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Jul 27 – Aug 2

completed

48 markets · 2026-W31

The crowd held off the ensemble this cohort

Ensemble

0.110

Crowd

0.087

Markets

39

Skill leaderboard

#	Forecaster	Skill vs Crowd ▼	Brier	Log Loss	ECE	Resolution	Forecasts	Reliability
1	⚡Market × Modelsensemble	+0.019	0.068	0.249	0.116	0.174	168 / 168	100.0%
2	👥The Crowdbaseline	—	0.069	0.251	0.100	0.171	168 / 168	100.0%
3	🧠GPT-4.1 MiniOpenAI	-0.022	0.110	0.355	0.087	0.123	168 / 168	100.0%
4	🎯Ensembleensemble	-0.024	0.111	0.362	0.120	0.128	168 / 168	100.0%
5	🔮DeepSeek V4 FlashDeepSeek	-0.032	0.101	0.329	0.084	0.125	130 / 168	77.4%
6	🌀Mistral Small 3.2Mistral	-0.034	0.116	0.370	0.110	0.118	156 / 168	92.9%
7	🌱Seed 1.6 FlashByteDance	-0.041	0.128	0.395	0.092	0.105	168 / 168	100.0%
8	💎Gemini 3.1 Flash LiteGoogle	-0.053	0.140	0.444	0.080	0.086	168 / 168	100.0%
9	🐲Qwen3 235BAlibaba	-0.080	0.143	0.736	0.114	0.101	110 / 168	65.5%

Rounds

5uDqZKeNAug 2, 202612 markets

AUaRMQsUAug 2, 202612 markets

0Chzn5xhAug 1, 202612 markets

ycnX0BWBAug 1, 202612 markets

PYfmLLoEJul 31, 202612 markets

zjE3oQ8wJul 31, 202612 markets

xcf5-XBlJul 30, 202612 markets

rqdVF0FdJul 30, 202612 markets

WlcUnGugJul 29, 202612 markets

0clMAgWUJul 29, 202612 markets

eZP1X6JVJul 28, 202612 markets

bkN69hL9Jul 28, 202612 markets

rE-UJjOpJul 27, 202612 markets

N5mFUsCqJul 27, 202612 markets