Given the short remaining timeframe (15 days) and the strong consensus from prediction markets (2% on Polymarket, 1.2% model probability) that Mojtaba Khamenei will remain de facto leader through August 31, the probability of a leadership change by that date is very low. The IRGC's entrenched power and lack of credible reports of an imminent ouster further support this estimate.
Current prediction markets and expert models consistently assign a very low probability (around 2%) to a leadership change in Iran by August 31, 2026. Despite some uncertainty due to Mojtaba Khamenei's public absence, the regime's institutional continuity and control by the IRGC suggest stability in leadership through this near-term period.
Current market data and expert consensus indicate a high degree of institutional stability following the transition to Mojtaba Khamenei. Given that the date is August 16, 2026, and the resolution deadline is August 31, 2026, there is insufficient time for a major political upheaval or official removal to occur, especially as the regime has successfully consolidated power through the IRGC and clerical structures.
The current consensus from prediction markets and analysts suggests a very low probability of an Iran leadership change by August 31, 2026. The primary factors include the recent installation of Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader, the regime's emphasis on stability, and the lack of credible reports indicating his removal or incapacitation. Prediction markets like Polymarket and Manifold show odds of 2% or lower for this timeframe, reflecting a strong expectation of continuity in leadership.
Despite Mojtaba Khamenei's prolonged public absence and speculation about his health, there is no credible reporting of his removal, resignation, or incapacitation. Institutional continuity, especially through IRGC control, and low prediction market odds suggest a very low but non-zero probability of a leadership change by August 31.
Low market probabilities from Polymarket, Manifold, and Octagon models, with no confirmed leadership change of Mojtaba Khamenei by August 31.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Multiple prediction markets (Polymarket, Polyguana, Frenzy Capital) consistently show a 91-94% implied probability that the ceasefire will hold through August 31, with no recent qualifying military actions reported. The high confidence reflects the absence of any air or missile strikes between Israel and Iran since the ceasefire began, and the specific exclusion of intercepted munitions and minor strikes from the definition of a qualifying action. Given the short remaining window (15 days) and the stability of the current situation, the base rate of such ceasefires holding in the near term is very high.
Current prediction markets consistently show a high probability (around 90-94%) that the ceasefire between Israel and Iran will continue through August 31, 2026. There have been no recent qualifying military actions reported, and ongoing diplomatic efforts support maintaining the ceasefire. The definition of qualifying military actions is strict, and minor conflicts or intercepted munitions do not count, further supporting the likelihood of the ceasefire holding.
Current market sentiment and the lack of recent direct, large-scale military escalations between Israel and Iran suggest a high likelihood that the status quo will be maintained through the end of August. While geopolitical tensions remain high, the specific criteria for a 'qualifying military action'—which excludes intercepted munitions and minor strikes—provide a buffer that supports the continuation of the ceasefire definition for this market.
The prediction markets overwhelmingly favor the continuation of the ceasefire, with probabilities around 92-94%. The lack of recent major military incidents and ongoing diplomatic efforts support this high probability. The key factors include the stability of the current ceasefire and the absence of qualifying military actions.
Prediction markets such as Polymarket and Polyguana show implied probabilities between 91% and 94% for a continued ceasefire between Israel and Iran through August 31, 2026 [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt-20260716224448963), [polyguana.com](https://polyguana.com/market/2952493). These reflect current sentiment based on the absence of recent qualifying military actions—defined as direct air or missile strikes impacting territory—and ongoing deterrence dynamics. While tensions persist, neither side has escalated to a direct, unambiguous strike that meets the threshold, supporting a high but not certain probability of continued ceasefire.
Prediction markets show high probabilities for the ceasefire continuing, with no recent qualifying military actions reported.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Polymarket prediction markets for a NATO-Russia military clash by August 31, 2026, show an implied probability of about 3% (based on the 'August 31' outcome at 3% and the 'June 30' market at 0.8%). The broader 'by December 31, 2026' market sits at 16%, suggesting the near-term risk is low. Base rates for direct military engagement between NATO and Russia remain very low despite ongoing tensions, and no credible reports indicate an imminent clash before the deadline.
Prediction markets like Polymarket, which aggregate real-money bets from informed traders, currently assign about a 16% chance of a NATO-Russia military clash by August 31, 2026. This relatively low probability reflects the high risks and deterrence factors involved, ongoing diplomatic efforts, and the absence of direct military engagements so far, despite tensions. Given the definition of a qualifying military encounter and current geopolitical dynamics, a clash is possible but not highly likely within this timeframe.
