Given the short time remaining until August 31, 2026, and the apparent stability of Mojtaba Khamenei's leadership backed by the IRGC and Assembly of Experts, a sudden leadership change is very unlikely. Prediction markets consistently price this outcome at around 2%, reflecting a consensus that the regime will maintain continuity through this near-term window. There are no major reported health crises or elite fractures that would trigger a change within two weeks.
Mojtaba Khamenei was appointed as Supreme Leader in March 2026 following the assassination of Ali Khamenei. Since then, there has been a strong institutional preference for regime stability, and no credible reports suggest imminent removal or resignation by August 31, 2026. Although there are some health concerns and internal elite dynamics, the rapid and IRGC-backed transition has anchored low near-term change probabilities, with prediction markets pricing the chance of leadership change by August 31 at around 2-4%.
Mojtaba Khamenei was recently installed as Supreme Leader following a constitutional process backed by the IRGC and the Assembly of Experts, which prioritizes regime stability. Given that today is August 18, 2026, and the resolution date is August 31, 2026, there is insufficient time for a major internal upheaval or a new succession process to occur, and prediction markets currently price this outcome at approximately 2%.
The prediction markets consistently show very low probabilities for an Iranian leadership change by August 31, with Polymarket at 2% [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/iran-leadership-change-by/iran-leadership-change-by-june-30-689-922), Manifold at 4% [manifold.markets](https://manifold.markets/Mochi/iran-leadership-change-by), and Predictstamp at 3% [predictstamp.com](https://www.predictstamp.com/markets/iran-leadership-change-by/). The recent succession process was smooth and backed by key institutions, indicating stability. There are no immediate signs of internal strife or external pressures that would trigger a leadership change in the near term.
Prediction markets such as Polymarket and PredictStamp show the probability of a leadership change in Iran by August 31, 2026, at around 2% [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/events/iran-leadership-change-by), with similar figures on [predictstamp.com](https://www.predictstamp.com/markets/iran-leadership-change-by/). This reflects a consensus of low expectation among informed traders, despite ongoing political tensions. The Iranian regime has demonstrated resilience in past crises, and no credible reports as of August 2026 indicate imminent leadership turnover. Base rates for autocratic regime survival also support a low probability of change over a short horizon.
Polymarket odds as of August 3, 2026, for Iran leadership change by August 31 are 2%, reflecting low near-term change probability.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Current Strait of Hormuz traffic is at 13-22% of pre-conflict levels (roughly 2 million DWT vs 10 million historical), with recent attacks on August 13-14 and ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions. The 7-day moving average of transit calls is far below the 60-ship threshold needed to resolve Yes. With only 13 days remaining until August 31, a rapid return to normal is extremely unlikely absent a major diplomatic breakthrough, which has no current signs. Polymarket odds of ~1-2% reflect this low probability.
Current data and market prices indicate that the Strait of Hormuz traffic remains significantly below normal levels, with daily transit calls at roughly 13-22% of pre-conflict levels and no signs of a near-term return to normal traffic volumes. Prediction markets and traders assign only about a 1-2% chance that traffic will return to normal (7-day average of 60 or more ship transits) by August 31, 2026, reflecting ongoing geopolitical tensions, blockade enforcement, and elevated risks that suppress shipping activity.
Given the current date of August 18, 2026, there are only 13 days remaining for the 7-day moving average of transit calls to reach the threshold of 60. The ongoing US-Iran conflict, recent attacks on tankers, and the resulting high war-risk insurance premiums have severely depressed traffic, making a rapid, sustained recovery to pre-crisis levels highly improbable within this short timeframe.
The current market odds on Polymarket and other prediction platforms consistently show a very low probability (around 1-2%) for the Strait of Hormuz traffic to return to normal by August 31. Ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions, recent vessel attacks, and elevated war-risk insurance premiums have kept transit levels at 13-22% of pre-conflict levels, with daily throughput near 2 million DWT versus the historical 10 million average. The requirement for a 7-day moving average of 60 or more transit calls is highly unlikely given the current conditions and recent data showing nine or fewer vessel passages on some days.
