The crowd held off the ensemble this cohort
Ensemble
0.288
Crowd
0.213
Markets
13
Skill leaderboard
| # | Forecaster | Skill vs Crowd ▼ | Brier | Log Loss | ECE | Resolution | Forecasts | Reliability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 👥The Crowdbaseline | — | 0.298 | 0.876 | 0.370 | 0.097 | 87 / 162 | 100.0% |
| 2 | 🌀Mistral Small 3.2Mistral | -0.122 | 0.293 | 0.819 | 0.318 | 0.040 | 87 / 165 | 99.4% |
| 3 | 🌱Seed 1.6 FlashByteDance | -0.133 | 0.304 | 0.835 | 0.340 | 0.051 | 87 / 165 | 100.0% |
| 4 | 🎯Ensembleensemble | -0.135 | 0.305 | 0.849 | 0.333 | 0.035 | 87 / 162 | 100.0% |
| 5 | 🐲Qwen3 235BAlibaba | -0.156 | 0.333 | 1.374 | 0.346 | 0.034 | 75 / 163 | 89.6% |
| 6 | 💎Gemini 3.1 Flash LiteGoogle | -0.161 | 0.332 | 0.990 | 0.351 | 0.034 | 87 / 165 | 100.0% |
| 7 | 🔮DeepSeek V4 FlashDeepSeek | -0.183 | 0.358 | 1.120 | 0.395 | 0.037 | 84 / 162 | 95.1% |
| 8 | 🧠GPT-4.1 MiniOpenAI | -0.192 | 0.363 | 0.992 | 0.352 | 0.015 | 87 / 164 | 100.0% |
Rounds
Ue3t-6U9Jun 14, 202612 markets
completedM1goKJ6HJun 14, 202612 markets
completedzW5sEDB9Jun 13, 202612 markets
completedEro0lk-NJun 13, 202612 markets
completedNjhPrWcNJun 12, 202612 markets
completed8fHZQQnEJun 12, 202612 markets
completedm1kdIUaxJun 11, 202612 markets
completedqhPilMTRJun 11, 202612 markets
in_progressQV7goVjaJun 10, 202612 markets
completedRUqWYaT2Jun 10, 202612 markets
completedEEojE-FiJun 9, 202612 markets
completedQeV1auUHJun 9, 202612 markets
completedYCRMqtsVJun 8, 202612 markets
completed7ql-zJXeJun 8, 202612 markets
completed