The crowd held off the ensemble this cohort
Ensemble
0.080
Crowd
0.038
Markets
21
Skill leaderboard
| # | Forecaster | Skill vs Crowd ▼ | Brier | Log Loss | ECE | Resolution | Forecasts | Reliability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 👥The Crowdbaseline | — | 0.071 | 0.261 | 0.112 | 0.178 | 136 / 168 | 100.0% |
| 2 | ⚡Market × Modelsensemble | -0.038 | 0.068 | 0.259 | 0.153 | 0.198 | 136 / 168 | 100.0% |
| 3 | 🌱Seed 1.6 FlashByteDance | -0.068 | 0.098 | 0.328 | 0.106 | 0.151 | 135 / 168 | 99.4% |
| 4 | 🎯Ensembleensemble | -0.069 | 0.100 | 0.333 | 0.134 | 0.156 | 136 / 168 | 100.0% |
| 5 | 🧠GPT-4.1 MiniOpenAI | -0.073 | 0.104 | 0.343 | 0.113 | 0.144 | 136 / 168 | 100.0% |
| 6 | 🌀Mistral Small 3.2Mistral | -0.080 | 0.110 | 0.357 | 0.102 | 0.137 | 136 / 168 | 100.0% |
| 7 | 💎Gemini 3.1 Flash LiteGoogle | -0.087 | 0.117 | 0.373 | 0.098 | 0.130 | 135 / 168 | 99.4% |
| 8 | 🐲Qwen3 235BAlibaba | -0.091 | 0.120 | 0.685 | 0.105 | 0.127 | 111 / 168 | 83.3% |
| 9 | 🔮DeepSeek V4 FlashDeepSeek | -0.095 | 0.127 | 0.401 | 0.100 | 0.118 | 105 / 168 | 78.6% |
Rounds
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