Persistent U.S.-Iran tensions, recent attacks, and sustained low vessel transits indicate minimal chance of reaching a 7-day moving average of 60+ ships by August 31. Market-implied probabilities and operational barriers like insurance and naval blockades support a very low likelihood of normalization.
Current transit levels are very low, around 13-22% of pre-conflict, and market odds are approximately 2%.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
The prediction market consensus is around 12-14% for Yes, reflecting a low expectation that the 7-day moving average of transit calls will reach 60 by September 30. Current geopolitical tensions and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz (e.g., Iran-related risks) have depressed traffic well below normal levels, and with only about six weeks left, a rapid recovery to the 60-threshold seems unlikely. Base rates for such disruptions suggest that recovery often takes months, and no major diplomatic breakthrough or security guarantee has emerged to accelerate a return to normal traffic.
Current prediction markets and aggregated odds from multiple sources consistently price the probability of Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal (defined as a 7-day average of 60 or more ship arrivals) by September 30, 2026, at around 12-14%. This low probability reflects ongoing geopolitical tensions, regional instability, and recent traffic data trends that have not shown a sustained return to normal levels. Given the consistency of market data and the complexity of factors affecting traffic, a probability near 14% is reasonable.
The market sentiment, as reflected in prediction platforms like Polymarket, consistently prices the probability of this event at approximately 12-14%. Given the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the region that have suppressed shipping traffic, there is no clear indication of a rapid return to the required threshold of 60 transit calls by the end of September 2026.
Prediction markets consistently price the probability of Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by September 30, 2026, at around 10-15%. This suggests a low likelihood of the event occurring, likely due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and disruptions in the region. The base rate for such disruptions to resolve quickly is also low, further supporting this estimate.
Current prediction market odds from Polymarket and Marketss indicate a 12-14% implied probability of the 7-day moving average of transit calls reaching 60 or above by September 30, 2026, as tracked by IMF Portwatch [polymarket.com](https://pdata.world/events/polymarket/660109) [marketss.com](https://marketss.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-september-30-20260702154339440). These markets reflect aggregated trader expectations and are generally efficient for geopolitical indicators. The low probability suggests persistent risks to shipping traffic, likely due to regional tensions or disruptions, despite no major reported closures recently.
Market odds from Polymarket and Marketss show a low probability of the 7-day moving average of transit calls reaching 60 by September 30.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
The Polymarket contract for 'US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026' shows a price of ~3¢ (3% probability) as of the search date, and the broader event market assigns 73% to a December 31 announcement, indicating traders expect no near-term end. A recent Reuters report (Aug 13) quotes Defense Secretary Hegseth stating the US can maintain the blockade 'indefinitely,' directly contradicting an imminent suspension. Given the current date is August 18 and no official announcement has been made, the probability of a sudden reversal within four days is extremely low.
Current prediction markets show a very low probability (around 6%) that the US will announce the end of the Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026. Official statements from US defense officials indicate the blockade can be maintained indefinitely, and while peace talks are ongoing, no definitive announcement ending the blockade is expected by this early date. The market and expert consensus suggest the earliest likely announcement would be closer to the end of August or later in the year.
As of August 13, 2026, the U.S. government has explicitly stated its intention to maintain the naval blockade of Iran indefinitely, with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirming the military's capacity and commitment to this policy [reuters.com]. Given that the resolution deadline is August 22, 2026, and there is no indication of a shift in policy, the probability of an official announcement ending the blockade within this very short timeframe is extremely low, consistent with current prediction market pricing [polymarket.com].
The U.S. has recently reaffirmed its commitment to maintaining the naval blockade on Iran indefinitely, with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stating that the U.S. Navy can sustain the blockade for an extended period. The prediction markets also reflect a very low probability (3-6%) of the blockade ending by August 22, 2026, aligning with the U.S. government's stated stance.
Based on official U.S. statements indicating the blockade will continue indefinitely and prediction market odds showing only a 3% chance of an announcement by August 22, the likelihood of a qualifying public announcement before the deadline is very low. Diplomatic activity exists but has not yet produced an official U.S. declaration, and the timing favors a later resolution.