While the risk of escalation between NATO and Russia remains a significant geopolitical concern, both sides have demonstrated a strong desire to avoid direct kinetic conflict that could trigger Article 5. Prediction markets [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/nato-x-russia-military-clash-in-2025) and [polyautomate.org](https://polyautomate.org/prediction-odds/nato-x-russia-military-clash-by-december-31-2026-244) currently price this risk at a relatively low level, reflecting the high threshold for a 'military encounter' as defined by the market criteria, which excludes common incidents like airspace violations or non-weaponized collisions.
The prediction market on Polymarket currently assigns a 3% probability to a NATO-Russia military clash by August 31, 2026. This low probability reflects the general consensus among traders that such an event is unlikely in the near term, given the current geopolitical climate and historical trends. Key factors include the high stakes of direct conflict, the presence of deterrence mechanisms, and the lack of immediate provocations that could escalate to direct military engagement.
The definition of 'military encounter' requires direct use of force such as missile strikes or gunfire between NATO and Russian military forces. Incidents like drone shootdowns qualify, but non-violent actions like airspace violations or warning shots do not. Current prediction markets on [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/nato-x-russia-military-clash-in-2025) reflect a 2.8% implied probability for a clash by August 31, 2026, based on real-money trading and consensus reporting. This aligns with cautious but contained escalation patterns observed so far, such as the 2023 Black Sea drone incident, which did not escalate to direct conflict.
Polymarket odds for August 31 are low, ISS report suggests potential challenge by 2027, and no recent confirmed military encounters qualify under the definition.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
The severe disruption to Strait of Hormuz traffic, with current transits at a tiny fraction of normal levels, combined with only 15 days left until the resolution date, makes a return to the 60-ship threshold virtually impossible. The ongoing military escalation and lack of any credible path to rapid normalization support a very low probability, consistent with the lower end of prediction market odds.
Current data and market sentiment indicate that Strait of Hormuz traffic remains severely disrupted due to ongoing US-Iran military tensions and naval blockades, with transit levels at only a small fraction of normal. The prediction market on Polymarket assigns about a 14% chance that traffic will return to normal by August 31, 2026, reflecting low but non-negligible optimism for resolution or easing of conflict. Given the geopolitical risks and recent attacks, a quick return to normal traffic is unlikely but not impossible.
Current transit levels in the Strait of Hormuz remain significantly depressed at approximately 13-22% of pre-conflict averages due to ongoing U.S.-Iran military tensions and recent vessel attacks as of mid-August 2026. With only two weeks remaining until the August 31 deadline, a rapid recovery to the required 7-day moving average of 60 transit calls is highly improbable given the persistent security risks and lack of de-escalation.
The current market odds on Polymarket suggest a very low probability of Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by August 31, with the leading outcome priced at 2%. Ongoing US-Iran military escalation and recent vessel attacks have kept transit levels at a fraction of normal, making a return to normal traffic unlikely in the short term.
Traffic remains severely disrupted due to active military tensions and recent attacks, with throughput far below the 60-ship threshold. The Polymarket consensus, which aggregates trader beliefs, assigns only a 2% chance to normalization by August 31, 2026, consistent with current conditions and low base rates of recovery in ongoing conflict scenarios.
Current transit levels are very low due to ongoing US-Iran military escalation, and market odds imply a 14% chance of meeting the 60 transits threshold by August 31.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Based on current market odds and the short remaining timeframe, the probability that the 7-day moving average of transit calls reaches 60 or more by September 30 is low. Geopolitical risks in the Strait of Hormuz continue to suppress traffic, and a rapid normalization to the threshold within six weeks appears unlikely. I assign a 15% probability, aligning with the prevailing market sentiment while accounting for the possibility of a sudden de-escalation.
Current market data from multiple prediction platforms indicates a low probability (around 14%) that the Strait of Hormuz traffic will return to normal levels (7-day moving average of 60 or more transit calls) by September 30, 2026. Given ongoing geopolitical tensions and historical fluctuations in shipping traffic, the likelihood remains low. The market consensus and data from IMF Portwatch support this low probability estimate.
The market sentiment, as reflected in current prediction platforms, consistently places the probability of reaching the required transit threshold at approximately 14%. Given the geopolitical tensions in the region and the specific technical requirement of the IMF Portwatch 7-day moving average, there is little evidence to suggest a rapid return to the specified traffic levels before the September 30, 2026, deadline.
