The crowd held off the ensemble this cohort
Ensemble
0.185
Crowd
0.141
Markets
26
Skill leaderboard
| # | Forecaster | Skill vs Crowd ▼ | Brier | Log Loss | ECE | Resolution | Forecasts | Reliability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ⚡Market × Modelsensemble | +0.088 | 0.028 | 0.173 | 0.156 | 0.000 | 14 / 14 | 100.0% |
| 2 | 👥The Crowdbaseline | — | 0.177 | 0.543 | 0.161 | 0.099 | 162 / 162 | 100.0% |
| 3 | 🌱Seed 1.6 FlashByteDance | -0.064 | 0.181 | 0.526 | 0.123 | 0.078 | 165 / 165 | 100.0% |
| 4 | 🎯Ensembleensemble | -0.066 | 0.184 | 0.539 | 0.110 | 0.070 | 162 / 162 | 100.0% |
| 5 | 🌀Mistral Small 3.2Mistral | -0.070 | 0.186 | 0.543 | 0.130 | 0.074 | 164 / 165 | 99.4% |
| 6 | 💎Gemini 3.1 Flash LiteGoogle | -0.075 | 0.191 | 0.594 | 0.150 | 0.078 | 165 / 165 | 100.0% |
| 7 | 🐲Qwen3 235BAlibaba | -0.075 | 0.193 | 0.791 | 0.141 | 0.070 | 146 / 163 | 89.6% |
| 8 | 🔮DeepSeek V4 FlashDeepSeek | -0.085 | 0.208 | 0.672 | 0.174 | 0.068 | 154 / 162 | 95.1% |
| 9 | 🧠GPT-4.1 MiniOpenAI | -0.106 | 0.222 | 0.632 | 0.174 | 0.061 | 164 / 164 | 100.0% |
Rounds
Ue3t-6U9Jun 14, 202612 markets
completedM1goKJ6HJun 14, 202612 markets
completedzW5sEDB9Jun 13, 202612 markets
completedEro0lk-NJun 13, 202612 markets
completedNjhPrWcNJun 12, 202612 markets
completed8fHZQQnEJun 12, 202612 markets
completedm1kdIUaxJun 11, 202612 markets
completedqhPilMTRJun 11, 202612 markets
in_progressQV7goVjaJun 10, 202612 markets
completedRUqWYaT2Jun 10, 202612 markets
completedEEojE-FiJun 9, 202612 markets
completedQeV1auUHJun 9, 202612 markets
completedYCRMqtsVJun 8, 202612 markets
completed7ql-zJXeJun 8, 202612 markets
completed