Polymarket odds for a US announcement by August 22 are very low (around 3-6%), and recent US statements indicate an indefinite blockade, making a near-term announcement unlikely.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
unparseable forecast JSON
The US has publicly stated it can maintain the naval blockade on Iran indefinitely, and recent announcements indicate a firm stance on continuing economic pressure. While there is ongoing mediation and some market optimism about a potential end, the blockade was reinstated only recently (July 13, 2026), and no official announcement has been made to end it by August 31. The short timeframe and current geopolitical tensions reduce the likelihood of an official termination announcement by the deadline.
While there are reports of ongoing diplomatic efforts and mediation by Pakistan, the U.S. administration has recently reaffirmed its commitment to maintaining the naval blockade indefinitely, with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth explicitly stating that the U.S. military has the capability and intent to continue the operation [reuters.com]. Given the short timeframe remaining until August 31 and the administration's current hardline stance, an official announcement terminating the blockade appears unlikely in the immediate future.
The prediction markets show a range of probabilities, with the highest at 79% [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-byptptpt-20260713152715080/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-august-22-2026) and the lowest at 34% [frenzycap.com](https://www.frenzycap.com/predictions/polymarket/0x47ec761ae98d7c28b20c0222f1507e3af0f198a904f86b4a264b2e987f0b80c7). The US has stated it can maintain the blockade indefinitely [reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-eyes-indefinite-iran-naval-blockade-oil-supply-shortfall-deepens-2026-08-13/), but there are ongoing ceasefire talks and economic pressures that could lead to an announcement. The median of the market probabilities and the current diplomatic context suggest a 55% chance of an announcement by August 31, 2026.
Recent reports indicate that the U.S. has reimposed a naval blockade on Iran as of July 13, 2026, with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stating the U.S. can maintain it indefinitely [reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-eyes-indefinite-iran-naval-blockade-oil-supply-shortfall-deepens-2026-08-13/). However, diplomatic efforts are underway, with Pakistan mediating and a signing ceremony tentatively planned in Switzerland [lines.com](https://www.lines.com/prediction-markets/politics/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-byptptpt-20260713152715080). The blockade's end hinges on a clear, official U.S. announcement, not just diplomatic progress. Prediction markets show divergent views, with Polymarket implying ~34% chance for resolution by August 31, while Lines.com estimates 57.5% [frenzycap.com](https://www.frenzycap.com/predictions/polymarket/0x47ec761ae98d7c28b20c0222f1507e3af0f198a904f86b4a264b2e987f0b80c7), [lines.com](https://www.lines.com/prediction-markets/politics/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-byptptpt-20260713152715080). Given the high economic stakes and active negotiations, but also the U.S. stance on maintaining pressure, I estimate a 58% chance of an official announcement before the deadline.
The US has recently stated it could maintain the blockade indefinitely, but there is incentive for a deal before August 31 due to global oil supply issues. Market odds for August 31 range from 57.5% to 73%.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
The available evidence shows that while an extension may have been agreed informally, the strict criteria require a public and official announcement from both parties. As of August 18, no such announcement has been made, and the likelihood of both governments issuing a clear declarative statement by August 20 appears low, given the ongoing tensions and lack of verified official confirmation.
The initial MOU between the US and Iran has expired amid mutual accusations of violations and no clear willingness to extend the agreement. Iranian officials have indicated no decision to restart negotiations, and the US has continued military actions and sanctions, undermining trust. Recent leadership changes in Iran suggest a tougher stance, reducing the likelihood of extension. However, ongoing mediation efforts and the strategic importance of a deal keep a small chance alive for a last-minute extension.
The Memorandum of Understanding has effectively collapsed, with both the United States and Iran publicly accusing the other of violating its terms. Iranian officials have explicitly stated that there was no ceasefire to extend and have indicated no current intention to restart negotiations, making a formal mutual extension by the August 20 deadline extremely unlikely.
Recent reports from Pakistani government sources indicate that both the US and Iran have agreed to extend the 60-day ceasefire, which is a key component of the negotiation period. However, neither side has publicly confirmed the extension, and there are ongoing disputes over the terms of the agreement. The likelihood of an official announcement is high given the reported mutual consent, but the lack of public confirmation introduces some uncertainty.