The current Polymarket odds suggest a 14% probability of the Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by September 30, 2026. This aligns with the implied probability from other sources. The base rate for such disruptions to resolve within a few months is generally low, and there is no specific evidence suggesting a significant improvement in the near term.
Current Polymarket odds imply a 14% probability of the 7-day moving average of transit calls reaching 60 or above by September 30, 2026 [polymarket.com](https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/660109). The IMF Portwatch data is the definitive resolution source, and no recent data has indicated sustained traffic levels near the threshold. Given the lack of significant escalation or de-escalation in the region recently, and the current low market-implied probability, the base rate suggests low likelihood.
Market odds from Polymarket and other sources indicate a low probability, with most pricing 'Yes' around 14-15%. The resolution depends on specific IMF Portwatch data criteria, which currently suggests a lower likelihood.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
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The US reinstated the blockade in July 2026 and has signaled it can maintain it indefinitely, with no strong indications of an imminent official announcement ending it by August 22. Prediction markets show a low probability (~21%) for an announcement by this date, reflecting the current geopolitical stance and ongoing tensions. Economic pressures and diplomatic efforts exist but have not yet produced a clear path to ending the blockade imminently.
Current official statements from the U.S. government, including Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, indicate that the U.S. intends to maintain the naval blockade indefinitely to exert economic pressure on Iran. Despite market speculation regarding potential mediation, there is no evidence of an imminent official announcement to lift the blockade before the August 22 deadline, and the administration's rhetoric remains focused on escalation rather than termination.
The current market odds on Polymarket and Frenzy Capital suggest a low probability of the US announcing the end of the Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026. The key factors include the US's stated ability to maintain the blockade indefinitely, the lack of recent diplomatic breakthroughs, and the high economic and political stakes involved. The market consensus reflects skepticism about a resolution by the specified date.
unparseable forecast JSON
Market odds from Polymarket and Frenzy Capital show low probability for the August 22 deadline, and the US has signaled it could maintain the blockade indefinitely.
Mean of 4/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 4/6 valid model forecasts.
The Polymarket prediction market currently shows a 19% probability for the 'August 31' outcome, reflecting a sharp decline from 32% just days earlier due to Iran's August 10 statement refusing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz without U.S. concessions and the absence of any qualifying U.S. announcement. The U.S. has signaled it can maintain the blockade indefinitely, and with only 15 days left until the resolution date, the window for a clear, official announcement ending the blockade is very narrow. The 19% market price is a well-calibrated crowd-sourced estimate that accounts for the low likelihood of a sudden policy reversal given the current geopolitical impasse.
Current prediction markets, which aggregate real-time information and trader sentiment, assign about a 19% chance that the US will announce an end to the Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026. Recent developments show no official US signals toward ending the blockade, and Iran's firm stance on reopening the Strait of Hormuz only with US concessions further reduces near-term prospects. The US has indicated it can maintain the blockade indefinitely, and economic and geopolitical pressures suggest continuation rather than termination in the short term.
The U.S. government has recently signaled an intent to maintain the naval blockade indefinitely, and there have been no official indications of a policy reversal. With the August 31 deadline approaching and Iran maintaining a firm stance against concessions, the likelihood of a formal announcement ending the blockade within the remaining timeframe is low.
The probability is based on the recent sharp decline in Polymarket odds to 32.0%, driven by Iran's stance and lack of U.S. policy signals. The U.S. has indicated it can maintain the blockade indefinitely, and no official announcements have been made to end it. The current market sentiment and geopolitical context suggest a low likelihood of the blockade ending by August 31, 2026.
As of August 10, 2026, the Polymarket contract for a U.S. announcement ending the Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026, had fallen to 32.0%, down 25 percentage points in a week [global-political-spotlight.com](https://www.global-political-spotlight.com/articles/polymarket/briefs/odds-of-u-s-declaring-end-to-iran-blockade-fall-sharply-iran-s-aug-10-stance-and-lack-of-u-s-policy-signals-202608). This shift follows Iran’s August 10 statement refusing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz without U.S. concessions, signaling a continued impasse. No official U.S. communication has indicated a reversal of the blockade, and recent statements have focused on unrelated matters. While the U.S. claims it can maintain the blockade indefinitely [cbc.ca](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/hegseth-us-blockade-iran-9.7306636), the lack of diplomatic progress and rising oil prices ($87.68/bbl) suggest a near-term resolution is unlikely.
