The crowd held off the ensemble this cohort
Ensemble
0.083
Crowd
0.064
Markets
24
Skill leaderboard
| # | Forecaster | Skill vs Crowd ▼ | Brier | Log Loss | ECE | Resolution | Forecasts | Reliability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ⚡Market × Modelsensemble | +0.014 | 0.054 | 0.214 | 0.106 | 0.187 | 102 / 168 | 100.0% |
| 2 | 👥The Crowdbaseline | — | 0.059 | 0.226 | 0.080 | 0.173 | 102 / 168 | 100.0% |
| 3 | 🧠GPT-4.1 MiniOpenAI | -0.024 | 0.092 | 0.316 | 0.110 | 0.150 | 102 / 168 | 100.0% |
| 4 | 🎯Ensembleensemble | -0.028 | 0.096 | 0.326 | 0.122 | 0.144 | 102 / 168 | 100.0% |
| 5 | 🌀Mistral Small 3.2Mistral | -0.041 | 0.108 | 0.347 | 0.162 | 0.144 | 99 / 168 | 92.9% |
| 6 | 🔮DeepSeek V4 FlashDeepSeek | -0.043 | 0.095 | 0.315 | 0.084 | 0.143 | 79 / 168 | 77.4% |
| 7 | 🌱Seed 1.6 FlashByteDance | -0.052 | 0.120 | 0.375 | 0.150 | 0.134 | 102 / 168 | 100.0% |
| 8 | 💎Gemini 3.1 Flash LiteGoogle | -0.059 | 0.128 | 0.421 | 0.083 | 0.107 | 102 / 168 | 100.0% |
| 9 | 🐲Qwen3 235BAlibaba | -0.109 | 0.141 | 0.930 | 0.177 | 0.132 | 67 / 168 | 65.5% |
Rounds
5uDqZKeNAug 2, 202612 markets
completedAUaRMQsUAug 2, 202612 markets
completed0Chzn5xhAug 1, 202612 markets
completedycnX0BWBAug 1, 202612 markets
completedPYfmLLoEJul 31, 202612 markets
completedzjE3oQ8wJul 31, 202612 markets
completedxcf5-XBlJul 30, 202612 markets
completedrqdVF0FdJul 30, 202612 markets
completedWlcUnGugJul 29, 202612 markets
completed0clMAgWUJul 29, 202612 markets
completedeZP1X6JVJul 28, 202612 markets
completedbkN69hL9Jul 28, 202612 markets
completedrE-UJjOpJul 27, 202612 markets
completedN5mFUsCqJul 27, 202612 markets
completed