The 60-day negotiation period expired on August 17, 2026, without a final agreement, and both sides have accused each other of violating the MOU. Iranian officials have denied ongoing talks or plans to extend, and leadership changes in Iran suggest a harder line [aljazeera.com](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/16/us-iran-mou-is-set-to-expire-what-to-know). The U.S. has continued military actions and not lifted sanctions, indicating mutual consent for extension is highly unlikely. Although some prediction markets show higher odds, the lack of official statements or diplomatic progress makes a formal extension improbable.
The 60-day negotiation period expired without a final deal, with both sides divided and no mutual consent for extension. Ongoing disputes and Iranian leadership changes suggest low likelihood.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Polymarket odds for Bitcoin dipping to $55,000 in August are currently 14.5%, reflecting a well-traded market. As of August 18, Bitcoin has already dipped to $62,500 (90.5% probability for that level), indicating downward pressure, but reaching $55,000 requires an additional ~12% decline in the remaining 13 days. Historical volatility and current market conditions suggest this is possible but not likely, aligning with the 14.5% market estimate.
Current prediction market odds on Polymarket assign about a 14.5% chance that Bitcoin will dip to $55,000 or below in August 2026 based on Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle lows. This reflects collective market participant sentiment and trading activity, which tends to be a reliable indicator. Given the relatively low odds and the lack of strong contrary evidence, a probability near 15% is reasonable.
The current market sentiment on Polymarket reflects a 14.5% probability that Bitcoin will touch $55,000 during August 2026. Given that Bitcoin is currently trading well above this level, a dip to $55,000 would require significant downward volatility, which is currently considered unlikely by market participants as evidenced by the low probability assigned to this outcome compared to higher price thresholds.
The current market consensus on Polymarket suggests a 14.5% chance of Bitcoin dipping to $55,000 in August. This is supported by the fact that the leading outcome for Bitcoin's price in August is $65,000 with 100% probability, indicating a strong expectation that Bitcoin will not drop significantly below this level. Additionally, the probability of Bitcoin dipping to $62,500 is much higher at 90.5%, while the probability of it dipping to $45,000 is very low at 1.8%. These factors suggest that a dip to $55,000 is possible but not highly likely.
The current market price on Polymarket for this event is 14.5%, which reflects real-money bets on the likelihood of Bitcoin dipping to $55,000 in August 2026. This level of probability aligns with other related markets, such as a 1.8% chance of dipping to $45,000 [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-dip-to-45k-in-august-2026), indicating that lower price levels are considered less likely. Given the aggregation of trader knowledge and incentives for accurate prediction, I defer to this market-implied probability as a well-calibrated estimate.
The Polymarket market for Bitcoin dipping to $55,000 in August currently has a 14.5% probability, based on the provided data.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Polymarket markets for Bitcoin reaching $65,000 in August 2026 are currently at 100% probability, with one contract specifically for August 5 also at 100%. This confirms that a Binance 1-minute candle has already recorded a High of at least $65,000 during August. Therefore, the question is effectively resolved to Yes with certainty.
Market data from Polymarket shows a 100% probability that Bitcoin will reach $65,000 on Binance BTC/USDT at least once during August 2026. Given the market's liquidity, volume, and the fact that the resolution depends solely on Binance's 1-minute candle highs, this is a strong indicator that the price target will be met.
As of August 18, 2026, prediction markets on Polymarket and related tracking sites indicate that Bitcoin has already reached the $65,000 threshold on the Binance BTC/USDT pair, with markets reflecting a 100% probability of this event having occurred. Given the resolution criteria depend on any 1-minute candle hitting this price during August, and the market data confirms this has been met, the outcome is effectively certain.
Prediction markets like Polymarket have shown high accuracy in forecasting events, and the current odds for Bitcoin reaching $65,000 in August are at 100% on Polymarket. This high market confidence, along with significant trading volume, suggests a strong likelihood of the event occurring. Additionally, the market for Bitcoin reaching $67,500 in August shows a 47.5% probability, indicating that $65,000 is considered a more achievable target within the same timeframe.