Limited official announcements, U.S. indication of indefinite blockade, Iran's stance on concessions, and falling market odds contribute to a low probability.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Based on Polymarket data, the probability of Bitcoin dipping to $50,000 in August is only 7.7%, while a dip to $62,500 is at 90.5%, suggesting the current price is near or above $62,500. A drop to $50,000 would require a decline of roughly 20% or more from current levels, which is a rare event in a single month without a severe market shock. Historical base rates for such large monthly declines are low, and the market consensus aligns with a single-digit probability. I estimate 8% to reflect the low base rate and market odds, while acknowledging tail risk from unforeseen events.
Current prediction markets on Polymarket assign about a 7.7% chance that Bitcoin will dip to $50,000 in August 2026 based on Binance 1-minute candle data. Given Bitcoin's historical volatility and recent price trends, a dip to $50,000 is possible but not highly likely within that month. The low probability reflects market consensus and recent price stability above that level.
Current market data from [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-dip-to-50k-in-august-2026) indicates a 7.7% probability for Bitcoin hitting $50,000 in August 2026. Given that the month is already mid-way through and Bitcoin has maintained higher support levels, the likelihood of a sudden 20%+ drop to $50,000 remains low, consistent with current market sentiment and volatility expectations.
The current market odds on Polymarket for Bitcoin dipping to $50,000 in August are 7.7% [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-dip-to-50k-in-august-2026). Given that the market for a higher threshold ($55,000) is at 14.5% [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-dip-to-55k-in-august-2026) and the market for a lower threshold ($62,500) is at 90.5% [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-dip-to-62pt5k-in-august-2026-from-august-3), it suggests a low probability for Bitcoin to dip to $50,000. The base rate for such a significant dip is low, and the specific evidence from market odds supports this.
As of 2026-08-16, Bitcoin has not dipped below $55,000 in August, with Polymarket pricing a 14.5% chance of a dip to $55,000 [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-dip-to-55k-in-august-2026) and only 7.7% for a dip to $50,000 [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-dip-to-50k-in-august-2026). The current price trajectory and market sentiment suggest strong support above $50,000, making a drop to that level increasingly unlikely with limited time remaining in August.
The Polymarket market for Bitcoin dipping to $50,000 in August currently has a probability of 7.7%.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
As of mid-August 2026, no dip to $60,000 has occurred yet, and Polymarket odds around 39.5% reflect a significant but not dominant chance for the remainder of the month. The remaining 15 days allow for a sharp drop if market conditions turn bearish, but base rates of major drawdowns in a given month are modest. The market's aggregation of diverse information supports a probability near the current odds, adjusted slightly downward due to the absence of a dip in the first half and the typical decay of probability over a fixed horizon.
Current prediction markets on Polymarket, which aggregate real-money trader beliefs and have a strong track record of accuracy, assign about a 39.5% probability that Bitcoin will dip to $60,000 or below at any point during August 2026 based on Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle lows. Given the volatility of Bitcoin and the market's collective wisdom, this is a reasonable estimate.
The probability is based on current market sentiment and trading data from [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-dip-to-60k-in-august-2026), which reflects a 39.5% likelihood of Bitcoin hitting the $60,000 threshold during August. Given that the month is already mid-way through and historical volatility has not pushed the price to this level yet, the market remains cautious about a significant dip.
Polymarket's prediction markets have a strong track record of accuracy, and the current odds for Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 in August are at 39.5% [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-dip-to-60k-in-august-2026). However, the odds for specific dates or shorter periods within August are significantly lower, suggesting a lower probability for a dip to $60,000. The base rate for such a dip is adjusted downward due to the low odds for specific periods within the month.
The current trading probability on Polymarket, which aggregates real-money bets from traders, indicates a 39.5% chance that Bitcoin will dip to $60,000 in August 2026 [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-dip-to-60k-in-august-2026). This reflects collective market expectations based on available information and price action. Polymarket has historically shown strong predictive accuracy, especially near resolution dates. Given no contradictory fundamental or technical evidence, this probability aligns with the best estimate of the true likelihood.
The Polymarket market for Bitcoin dipping to $60k in August has a current probability of 39.5%, with resolution based on Binance 1-minute BTC/USDT low prices.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
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Current market data and prediction markets assign about a 14% probability that WTI Crude Oil will hit $95 or higher in August 2026. This relatively low probability reflects ongoing supply-demand balance, with OPEC+ output increases and robust non-OPEC production capping prices, while geopolitical tensions and inventory draws provide some upward support. Historical context from July 2026 shows prices settling in the low-to-mid $80s after de-escalation of Middle East tensions, making a $95 spike less likely but still possible due to volatility.
