price action support a moderate likelihood. I adjust toward the higher end of implied probabilities, factoring in potential late-month volatility.
Based on available market data, there are varying probabilities from different platforms, and the resolution depends on Bitcoin reaching $67,500 in a Binance 1-minute candle during July.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
timeout after 30000ms
Current market data and prediction markets indicate roughly a 22-28% chance that Bitcoin will reach $70,000 in July 2026. Bitcoin is trading around $62,600 mid-July and needs about a 12% rally to hit $70,000, which is plausible but requires overcoming recent resistance levels. Given the volatility and historical price behavior, a 25% probability is a reasonable estimate.
As of July 30, 2026, the month is nearly over and Bitcoin has not reached the $70,000 threshold on the Binance BTC/USDT pair. Given the current market conditions and the limited time remaining in the month, it is statistically impossible for the price to reach this level before the July 31, 11:59 PM ET deadline.
Bitcoin's price in mid-July 2026 is around $62,600, requiring a ~12% rally to reach $70,000. Historical markets and prediction platforms suggest probabilities around 22-28%, indicating a moderate chance but not a high likelihood. The key factors include current price levels, historical volatility, and resistance levels.
As of mid-July 2026, Bitcoin is trading around $62,600, requiring a 12% increase to reach $70,000 [manifold.markets](https://manifold.markets/Fugazi/will-btc-cross-70000-before-the-end). Historical resistance in the high $60,000s and lack of strong catalysts reduce the likelihood. Prediction markets like Polymarket and Manifold price the probability between 22.5% and 23%, reflecting low trader confidence [polymarket.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-reach-70k-in-july-2026), [manifold.markets](https://manifold.markets/Fugazi/will-btc-cross-70000-before-the-end). Adjusting slightly for tail risk and volatility, the independent estimate is 25%.
The resolution depends on Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle high prices in July 2026. There's no strong current indicator of a clear push to $70k, so the probability is moderate.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
unparseable forecast JSON
Prediction markets currently imply a moderate probability (~57%) that Ethereum will reach $1,900 in July 2026, based on Binance ETH/USDT 1-minute candle data. Given typical price volatility and the fact that markets price this event close to even odds, a slightly higher probability of 60% is reasonable, reflecting some optimism about price movements reaching that level within the month.
The market has already been resolved as 'YES' by the UMA optimistic oracle, and current data from [orrery.me](https://orrery.me/markets/will-ethereum-reach-1900-in-july-2026-from-july-16) confirms that the event has occurred and the market is settled.
The implied probability from Polymarket is 57%, which is a strong indicator. Given that this is a real-money prediction market, it reflects the collective judgment of traders. The fact that the odds have been increasing (up 16 points in 24 hours and 10 points in 7 days) suggests growing confidence that Ethereum will reach $1,900 in July. However, market prices can be volatile, so this estimate should be taken with some caution.
As of July 29, 2026, the Polymarket prediction market for this event shows a 100% implied probability, indicating that Ethereum has already reached or exceeded $1,900 on Binance's ETH/USDT pair during a 1-minute candle in July [Orrery.me](https://orrery.me/markets/will-ethereum-reach-1900-in-july-2026-from-july-16). The market has been marked as resolved 'Yes' by the UMA oracle, which serves as the final settlement layer for Polymarket outcomes. Given that resolution is based strictly on Binance data and the oracle has confirmed the 'Yes' outcome, the event has effectively occurred.
Based on Polymarket data as of July 10, 2026, the implied probability of Ethereum reaching $1,900 in July is 57%.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
As of July 30, 2026, WTI crude oil futures are trading near $70 per barrel, far from the $100 threshold. With only two trading sessions left in July, a 43% price surge is extremely unlikely given the current market context of easing supply fears, rising inventories, and softening demand. Historical volatility and the absence of a plausible catalyst make a spike to $100 nearly impossible, though a tiny probability is retained for extreme tail events. The assigned probability of 0.2% reflects this assessment.
Current market data and trading platforms price the probability of WTI Crude Oil hitting $100 in July 2026 at around 4-9%, reflecting low likelihood. The price is currently near $70, significantly below $100, with easing geopolitical tensions and increased supply reducing upward pressure. While volatility remains due to geopolitical risks, the consensus and futures market data suggest a low chance of reaching $100 within the month.
WTI Crude Oil is currently trading significantly below the $100 threshold, near $70 per barrel. Market sentiment has shifted toward a surplus due to easing geopolitical tensions, specifically the US-Iran peace progress and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, making a rapid spike to $100 in the final days of July highly improbable.