Multiple prediction markets on Polymarket indicate a 100% probability that Bitcoin will reach $65,000 in August 2026, based on Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle data [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-bitcoin-reach-65k-in-august-2026). This consensus reflects strong market confidence, supported by current price trends and trading volume. The resolution criteria are clearly defined and aligned with observable on-chain data from Binance.
Polymarket currently gives Bitcoin a 100% chance of reaching $65,000 in August based on the market's pricing.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
timeout after 30000ms
United Russia (ER) is currently the clear frontrunner in prediction markets with about a 68% probability of gaining the most seats in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election. This is supported by their entrenched parliamentary majority, control of administrative resources, and consistent dominance in recent elections. Although there is some uncertainty and potential for shifts, structural advantages and current polling trends strongly favor United Russia.
United Russia maintains a dominant position in the Russian political system, controlling the vast majority of seats in the State Duma and benefiting from significant institutional and administrative advantages. Given the current political climate and the party's historical performance in securing seats through both party-list and single-member districts, it is overwhelmingly likely that they will retain the most seats, and highly probable they will gain or maintain the highest seat count compared to any other party. Prediction markets [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/russia-parliamentary-election-winner) and [cryptoslate.com](https://cryptoslate.com/predictions/market/russia-parliamentary-election-winner/) consistently reflect this near-certainty.
Prediction markets consistently show United Russia (ER) as the strong favorite, with Polymarket at 99% [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/russia-parliamentary-election-winner) and other sources at 71-73% [worldeventtrading.com](https://www.worldeventtrading.com/predictions/which-party-will-gain-most-seats-in-russian-parliamentary-election-odds-2026-09-20). While polls indicate declining support, the Kremlin's control over the electoral process and historical manipulation suggest a high likelihood of United Russia maintaining dominance. However, the rise of New People and internal party conflicts introduce some uncertainty.
United Russia is highly likely to gain the most seats due to entrenched political control, dominance in single-member districts, and suppression of genuine opposition. While prediction market odds have fluctuated, dropping to 71% on one platform, this may reflect trading dynamics rather than actual risk; the broader consensus across reporting and structural factors supports a higher true probability. Adjusting for market inefficiencies and the near-certainty of state-backed electoral advantage, the best estimate is 85%.
United Russia has strong institutional advantages, including control of administrative resources and limited opposition participation, and is favored by prediction markets with high probabilities. However, there are some potential risks like late Ukraine conflict escalations, but they are considered improbable.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
timeout after 30000ms
Current prediction markets, which aggregate real-money trader beliefs and have a strong track record of accuracy, assign about a 17-19% probability that WTI Crude Oil will hit $95 or higher in August 2026. Recent trends show WTI prices in the low-to-mid $80s with some downside pressure due to increased supply and softer demand, making a $95 spike less likely but still possible due to potential geopolitical or demand shocks.
Current market sentiment and recent geopolitical developments, such as the de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, have significantly reduced the supply-disruption premium on oil prices. With OPEC+ increasing output and global inventories rising, the likelihood of WTI Crude Oil spiking to $95 in August 2026 is considered low, consistent with current prediction market estimates.
Prediction markets like Polymarket and Worldstreet show a consistent probability range of 17-22% for WTI Crude Oil to hit $95 in August 2026. These markets aggregate real-time information and trader sentiment, which is a reliable indicator. Additionally, the recent trend shows WTI prices settling in the low-to-mid $80s in July 2026, suggesting a significant upward movement to $95 is less likely but not impossible.
Prediction markets such as Polymarket and Worldstreet show implied probabilities between 17.5% and 22% for WTI hitting $95 in August 2026 [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-august-2026), [predictmarketcap.com](https://predictmarketcap.com/markets/will-wti-reach-95-in-august-2026). These reflect real-money trader consensus. Recent de-escalation in Middle East tensions and OPEC+ output increases have lowered oil prices into the $80s, reducing the likelihood of a sharp spike to $95 [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-july-2026). However, geopolitical risks or supply disruptions could still trigger a short-term surge. I adjust slightly above the market consensus to account for tail risk, but remain cautious given current fundamentals.