Current market conditions for WTI Crude Oil in August 2026 are characterized by a supply-demand balance that has pushed prices into the low-to-mid $80s. With the recent de-escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and increased production from OPEC+, the likelihood of a significant price spike to $95 is low, consistent with current market sentiment and historical price trends from July 2026.
The current market odds on Polymarket and Worldstreet suggest a 14% probability of WTI Crude Oil hitting $95 in August 2026. This aligns with the base rate observed in similar markets. Key factors include geopolitical tensions, OPEC+ output decisions, and non-OPEC production levels, which are likely to cap significant upside movements.
Current market pricing on prediction platforms such as Polymarket and Worldstreet indicates a consensus probability of around 14–15% for WTI Crude Oil reaching $95 in August 2026 [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-august-2026). This reflects a balance between upside risks from geopolitical tensions and supply constraints, and downside pressures from softer demand, rising non-OPEC production, and OPEC+ output decisions [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-wti-reach-95-in-august-2026). The July 2026 outcome, where WTI failed to hit $95 due to de-escalation in the Middle East and increased supply, suggests a cautious outlook for August [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-july-2026).
WTI faces a supply-demand tug-of-war with OPEC+ capping upside and geopolitical tensions providing floors, but softer Chinese demand and economic uncertainty weigh on prices. Current implied probabilities are moderate.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
The Fed has not raised rates since July 2023 and has been on hold or cutting since then. A 25 bps hike in September 2026 would require a significant and unexpected reacceleration of inflation or other economic shock, which appears unlikely given current trends. Polymarket pricing of ~6% YES is a strong signal, but I nudge slightly higher to 0.07 to account for tail risks.
Prediction markets like Polymarket, which aggregate real-time trader sentiment and have a strong track record of accuracy, currently assign about a 6% probability to a 25 bps rate increase after the September 2026 FOMC meeting. Given the low liquidity and strong market consensus against an increase, combined with the Federal Reserve's recent cautious approach to rate changes, the likelihood of a 25 bps increase is low but not zero.
Current market data from prediction platforms like [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-september) and [polyautomate.org](https://polyautomate.org/prediction-odds/will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-september-2026-meeting) indicate a very low probability of a 25 bps rate increase, with the consensus heavily favoring a rate decrease. The market reflects a strong expectation that the Federal Reserve will prioritize easing rather than tightening in the September 2026 meeting.
Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, and the current market probability for a 25 bps increase in interest rates after the September 2026 meeting is 6.0%. This low probability is supported by the fact that the leading outcome in the related market is a 25 bps decrease, with a 100% probability assigned to it.
The consensus across prediction markets and economic indicators strongly favors a rate cut or hold in September 2026. A 25 bps increase is considered highly unlikely, with Polymarket pricing a rate hike at less than 1% [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-september).
Polymarket traders currently assign a 6.0% probability to the Fed increasing interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting, with YES trading near 6.0¢ and NO near 92.0¢.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
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Current prediction markets, such as Polymarket, assign about a 56% probability to no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting, reflecting a modest lean toward holding rates steady. This is consistent with the uncertainty and mixed signals from economic data and Fed communications nearly two years ahead, where the market treats a hold and a move as roughly competitive outcomes.
Current prediction market data from [polyrama.io](https://polyrama.io/markets/will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-september-2026-meeting-615) indicates a strong consensus among traders that the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates during the September 2026 meeting. While other sources show varying liquidity and sentiment, the high volume and active trading on Polymarket suggest that 'no change' is the most likely outcome based on current economic expectations.
Prediction markets show mixed signals, with Polymarket indicating a 39.5% chance of no change [prededge.com](https://prededge.com/markets/finance/61785150-will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-september-2026-meeting) and another source showing 56% [tomorrowodds.com](https://tomorrowodds.com/q/will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-september-2026-meeting-615). The base rate for no change in Fed rates is historically low, but recent economic data and Fed communications suggest uncertainty, leaning slightly toward a rate adjustment.
As of July 2026, prediction markets such as Polymarket imply a 56% probability of no change in the federal funds rate after the September 2026 FOMC meeting [tomorrowodds.com](https://tomorrowodds.com). While market odds are not a perfect forecast, they aggregate diverse information and trader expectations about future economic conditions, Fed communications, and inflation trends. Given the long time horizon—over two years before resolution—uncertainty remains high, and the Federal Reserve's decisions will depend on evolving data on inflation, employment, and growth.
Polymarket odds show 39.5% for no change, while another market has 100% chance of a 25 bps decrease. Tomorrowodds has 56% for no change, balancing these factors.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.