Current market prices on Polymarket and Orrery indicate a low probability (4-8%) of WTI Crude Oil reaching $100 in July 2026. Recent trading data shows WTI futures near $70, with downward pressure due to rising global inventories and softening demand. While geopolitical risks could cause volatility, the base rate for such a significant price increase is low.
unparseable forecast JSON
Current WTI price is near $70, with geopolitical risks easing but supply/demand factors pointing to surplus. Market prices are low, so a moderate probability is assigned.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
As of late July 2026, WTI is around $70, and the month ends in a few days. A 28% surge to $90 in a 1-minute candle would require an extraordinary catalyst, which is not anticipated given the current bearish fundamentals (easing supply risks, rising inventories, weak demand). The very low market odds and the short remaining time horizon make a yes outcome highly improbable.
Current front-month WTI futures trade near $70, significantly below $90, with recent easing of supply disruptions and rising inventories reducing upward price pressure. While geopolitical risks and Middle East production restarts could cause volatility, the market consensus and projections suggest a return to surplus and softening demand, making a $90 spike in July unlikely but not impossible.
As of late June 2026, WTI Crude Oil is trading near $70 per barrel, significantly below the $90 threshold. Market sentiment has shifted due to easing supply concerns following a US-Iran peace deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with current projections pointing toward surplus conditions rather than a supply shock. Given the current price level and the lack of major catalysts to drive a 30% price increase within the month of July, the probability of hitting $90 is very low.
Current market prices and expert projections suggest a low probability of WTI Crude Oil reaching $90 in July 2026. Recent trends show a decline in prices due to easing supply disruptions and rising inventories, with futures trading near $70 as of June 2026. The market consensus and trading activity on platforms like Polymarket also reflect a low likelihood, with odds around 3.4%.
As of June 25, 2026, WTI crude oil futures are trading near $70, with downward pressure from rising global inventories, softening demand, and the unwinding of OPEC+ supply cuts [polymarket.copilot.markets](https://polymarket.copilot.markets/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-july-2026). Geopolitical risks have eased due to progress in a US-Iran peace deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, reducing the likelihood of a supply shock that could spike prices to $90. Market sentiment reflects a return to surplus conditions, and current futures pricing does not suggest a move to $90 in July 2026. Given the lack of catalysts and prevailing bearish fundamentals, the probability of WTI hitting a high of $90 is effectively zero.
Current WTI price is near $70, with downward pressure from inventories and demand. Geopolitical risks are present but supply fears eased. Polymarket shows low odds.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
As of late June 2026, front-month WTI futures are trading near $70, down sharply from Q2 peaks above $100, due to easing supply fears (US-Iran peace progress, Strait of Hormuz reopening), rising global inventories, and softening demand. Reaching $95 would require a roughly 36% surge from current levels, which is highly unlikely given the prevailing surplus outlook and OPEC+ supply increases. Polymarket odds are around 6%, reflecting the low probability of such a spike in July.
Current market data and futures prices indicate a low probability of WTI crude oil reaching $95 in July 2026, with futures trading near $70 and market-implied probabilities around 6-7%. Supply disruptions fears have eased due to progress in US-Iran relations and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, while global inventories are rising and demand is softening. Although geopolitical risks and volatility remain, the consensus and futures market pricing suggest a low chance of hitting $95 in that timeframe.
As of late June 2026, WTI crude oil is trading near $70 per barrel, significantly below the $95 threshold. Market sentiment is currently bearish due to rising global inventories, softening demand, and progress toward a US-Iran peace deal that has reduced geopolitical supply risk. Given that the month of July is nearly over and there are no major catalysts expected to drive a sudden 35% price surge, the probability of hitting $95 is extremely low.
Current market probabilities and expert projections suggest a low likelihood of WTI reaching $95 in July 2026. Front-month WTI futures are trading near $70, with downward pressure from rising inventories and softening demand. Geopolitical risks and supply growth further reduce the probability of such a significant price increase.
As of June 25, 2026, WTI crude oil futures are trading near $70, down from earlier peaks, due to rising global inventories, softening demand, and progress in US-Iran relations easing supply concerns [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-july-2026/will-wti-reach-95-in-july-2026?r=elite). EIA projections and market expectations point to a return to surplus conditions, with downward pressure from non-OPEC supply growth and OPEC+ unwind. While volatility persists due to geopolitical risks, reaching $95 would require a significant, unexpected shock, making the probability low.
Current WTI price is near $70, with rising inventories and softening demand. Geopolitical risks are present but recent progress has eased supply fears. Unlikely to hit $95 in July.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.