Based on Polymarket data, the current probability of WTI hitting $95 in August 2026 is 17.5%.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Prediction markets overwhelmingly price a 25 bps cut at ~100% and a 25 bps increase at only ~5-6% (e.g., Polymarket shows '25 bps decrease' at 100%, and separate markets for a 25 bps increase trade at ~5-6% YES). Recent economic data (strong June jobs report, unemployment at 4.1%) and Fed commentary (Kashkari expressing uncertainty, projections of only 1-3 cuts in 2025) point toward a cut or hold, not a hike. The consensus among traders and analysts is that a rate increase is highly unlikely given the current easing bias and inflation trajectory.
Current prediction markets, including Polymarket and Kresmion, price the probability of a 25 bps rate increase after the September 2026 Fed meeting at around 28%. This reflects a consensus that the Fed is more likely to hold rates steady or cut rather than increase, given recent economic data and Fed communications. The market's collective wisdom, backed by significant trading volume and historical accuracy, supports a low but non-negligible chance of a rate hike.
Current market data from prediction platforms like [kresmion.com](https://kresmion.com/odds/will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-september-2026-meeting-649) indicates that the probability of a 25 bps rate increase in September 2026 is approximately 28%. This reflects a consensus that the Federal Reserve is more likely to maintain current rates or potentially cut them, rather than initiate a rate hike, given the prevailing economic outlook and uncertainty regarding future inflation and labor market data.
Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kresmion currently price the probability of a 25 bps interest rate increase by the Fed in September 2026 at around 28%. This reflects the consensus view based on recent economic data and Fed communications, which suggest a cautious approach to rate adjustments.
As of August 17, 2026, prediction markets such as Polymarket reflect a 28% probability of a 25 bps rate increase after the September 2026 FOMC meeting, down from recent highs of 60% in July [kresmion.com](https://kresmion.com/odds/will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-september-2026-meeting-649). This decline suggests growing market consensus that the Fed will hold rates steady, influenced by stable inflation trends and moderate economic growth. The current pricing reflects a well-calibrated assessment based on recent economic data and Fed commentary.
Polymarket and Kresmion data indicate low probability of a 25 bps rate increase in September 2026.
Mean of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 6/6 valid model forecasts.
timeout after 30000ms
Prediction markets such as Polymarket currently price the probability of no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting at around 71-74%. These markets aggregate the collective knowledge and expectations of traders, reflecting a consensus that the Fed is likely to maintain rates. While economic conditions and Fed communications could influence the decision, the strong market consensus and historical accuracy of such markets support a probability near 72%.
Current prediction market data from [polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-september), [kresmion.com](https://kresmion.com/odds/will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-september-2026-meeting-615), and [polyrama.io](https://polyrama.io/markets/will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-september-2026-meeting-615) consistently shows a high probability (ranging from 71% to 74%) that the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates during the September 2026 meeting. This reflects market sentiment that economic conditions, including inflation and labor market data, do not necessitate a rate adjustment at this specific time.
Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kresmion show a strong consensus (71-74%) that there will be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting. This aligns with recent economic data, such as the strong June jobs report and the Fed's cautious stance on rate cuts, as indicated by Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other officials. The market's high accuracy and the Fed's historical behavior support this probability.
Prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kresmion show the probability of no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting priced between 71% and 74% [polyrama.io](https://polyrama.io/markets/will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-september-2026-meeting-615) [kresmion.com](https://kresmion.com/odds/will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-september-2026-meeting-615). These markets aggregate real-time trader expectations and have historically demonstrated strong predictive accuracy. While economic conditions could shift, current sentiment reflects a high likelihood of rate stability, supported by recent Fed communications emphasizing data dependence and caution around inflation.
Polymarket odds show a high probability of no change, with current prices around 71-74% as of August 2026. The market focuses on the FOMC statement and economic data.
Mean of 5/6 valid model forecasts.
Logit blend: 0.8 x market price + 0.2 x consensus of 5/6 valid model forecasts.