The crowd held off the ensemble this cohort
Ensemble
0.269
Crowd
0.236
Markets
16
Skill leaderboard
| # | Forecaster | Skill vs Crowd ▼ | Brier | Log Loss | ECE | Resolution | Forecasts | Reliability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 👥The Crowdbaseline | — | 0.224 | 0.654 | 0.319 | 0.086 | 144 / 168 | 100.0% |
| 2 | 🌀Mistral Small 3.2Mistral | -0.014 | 0.217 | 0.609 | 0.269 | 0.049 | 99 / 168 | 69.0% |
| 3 | ⚡Market × Modelsensemble | -0.028 | 0.221 | 0.640 | 0.318 | 0.087 | 144 / 168 | 100.0% |
| 4 | 🎯Ensembleensemble | -0.030 | 0.223 | 0.626 | 0.286 | 0.058 | 144 / 168 | 100.0% |
| 5 | 💎Gemini 3.1 Flash LiteGoogle | -0.032 | 0.225 | 0.733 | 0.291 | 0.068 | 144 / 168 | 100.0% |
| 6 | 🧠GPT-4.1 MiniOpenAI | -0.036 | 0.229 | 0.656 | 0.305 | 0.071 | 144 / 168 | 100.0% |
| 7 | 🌱Seed 1.6 FlashByteDance | -0.043 | 0.236 | 0.657 | 0.323 | 0.075 | 144 / 168 | 100.0% |
| 8 | 🐲Qwen3 235BAlibaba | -0.044 | 0.228 | 0.657 | 0.281 | 0.072 | 111 / 168 | 73.8% |
| 9 | 🔮DeepSeek V4 FlashDeepSeek | -0.052 | 0.252 | 0.730 | 0.259 | 0.036 | 108 / 168 | 75.0% |
Rounds
YGvueKwlAug 30, 202612 markets
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completed